[XMR] Monero Speculation

[primer-]

I hit three blocks in a row again, with less than 300kh/s .. This shouldn't be possible at the current difficulty...

Code:

909839	49 to go	1054658909	eaf7aabb143fe3aef10bdfee8d8ecb7eabc7c32f479d17361493ec90bc8b936e	1/12/2016, 11:53:48 PM	3%
909837	47 to go	1057789727	d52b7b1afb24a093e8d3d642014062a0910d232197ffaa8221f6588ab580ea17	1/12/2016, 11:51:58 PM	10%
909833	43 to go	1060389309	3d7bf46d75c5847a1deed22dfa19da42ad0eb0eb8895dba2fa1990732f0e3514	1/12/2016, 11:45:31 PM	2%
909832	42 to go	1058626345	7f967bbc5076d0cfddc297565acd253dc6b08caddf3f573b321f84cae68b899b	1/12/2016, 11:44:22 PM	3%
909831	41 to go	1057809920	0b355e2c882eff0c0392d2ff49ffb8a06ddfe733e63a761ae966c9d8fe5d5ac0	1/12/2016, 11:42:08 PM	29%

Seems like block propagation is the issue here, once you hit a block probability you get the next one is higher than it should be..

EDIT : This needs to be looked at, pools or anyone with high hash rate might find a way to exploit this..

It's not really "higher than it should be", there is no "what it should be". Yes probability to find a block is slightly higher if you know the previous one before anyone else, and it's not an exploit, just a fact due to propagation times.
I doubt this is having a meaningful (visible) impact with 1mn time blocks, but anyway the network will switch to 2mn blocks next hard fork (March).

I've been finding 2-3-4 blocks in a row both yesterday and today, with around 1% of total net hash. Do the math, this should not happen! Just imagine the advantage miners with 1mh/s+ have...
Today's sudden rise in diff. stinks of an exploit ..

[saddambitcoin]

I dunno, sounds like luck to me. You have 1% of the hashrate, you have a good chance of getting blocks no matter what.

[dEBRUYNE]

Even though it might be luck, it might be a good idea to dive into a bit.

[wpalczynski]

Variance.

[smooth]

I dunno, sounds like luck to me. You have 1% of the hashrate, you have a good chance of getting blocks no matter what.

At 300 kh/s that is 2-3% of the hashrate not 1%. You expect two in a row like every day or more. Three in a row is no big deal.

[opennux]

I dunno, sounds like luck to me. You have 1% of the hashrate, you have a good chance of getting blocks no matter what.

At 300 kh/s that is 2-3% of the hashrate not 1%. You expect two in a row like every day or more. Three in a row is no big deal.

Are people handwaving this question - or not?

What is the probability of this? 2-3% he should be getting 20-40 blocks a day. Let's say 30 blocks. Which means the probability of him solving a block is 1440/30 = 1/48.

So two in a row is (1/48)*(1/48)= 1/2304

Three blocks in a row is (1/48)*(1/48)*(1/48) = 1/110592

?

As you can clearly see I suck at statistics.

[smooth]

If you have 2.5% of the hash rate your chance of winning any block is 1/40. Assuming you won a particular block the chance that you also won the previous block is 1/40.

That's 36 blocks per day meaning that right around one of those should be a double. Roughly once a month you would expect a triple. Obviously this is random so it could be zero times in a month or several times a month. That is all expected.

Not only that but the hash rate on the network fluctuates due to solar power or who knows. So if you are averaging 2.5% then sometimes you are probably close to 5%, other times maybe 1%. When you are 5% the frequency of doubles/triples/etc. becomes much higher (more than double). At 5% (if sustained 24h/day) you would expect 3-4 double blocks per day, and a triple a week.

[rpietila]

So two in a row is (1/48)*(1/48)= 1/2304

Three blocks in a row is (1/48)*(1/48)*(1/48) = 1/110592

As you can clearly see I suck at statistics.

The actual math can be expressed like this (even though it is a simplification but helps to point out your main error):

- If someone has a 2.5% chance of getting any random block, it means he gets 1440*2.5%= 36 blocks per day on average.
- Regardless who had the previous block (even himself), he has 2.5% chance of getting the next one.
- Therefore, he has 36*2.5% ~100% chance to get two in a row in each day.
- Getting three in a row is indeed more difficult and should happen on average a few times per year.
- I am not in the mood to calculate the statistically significant 2-, 3- etc sigma events (improbable events), I'd say 5 in a row is significant, 4 is not.

(It seems that some people are not that far off thinking "smooth = me", because we do seem to think same way .. )

[birr]

On any given day, 90% chance of getting (at least) two blocks in a row.
.025 x .025 x 1440
Chance of getting three in a row, 2.25%
.025^3 x 1440
Four in a row .05625%
Five in a row .001406% or about every 200 years

[papa_lazzarou]

Current difficulty : 1124815084

Sept. 2015 - Jan 2016
http://www.coinwarz.com/difficulty-charts/monero-difficulty-chart

If my memory serves me right, ATH was 114xxx .. Monero price was .0055 back then..

Chainradar shows 154... on August 30, 2014. But if someone queries the blockchain database they can get an exact number for the highest difficulty on any single block.

Price was near 400k sat at this time and if I am not mistaken this was just before BitcoinEXpress' time warp threat.

+--------+-----------------+--------------------------+
| height  | block_difficulty    | date                            |
+--------+-----------------+--------------------------+
| 216289 |       1854402895 | 2014-09-13 15:27:52      |
| 216286 |       1853088273 | 2014-09-13 15:22:48      |
| 216285 |       1850301106 | 2014-09-13 15:21:59      |
| 216287 |       1850021142 | 2014-09-13 15:26:53      |
| 216284 |       1849488407 | 2014-09-13 15:20:22      |
| 216288 |       1849355574 | 2014-09-13 15:26:58      |
| 216296 |       1848614128 | 2014-09-13 15:34:30      |
| 216283 |       1848382220 | 2014-09-13 15:17:48      |
| 216282 |       1848082216 | 2014-09-13 15:14:35      |
| 216280 |       1847537982 | 2014-09-13 15:13:39      |
+--------+------------------+--------------------------+

[papa_lazzarou]

(It seems that some people are not that far off thinking "smooth = me", because we do seem to think same way .. )

  Do you have any idea about the multitude of threads this will spawn???

[rpietila]

(It seems that some people are not that far off thinking "smooth = me", because we do seem to think same way .. )

  Do you have any idea about the multitude of threads this will spawn???

It's an old accusation, I actually heard about it somewhat recently. Just imagine how much I(=we) earn to operate 2 legendary accounts with 10,000 posts...   

[luigi1111]

All of these numbers and formulas are wrong (except smooth, who is just giving rough numbers anyway). Risto's is admittedly labeled as a simplification.

With 2.5% of the network hash rate, you have about a 60% chance of getting one or more double blocks each day. On average, you should get 27 double blocks per month. Every time you get a double block, you have a chance to get a triple block, so you end up with something like (per month):

• a 50.4806% chance of no triple
• a 34.9481% chance of one triple
• a 11.6494% of two triples
• a 2.9219% chance of three or more triples

Again, this is just on an average month and obviously assumes your % hash rate remains constant.

[Hueristic]

Does anyone know when bittrex withdrawals will be available? How long has it been disabled?

[birr]

All of these numbers and formulas are wrong (except smooth, who is just giving rough numbers anyway). Risto's is admittedly labeled as a simplification.

With 2.5% of the network hash rate, you have about a 60% chance of getting one or more double blocks each day. On average, you should get 27 double blocks per month. Every time you get a double block, you have a chance to get a triple block, so you end up with something like (per month):

• a 50.4806% chance of no triple
• a 34.9481% chance of one triple
• a 11.6494% of two triples
• a 2.9219% chance of three or more triples

Again, this is just on an average month and obviously assumes your % hash rate remains constant.

The chance of getting at least two blocks in a row is 90%.
If you count only double blocks that are not part of triple blocks, the probability is lower than 90%.  I haven't worked it out.

[Bassica]

Pretty crazy to see XMR's marketcap being only 12.207 btc whilst it's ranked number 7 on coingecko.com. First coin having a lower marketcap is number 14, which is ftc.

Talking about undervalued!

Check it out: https://www.coingecko.com/en

[mathgal23]

All of these numbers and formulas are wrong (except smooth, who is just giving rough numbers anyway). Risto's is admittedly labeled as a simplification.

With 2.5% of the network hash rate, you have about a 60% chance of getting one or more double blocks each day. On average, you should get 27 double blocks per month. Every time you get a double block, you have a chance to get a triple block, so you end up with something like (per month):

• a 50.4806% chance of no triple
• a 34.9481% chance of one triple
• a 11.6494% of two triples
• a 2.9219% chance of three or more triples

Again, this is just on an average month and obviously assumes your % hash rate remains constant.

Probabilities are fun. If I get time I will look at the math more later.

[iCEBREAKER]

Pretty crazy to see XMR's marketcap being only 12.207 btc whilst it's ranked number 7 on coingecko.com. First coin having a lower marketcap is number 14, which is ftc.

Talking about undervalued!

Check it out: https://www.coingecko.com/en

I think the (comparative) undervaluation is intentionally created by XMR's aggressive early emission schedule, so everyone can get a nice stack of cheap early coins and start bootstrapping ASAP.

Thanks for reminding me to post this:


https://monerohash.com/nodes-distribution.html

Monero is a tiny newborn baby in terms of full nodes and global distribution (WTF Australia/India/Brazil? Get with it!).   

If Szabo or another crypto-celebrity blessed Monero with just half of the public attention he's directed towards ETH, node number could easily rise by an order of magnitude or two.

Even without some famous person's endorsement, we have nowhere to go but up, up, up!   

[luigi1111]

All of these numbers and formulas are wrong (except smooth, who is just giving rough numbers anyway). Risto's is admittedly labeled as a simplification.

With 2.5% of the network hash rate, you have about a 60% chance of getting one or more double blocks each day. On average, you should get 27 double blocks per month. Every time you get a double block, you have a chance to get a triple block, so you end up with something like (per month):

• a 50.4806% chance of no triple
• a 34.9481% chance of one triple
• a 11.6494% of two triples
• a 2.9219% chance of three or more triples

Again, this is just on an average month and obviously assumes your % hash rate remains constant.

The chance of getting at least two blocks in a row is 90%.
If you count only double blocks that are not part of triple blocks, the probability is lower than 90%.  I haven't worked it out.

No, it's not. The math you used to arrive at 90% (.025 x .025 x 1440) is not how probabilities work. 60% is much closer to the actual number.

[Hueristic]

WTF is with these trolls?

I posted to get on Polo for another coin Ive been part of since day 1 that  I'd to see a XMR/VPN pairing and I get this shit.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789961.msg13535318#msg13535318

This looks like a concerted effort to keep the price down. I'm wondering if these P&D groups are accumulating.