[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TPTB_need_war]

Of course you are going to write a presumption that attacks me, even I didn't write what you just presumed. I don't see question market on your accusation. Do you have any facts to back up that slander?

Not slander at all ... intended to use a question mark.  I was just summarizing this long self analysis that you are rattling on about in the speculation thread.  I figured if I summarized those interested could digest it quicker.

'Backsplaining'. Your summary didn't even apply any accurate mental effort. How can you write a summary that presumes what wasn't written.  That is not the definition of a summary.

[TPTB_need_war]

To trade silver you do not need a dealer do you.

You do if you want to have physical in the Philippines.

The presumptions you guys make. Do you think I am total clueless idiot and I wouldn't know that.

When Jason Hommel was holding my silver it is because that was 2007 and I had only started gaining interest in precious metals in 2006 for the first time in my life. The first time I ever held a gold coin was in 2006. I had no clue where and how to buy the stuff and I got into it because of Hommel, so I trusted him. Obviously after the $21 incident, I learned very fast.

Realize at that time I was more interested in programming and technical pursuits and I viewed the management of my savings as a side show. So I wanted it to be convenient so it wouldn't disrupt my main vocation and interests. And I was also traveling to Asia and I didn't have any one to manage my affairs in the USA. And that is why I am telling you  I don't have the correct lifestyle and situation to be a speculator.

[rdnkjdi]

Of course you are going to write a presumption that attacks me, even I didn't write what you just presumed. I don't see question market on your accusation. Do you have any facts to back up that slander?

Not slander at all ... intended to use a question mark.  I was just summarizing this long self analysis that you are rattling on about in the speculation thread.  I figured if I summarized those interested could digest it quicker.

'Backsplaining'. Your summary didn't even apply any accurate mental effort. How can you write a summary that presumes what wasn't written.   That is not the definition of a summary.

What did I presume that wasn't written?

TPTB accurately predicts things but has had bad life luck that's lost him money by things out of his control (was unable to sell silver even though it was at it's all time high and he wanted to.  Was desperate to make money due to domestic reasons).  Also let someone talk him into a bad investment even though he knew it was a bad investment. 

How is that inaccurate?  Now we can move on instead of debating your abilities.

[TPTB_need_war]

Of course you are going to write a presumption that attacks me, even I didn't write what you just presumed. I don't see question market on your accusation. Do you have any facts to back up that slander?

Not slander at all ... intended to use a question mark.  I was just summarizing this long self analysis that you are rattling on about in the speculation thread.  I figured if I summarized those interested could digest it quicker.

'Backsplaining'. Your summary didn't even apply any accurate mental effort. How can you write a summary that presumes what wasn't written.   That is not the definition of a summary.

What did I presume that wasn't written?

TPTB accurately predicts things but has had bad life luck that's lost him money by things out of his control (was unable to sell silver even though it was at it's all time high and he wanted to.  Was desperate to make money due to domestic reasons).  How is that inaccurate?  Now we can move on instead of debating your abilities.

I don't know why you can't read what you write:

So basically you're awesome at predictions but you don't make any money due to emergencies that always hit you between the eyes whenever you get close to winning big.

Yep.  Still going for pretty damn accurate summary.

How is saying I always lose money on every trade any where close to reality when I had already stated that I bought silver at $8 and $9 during the crash. Fuck man. Disingenuous much.

[rdnkjdi]

Yep.  Still going for pretty damn accurate summary.

So it looks to me like XMR has bottomed.  I could be way off but this is a lot of volume compared to what I remember XMR being several months ago (500K).  Also this is really going to be the last several months that Monero has reasonable emissions in my opinion.

At some point it feels like Monero has to go past Dash.  The only thing I can really come up with is that the artificial controls for the Dash emission combined with the super high XMR inflation rate early on has really skewed with the market caps on both.  I feel like it's pretty safe to assume that Monero jumps past Dash this year.  After that I don't know.

If an anon currency came in that cleaned up and made Monero obsolete AND bitcoin tanked to the point of a market depression hitting and all alts outside of whoever is leading (bitcoin / ethereum) then I suppose Monero would drop further.  But outside of that event it's really hard for me to see the downside being all that much compared to the upside.

[TrueCryptonaire]

To trade silver you do not need a dealer do you.

You do if you want to have physical in the Philippines.

The presumptions you guys make. Do you think I am total clueless idiot and I wouldn't know that.

When Jason Hommel was holding my silver it is because that was 2007 and I had only started gaining interest in precious metals in 2006 for the first time in my life. The first time I ever held a gold coin was in 2006. I had no clue where and how to buy the stuff and I got into it because of Hommel, so I trusted him. Obviously after the $21 incident, I learned very fast.

Realize at that time I was more interested in programming and technical pursuits and I viewed the management of my savings as a side show. So I wanted it to be convenient so it wouldn't disrupt my main vocation and interests. And I was also traveling to Asia and I didn't have any one to manage my affairs in the USA. And that is why I am telling you  I don't have the correct lifestyle and situation to be a speculator.

I am not here to slander you.. I am here just to have discussion. I am indeed interested in knowing what the future will bring us because I can monetize it. That's why I am here pretty much, learning from wiser people and indeed I am curious/interested in your predictions if you have a track record of great success, and obviously you do not even need to be always completely right, it is enough you are more right than wrong and that there is bigger reward for being right than the financial punishment for being wrong.

Personally I traded also the silver break out in 2011 and I did it with 4 times leverage via online broker. I made killing, I remember I was walking on the streets of Vaasa city (those of you who do not know, it is a city on the west coast of Finland) and I lurked my trading account approximately worth of 10 000 euros growing like heck. The feeling was magnificient and it was fast ride... I think I did not hold the position open the whole ride though so I could potentially have been made more money (I had the position open for some time though, it was so called "swing trade").

At some point in 2010-2011 I even installed some kind of btc wallet when it came but I found btc too technical for me and I gave up with it. It was the biggest mistake of my investing. Too close to be there but yet did not search enough to make it happen. Wise people will learn from my mistakes and the smart ones will learn from their own mistakes.

[TPTB_need_war]

I told you guys a month or so ago, that XMR had broken out against BTC and that it wouldn't make lower lows w.r.t. to BTC, but you needed to sell some because the market is going to be incredibly volatile and bear market directed until later this year or Q1 2017.

I explained the reason in my prior post, if you click off to read the detailed post, you will learn something.

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need. I called the first top in ETH, then the overall top in March before others did. I called the rise of silver from $25 to $48 and decline to $26 on Oct 2010 many months before it occurred. I called various moves in Bitcoin such as predicting on this forums last April or May that Bitcoin would rally to $320 then decline.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1055263.msg11329427#msg11329427

We are going below $150 (within several months) before we go to $1000 again some years later.

May 09, 2015

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1049048.msg11379311#msg11379311

This is why I am saying the gold and BTC will make their final and lower lows this year.

May 15, 2015

Go to Cyperdoc's thread and find my predictions for the rise to $320 and then the decline.

Here is the explanation of the delayed timing of the expected selloff low in gold (and by correlation my expectation of selloff low in crypto):

[...]

I consistently stated that I thought the capitulation low would be < $150, perhaps < $100. Last May I predicted the rise to $320 exactly and expected it could begin the decline to the expected bottom. You can find the discussion mostly in kLee's PnF thread in Speculation forum. You find there my exact prediction stating that it could rise back up to maximum of $450 (or maybe I said $400 to $500 range) before making the decline to $150. I also stated that I would be stopped out at $380 if that scenario played out and had I been short (but later I realized had I been short from $320, I would have closed my shorts in the mid-$200s as it was meandering there). The $400 - $500 level was based on some chart analysis and the details are in that PnF thread. Around August or so with the approachin 2015.75, I was on the lookout as to whether the decline to the bottom would come precipitously. But then someone shared with me a copy of Armstrong's gold report and I became  aware that the predicted low was roughly March 2016. So then I began to expect the final capitulation low would come Q1 2016. I stated this publicly. I also had more confirmation that Bitcoin was going to rise again when it meandered in the mid-$200s.

As for a double-bottom or whether the bottom with be V shaped or U shaped, I don't have any ideas other than I expect the crash of Bitcoin is going to be due to fundamentals such as the realization that the Chinese miners control Bitcoin. And thus I don't expect any quick rise back up.

Actually it is very difficult now to analyze the future of crypto. I just know I see an incredible opportunity for me given I have a design which solves these technical problems, so I need to busy coding and not posting about these matters.

Another perspective could be that Bitcoin will be centralized and the block chain size increased and that we've already seen the bottom at the V bottom dip to $150 before.

Note since writing that Armstrong has clarified more his sling shot timing and also the timing of the low, so it has dragged out a couple to few more months. This is because the Fed decided to rescue Europe by not raising interest rates, which is going to make the rise much more precipitous when it comes.

That is what my post that started this discussion was detailing.

[rdnkjdi]

Actually fed is talking about negative interest rates.  So if raising rates is required for your predictions then it might be awhile.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/11/news/economy/negative-interest-rates-janet-yellen/

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-16/why-negative-interest-rates-will-fail

Seems like insanity to me.

[TrueCryptonaire]

TPTB_need_war, what do you think, will XMR be more expensive in June that is is now or will it be cheaper?

[TPTB_need_war]

TPTB_need_war, what do you think, will XMR be more expensive in June that is is now or will it be cheaper?

I can only predict (potentially wild) volatility until after gold bottoms and the stock market lifts off in earnest indicating the move into private assets has begun (which is looking to be later this year or Q1 2017, with the big phase transition rise more towards 2018). This will coincide with chaos as the public realizes that government is corrupt. I believe crypto-currencies are going to rocket upwards no later than the 2017 - 2018 timeframe. I believe that XMR has a good chance of being a big gainer compared to BTC.

But I would not be rushing to buy and instead buying only when the market handed me cheap XMR. I would let the market decide if I buy more, and not force myself to ideologically buy XMR (unless ideology was my goal).

Rational accumulation mode. Anyone expecting gains in the next months is not emotionally ready to invest in this.

Edit: I thought the point of investing in XMR was to acquire more BTC. The big payoff will come on the next big upward move for crypto. I think this current bounce is a deadcat. We have a huge delay in the rise of the interest rates because Larry Summers thinks he can manipulate the world. We have to get through the BREXIT vote and the USA Presidential election, before people realize that government is hopeless. The Panama Papers has kicked it into higher gear. It is all coming as predicted by Armstrong's model.

[Quicken]

I told you guys a month or so ago, that XMR had broken out against BTC and that it wouldn't make lower lows w.r.t. to BTC, but you needed to sell some because the market is going to be incredibly volatile and bear market directed until later this year or Q1 2017.

I explained the reason in my prior post, if you click off to read the detailed post, you will learn something.

No one listens to me  even though I am nearly always correct on the markets. How many examples would you need. I called the first top in ETH, then the overall top in March before others did. I called the rise of silver from $25 to $48 and decline to $26 on Oct 2010 many months before it occurred. I called various moves in Bitcoin such as predicting on this forums last April or May that Bitcoin would rally to $320 then decline.

So, it sounds like you are criticising everyone else for not trading based on your calls, when you didn't trade based on your calls. Correct?

[elrippo]

Man, this is truly boring stuff based on looking into the crystal ball and make assumptions of

Code:

if x > y² = !z then goto a+(bc³) when mymomtoldmethatiamgrownup

I feel sorry for your illness and your ex getting on your nervs, but guys, this is a XMR SPECULATION THREAD, not an emergency relief coordinator gathering.

SO, can we all come down and focus to the root of this thread please, thank you 

[TPTB_need_war]

So, it sounds like you are criticising everyone else for not trading based on your calls, when you didn't trade based on your calls. Correct?

I am criticizing those who think I haven't made a lot of correct calls, including the posts I made in this thread stating to sell some into the recent rally.

And I think it would be crazy to not read the post I made today that details the logic about the emergency Fed meeting and the coming rising interest rates and effects (by 2017).

[spatula]

At some point it feels like Monero has to go past Dash.  The only thing I can really come up with is that the artificial controls for the Dash emission combined with the super high XMR inflation rate early on has really skewed with the market caps on both.  I feel like it's pretty safe to assume that Monero jumps past Dash this year.  After that I don't know.

If an anon currency came in that cleaned up and made Monero obsolete AND bitcoin tanked to the point of a market depression hitting and all alts outside of whoever is leading (bitcoin / ethereum) then I suppose Monero would drop further.  But outside of that event it's really hard for me to see the downside being all that much compared to the upside.

Historically, there have been a lot of similarities in the ups and downs when comparing XMR and DASH against BTC. I really doubt XMR can move (in either direction) 4x compared to DASH in the near future, as that would be a crazy big de-coupling.

I think lots of investors are diversifying their privacy coin portfolio into both DASH and XMR, making that large of a decoupling unlikely.

However, with DASH moving development focus away from solely privacy features to other areas in the crypto-realm, that could make the market no longer see DASH as a privacy-centric only coin which could help or hurt.

[elrippo]

Man, this is truly boring stuff based on looking into the crystal ball and make assumptions of

Code:

if x > y² = !z then goto a+(bc³) when mymomtoldmethatiamgrownup

I feel sorry for your illness and your ex getting on your nervs, but guys, this is a XMR SPECULATION THREAD, not an emergency relief coordinator gathering.

SO, can we all come down and focus to the root of this thread please, thank you 

[TPTB_need_war]

Man, this is truly boring stuff based on looking into the crystal ball and make assumptions of

Code:

if x > y² = !z then goto a+(bc³) when mymomtoldmethatiamgrownup

I feel sorry for your illness and your ex getting on your nervs, but guys, this is a XMR SPECULATION THREAD, not an emergency relief coordinator gathering.

SO, can we all come down and focus to the root of this thread please, thank you 

Quoting this as a reminder of the fact that you think rising interest rates and the other aspects I pointed out have no bearing whatsoever on the outcome of the general market nor crypto-currency.

Btw, if you haven't noticed, this is an XMR SPECULATION THREAD. I posted information that is relevant.

Since I see you are only interested in comparing the size of your ego, and not on relevant speculation analysis, then I will be instructed not to post relevant information in this thread again. Thanks.

[TPTB_need_war]

I really doubt XMR can move (in either direction) 4x compared to DASH in the near future, as that would be a crazy big de-coupling.

I guess that Dash depends on one person who has been ostensibly toying with securities law and FinCEN regulatory jurisdication isn't a big risk of waterfall divergence. I won't even get into technical risks.

Is that irrelevant enough to suit egos here?

[TPTB_need_war]

Actually fed is talking about negative interest rates.  So if raising rates is required for your predictions then it might be awhile.

Sorry to be so frank, but do you have the inability to see certain words in what I write? Did you entirely miss the part where I wrote that the market controls interest rates and not the Fed. Btw, I also referred to the shrinking monetary base.

[rdnkjdi]

Actually fed is talking about negative interest rates.  So if raising rates is required for your predictions then it might be awhile.

Sorry to be so frank, but do you have the inability to see certain words in what I write? Did you entirely miss the part where I wrote that the market controls interest rates and not the Fed. Btw, I also referred to the shrinking monetary base.

Note since writing that Armstrong has clarified more his sling shot timing and also the timing of the low, so it has dragged out a couple to few more months. This is because the Fed decided to rescue Europe by not raising interest rates, which is going to make the rise much more precipitous when it comes.

That is what my post that started this discussion was detailing

Ah - yes.  I missed it.  My bad.

[TPTB_need_war]

The Fed tries to control confidence. Panama Papers was another blow. The globalists are doing this shit. They are doing creative destruction on their nation-states to usher in the new global monetary reserve unit that won't be owned by any country. Armstrong thinks it is just the natural outcome and not coordinated. I think it is both, the coordination is a natural outcome. Doesn't really matter if I am correct or not, except that I see the coming global monetary reserve unit as a repeat of the Euro slavery model of loaning in undebased currency and forcing the slaves to pay back in debased economies, but on a global scale. Debt forgiveness is not allowed, increase the debt to pay the debt.