[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Monerobuyer0]

This buywall would make Trump proud.

Time to make Monero great again.

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[americanpegasus]

This buywall would make Trump proud.

Time to make Monero great again.

I am actually opening www.reddit.com/r/moonero as of today.  It will be the cryptocurrency equivalent of /r/the_donald, filled with inspiring memes and constant shitposting of little consequence.  Later tonight I'll be adding some snazzy css to make it look good.  
  
If you want to say something about Monero and feel like it doesn't add much to civil discourse, well now there's a subreddit for that.  So now the Monero subreddit family grows by one:  
  
Technology and Community: www.reddit.com/r/monero  
Price Speculation: www.reddit.com/r/moneromarkets  
Rampant Cheerleading and Dank Maymays: www.reddit.com/r/moonero

[phishead]

This buywall would make Trump proud.

Time to make Monero great again.

I am actually opening www.reddit.com/r/moonero as of today.  It will be the cryptocurrency equivalent of /r/the_donald, filled with inspiring memes and constant shitposting of little consequence.  Later tonight I'll be adding some snazzy css to make it look good.  
  
If you want to say something about Monero and feel like it doesn't add much to civil discourse, well now there's a subreddit for that.  So now the Monero subreddit family grows by one:  
  
Technology and Community: www.reddit.com/r/monero  
Price Speculation: www.reddit.com/r/moneromarkets  
Rampant Cheerleading and Dank Maymays: www.reddit.com/r/moonero

What on earth happened to /r/darkflarb , or whatever?

Honestly, I still don't understand why there is a need for /r/moneromarkets ... wouldn't /r/moonero and /r/moneromarkets posts kinda clash with each other?  Not to mention, the community is still really small on reddit compared to say /r/bitcoin or something like that, so to have all these multiple subreddits for such a small community is kind of pointless (in my opinion) than to just keep it all on /r/monero.  It's not like we can't joke around and have fun on the official monero subreddit in the first place.

[phishead]

Monero Speculation remains the thread with the most views and the most posts in the Altcoin Discussion.

What I find much more interesting however is the recent price action.

I know... Eth and Btc have been taking some hits just now...

I think the most recent "WTF is going on!?" moments I've been noticing on poloniex is siacoin over the last couple of days. 

[americanpegasus]

 

What on earth happened to /r/darkflarb , or whatever?

Honestly, I still don't understand why there is a need for /r/moneromarkets ... wouldn't /r/moonero and /r/moneromarkets posts kinda clash with each other?  Not to mention, the community is still really small on reddit compared to say /r/bitcoin or something like that, so to have all these multiple subreddits for such a small community is kind of pointless (in my opinion) than to just keep it all on /r/monero.  It's not like we can't joke around and have fun on the official monero subreddit in the first place.

 
  
/r/Moneromarkets aims to have regular price discussion there, and needmoney90 who is defacto running it doesn't even want individual price topics if it can be helped.  We hope to eventually grow it into a reasonably srs bsns subreddit like /r/Bitcoinmarkets.
  
As well, high quality jokes and fun are certainly still allowed on /r/Monero too within reason, but as I've heard fluffyponyza say, "let's keep a high signal to noise ratio".  The rest of that noise still needs to be made though, but it shouldn't necessarily happen on an official subreddit where people may come to honestly find information about the technology.  It was a hard choice between moonero and darkflarb but because darkflarb carries a slightly negative connotation I went with the former.  In fact, I'd even be willing to turn over /r/darkflarb to anyone who hates Monero and wanted to make an anti-XMR subreddit.  
  
The goal is not to police what content belongs where with an iron fist, but simply to give the Monero social scene a little more room to flex its wings.  Summer is coming, and further out I believe we will see some severe price increases in the next few years.  Jubilant people making money like to shitpost, and we need to have a containment zone in case that happens.

[phishead]

 

What on earth happened to /r/darkflarb , or whatever?

Honestly, I still don't understand why there is a need for /r/moneromarkets ... wouldn't /r/moonero and /r/moneromarkets posts kinda clash with each other?  Not to mention, the community is still really small on reddit compared to say /r/bitcoin or something like that, so to have all these multiple subreddits for such a small community is kind of pointless (in my opinion) than to just keep it all on /r/monero.  It's not like we can't joke around and have fun on the official monero subreddit in the first place.

 
  
/r/Moneromarkets aims to have regular price discussion there, and needmoney90 who is defacto running it doesn't even want individual price topics if it can be helped.  We hope to eventually grow it into a reasonably srs bsns subreddit like /r/Bitcoinmarkets.
  
As well, high quality jokes and fun are certainly still allowed on /r/Monero too within reason, but as I've heard fluffyponyza say, "let's keep a high signal to noise ratio".  The rest of that noise still needs to be made though, but it shouldn't necessarily happen on an official subreddit where people may come to honestly find information about the technology.  It was a hard choice between moonero and darkflarb but because darkflarb carries a slightly negative connotation I went with the former.  In fact, I'd even be willing to turn over /r/darkflarb to anyone who hates Monero and wanted to make an anti-XMR subreddit.  
  
The goal is not to police what content belongs where with an iron fist, but simply to give the Monero social scene a little more room to flex its wings.  Summer is coming, and further out I believe we will see some severe price increases in the next few years.  Jubilant people making money like to shitpost, and we need to have a containment zone in case that happens.

lol, maybe spotenik or primer will take you up on that...

I guess that makes sense though in terms for the future, but as of right now, I wouldn't expect those communities to be thriving from a "spilling over" effect from the main subreddit... kind of like /r/bitcoin --> /r/btc ...

It's not like it doesn't really matter, just my two neros.

[iCEBREAKER]

I tried to make a margin move and got caught with my hand in the cookie jar!

I was sorely tempted to go leveraged long at ~180k, but didn't due to

1. Pegasus' "don't be me" advice, and
2. my obscure 2FA device takes a while to boot up.

/shoulda woulda coulda   

[americanpegasus]

I was sorely tempted to go leveraged long at ~180k, but didn't due to

1. Pegasus' "don't be me" advice, and
2. my obscure 2FA device takes a while to boot up.

/shoulda woulda coulda  

 
  
You face a similar decision to two days ago.  The price is at 215k.  In a few weeks it might be at 450k, or 120k.  Either way, margin is gambling pure and simple.  As a highly visible member of the community, the only thing I can ethically recommend is that no one should ever buy Monero on margin, nor should ever short Monero..  
  
That said, the odds are probably more in your favor now than they were a month ago, but that is all you can surmise - relative probabilities.  There are still no guarantees about the future of the price.    
  
Proper investing is a different story: one can take a rational survey of all the different blockchains in existence and come to a conclusion that Monero is the best one - therefore parking your value in Monero and sitting isn't such a major gamble, in the long-long term.  Usually superior tech trumps all others (especially with this field of clowns we face).  You could still lose, but you would have lost making the best possible decision.  
  
But margin?  You have to predict that more people will buy more Monero now vs. later.  That's a hard damn thing to predict, and the moment you are margined your emotions will come into play.  It's also a zero sum game.  The only things that will truly make Monero more valuable are a.) more computers mining it and b.) more people believing it has value and desiring it.  Traders washing bits back and forth between themselves does nothing but add a little liquidity to the market and help price discovery.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Soon some consolidation around 0.0018-0.002 area with stability.
After that one more dead cat bounce which is the last selling opportunity before the deep and long dive.
0.004'ish price will be regained in spring 2017.

[r0ach]

Soon some consolidation around 0.0018-0.002 area with stability.
After that one more dead cat bounce which is the last selling opportunity before the deep and long dive.
0.004'ish price will be regained in spring 2017.

The Eth pumper has to dump before May 28th when the $150 million DAO denominated in Eth can dump on him.  Those two huge Eth dumps in a row will likely all be momentum traded back into BTC.  With Eth crashing and BTC rising, I think it's inevitable the rest of alts will be dumping too.

[Shrikez]

Soon some consolidation around 0.0018-0.002 area with stability.
After that one more dead cat bounce which is the last selling opportunity before the deep and long dive.
0.004'ish price will be regained in spring 2017.

Please TC....after all this time everyone in here knows your "TA" is based exactly on your trading positions and not the other way round.

I guess this makes you kind of a funny mascot but it is getting old. I really don't understand why you would choose the relatively contained volatility of XMR for your BTC accumulation. There are markets you could throw any way you wanted with your funds.

[r0ach]

Soon some consolidation around 0.0018-0.002 area with stability.
After that one more dead cat bounce which is the last selling opportunity before the deep and long dive.
0.004'ish price will be regained in spring 2017.

Please TC....after all this time everyone in here knows your "TA" is based exactly on your trading positions and not the other way round.

I guess this makes you kind of a funny mascot but it is getting old. I really don't understand why you would choose the relatively contained volatility of XMR for your BTC accumulation. There are markets you could throw any way you wanted with your funds.

I don't know what his past posts were, but that one is dead on.  We all know the Bologniex casino illogically trades as an index now, and Ethereum is in a bubble that will likely be sold off before BTC halving comes.  Unless he wants to lose money, the Eth pumper has to dump before May 28th when the ETH DAO can be sold - and the Eth charts are starting to look shaky now.  Once the Eth dump begins, all other alts will likely stop any upward momentum.  The Eth dump will be momentum traded into buying BTC for halving, and alts typically go down when BTC goes up.

It's probably over for Eth rise.  I wouldn't short it either since it's not an aggregate market and the single entity manipulating it would just try to squeeze you.  The only logical move is to exit that market completely.

[dEBRUYNE]

Soon some consolidation around 0.0018-0.002 area with stability.
After that one more dead cat bounce which is the last selling opportunity before the deep and long dive.
0.004'ish price will be regained in spring 2017.

Please TC....after all this time everyone in here knows your "TA" is based exactly on your trading positions and not the other way round.

I guess this makes you kind of a funny mascot but it is getting old. I really don't understand why you would choose the relatively contained volatility of XMR for your BTC accumulation. There are markets you could throw any way you wanted with your funds.

Guess he ought to change his signature back to the original one. At least (newer) people will know his intentions then.

[dEBRUYNE]

I was sorely tempted to go leveraged long at ~180k, but didn't due to

1. Pegasus' "don't be me" advice, and
2. my obscure 2FA device takes a while to boot up.

/shoulda woulda coulda  

 
  
You face a similar decision to two days ago.  The price is at 215k.  In a few weeks it might be at 450k, or 120k.  Either way, margin is gambling pure and simple.  As a highly visible member of the community, the only thing I can ethically recommend is that no one should ever buy Monero on margin, nor should ever short Monero..  
  
That said, the odds are probably more in your favor now than they were a month ago, but that is all you can surmise - relative probabilities.  There are still no guarantees about the future of the price.    
  
Proper investing is a different story: one can take a rational survey of all the different blockchains in existence and come to a conclusion that Monero is the best one - therefore parking your value in Monero and sitting isn't such a major gamble, in the long-long term.  Usually superior tech trumps all others (especially with this field of clowns we face).  You could still lose, but you would have lost making the best possible decision.  
  
But margin?  You have to predict that more people will buy more Monero now vs. later.  That's a hard damn thing to predict, and the moment you are margined your emotions will come into play.  It's also a zero sum game.  The only things that will truly make Monero more valuable are a.) more computers mining it and b.) more people believing it has value and desiring it.  Traders washing bits back and forth between themselves does nothing but add a little liquidity to the market and help price discovery.

I don't really agree with the bolded (shorting). Shorts provide usefull liquidity, both to the extent of volume and bids/asks (they have to buy back at some point). Also, if one doesn't use leverage whilst shorting it isn't really that more risky. A trader denominated in USD would prefer a short over "selling in order to buy back lower" any day.

[r0ach]

It's more like:  you don't short non-aggregate markets because it's the equivalent of throwing darts at a dartboard.

[sandiman]

Soon some consolidation around 0.0018-0.002 area with stability.
After that one more dead cat bounce which is the last selling opportunity before the deep and long dive.
0.004'ish price will be regained in spring 2017.

Please TC....after all this time everyone in here knows your "TA" is based exactly on your trading positions and not the other way round.

I guess this makes you kind of a funny mascot but it is getting old. I really don't understand why you would choose the relatively contained volatility of XMR for your BTC accumulation. There are markets you could throw any way you wanted with your funds.

I don't know what his past posts were, but that one is dead on.  We all know the Bologniex casino illogically trades as an index now, and Ethereum is in a bubble that will likely be sold off before BTC halving comes.  Unless he wants to lose money, the Eth pumper has to dump before May 28th when the ETH DAO can be sold - and the Eth charts are starting to look shaky now.  Once the Eth dump begins, all other alts will likely stop any upward momentum.  The Eth dump will be momentum traded into buying BTC for halving, and alts typically go down when BTC goes up.

It's probably over for Eth rise.  I wouldn't short it either since it's not an aggregate market and the single entity manipulating it would just try to squeeze you.  The only logical move is to exit that market completely.

snip

I personnaly think we are waiting for the best part of ETH pump. moreover, if you are expecting that only money coming from eth pump to fuel BTC pump, this would be one of the most boring pump in BTC history.

[r0ach]

I personnaly think we are waiting for the best part of ETH pump.

Lol, and who is going to buy be the buyer?  A large amount of people in Bitcoin have no interest in altcoins, let alone buying altcoins at the top of a bubble.  The pumpers can only pump as long as there are people to dump on.  The current charts show more willing Eth sellers than buyers.  The pumper knows this; he can take a gamble and try to go higher, but it would not be a rational move unless he can short squeeze.  Then he also has to make the calculation there are no shorters willing to out-muscle him.

The game theory to me says going higher would be a dangerous move.  I think it will either slide downwards to break that fib level, or he will try to manipulate it to go sideways to find people to dump on over a more drawn out period of time before May 28th hits and Eth implodes.

[numismatist]

I personnaly think we are waiting for the best part of ETH pump. moreover, if you are expecting that only money coming from eth pump to fuel BTC pump, this would be one of the most boring pump in BTC history.

Re-read yourself. pump-pump-pump-dump-pumppump-dump. There is no external money left. Enclosed caseings.

[sandiman]

I personnaly think we are waiting for the best part of ETH pump. moreover, if you are expecting that only money coming from eth pump to fuel BTC pump, this would be one of the most boring pump in BTC history.

Re-read yourself. pump-pump-pump-dump-pumppump-dump. There is no external money left. Enclosed caseings.

I was being sarcastic after the first ".".

I personnaly think we are waiting for the best part of ETH pump.

Lol, and who is going to buy be the buyer?  A large amount of people in Bitcoin have no interest in altcoins, let alone buying altcoins at the top of a bubble.  The pumpers can only pump as long as there are people to dump on.  The current charts show more willing Eth sellers than buyers.  The pumper knows this; he can take a gamble and try to go higher, but it would not be a rational move unless he can short squeeze.  Then he also has to make the calculation there are no shorters willing to out-muscle him.

The game theory to me says going higher would be a dangerous move.  I think it will either slide downwards to break that fib level, or he will try to manipulate it to go sideways to find people to dump on over a more drawn out period of time before May 28th hits and Eth implodes.

I think that part of the money invested in the DAO has been by new commers to the cryptocommunity. That why I do not believe in a strong correlation between what will happen to the DAO/ETH and BTC. Anyway, let's just watch closely what happens in the next week and see who was right. 

[r0ach]

I think that part of the money invested in the DAO has been by new commers to the cryptocommunity.

I don't.  The DAO was denominated in ETH and the ETH price wasn't going to the moon or anything while people were putting money into the DAO - meaning it's mostly just existing Eth holders.  Eth was clearly pumped by a single entity afterwards.