[XMR] Monero Speculation

[saddambitcoin]

If the price goes up from here, I will dump some coins.

I recommend calming down.
The emission is still pretty high (around 17 k per day).
The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that.

Still, ~17000 daily emission * 0.30 USD per XMR = only $5,100

I guess the price is fair, all you can do with it right now is gamble. Can't wait until the future comes and I can order pizza & drugs online, pay with Monero and have it delivered to my doorstep by drone.

[TrueCryptonaire]

If the price goes up from here, I will dump some coins.

I recommend calming down.
The emission is still pretty high (around 17 k per day).
The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that.

Still, ~17000 daily emission * 0.30 USD per XMR = only $5,100

I guess the price is fair, all you can do with it right now is gamble. Can't wait until the future comes and I can order pizza & drugs online, pay with Monero and have it delivered to my doorstep by drone.

You are now talking about the future which is long long time from now.
Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.
There is very little interest from the whales to buy Moneros these days.
The odds are that Monero will go down from the current price.
The trendline since summer 2014 (June 21st) looks simply terrible.
All the way down with lower high points and the coin has lost most of its value both against bitcoin and against usd.

[smooth]

The trendline since summer 2014 (June 21st) looks simply terrible.
All the way down with lower high points and the coin has lost most of its value both against bitcoin and against usd.

The trend was definitively broken around December 23. Now there is arguably a new slower downtrend of lower highs, but it is hard to make that case based on only two data points, and since December 23 we have also seen a higher low, so no clear indicator here at all.

Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.

Somewhat agree. Some members still talk about continuing to average down so that does support the price.

Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing second generation of Monero community members who weren't around for any of the early history and only now want to learn about the coin. That is a very healthy sign.

[GingerAle]

^^^ yeop thats me.

[saddambitcoin]

Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.

Not everybody. I just hit a significant milestone in my personal XMR amount, and I consider that my savings. Now I can buy Monero and have fun with it, by spending it at #tippero blackjack games, living a luxurious lifestyle in CryptoKingdom, investing at Cryptocoins-Dice. A currency should be fun to use, and now you can use it and live without fear of being tracked down like Ross Ulbricht.

Imagine the next few months, the database comes to life, GUI, OpenBazaar and the Monero economy will be fruitful. Monero is a currency I personally like to use, not just to speculate on. Bitcoin is dirty, leaking personal info everytime you use it.

[thelibertycap]

If the price goes up from here, I will dump some coins.

I recommend calming down.
The emission is still pretty high (around 17 k per day).
The big price increase will take place most likely after 6-12 months from now so we have plenty of time to buy coins until that.

The most important driver is sentiment. 17k coins is nothing if things start to move.
What's more - look at Bitcoin, if it makes new lows many people will buy a lot more coins and have ammo for xmr.
I never thought I would buy Bitcoin again with fresh fiat but seeing coins cheaply @$160 made me change my mind quickly. I'll be lining up for around @$120 again.

Based on your simple analysis I am pretty sure you you'll be left with your pants down (=not enough xmr) if it takes off.

[dEBRUYNE]

The trendline since summer 2014 (June 21st) looks simply terrible.
All the way down with lower high points and the coin has lost most of its value both against bitcoin and against usd.

The trend was definitively broken around December 23. Now there is arguably a new slower downtrend of lower highs, but it is hard to make that case based on only two data points, and since December 23 we have also seen a higher low, so no clear indicator here at all.

Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.

Somewhat agree. Some members still talk about continuing to average down so that does support the price.

Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing second generation of Monero community members who weren't around for any of the early history and only now want to learn about the coin. That is a very healthy sign.

Me too, I think we will also see a new influx of users once the DB and the GUI are ready. Some investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the GUI+DB to come out to safely store their coins. I have to slightly disagree with TrueCryptonaire, there are still some whales cost averaging and buying, this has not stopped yet. I think above 0.0010 (psychological level as well, although it broke last time) should certainly hold. Also recall that bullbear is covering XMR and they have a lot of subscribers, this will most likely give an influx of new users as well.

PS: Wall at 0.0015/0.00155 has almost vanished Only around 12k left!

[jehst]

The trendline since summer 2014 (June 21st) looks simply terrible.
All the way down with lower high points and the coin has lost most of its value both against bitcoin and against usd.

The trend was definitively broken around December 23. Now there is arguably a new slower downtrend of lower highs, but it is hard to make that case based on only two data points, and since December 23 we have also seen a higher low, so no clear indicator here at all.

Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.

Somewhat agree. Some members still talk about continuing to average down so that does support the price.

Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing second generation of Monero community members who weren't around for any of the early history and only now want to learn about the coin. That is a very healthy sign.

Me too, I think we will also see a new influx of users once the DB and the GUI are ready. Some investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the GUI+DB to come out to safely store there coins. I have to slightly disagree with TrueCryptonaire, there are still some whales cost averaging and buying, this has not stopped yet. I think above 0.0010 (psychological level as well, although it broke last time) should certainly hold. Also recall that bullbear is covering XMR and they have a lot of subscribers, this will most likely give an influx of new users as well.

PS: Wall at 0.0015/0.00155 has almost vanished Only around 12k left!

Any serious investor will figure out how to generate a cold address.

[Quicken]

The trendline since summer 2014 (June 21st) looks simply terrible.
All the way down with lower high points and the coin has lost most of its value both against bitcoin and against usd.

The trend was definitively broken around December 23. Now there is arguably a new slower downtrend of lower highs, but it is hard to make that case based on only two data points, and since December 23 we have also seen a higher low, so no clear indicator here at all.

Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.

Somewhat agree. Some members still talk about continuing to average down so that does support the price.

Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing second generation of Monero community members who weren't around for any of the early history and only now want to learn about the coin. That is a very healthy sign.

I've been continuing to average down, buying some every month since June 2014. First buy: 0.00199. Highest buys were in September in the .003x range, and retrospectively they have hurt my average buy in a bit. Latest buy: about 7k @ .00121, today. I'm a bit jealous of the 2nd gen able to buy in at these prices, but I say welcome to the party! :-)

My average is well under my initial buy price and I'm in it for the long run. Done buying for the moment, but may change my mind if prices drop any further. So much upside IMHO.

[rpietila]

I have to slightly disagree with TrueCryptonaire, there are still some whales cost averaging and buying, this has not stopped yet. I think above 0.0010 (psychological level as well, although it broke last time) should certainly hold. Also recall that bullbear is covering XMR and they have a lot of subscribers, this will most likely give an influx of new users as well.

It is the proverbial game of chairs. As long as the music is played, it seems that there are plenty of chairs, and all the chairs are empty. Once it stops, for any reason, you cannot buy any serious quantity for the previous price any more.

This is well observed by checking any price chart of any coin, alt or BTC. The spikes come suddenly, violently, relentlessly, overshoot, and then crash. If the coin is good, the post-crash level is a multiple of the previous level.

XMR has not demonstrated itself pricewise, you have to check the fundamentals when buying. Technically, it's bad, but remember - when the music stops, the opportunity to buy anything but crumbs is gone. 

[dEBRUYNE]

The trendline since summer 2014 (June 21st) looks simply terrible.
All the way down with lower high points and the coin has lost most of its value both against bitcoin and against usd.

The trend was definitively broken around December 23. Now there is arguably a new slower downtrend of lower highs, but it is hard to make that case based on only two data points, and since December 23 we have also seen a higher low, so no clear indicator here at all.

Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.

Somewhat agree. Some members still talk about continuing to average down so that does support the price.

Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing second generation of Monero community members who weren't around for any of the early history and only now want to learn about the coin. That is a very healthy sign.

Me too, I think we will also see a new influx of users once the DB and the GUI are ready. Some investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the GUI+DB to come out to safely store there coins. I have to slightly disagree with TrueCryptonaire, there are still some whales cost averaging and buying, this has not stopped yet. I think above 0.0010 (psychological level as well, although it broke last time) should certainly hold. Also recall that bullbear is covering XMR and they have a lot of subscribers, this will most likely give an influx of new users as well.

PS: Wall at 0.0015/0.00155 has almost vanished Only around 12k left!

Any serious investor will figure out how to generate a cold address.

You are thinking way to rational. Your answer might be true for serious (large) investors, but not for the smaller ones. Some of them are just waiting till they can easily and safely store their XMR on their PC's. All these small till medium size investors could still produce large buy pressure.

[Quicken]

Any serious investor will figure out how to generate a cold address.

You are thinking way to rational. Your answer might be true for serious (large) investors, but not for the smaller ones. Some of them are just waiting till they can easily and safely store their XMR on their PC's. All these small till medium size investors could still produce large buy pressure.

I also think there are plenty of investors with serious money who are not tech heads.

[dEBRUYNE]

I have to slightly disagree with TrueCryptonaire, there are still some whales cost averaging and buying, this has not stopped yet. I think above 0.0010 (psychological level as well, although it broke last time) should certainly hold. Also recall that bullbear is covering XMR and they have a lot of subscribers, this will most likely give an influx of new users as well.

It is the proverbial game of chairs. As long as the music is played, it seems that there are plenty of chairs, and all the chairs are empty. Once it stops, for any reason, you cannot buy any serious quantity for the previous price any more.

This is well observed by checking any price chart of any coin, alt or BTC. The spikes come suddenly, violently, relentlessly, overshoot, and then crash. If the coin is good, the post-crash level is a multiple of the previous level.

XMR has not demonstrated itself pricewise, you have to check the fundamentals when buying. Technically, it's bad, but remember - when the music stops, the opportunity to buy anything but crumbs is gone. 

I certainly agree with your point. I personally think that there are a number of reasons for the current downtrend. At first you have the general crypto bear market (copyright smooth :-P), with the decline in btc, you will see a (leveraged) decline in alts. The current sentiment is just way too bearish, people are cashing out of crypto in general. Like ArticMine said before, in a bull market, alts will spike even higher than btc, but in a bear market, they will also fall deeper. Second, there is a lot of selling in order to buy back cheaper going on, eventually this will be countered by an uptrend, people will get nervous and will panic buy back in. Just look at the last bullrun from 0.0091 to 0.00193, we doubled in nearly a week and this was even in a bear market. Just imagine what will happen when btc is in a bull market. At last, the inflation might play a role in this downtrend, but I think the role of it is wildly exaggerated. XMR held easily above 0.03 when the inflation was a lot higher (although the general crypto sentiment was a lot better then). I think it is just a mix of the above factors. No one will really know when we will break the downtrend, but if we break upwards, it will certainly be explosive.  

[UnicornFarts]

The trendline since summer 2014 (June 21st) looks simply terrible.
All the way down with lower high points and the coin has lost most of its value both against bitcoin and against usd.

The trend was definitively broken around December 23. Now there is arguably a new slower downtrend of lower highs, but it is hard to make that case based on only two data points, and since December 23 we have also seen a higher low, so no clear indicator here at all.

Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.

Somewhat agree. Some members still talk about continuing to average down so that does support the price.

Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing second generation of Monero community members who weren't around for any of the early history and only now want to learn about the coin. That is a very healthy sign.

Me too, I think we will also see a new influx of users once the DB and the GUI are ready. Some investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the GUI+DB to come out to safely store there coins. I have to slightly disagree with TrueCryptonaire, there are still some whales cost averaging and buying, this has not stopped yet. I think above 0.0010 (psychological level as well, although it broke last time) should certainly hold. Also recall that bullbear is covering XMR and they have a lot of subscribers, this will most likely give an influx of new users as well.

PS: Wall at 0.0015/0.00155 has almost vanished Only around 12k left!

Any serious investor will figure out how to generate a cold address.

You are thinking way to rational. Your answer might be true for serious (large) investors, but not for the smaller ones. Some of them are just waiting till they can easily and safely store their XMR on their PC's. All these small till medium size investors could still produce large buy pressure.

I intentionally and stubbornly only use security that's available to the average joe to figure out in 3 minutes.

I know what the geeks "claim" the average joe should do with btc (or monero).  But personally I like the reminder of how much further we have to go until it's actually attractive to people who don't lock down their computers (or know how).

Really think someone need to do multi sig like 2fa.  People understand this - it's not a new concept.  

I don't think it would pump the price but it's something practical that needs to happen.

[dEBRUYNE]

Any serious investor will figure out how to generate a cold address.

You are thinking way to rational. Your answer might be true for serious (large) investors, but not for the smaller ones. Some of them are just waiting till they can easily and safely store their XMR on their PC's. All these small till medium size investors could still produce large buy pressure.

I also think there are plenty of investors with serious money who are not tech heads.

Agree. IIRC rpietila (and maybe other big holders as well) has a lot of wealthy friends, who might be interested in investing, but are not really teach heads (and thus capable to figure out how to generate a cold adress, or just don't want to invest the time into it to figure it out). I think the time consuming factor, the time it takes to figure out how to store/generate a cold adress is also a reason for currently not investing. Some people just want to buy XMR, download the GUI and store them.

EDIT: If I am wrong rpietila, please correct me.

[jehst]

The trendline since summer 2014 (June 21st) looks simply terrible.
All the way down with lower high points and the coin has lost most of its value both against bitcoin and against usd.

The trend was definitively broken around December 23. Now there is arguably a new slower downtrend of lower highs, but it is hard to make that case based on only two data points, and since December 23 we have also seen a higher low, so no clear indicator here at all.

Most members in Monero community (me included) have reached their limits of the amounts of Moneros they want to hold.

Somewhat agree. Some members still talk about continuing to average down so that does support the price.

Also, I'm definitely seeing a growing second generation of Monero community members who weren't around for any of the early history and only now want to learn about the coin. That is a very healthy sign.

Me too, I think we will also see a new influx of users once the DB and the GUI are ready. Some investors are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the GUI+DB to come out to safely store there coins. I have to slightly disagree with TrueCryptonaire, there are still some whales cost averaging and buying, this has not stopped yet. I think above 0.0010 (psychological level as well, although it broke last time) should certainly hold. Also recall that bullbear is covering XMR and they have a lot of subscribers, this will most likely give an influx of new users as well.

PS: Wall at 0.0015/0.00155 has almost vanished Only around 12k left!

Any serious investor will figure out how to generate a cold address.

You are thinking way to rational. Your answer might be true for serious (large) investors, but not for the smaller ones. Some of them are just waiting till they can easily and safely store their XMR on their PC's. All these small till medium size investors could still produce large buy pressure.

I intentionally and stubbornly only use security that's available to the average joe to figure out in 3 minutes.

I know what the geeks "claim" the average joe should do with btc (or monero).  But personally I like the reminder of how much further we have to go until it's actually attractive to people who don't lock down their computers (or know how).

Really think someone need to do multi sig like 2fa.  People understand this - it's not a new concept.  

I don't think it would pump the price but it's something practical that needs to happen.

Generating an address on mymonero.com is reasonably secure.

[thelibertycap]

Any serious investor will figure out how to generate a cold address.

You are thinking way to rational. Your answer might be true for serious (large) investors, but not for the smaller ones. Some of them are just waiting till they can easily and safely store their XMR on their PC's. All these small till medium size investors could still produce large buy pressure.

I also think there are plenty of investors with serious money who are not tech heads.

Agree. IIRC rpietila (and maybe other big holders as well) has a lot of wealthy friends, who might be interested in investing, but are not really teach heads (and thus capable to figure out how to generate a cold adress, or just don't want to invest the time into it to figure it out). I think the time consuming factor, the time it takes to figure out how to store/generate a cold address is also a reason for currently not investing. Some people just want to buy XMR, download the GUI and store them.

EDIT: If I am wrong rpietila, please correct me.

just to be clear here - store/generate a cold address means opening simplewallet and writing down the seed words on a piece of paper?

i think a dedicated page with information how to store monero is a good idea. something like glorified FAQ with one question: how to generate a paper wallet for complete dummies.

a step up would be a device like
https://www.bitcointrezor.com/
which has recently gone open source
https://cryptojunction.com/trezor-open-source-community-outcry/
it should be possible to write a monero wallet for such a device

[shitaifan2013]

Any serious investor will figure out how to generate a cold address.

You are thinking way to rational. Your answer might be true for serious (large) investors, but not for the smaller ones. Some of them are just waiting till they can easily and safely store their XMR on their PC's. All these small till medium size investors could still produce large buy pressure.

I also think there are plenty of investors with serious money who are not tech heads.

Agree. IIRC rpietila (and maybe other big holders as well) has a lot of wealthy friends, who might be interested in investing, but are not really teach heads (and thus capable to figure out how to generate a cold adress, or just don't want to invest the time into it to figure it out). I think the time consuming factor, the time it takes to figure out how to store/generate a cold address is also a reason for currently not investing. Some people just want to buy XMR, download the GUI and store them.

EDIT: If I am wrong rpietila, please correct me.

such a FAQ is already existant here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=721045.0 as well as here http://xmrmonero.com/?q=faq-page#t7n28 

just to be clear here - store/generate a cold address means opening simplewallet and writing down the seed words on a piece of paper?

i think a dedicated page with information how to store monero is a good idea. something like glorified FAQ with one question: how to generate a paper wallet for complete dummies.

a step up would be a device like
https://www.bitcointrezor.com/
which has recently gone open source
https://cryptojunction.com/trezor-open-source-community-outcry/
it should be possible to write a monero wallet for such a device

such a FAQ is already existant here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=721045.0 as well as here http://xmrmonero.com/?q=faq-page#t7n28 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like XMR is hanging between 0.00125-0.00135.
Everything under 0.00125 is a buying opportunity and over 0.0013 is an area of selling pressure.

[romanbrown]

Active thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=947839.0

Ive designed a very specific technical implementation to add trustless, tradable, contracts on the Cryptonote prototcol.

The whitepaper can be downloaded from Google drive

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B75gaqtEgDR8UHU2UVJ6TkYzMnRkdFFsbklBd3hVMDV1eDQw/view?usp=sharing

I am looking to implement this very soon on one of the existing Cryptonote coins.

Looking for suggestions, criticisms, anything that will facilitate this implementation. Unlike most other suggestions or whitepapers I have the full technical ability and experience to implement these changes. I don't want to deal with the prospect of launching a new coin, nor should I have to as these changes would only improve the features of an existing Cryptonote coin.

Roman Brown
romanbrown54@gmail.com