[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

do you guys expect another rise in price soon?

Some time (~1-2 days) ago, I put the probabilities such:

30% we are below 165k
30% we are between 165-250k
30% we are between 250-500k
10% we are above 500k

...in 3 weeks.

So, no. I think it is more probable that we fall. However, the rise has so much more upside than the fall has downside, that I am continuing to buy.

As the markets are looking now bearish, I wonder what is the minimal point it can go (assuming nothing major technical and fundamental black swans are not coming - basically eliminating the scenario to go to 0)?

The number of bitcoins in sell orders has declined drastically in 1 week showing to us there is not that much eagerness to buy Moneros these days anymore.
Perhaps the guy who sold his Moneros on the vid was right....? Obviously he could have got better price for his coins but he might have made a right move...?

I am wondering if I should readjust my buy order to even lower.

I'm assuming whoever is doing the majority of buying doesn't want a pump inflating the price too much and limiting their accumulation. So based on that assumption, I would guess that this is a retracement and the price will bump and grind its way up to a price the accumulators are happy with, unless another large investor, or investors, gets involved or un-involved. I just like that it appears that more investors than traders are buying based on the action not getting too pump and dumpy.

Vid guy just wanted to hurt XMR or Risto--sad.

1. "The minimal point" The possible outcome spectrum includes cases that it will fail totally in any short or longer period of time, with small or high probability. The recent rise has lowered the the probability of total loss from market related reasons, but done hardly anything to the technology-related total loss. Instead of asking, how low it can go (to which the only honest answer is zero), some kind of lower probability threshold should be agreed upon, eg. "Going how low is less than a 5% probability in 30 days" and then remembering that we already experienced such an event last year, because the probabilities add up quickly (if you flip a d20 daily for months, it will eventually show a "1").

That said, there is a support in 180-200k which currently seems that we will orderly retreat to. Below that the whole trading area from 93-180k is a support as well. So the prospect of breaking 100k from the upside is rather remote, meaning that the uptrend is a reality in a great majority of cases, regardless what happens to the price as long as it stays above my announcement level (115k).

2. "Numbers in bids/asks have moved". This does not testify to anything except the manipulator cleverness and should be discarded as a piece of evidence of anything. Trades, on the other hand seem real, and I have not smelled trading-between-own-accounts during my career there. (I know this better than most because I know the trades where I was a counterparty, leaving much fewer possibilities for foul players to paint the tape with the few large trades where I was not).

3. "Whether you should readjust the buy lower." Depends 100% on what your objectives are.

4. "generalizethis' analysis". Correct, imo.

[TrueCryptonaire]

do you guys expect another rise in price soon?

Some time (~1-2 days) ago, I put the probabilities such:

30% we are below 165k
30% we are between 165-250k
30% we are between 250-500k
10% we are above 500k

...in 3 weeks.

So, no. I think it is more probable that we fall. However, the rise has so much more upside than the fall has downside, that I am continuing to buy.

As the markets are looking now bearish, I wonder what is the minimal point it can go (assuming nothing major technical and fundamental black swans are not coming - basically eliminating the scenario to go to 0)?

The number of bitcoins in sell orders has declined drastically in 1 week showing to us there is not that much eagerness to buy Moneros these days anymore.
Perhaps the guy who sold his Moneros on the vid was right....? Obviously he could have got better price for his coins but he might have made a right move...?

I am wondering if I should readjust my buy order to even lower.

I'm assuming whoever is doing the majority of buying doesn't want a pump inflating the price too much and limiting their accumulation. So based on that assumption, I would guess that this is a retracement and the price will bump and grind its way up to a price the accumulators are happy with, unless another large investor, or investors, gets involved or un-involved. I just like that it appears that more investors than traders are buying based on the action not getting too pump and dumpy.

Vid guy just wanted to hurt XMR or Risto--sad.

1. "The minimal point" The possible outcome spectrum includes cases that it will fail totally in any short or longer period of time, with small or high probability. The recent rise has lowered the the probability of total loss from market related reasons, but done hardly anything to the technology-related total loss. Instead of asking, how low it can go (to which the only honest answer is zero), some kind of lower probability threshold should be agreed upon, eg. "Going how low is less than a 5% probability in 30 days" and then remembering that we already experienced such an event last year, because the probabilities add up quickly (if you flip a d20 daily for months, it will eventually show a "1").

That said, there is a support in 180-200k which currently seems that we will orderly retreat to. Below that the whole trading area from 93-180k is a support as well. So the prospect of breaking 100k from the upside is rather remote, meaning that the uptrend is a reality in a great majority of cases, regardless what happens to the price as long as it stays above my announcement level (115k).

2. "Numbers in bids/asks have moved". This does not testify to anything except the manipulator cleverness and should be discarded as a piece of evidence of anything. Trades, on the other hand seem real, and I have not smelled trading-between-own-accounts during my career there. (I know this better than most because I know the trades where I was a counterparty, leaving much fewer possibilities for foul players to paint the tape with the few large trades where I was not).

3. "Whether you should readjust the buy lower." Depends 100% on what your objectives are.

4. "generalizethis' analysis". Correct, imo.

I think measuring the bid and ask books is quite good sign if there is a desire to buy or sell the coin.
That being said, it is the easiest and probably the cheapest way to manipulate the markets.
On the other hand, being it mere manipulation or not, this has been pretty good tool in predicting if the coin is in bull or bear trend. On the other hand, it is not the way one should try to predict the turning point since in turning point the bid-ask-ratio start to move to the opposite direction.

I am open with my goal: by trolling I try to manipulate other participants in the markets to readjust their buy orders.
Also if your hands are strong, it might be a good thing for the long term to reap as many coins from the weak hands as possible. Typically you are more efficient in this goal by buying cheaper rather than more expensive.

[GreekBitcoin]

rpietila , have you ever tried to communicate with BTC-e about adding XMR? Has anybody else done that? I noticed they delisted xpm,trc and ftc because of low volume but i am certain xmr could have a fairly good volume once listed there. I also know that they have told before that they certainly are not going to add DRK but have they ever talked about xmr?

[cAPSLOCK]

do you guys expect another rise in price soon?

Some time (~1-2 days) ago, I put the probabilities such:

30% we are below 165k
30% we are between 165-250k
30% we are between 250-500k
10% we are above 500k

...in 3 weeks.

So, no. I think it is more probable that we fall. However, the rise has so much more upside than the fall has downside, that I am continuing to buy.

There is of course the "out of the blue" possibility that Darkcoin may take another "Dash" to the downside. Darkcoin still has over 3x the capitalization of Monero and the markets seem to respond to any drop in DRK by buying XMR. I say anyone in the XMR/XBT market still needs to play very close attention to DRK/XBT especially if they are planning on buying XMR.
 
Edit: One of the reasons why I was not surprised by the recent XMR upward move is because I am watching DRK closely.

I am also watching it closely.  I began by wondering why there is so much action in that coin with what seem like obvious achilles heel issues (insta/premine, semi-centralized mixing) as well as being a bit overcomplicated.

I thought maybe after the big drop after the rebranding there might be a dead cat bounce, but I was too chicken to buy as I was not sure we'd see a bounce, especially with what looked like artificial whale support.  Turns out I am glad I didn't.

But to our topic.  It will certainly benefit the monero blockchain if DRK continues to lose steam.  Still, the network effect there is strong.

[mmortal03]

rpietila , have you ever tried to communicate with BTC-e about adding XMR? Has anybody else done that? I noticed they delisted xpm,trc and ftc because of low volume but i am certain xmr could have a fairly good volume once listed there. I also know that they have told before that they certainly are not going to add DRK but have they ever talked about xmr?

Getting on ShapeShift should also be a priority. We are the highest on the following list to not be on there: http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/views/filter-non-mineable-and-premined/

[dEBRUYNE]

do you guys expect another rise in price soon?

Some time (~1-2 days) ago, I put the probabilities such:

30% we are below 165k
30% we are between 165-250k
30% we are between 250-500k
10% we are above 500k

...in 3 weeks.

So, no. I think it is more probable that we fall. However, the rise has so much more upside than the fall has downside, that I am continuing to buy.

There is of course the "out of the blue" possibility that Darkcoin may take another "Dash" to the downside. Darkcoin still has over 3x the capitalization of Monero and the markets seem to respond to any drop in DRK by buying XMR. I say anyone in the XMR/XBT market still needs to play very close attention to DRK/XBT especially if they are planning on buying XMR.
 
Edit: One of the reasons why I was not surprised by the recent XMR upward move is because I am watching DRK closely.

I am also watching it closely.  I began by wondering why there is so much action in that coin with what seem like obvious achilles heel issues (insta/premine, semi-centralized mixing) as well as being a bit overcomplicated.

I thought maybe after the big drop after the rebranding there might be a dead cat bounce, but I was too chicken to buy as I was not sure we'd see a bounce, especially with what looked like artificial whale support.  Turns out I am glad I didn't.

But to our topic.  It will certainly benefit the monero blockchain if DRK continues to lose steam.  Still, the network effect there is strong.

I was thinking about this a little bit today after I read ArticMine's post. I came to the conclusion that us getting added to cryptsy will make it a whole lot easier for Darkcoin users/investors to convert their Darkcoins to Moneroj (because most of the trading is done there).

[Hueristic]

do you guys expect another rise in price soon?

Some time (~1-2 days) ago, I put the probabilities such:

30% we are below 165k
30% we are between 165-250k
30% we are between 250-500k
10% we are above 500k

...in 3 weeks.

So, no. I think it is more probable that we fall. However, the rise has so much more upside than the fall has downside, that I am continuing to buy.

As the markets are looking now bearish, I wonder what is the minimal point it can go (assuming nothing major technical and fundamental black swans are not coming - basically eliminating the scenario to go to 0)?

The number of bitcoins in sell orders has declined drastically in 1 week showing to us there is not that much eagerness to buy Moneros these days anymore.
Perhaps the guy who sold his Moneros on the vid was right....? Obviously he could have got better price for his coins but he might have made a right move...?

I am wondering if I should readjust my buy order to even lower.

Back to trying to drive the price down again I see. How much profit did you just take? Need to replenish the stock?

I'm assuming whoever is doing the majority of buying doesn't want a pump inflating the price too much and limiting their accumulation. So based on that assumption, I would guess that this is a retracement and the price will bump and grind its way up to a price the accumulators are happy with, unless another large investor, or investors, gets involved or un-involved. I just like that it appears that more investors than traders are buying based on the action not getting too pump and dumpy.

Vid guy just wanted to hurt XMR or Risto--sad.

Not Sad, That was fucking GREAT! That retard's asshole must be burning now!

I am open with my goal: by trolling I try to manipulate other participants in the markets to readjust their buy orders.
Also if your hands are strong, it might be a good thing for the long term to reap as many coins from the weak hands as possible. Typically you are more efficient in this goal by buying cheaper rather than more expensive.

This has certainly not gone unnoticed by those that monitor this thread. As I already responded this very thing to your earlier post. So now you will continue to attempt to sway the n00bs (which is a waste of effort IMO) or change direction and try for a Reactance, neither of which will effect the market. You hold no sway. I suggest you start a new account or switch to a puppet and start over.

...
I am also watching it closely.  I began by wondering why there is so much action in that coin with what seem like obvious achilles heel issues (insta/premine, semi-centralized mixing) as well as being a bit overcomplicated.

I thought maybe after the big drop after the rebranding there might be a dead cat bounce, but I was too chicken to buy as I was not sure we'd see a bounce, especially with what looked like artificial whale support.  Turns out I am glad I didn't.

But to our topic.  It will certainly benefit the monero blockchain if DRK continues to lose steam.  Still, the network effect there is strong.

I see those DRK holders that were smart enough to hold for the bounce will (and probably have been) be diversifying into XMR as the choices are limited and there is no question on the most stable and qualified DEV team of the bunch. Unfortunately for them the hands are strong in this coin so their only choice to get in at a reasonable price is a slow accumulation. As I posted earlier I see the bottom of the profit takers to be .0021 and then the strong hands will stalemate the emissions as the new blood gives us the steady increase this coin will enjoy until all lost gains are seen. I don't see any variation in this long term unless a truly unforeseen event occurs such a a true exploit is found which after all the BCX fud with everyone and their brother looking at the code is tantamount to nil.


So Anyway my hope is that tonight I triple up on the poker table and can buy in at .0021 again for the slow rise. If I am wrong and the stars all align and the price skyrockets then I have made a grave error and will be left out and conversely if someone else with 100k decides to dump (Inconceivable -- and I do know what that word means. ) then I will gleefully grab all I can.



Now back on the subject of large holders, I'm going to take a stab that that 100k came from mintpal? I've asked before but have not got an answer, Is there any breakdown of the MP coins distribution? And does anyone know or would like to share what amounts the actual whales hold?


Also will the retard who did the dump please stand up and raise their hand so we can all applaud.

[dEBRUYNE]

Crossposting for awareness:

Poll: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=985422.0

Bump. Please vote. We've always done really well on these polls. This one not so much.

[dreamspark]

Crossposting for awareness:

Poll: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=985422.0

Bump. Please vote. We've always done really well on these polls. This one not so much.

What a joke though, they're including coins which are basically dead. Maxcoin 

It's so hard to write a book like that with the speed that half these cryptos come and go with.

[blacky90]

starting to think to sell my xmr

[Hueristic]

Crossposting for awareness:

Poll: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=985422.0

Bump. Please vote. We've always done really well on these polls. This one not so much.

What a joke though, they're including coins which are basically dead. Maxcoin 

It's so hard to write a book like that with the speed that half these cryptos come and go with.

I voted but IIRC that book or another one (can't recall) was just a way for the Author to gather alts for good reviews in his book. I may be off base but I remember one of those scams going on in the past.

[smooth]

starting to think to sell all my xmr

don't think, do.

Crossposting for awareness:

Poll: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=985422.0

Bump. Please vote. We've always done really well on these polls. This one not so much.

It'll be hard to beat the sockpuppet accounts, which the monero community (fortunately) lacks.

Yes you are right. We will always lose to those, but at least we can put in a good showing. Most people have some idea that sock puppets exist and can't be trusted.

[smooth]

sold all my xmr already to buy more drk

Enough. Add some substantive content to your posts or go away

[jehst]

sold all my xmr already to buy more drk

Enough. Add some substantive content to your posts or go away

Lol, you speak to it as if it's a non-shill/sockpuppet.

[ArticMine]

sold all my xmr already to buy more drk

The DRK/XBT market is certainly worth watching. There is a concerted attempt to support the price at 0.01 with a sizable hidden wall at 0.010001 on Bitfinex which I estimate to be at least 50 - 100 XBT at one point. This is "protecting" the visible wall of over 50 XBT. at 0.01. We have seen over 20000 DRK sold into this support in the last 24 hours. Here is my take: Eventually this will give way (no one will support a coin that wants to go down for ever) and DRK/XBT will break 0.01 sharply on the downside. If this happens watch out for a sudden and sharp upward movement in XMR/XBT.

[smooth]

sold all my xmr already to buy more drk

Enough. Add some substantive content to your posts or go away

Lol, you speak to it as if it's a non-shill/sockpuppet.

I don't expect a real conversation but since I expect the same result I prefer to remind the shill about the thread rules rather than the other alternative which was just deleting it (and then be accused of bias against anti-XMR points of view).

[jehst]

sold all my xmr already to buy more drk

The DRK/XBT market is certainly worth watching. There is a concerted attempt to support the price at 0.01 with a sizable hidden wall at 0.010001 on Bitfinex which I estimate to be at least 50 - 100 XBT at one point. This is "protecting" the visible wall of over 50 XBT. at 0.01. We have seen over 20000 DRK sold into this support in the last 24 hours. Here is my take: Eventually this will give way (no one will support a coin that wants to go down for ever) and DRK/XBT will break 0.01 sharply on the downside. If this happens watch out for a sudden and sharp upward movement in XMR/XBT.

Thanks for this info dood. I can't bear to spend more than 10 minutes a month paying attention to DRK developments.

[hodlmybtc]

Let's get back to speculation

Poloniex 6h chart



Price is consolidating between 0.0022 and 0.0024 which is right around the 38.2% and 50% fib levels of the rise between 0.00165 and 0.00283.

RSI have fallen back to around 50, we have been in the overbought zone from this year's top down to the 0.0024 level.

Since we're in a bull market I'd expect Monero to rise in the coming week, we could also test some lower levels since the orderbook is pretty thin at the moment, a big buy or a big sell can move the price quite a bit.

Currently ~4000 XMR buy sends the price up 11%, ~4000 XMR sell sends the price down 2.5%

[Hueristic]

sold all my xmr already to buy more drk

The DRK/XBT market is certainly worth watching. There is a concerted attempt to support the price at 0.01 with a sizable hidden wall at 0.010001 on Bitfinex which I estimate to be at least 50 - 100 XBT at one point. This is "protecting" the visible wall of over 50 XBT. at 0.01. We have seen over 20000 DRK sold into this support in the last 24 hours. Here is my take: Eventually this will give way (no one will support a coin that wants to go down for ever) and DRK/XBT will break 0.01 sharply on the downside. If this happens watch out for a sudden and sharp upward movement in XMR/XBT.

Thanks for this info dood. I can't bear to spend more than 10 minutes a month paying attention to DRK developments.

If only they had something, umm like a digest or something.

[ArticMine]

Let's get back to speculation

Poloniex 6h chart



Price is consolidating between 0.0022 and 0.0024 which is right around the 38.2% and 50% fib levels of the rise between 0.00165 and 0.00283.

RSI have fallen back to around 50, we have been in the overbought zone from this year's top down to the 0.0024 level.

Since we're in a bull market I'd expect Monero to rise in the coming week, we could also test some lower levels since the orderbook is pretty thin at the moment, a big buy or a big sell can move the price quite a bit.

Currently ~4000 XMR buy sends the price up 11%, ~4000 XMR sell sends the price down 2.5%

The last upward move had a 24 hour period, with over 200,000 XMR in volume. 4000 XMR is nothing. By the way DRK/XBT has just hit 0.01 on Bitfinex. All I can say is that if you are short XMR in any way ignore DRK at you peril. I do not normally focus so much on another coin, but the situation in DRK is such that it can easily set off a buying panic in XMR.