[XMR] Monero Speculation

[GingerAle]

So what can be expected in price jump once official GUI wallet is released later this year?  Just wondering what some of you all might think?  This is the only coin that has had this much development without an official GUI wallet.  I for one am glad that the dev team worked on the fundamentals first before the GUI wallet.  Hell because I like Monero so much I even donated to get the GUI wallet out.  

Still hoping to see some rise with official GUI wallet.  Any thoughts?

The "official GUI wallet" has become this giant bogeyman. The main reason why XMR's price is low? The main reason why it will be high? No, I think you guys are giving it far too much importance.

How many of the people buying Ethereum have attempted to download any of the ETH software? 10%? Hell, they were selling the stuff before the blockchain even went live. How many of the people buying XMR on polo have withdrawn their XMR? Probably 10%.

An official wallet is nice, but it doesn't drive adoption. Platforms like Cryptokingdom, Monerodice, etc. are far more important for driving adoption than the official GUI wallet (especially when there are unofficial wallets)

In my opinion, .01 to .02 will happen when crypto as a whole has its next bubble. Then XMR goes along for the ride. The plan is to accumulate during periods of low interest and avoid buying when the price is hot.

^^^ All this and a bag o' chips.

I think the one thing that the GUI may foster is increased services / platforms. One of the (semi-circular) arguments that I've heard is that services won't integrate monero because users can't use it easily... which is part hogwash IMO. Most services don't integrate Monero because the documentation to do so is scattered to the four corners of the internet, and its not bitcoin so its hard. Well, that and up until 2 months ago it used 9 bajillion gigs of ram. Well that and we have no idea how many people use Monero.

[griffen1102]

So what can be expected in price jump once official GUI wallet is released later this year?  Just wondering what some of you all might think?  This is the only coin that has had this much development without an official GUI wallet.  I for one am glad that the dev team worked on the fundamentals first before the GUI wallet.  Hell because I like Monero so much I even donated to get the GUI wallet out. 

Still hoping to see some rise with official GUI wallet.  Any thoughts?

The "official GUI wallet" has become this giant bogeyman. The main reason why XMR's price is low? The main reason why it will be high? No, I think you guys are giving it far too much importance.

How many of the people buying Ethereum have attempted to download any of the ETH software? 10%? Hell, they were selling the stuff before the blockchain even went live. How many of the people buying XMR on polo have withdrawn their XMR? Probably 10%.

An official wallet is nice, but it doesn't drive adoption. Platforms like Cryptokingdom, Monerodice, etc. are far more important for driving adoption than the official GUI wallet (especially when there are unofficial wallets)

In my opinion, .01 to .02 will happen when crypto as a whole has its next bubble. Then XMR goes along for the ride. The plan is to accumulate during periods of low interest and avoid buying when the price is hot.

^^^ All this and a bag o' chips.

I think the one thing that the GUI may foster is increased services / platforms. One of the (semi-circular) arguments that I've heard is that services won't integrate monero because users can't use it easily... which is part hogwash IMO. Most services don't integrate Monero because the documentation to do so is scattered to the four corners of the internet, and its not bitcoin so its hard. Well, that and up until 2 months ago it used 9 bajillion gigs of ram. Well that and we have no idea how many people use Monero.

Something with such solid fundamentals as Monero should certainly see a rise when the user interface becomes orders of magnitude easier to use. I would think that this current rise will put XMR on the radar for crypto n00bs, and when GUI wallet is out that will cause some excitement from the community which will trigger demand which will slowly trickle down onto the laps of people who were brought into crypto with the rise of ETH.

[Rotator]

What will be so revolutionary in this wallet?
I see Monero have strongest community, and for a long time have many supporters.
What is different here than other anon coins?
Is this really best anon coin?

[aminorex]

What are your predictions? How far can XMR goes?
Can we see 0.01 like Dash? What causing this fantastic price rise?

Please someone post how can i see XMR/BTC on bitcoinwisdom.
I didn't found myself, but saw few pages before in this topic.
link would be best.
Thanks.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc

I think XMR is well situated to be a major proportion of the opaque blockchain market, and the long term valuation which you place on that depends on estimating several probability distributions.  It is almost certainly much, much higher than the current price.  

In the simplest long-term pricing model, you need to estimate (1) the value of global money flows which will be on opaque crypto in the future (G), (2) the velocity of those flows (V), (3) the fraction of that market which will be denominated in XMR (R), and (4) the reserve demand for XMR as a fraction of the supply (X).  Then the expected long-term eqilibrium market clearing price of G*R / V = (1 - X) * S, where S is the number of XMR which have been mined and have not been lost.  

Global GDP (m) is roughly 75 trillion at a velocity near 4 (v) and XMR will denominate a fraction (Rm), and global black market is roughly 2.5 trillion (n), velocity unknown (w), and XMR will denomination a fraction (Rn), values in 2016 USD.  G=m+n, V = (v*m+w*n) / (m+n).  

You can put narrow error bars around S at 18 million XMR, and perhaps with research you can put narrow error bars around w -- but I think w is a function of Rn, and that the ratio w/Rn is monotone decreasing with rising Rn.  X, Rm and Rn are not easy to estimate with any accuracy, so fill in your own scenarios.  The overwhelming sensitivity of the estimate will be to the difficult-to-estimate factors Rm and Rn.  You can do a graphical model and run periodic Bayesian updates from measured data pretty easily, but the outcome will be strongly dependent on model assumptions about the distributions of the priors and error terms.  I have done this, but I won't share the results because they are (1) absurdly bullish, and (2) very low precision.  Maybe someday I will work on refining the model, to reduce the sources of uncertainty.  Suggestions for this are solicited.

Put another way, for the simplest conceivable rule of thumb, let's call the portion of global black market moneyflows denominated in XMR, ïn basis points (units of 1/10000 of the total), "z".  Then the value of one XMR should be on the order of z * 20 USD, at the bottom end.

All of which is predicated on purely monetary use.  If there are dapps on an XMR platform in future, this can only decrease the float usable for monetary purposes.  I don't see XMR dapps as a down-side threat, long-term, although they would certainly muddy the waters on the monetary value proposition.

I am not particularly good at estimating short-term levels in XMR, so I leave that to others, when I am trying to be serious.  (I often am trying not to be serious, however.)

[griffen1102]

What will be so revolutionary in this wallet?
I see Monero have strongest community, and for a long time have many supporters.
What is different here than other anon coins?
Is this really best anon coin?

Monero has a very technical community, ie they know their way around a computer. What this GUI wallet does for me is exponentially increase the usability of the coin and make it so I don't have to store my XMR online. I don't know shit about command terminals and this is the main reason why I want this wallet as soon as possible. I feel like I'm frozen with my XMR because I don't have the time to understand terminal commands, and honestly it probably safer for me to use mymonero than to try and figure it out.

[rdnkjdi]

Is this really best anon coin?

Short answer is yes.  By far.  And they've fixed bitcoins scaling problems and dealt with the hardfork issue.

[bitebits]

If it was just an unrelated pump and there is nothing at all behind it, we could see 100k again.

If XMR is on the move, you should be buying instead of reading. Any price starting with 0.00 is good.

I think it's an unrelated pump. It is no coincidence that XMR went up alongside NEM, ETH, MAIDSAFE, etc. All of those coins have something in common: they are predominantly traded on Poloniex. This run likely has little to do with XMR's properties. It has everything to do with where XMR is traded and the fact that XMR could go up easily. This is a "polo pump." Many polo-coins will take turns getting pumped until the money that is concentrated on polo flows back out of polo

Disclaimer: I've been wrong 1000 times.

Then I guess the real question is how often you have been right .

But no matter the short term outcome or cause, I really do agree with the second part of your follow-up post (quoted below). Something that easily draws attention is an explosive rise in price, but then you go down the rabbit hole.. I learnt so much. Not only about how Bitcoin and then Monero work and the value they have (still learning every single day), but also about economics, money, open source projects, trading, etc etc. I would say it changed my (naive?) view on many things.

The thing with Monero is that you first need to have a basic understanding about economics, money and Bitcoin. And their shortcomings. And then when you are lucky you bump into Monero. It takes time.

I also agree that this is great for awareness of XMR. Many people were drawn into BTC just for the pump, but then they learned about BTC and began to believe in the idea of an independent money. The same thing could happen with XMR. People may come for the pump, but then stay for the fungibility.

[explorer]

What will be so revolutionary in this wallet?
I see Monero have strongest community, and for a long time have many supporters.
What is different here than other anon coins?
Is this really best anon coin?

Monero has a very technical community, ie they know their way around a computer. What this GUI wallet does for me is exponentially increase the usability of the coin and make it so I don't have to store my XMR online. I don't know shit about command terminals and this is the main reason why I want this wallet as soon as possible. I feel like I'm frozen with my XMR because I don't have the time to understand terminal commands, and honestly it probably safer for me to use mymonero than to try and figure it out.

Pretty sure there is a large, silent pool of people that feel the same.  I reached the comfort threshold for what I want to store on polo and mymonero some time ago, and won't significantly add to it unless/until:
 the price drops substantially
 official GUI
 or the time and inclination to become more computer literate shake hands.

Of these,  the most likely first mover is now the GUI.  If I never accumulate more than the modest amount I currently hold (by proxy, yes) I will be quite content.  Greed, however, indicates that I would happily multiply that amount if it could be done with minimal stress and effort.

 I have been accumulating little bits for some time, and watching the project and community even longer.  I've yet to see anything I like better in the anon space.  True, I don't have the tech background to fully understand the workings myself, but I DO have the intelligence to recognize ability and integrity in others.  One cannot be a leader in every field, so the ability to recognize whom to follow is perhaps more important.
Monero FTW.

[TrueCryptonaire]

A rational reasoning why anyone should increase their Monero possessions when GUI is out:

XMR is simply usable for more people. More users mean more demand in the future and more demand in the future means there will be higher price in the future because the new coins' supply will never be as high as it is currently.  

Also, once GUI is succesfully out, it is one more risk factor out of the picture, therefore adding holdings might be a rational move.

[dEBRUYNE]

Update on experimental Trezor firmware testing (Linux and OS X binaries are included now):

https://forum.getmonero.org/4/academic-and-technical/2495/experimental-trezor-firmware-testing

[nioc]

If the price rose with the release of 0.9 I see no reason it will not do so with the release of the GUI.  There should also be a bump in a couple of weeks after the hardfork. 

The following was posted in the ANN thread and I think it is very appropriate for this current discussion.

...

i dug in my memory and refound this gem :

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qomqt/what_a_landmark_legal_case_from_mid1700s_scotland/

maybe we can put this story on the monero websites?

Yes, That is the first thing I ran across when I was trying to find the implications when I was researching the term.

It really is a GREAT read and needs to be linked and accessible to those researching Monero. I believe this should be a huge part of the marketing when it starts and there is no reason not to start setting up now for when the push starts.

BTW, Who will be in charge of the marketing aspect when we finally are ready for that phase?

...
Great read. Thanks for posting.

This is one of the reasons I own Monero next to Bitcoin. There is a chance a blacklist will become accepted in Bitcoin or in the Bitcoin habitat which would help it spiral to death. Monero would most likely take its place.

I agree and that is why I want to see a USD/XMR pair RIGHT now! I want nothing to do with BTC anymore it is a dead end that has passed it's time and will do nothing but turn people away from the concept of V currency going on. The Cons are starting to outweigh the Pro's with BTC, the community is splintered and eating itself (whether by design or not) and it is becoming centralized and regulated. ALL things I cannot abide.


XMR needs to be ready to step in as soon as that Gui is ready. And definitely before that Zcash bullshit is released. Because it is guaranteed they will be stealing the privacy spotlight from all other coins even though they have so many gaping flaws they are not to be trusted on release. I just can't imagine having to trust 3 people with an entire economies worth of wealth!! MY god That is worse than the current Banking system!

The Marketing plan and it's supporting infrastructure needs to be ready to be released on the day the GUI is released, not started on at that time. And updating all the literature should be a #1 priority on that list as that is what everyone will be directed to when inquiring. What we need is a pair of eyes that have never seen Monero yet is knowledgeable about using BTC and then send them to the docs and let them make a list of what is to confusing and hard to follow and or missing. then we can address that list rinse and repeat until the literature is easily digestible to the public.

[dEBRUYNE]

"Trezor for Monero – First impressions!":

http://weuse.cash/2016/03/07/trezor-for-monero-first-impressions/

[jwinterm]

...
 or the time and inclination to become more computer literate shake hands.
...

I'm not trying to nag or berate you guys who refuse to try the simplewallet command line interface, but it is really pretty straightforward, and in light of some guy losing 32k XMR from mymonero, it's something that might be worth ten minutes of your time.

Let's assume you use Windows, and that you understand what files and folders are on your computer.

Download simplewallet and unzip it into a folder called Monero, or whatever. Double click simplewallet, type in a name for your new wallet, let's say mywallet, and press enter. Type in a password for your new wallet, and then be absolutely sure to write down your 25 word seed. Close simplewallet. You should now have a file called mywallet.address.txt in the folder with simplewallet. Open mywallet.address.txt; this is your address - you can send coins here and not have to worry about exchanges goxxing or cryptsying or unknown vulnerabilities in web wallets.

[MrGood]

Curious perspectives in this thread.

It should be patently obvious that the GUI will have an effect on price, not just for faciliating greater user adoption but also for being a point of speculative propaganda.

Monero's all-time high is 0.01 which was achieved based on the expectation of Mintpal adoption - a meaningless exchange that has since departed.

The rise of ETH and fall of Cryptsy/Dash has pushed new wealth and whales into Poloniex from which XMR is the primary beneficiary.

Monero is a uniquely attractive tripod that posesses an extrordinary technological component, a credible political base, as well as demonstrable speculative volume.

This means that at any point in time the XMR price can explode without warning and for no reason whatsoever, other than the fact the price is deemed to be very low, and the long-term confidence is deemed to be very high.

[griffen1102]

Monero's all-time high is 0.01 which was achieved based on the expectation of Mintpal adoption

God life was so easy back then, just buy any coin ninja-added to MP and wait. Cash out, rinse and repeat. These days you got to read and figure out what's bullshit and what's legit, but with all that I've ended up here and it's because of Moneros promising features and technology. And the thing is, with XMR I don't mind waiting a bit because in the end it will be worth it.

[dEBRUYNE]

...
 or the time and inclination to become more computer literate shake hands.
...

I'm not trying to nag or berate you guys who refuse to try the simplewallet command line interface, but it is really pretty straightforward, and in light of some guy losing 32k XMR from mymonero, it's something that might be worth ten minutes of your time.

Let's assume you use Windows, and that you understand what files and folders are on your computer.

Download simplewallet and unzip it into a folder called Monero, or whatever. Double click simplewallet, type in a name for your new wallet, let's say mywallet, and press enter. Type in a password for your new wallet, and then be absolutely sure to write down your 25 word seed. Close simplewallet. You should now have a file called mywallet.address.txt in the folder with simplewallet. Open mywallet.address.txt; this is your address - you can send coins here and not have to worry about exchanges goxxing or cryptsying or unknown vulnerabilities in web wallets.

There is also this extensive guide (which includes videos that literally walk you through it!):

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48cgmd/an_extensive_guide_for_securely_generating_an/

[explorer]

...
 or the time and inclination to become more computer literate shake hands.
...

I'm not trying to nag or berate you guys who refuse to try the simplewallet command line interface, but it is really pretty straightforward, and in light of some guy losing 32k XMR from mymonero, it's something that might be worth ten minutes of your time.

Let's assume you use Windows, and that you understand what files and folders are on your computer.

Download simplewallet and unzip it into a folder called Monero, or whatever. Double click simplewallet, type in a name for your new wallet, let's say mywallet, and press enter. Type in a password for your new wallet, and then be absolutely sure to write down your 25 word seed. Close simplewallet. You should now have a file called mywallet.address.txt in the folder with simplewallet. Open mywallet.address.txt; this is your address - you can send coins here and not have to worry about exchanges goxxing or cryptsying or unknown vulnerabilities in web wallets.

Damnit, now you've done it.   I happen to have a few hours free, so here we go.   Currently downloading on an ultra-slow connection.

[dEBRUYNE]

...
 or the time and inclination to become more computer literate shake hands.
...

I'm not trying to nag or berate you guys who refuse to try the simplewallet command line interface, but it is really pretty straightforward, and in light of some guy losing 32k XMR from mymonero, it's something that might be worth ten minutes of your time.

Let's assume you use Windows, and that you understand what files and folders are on your computer.

Download simplewallet and unzip it into a folder called Monero, or whatever. Double click simplewallet, type in a name for your new wallet, let's say mywallet, and press enter. Type in a password for your new wallet, and then be absolutely sure to write down your 25 word seed. Close simplewallet. You should now have a file called mywallet.address.txt in the folder with simplewallet. Open mywallet.address.txt; this is your address - you can send coins here and not have to worry about exchanges goxxing or cryptsying or unknown vulnerabilities in web wallets.

Damnit, now you've done it.   I happen to have a few hours free, so here we go.   Currently downloading on an ultra-slow connection.

You might also be interested in the guide I've posted above. It is a bit more extensive and will take a bit more of your time, but it is meant for cold storage, which basically means that your coins only can get stolen by physical access.

[griffen1102]

Nice 50btc sell wall at 250ksats

[dEBRUYNE]

This guide was just posted on reddit btw:

https://github.com/monero-project/monero-site/blob/master/knowledge-base/user-guides/create_wallet.md

Might be helpful for the guys "struggling" with simplewallet and the CLI.