[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

Can somebody please direct me to the Monero Speculation thread?

Several life times ago I moved out of a r0ach infested apartment.  I washed and vacuumed everything before I placed those things in a box that had boric acid in it.  I then sealed the boxes with tape.  I then loaded up a rented truck and set off a few r0ach bombs.  I did not open the truck till the following day.  I moved the stuff in to the new place which was r0ach free, the whole neighborhood was r0ach free.  Within a couple of days I saw r0aches.  Maybe they came from one entity.

Yes, yes I know, it's the second elephant.

[1714671871]

1714671871

[1714671871]

1714671871

[1714671871]

1714671871

[dEBRUYNE]

Interestingly Coinmarketcap now also lists volume of XMR pairs, in addition to the XMR/BTC pairs, see:

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#markets

[r0ach]

How does this coin go from 180 BTC to 1000 BTC, then back to some negligible number over and over again buy support - repeat cycle to infinity.  Let's summon the relevant MatTheCat quotes:

This Bullshit aint the work of an aggregate market.

it is futile trying to read these markets

these markets are just not to be traded

I can't reasonably expect to be able to play these markets

[ArticMine]

How does this coin go from 180 BTC to 1000 BTC, then back to some negligible number over and over again buy support - repeat cycle to infinity.

Take a look at market cap rather than price over the last two years to see what is really going on. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/monero/#charts.

Market Cap measures the valuation the market places on the whole project. For a stock price is an excellent proxy for market cap. For an ICO coin such as Ethereum, or a massive premine/ninjamine such as Bytecoin  price is a reasonable proxy for market cap since the the subsequent POW emission is small when compared to the initial number of coins. Even for a significant instamine such as Dash it is questionable at best.

For a POW coin that is mined from the Genesis block with an emission curve comparable to that of Bitcoin or Monero price fails completely as a proxy for market cap during the first years. Let us say when the annualized inflation rate is above 10%. This is something one should keep in mind when considering technical analysis.

Bitcoin Bull Bear: I respect your work a lot; however the technical analysis for Monero, Dash and Ethereum are fundamentally different for the above reason.

[r0ach]

Um, I know how market cap works.  My question is, who are these lunatics constantly manipulating XMR buy side walls to such extents.  For example, on BitFinex right now, there's some guy who adds +2000 BTC to wall when he wants price to go up and removes 2000 BTC support when he wants to buy (it's currently down).  This is only around 20% of the wall total.  On XMR, the "float" of manipulation is 80% of the wall instead of 20% lol.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Usually it is a great selling opportunity when we have the walls.
I am not giving any trading advice here - everybody shall do their own due diligence.
I am a buyer when XMR hits 0.001 (probably during the upcoming 6-7 months).

[americanpegasus]

A picture is worth a thousand words.  Indeed, the lifetime market cap does tell a completely different story.

[wpalczynski]

IMHO when people will be able to liquidate their DAO ETH will dump hard and ALTS will drop too.  Many people who bought ETH for the DAO pump are sitting in 50% + profits, not a bad gain to lock in.

[Nxtblg]

Just checked out that waves for a second and have a question. It says "Introducing WAVES, ultimate crypto-platform for asset/custom token issuance, transfer, and trading on blockchain.", I thought that is what NXT was supposed to be?

Nxt was supposed to be that, amongst other things, but it never really got off the ground in that area because Nxt is still trying to be the "Linux of crypto" - ie, a one-stop shop.

[ArticMine]

Um, I know how market cap works.  My question is, who are these lunatics constantly manipulating XMR buy side walls to such extents.  For example, on BitFinex right now, there's some guy who adds +2000 BTC to wall when he wants price to go up and removes 2000 BTC support when he wants to buy (it's currently down).  This is only around 20% of the wall total.  On XMR, the "float" of manipulation is 80% of the wall instead of 20% lol.

Fake walls can backfire big time when a whale who is a long term player decides to buy or sell against the wall with minimal slippage.

[ztrader2016]

Usually it is a great selling opportunity when we have the walls.
I am not giving any trading advice here - everybody shall do their own due diligence.
I am a buyer when XMR hits 0.001 (probably during the upcoming 6-7 months).

Hey there XMR perma-bear Scrooge McDuck. This Coinigy one month chart tells a different story about XMR being in a new uptrend since the 18th:

https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/5740dd00/

It's possible we'll never see 0.001 range again...

[smooth]

I personnaly think we are waiting for the best part of ETH pump.

Lol, and who is going to buy be the buyer?

You need to get out more. The whole world isn't crypto traders moving from coin to coin. Many people who have barely heard of crypto at all (certainly have heard of little beyond Bitcoin) are starting to follow Eth/DAO now. That does't mean they will all invest, but it also doesn't mean they won't.

Coinbase is adding ETH to their exchange. It's not in the wallet, but it's only a click away. That's an easy onramp for 500 million (or more?) potential investors.

[ztrader2016]

IMHO when people will be able to liquidate their DAO ETH will dump hard and ALTS will drop too.  Many people who bought ETH for the DAO pump are sitting in 50% + profits, not a bad gain to lock in.

Alts aren't connected to the rise and fall of ETH. That idea is just ridiculous. I've witnessed many alts going up when ETH goes down over the previous months.

[orinoco]

Back OT..

Looks like we're going to pull back to 19.5k-20k, then I think the 4-week cup and handle will complete, and next leg (next weekend?) will push up to 33k.

[ztrader2016]

Back OT..

Looks like we're going to pull back to 19.5k-20k, then I think the 4-week cup and handle will complete, and next leg (next weekend?) will push up to 33k.

I don't think so there is 300 BTC between us and 200k.

A slow day doesn't signal a trend reversal. We are still in uptrend but until volume picks up we may slow our ascend or go sideways until volume picks up.

Personally I wouldn't sell I'd just be patient. The sell side hasn't increased and the supply is quite limited compared to the demand.

[kingorbust]

IMHO when people will be able to liquidate their DAO ETH will dump hard and ALTS will drop too.  Many people who bought ETH for the DAO pump are sitting in 50% + profits, not a bad gain to lock in.

so when will this happen? Funding of DAO ends on 27th but I dont think they can just cash out? So when is the first date when many can liquidate DAO?

[smooth]

IMHO when people will be able to liquidate their DAO ETH will dump hard and ALTS will drop too.  Many people who bought ETH for the DAO pump are sitting in 50% + profits, not a bad gain to lock in.

so when will this happen? Funding of DAO ends on 27th but I dont think they can just cash out? So when is the first date when many can liquidate DAO?

You can dump on an exchange as soon as it starts trading, but to actually withdraw your ETH from the DAO takes quite a while. I've read around a month and a half. First you have to split your shares from the main DAO, which takes time, then you would need to make and approve a proposal within your own DAO to pay out the ETH, and the proposal process a minimum required time period.

[phishead]

IMHO when people will be able to liquidate their DAO ETH will dump hard and ALTS will drop too.  Many people who bought ETH for the DAO pump are sitting in 50% + profits, not a bad gain to lock in.

so when will this happen? Funding of DAO ends on 27th but I dont think they can just cash out? So when is the first date when many can liquidate DAO?

You can dump on an exchange as soon as it starts trading, but to actually withdraw your ETH from the DAO takes quite a while. I've read around a month and a half. First you have to split your shares from the main DAO, which takes time, then you would need to make and approve a proposal within your own DAO to pay out the ETH, and the proposal process a minimum required time period.

I guess I've been out of the loop for a long time, but what is a DAO? I'm guessing an exchange?  Also, can you technically send Eth from wallet "wallet" to the next like a normal crypto?

[smooth]

IMHO when people will be able to liquidate their DAO ETH will dump hard and ALTS will drop too.  Many people who bought ETH for the DAO pump are sitting in 50% + profits, not a bad gain to lock in.

so when will this happen? Funding of DAO ends on 27th but I dont think they can just cash out? So when is the first date when many can liquidate DAO?

You can dump on an exchange as soon as it starts trading, but to actually withdraw your ETH from the DAO takes quite a while. I've read around a month and a half. First you have to split your shares from the main DAO, which takes time, then you would need to make and approve a proposal within your own DAO to pay out the ETH, and the proposal process a minimum required time period.

I guess I've been out of the loop for a long time, but what is a DAO? I'm guessing an exchange?  Also, can you technically send Eth from wallet "wallet" to the next like a normal crypto?

The DAO everyone is talking about is something like a decentralized crowdfund or investment fund that has collected $150+ million worth of ETH in the past few weeks.

[phishead]

IMHO when people will be able to liquidate their DAO ETH will dump hard and ALTS will drop too.  Many people who bought ETH for the DAO pump are sitting in 50% + profits, not a bad gain to lock in.

so when will this happen? Funding of DAO ends on 27th but I dont think they can just cash out? So when is the first date when many can liquidate DAO?

You can dump on an exchange as soon as it starts trading, but to actually withdraw your ETH from the DAO takes quite a while. I've read around a month and a half. First you have to split your shares from the main DAO, which takes time, then you would need to make and approve a proposal within your own DAO to pay out the ETH, and the proposal process a minimum required time period.

I guess I've been out of the loop for a long time, but what is a DAO? I'm guessing an exchange?  Also, can you technically send Eth from wallet "wallet" to the next like a normal crypto?

The DAO everyone is talking about is something like a decentralized crowdfund or investment fund that has collected $150+ million worth of ETH in the past few weeks.

Woah, good lord... for what exactly?  The Eth community funded this, or who?