[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rangedriver]

I just dont understand why Monero is still underpriced, it should be atleast 0.01 if not more

My theory is too many traders and not enough people who want to give it value by old fashioned HODLing. There is also that GUI thing because of which apparently some Hero Members feel uncomfortable giving it value aka dump when it rises and then back to speculation thread with charts saying it will go down.

With all the excitement coming in the near future wrt RingCT, HF for mixins etc (check dev log), relentless DB optimizations and of course GUI etc coming, there does need to be warning shots fired and a valuation at least twice the current levels be set as floor. But we have had the eyes of a lot of twitter traders who just keep posting about "take profits"/ "short XMR" etc with the slightest of rises throughout last 18 months. These guys are just pure noise makers and 99% of them are just flat out lying about making any profit most of the time, otherwise they would be posting screen shots of their trades. In this very thread you see some keep changing their stance so frequently. The problem is, the audience isn't vast like BTC to use this thread for manipulation and agenda. If only they could use that energy to spread positive info about XMR outside of bitcointalk 

Well said.

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[dnaleor]

Mobile is where it counts the most.  I know I failed on the Mycelium fork.  Sorry about that.  Got too busy, and my code monkey alternate bailed on me.  Maybe later, if it is still relevant.

I think the GUI that is now in the works will also be able to be ported to mobile: http://doc.qt.io/qt-5/portingtoandroid.html

[Johnny Mnemonic]

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

With all due respect, what you're saying is crazy.

Of course a bundled GUI will result in new adoption. You can't just assume that everyone knows how to use terminal.... they don't.

The userbase associated with a $1B marketcap is not the same userbase as a cabal of niche crypto-developers who take certain technological fundamentals for granted.

It should also be patently obvious that an easy-to-use GUI gives confidence to third-parties who may be mulling over integration.

What's crazy is the idea that the average joe will want to run a node for some whiz-bang e-money just because he can... never mind the fact that he has no reason to.

A bundled GUI only increases accessibility to the few crypto-conscious individuals already in the space. Joe Blow doesn't have a good reason to run his own node, GUI or not. Making something easier doesn't automatically make anyone want or need it.

There are lots of things that can make XMR approachable to wider adoption. Mobile apps with easy messaging as an abstraction layer for payments, point-of-sale tools and services for in-person purchases, easier exchange services from/to fiat, etc. would all be greatly helpful.

But a core GUI won't increase adoption significantly, because average users won't be running their own nodes anyway.

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

What about the idea that poor ease-of-use serves as a deterrent to third party integrations and services?

I think that was the case 12 months ago, but not anymore. Besides, the lack of a GUI seems like it would be less of a deterrent to the third parties doing the integrations and more of a deterrent to the end users who care about running their own node yet somehow lack the knowledge to use the CLI.

I could be wrong of course. But when the GUI comes out and not much changes, I won't be surprised.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Johnny doesn't seem to realize adding a coin with no GUI is basically volunteering to teach a potentially unlimited number of n00bz everything from Command Line 101 to the theory of functions, and how that all relates to RPC, daemons, etc.

No, I totally get it and I agree with you. What I'm saying is that a core GUI is not a reasonable solution for end users. End users will never be running their own nodes, and it's ridiculous to expect them to. We need solutions that are lighter, easier, and "instanter" than anything a core GUI can deliver.

[meme magic]

the focus on getting a gui completely integrated with core will be far more beneficial than the result of having a gui, imo.

as an end user ill be running a node, so long as the blockchain can be kept to a strict 20-50 gb in size

[smooth]

the focus on getting a gui completely integrated with core will be far more beneficial than the result of having a gui, imo.

as an end user ill be running a node, so long as the blockchain can be kept to a strict 20-50 gb in size

It won't be >20 GB for quite some time. The current blockchain is around 2-3 GB, and only growing by 1-2 GB per year. On disk it needs 8-12 GB depending on OS but there is some optimization work being done that will both reduce the size and improve the performance.

Obviously increased usage will make it grow faster but that is a good problem to have.

[cryptodromeda]

A bundled GUI only increases accessibility to the few crypto-conscious individuals already in the space. Joe Blow doesn't have a good reason to run his own node, GUI or not. Making something easier doesn't automatically make anyone want or need it.

No it doesn't just do that. It is a decongestant that effectively lays the foundations for future expansion - both social and technical. It is clearing the decks and is level up - a significant milestone for Monero, not just in terms of service advancement but also in terms of demonstrable management and group industry.

It's a major achievement and a whole new chapter in Monero's future, and thus is a perfect modulator for market action which increases market volume and speculator interest, hence bringing increased vibrancy into the whole Monero ecosystem.

[dnaleor]

My trezor homescreen


If you want to have the same homescreen, use this file: http://imgur.com/du1U8oM

[flagel8]

What's crazy is the idea that the average joe will want to run a node for some whiz-bang e-money just because he can... never mind the fact that he has no reason to.

A bundled GUI only increases accessibility to the few crypto-conscious individuals already in the space. Joe Blow doesn't have a good reason to run his own node, GUI or not. Making something easier doesn't automatically make anyone want or need it.

There are lots of things that can make XMR approachable to wider adoption. Mobile apps with easy messaging as an abstraction layer for payments, point-of-sale tools and services for in-person purchases, easier exchange services from/to fiat, etc. would all be greatly helpful.

But a core GUI won't increase adoption significantly, because average users won't be running their own nodes anyway.

Sure, I don't run a node for Btc, but that coin is several iterations past efficient CPU mining. But Monero, afaict, will be still CPU mineable, right? THAT's my motive for running a node. As someone else here pointed out, going through the hoops to mine Monero NOW is a "chore". But once the gui is out, if it has one-click smart mining, I'm there! Giving everyone a motive and an easy way to run a node is decentralization in action, as exciting in its way as fungibility and privacy!

[explorer]

Is the GUI supposed to be out in 2016?

It is under active/funded development.  Generally expected in the summer, but could be sooner or later.

[TPTB_need_war]

I just dont understand why Monero is still underpriced, it should be atleast 0.01 if not more

Because Monero has only been marketed to speculators who want to chase the quick money pumps. And Monero can't be pumped because it was mined too fairly.

Monero is slowly building its momentum as Bitcoin crumbles. I don't know if this strategy will pay off, but it may as open source tends to gobble up the failed projects. The chart relative to BTC is very bullish as showed in my prior post.

To accelerate Monero's path would afaics require a different tactic (e.g. building some killer app and marketing for user adoption) which afaics is antithetical to its open source modus operandi. And such a tactic may be an incorrect approach.

[explorer]

What's crazy is the idea that the average joe will want to run a node for some whiz-bang e-money just because he can... never mind the fact that he has no reason to.

A bundled GUI only increases accessibility to the few crypto-conscious individuals already in the space. Joe Blow doesn't have a good reason to run his own node, GUI or not. Making something easier doesn't automatically make anyone want or need it.

There are lots of things that can make XMR approachable to wider adoption. Mobile apps with easy messaging as an abstraction layer for payments, point-of-sale tools and services for in-person purchases, easier exchange services from/to fiat, etc. would all be greatly helpful.

But a core GUI won't increase adoption significantly, because average users won't be running their own nodes anyway.

Sure, I don't run a node for Btc, but that coin is several iterations past efficient CPU mining. But Monero, afaict, will be still CPU mineable, right? THAT's my motive for running a node. As someone else here pointed out, going through the hoops to mine Monero NOW is a "chore". But once the gui is out, if it has one-click smart mining, I'm there! Giving everyone a motive and an easy way to run a node is decentralization in action, as exciting in its way as fungibility and privacy!

I also was waiting for the GUI and easy mining, having briefly tried and failed to set up in early 2014.  I just didn't choose to dedicate the time to it, expecting improvements to be more rapid (no complaints, my donations have been small, and my time and equipment lacking anyway) Today I started to sync the blockchain on windows64, and will give it another go when it eventually catches up.  I don't expect much out of my laptop, but it is a good learning experience for when I finally get other resources online.  The GUI is a long awaited exciting development, and will create positive buzz no matter when it is finally released.

[newb4now]

I also was waiting for the GUI and easy mining, having briefly tried and failed to set up in early 2014. 

I am embarrassed to say that I actually was interested in DASH (in early 2014) before XMR partially because I thought it was more user friendly and could scale faster. 

Now that I am better educated I understand why their "technology" will never work. There are probably a lot of people who thought like I did back then and will switch to XMR as it becomes more and more user friendly. An official GUI and a few high profile merchants integrating XMR will accelerate this process.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I also was waiting for the GUI and easy mining, having briefly tried and failed to set up in early 2014. 

I am embarrassed to say that I actually was interested in DASH (in early 2014) before XMR partially because I thought it was more user friendly and could scale faster. 

Now that I am better educated I understand why their "technology" will never work. There are probably a lot of people who thought like I did back then and will switch to XMR as it becomes more and more user friendly. An official GUI and a few high profile merchants integrating XMR will accelerate this process.

All of the btc merchants are also XMR merchants.

[newb4now]

I also was waiting for the GUI and easy mining, having briefly tried and failed to set up in early 2014.  

I am embarrassed to say that I actually was interested in DASH (in early 2014) before XMR partially because I thought it was more user friendly and could scale faster.  

Now that I am better educated I understand why their "technology" will never work. There are probably a lot of people who thought like I did back then and will switch to XMR as it becomes more and more user friendly. An official GUI and a few high profile merchants integrating XMR will accelerate this process.

All of the btc merchants are also XMR merchants.

Most people reading this thread know that but the general public does not. I wish the world knew about xmr.to and shapeshift. Direct merchant acceptance will improve Monero visibility.

[GingerAle]

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

With all due respect, what you're saying is crazy.

Of course a bundled GUI will result in new adoption. You can't just assume that everyone knows how to use terminal.... they don't.

The userbase associated with a $1B marketcap is not the same userbase as a cabal of niche crypto-developers who take certain technological fundamentals for granted.

It should also be patently obvious that an easy-to-use GUI gives confidence to third-parties who may be mulling over integration.

What's crazy is the idea that the average joe will want to run a node for some whiz-bang e-money just because he can... never mind the fact that he has no reason to.

A bundled GUI only increases accessibility to the few crypto-conscious individuals already in the space. Joe Blow doesn't have a good reason to run his own node, GUI or not. Making something easier doesn't automatically make anyone want or need it.

There are lots of things that can make XMR approachable to wider adoption. Mobile apps with easy messaging as an abstraction layer for payments, point-of-sale tools and services for in-person purchases, easier exchange services from/to fiat, etc. would all be greatly helpful.

But a core GUI won't increase adoption significantly, because average users won't be running their own nodes anyway.

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

What about the idea that poor ease-of-use serves as a deterrent to third party integrations and services?

I think that was the case 12 months ago, but not anymore. Besides, the lack of a GUI seems like it would be less of a deterrent to the third parties doing the integrations and more of a deterrent to the end users who care about running their own node yet somehow lack the knowledge to use the CLI.

I could be wrong of course. But when the GUI comes out and not much changes, I won't be surprised.

Yeah, I'm in this boat as well. There will probably be a mini spike. But it won't moonshot us. And I also agree that it won't add significantly to the network infrastructure due to the lack of PCs out there, hence my monerodo push. Ultimately I often struggle to see what "adoption" actually means beyond speculation and store of value. I'm a relatively simple man. I get paid, then I spend that money on bills and food. There's nothing really else that I *do* with my money. So until I get paid in bitcoin and the supermarket, gas station, and electric company take monero, I wouldn't even consider myself an adopter.

Now what does fascinate me is the prospect of using Monero, and the monero network, as the backend for other services. Cryptocurrencies are, after all, a unit of account.

[phishead]

It seems absurd and at the same time exhilarating at the thought of monero surpassing bitcoin in the near future. It seems possible but not likely.

It depends on what you mean in terms of "surpassing" Bitcoin.  Price wise will be difficult, because people tend to be hesitant to change... that's just a natural part of nature as well as human nature; law of inertia is no joke.

But if you are talking in terms of functionality and usability, we are half way there.  There is certainly a learning curve, where people who are newer to crypto currencies, programming, etc. (like me) have a difficult time trying to figure out all there has to know about how to set up a node, mine, and so on to help the network; as well as securing your coins properly in cold storage.

Now in terms of functionality, it seems Monero has already surpassed the shit out of bitcoin... theoretically that is.  Of course, we haven't seen as much transaction on our blockchain like what Bitcoin has; but to my mind, the unlimited capabilities of what dynamic block sizes allows users to do, as well as remaining completely anonymous while using a coin that will never "taint" in any way is completely revolutionary.

What I like about science and technology, is that it doesn't have an ego... unfortunately though, the people that use it and market it do. 

[persiancat]

This could be a reason for BTC's minor selldown last week.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/3/2/11146584/bitcoin-core-classic-debate-transaction-limit-crisis

Another thing that this article confirms is that Chinese BTC miners already control >51% of worldwide hashing power. They can effectively influence the future direction of bitcoin development roadmap.

Seeing as to how they voted to continue mining with Bitcoin Core, perhaps they are worried about liquidity of their vast(?) bitcoin holdings should they wish to sell it one day (given that the vast majority of their mined coins come from the Classic fork).

A related question to the issue of centralization of hashing power is this : what is to prevent a coalition of determined, wealthy, well-equipped miners from accumulating the majority of hashing votes for any up-and-coming bitcoin alternatives in the future?

[Johnny Mnemonic]

A bundled GUI only increases accessibility to the few crypto-conscious individuals already in the space. Joe Blow doesn't have a good reason to run his own node, GUI or not. Making something easier doesn't automatically make anyone want or need it.

No it doesn't just do that. It is a decongestant that effectively lays the foundations for future expansion - both social and technical. It is clearing the decks and is level up - a significant milestone for Monero, not just in terms of service advancement but also in terms of demonstrable management and group industry.

It's a major achievement and a whole new chapter in Monero's future, and thus is a perfect modulator for market action which increases market volume and speculator interest, hence bringing increased vibrancy into the whole Monero ecosystem.

Nothing in this response explained how a core GUI would increase usage outside of the crypto niche.

What's crazy is the idea that the average joe will want to run a node for some whiz-bang e-money just because he can... never mind the fact that he has no reason to.

A bundled GUI only increases accessibility to the few crypto-conscious individuals already in the space. Joe Blow doesn't have a good reason to run his own node, GUI or not. Making something easier doesn't automatically make anyone want or need it.

There are lots of things that can make XMR approachable to wider adoption. Mobile apps with easy messaging as an abstraction layer for payments, point-of-sale tools and services for in-person purchases, easier exchange services from/to fiat, etc. would all be greatly helpful.

But a core GUI won't increase adoption significantly, because average users won't be running their own nodes anyway.

Sure, I don't run a node for Btc, but that coin is several iterations past efficient CPU mining. But Monero, afaict, will be still CPU mineable, right? THAT's my motive for running a node. As someone else here pointed out, going through the hoops to mine Monero NOW is a "chore". But once the gui is out, if it has one-click smart mining, I'm there! Giving everyone a motive and an easy way to run a node is decentralization in action, as exciting in its way as fungibility and privacy!

Only crypto-anarchists and privacy activists give a shit about smart mining and decentralization. None of that appeals to a wider audience, who just want an easy way to spend their money (not hosting a full node). Do you really think regular people are concerned with those features?

[iCEBREAKER]

Only crypto-anarchists and privacy activists give a shit about smart mining and decentralization. None of that appeals to a wider audience, who just want an easy way to spend their money (not hosting a full node). Do you really think regular people are concerned with those features?

20 years ago, only "crypto-anarchists and privacy activists" actually gave a shit about securing personal data with encryption.

Then some celeb i-pads got hacked, Snowden won an Oscar, and the .gov demanded Apple destroy their own products' utility.

Anyway, here is some light reading on the history of digital cash in science fiction:

https://web.archive.org/web/20150510234837/http://garzikrants.blogspot.com/2013/06/shadowrun-and-bitcoins-roots.html

Note the credsticks are *not* being used to buy coffee....