[XMR] Monero Speculation

[iCEBREAKER]

https://www.scribd.com/document/322004737/Bitfury-Shared-Send-Untangling-in-Bitcoin-20160821

Fascinating, thanks!

Conclusion

Shared send mixing is one of the major types of anonymization techniques in the Bitcoin network.Correspondingly, the problem of untangling shared send transactions (i.e., discovering value flowswithinthetransaction)hasgreatpracticalimportance.

Inthispaper,sharedsendmixingisformalizedusing graph notation. By proving NP-completeness of ambiguous transaction detection problem, we show that this measure to obfuscate transaction history is theoretically effective. However, both limitations on the blockchain space and presence of off-chain data can reduce the effectiveness of shared send mixing.

Our computational experiments show that detection and analysis of shared send mixers is possible in real time for the most of bitcoin transactions.

We also discover that mixing transactions occurquite often on the Bitcoin Blockchain; by our estimations, they constitute about 2.5% of all bitcointransactions. Interestingly, about half of these transactions are able to be untangled. Namely, theycan be uniquely split into two or more sub-transactions, allowing for the restoration of relationshipsamong addresses referenced in the transaction.Together with other data mining tools, analysis of shared send transactions forms the analyticalbackend for Bitfury’s Crystal Blockchain – a web service for blockchain investigations and analysis.The first public release of the service is scheduled soon after the publication of the present paper.

IIRC, the problem of Monero transaction untangling cannot be solved in polynomial time, because of ZKP not providing sufficient information to start the linking process (in a bounded/computable way).

I'm sure I've mangled something in the above explanation.  Factual clarification/correction of my casual understanding seems like an ideal candidate for StackExchange.   

[nioc]

Well, when people say MOON, Rocket starting, the Darknet buys Monero now and so on, that's all a very optimistic sight of what is actually happening. Like mentioned a few posts earlier to this, insider information, large bags of BTC to play with, manipulating some markets --> plural (did you watch the other noname coins yesterday), is obvious.

Of course i also would like to see XMR beeing the #1 cyrpto in the world used by everybody to do what everybody likes, but that is not the case, yet.
This IS manipulation, maybe the cashout of the bitfinex hack, and that is obvious. If you tell me this is "natural" growth of XMR, i would like to discus your arguments guys

What is "manipulation", really? What is "natural"?

Of course a component of the rally is speculation due to the news on DNMs. I would even bet it is the largest component. These last few days are completely unprecedented in Monero-land; the correlation with the news is extremely strong. Is this speculation "manipulation"? There are of course other components as well. You seem to be assigning a high (nay, overwhelming) % to some other "manipulation" by those with "large bags of BTC to play with".

The XMR market represents the current consensus on the price of XMR. Part of that consensus is "manipulation"; part is "natural"; part might be "other". No market participant is exactly like another. You do not and cannot *know* the intent of the market participants except yourself. You can thus only guess at what you think is going on. When you say in the affirmative "This IS manipulation", you declare that which you do not know.

You request "our" arguments for "natural" growth, but provide none for "manipulation" beyond that it "is obvious".

Wise words. Couldn't describe that better as you did now.

Besides obvious self interest a reason why people see things differently could be...  Blind men and the elephant.

[aminorex]

Besides obvious self interest a reason why people see things differently could be...  Blind men and the elephant.

Or different drugs!

Maybe some of us are mostly silicon?

Electrons are a helluva drug.

[antw081]

So... I guess I will be waiting for a retrace of 0.00420 to 0.00520 before I jump in XMR. With my luck the price is gonna rally way beyond 0.01 while I wait..... and do the opposite as soon as I get in. I just never win in crypto  


I do like that XMR has actual utility, which is more than you could say for 99% of altcoins. I do believe the price will increase from where it is today... but I HATE getting in right after a massive pump/no correction.....  and if there is no correction, I would hate getting in above 0.01 which was the ATH.... fuck crypto  

You got to decide if you are in it for the short term, or in it for the long term.

If you are in it for the short term profit, then frankly, I have no advise for you. Don't expect anyone to hold your profits at heart.

If you are in it for the long term, then you need to have belief in the fundamentals of this project (purpose of this coin, dev team, community etc). You gonna have to do research, invest the time, participate in the project and help out anyway you can to make it a success.

I first start buying into XMR back in 2014 when it was around $2.5 USD / XMR. I've held all the XMR I've bought and never sold once. From then up to very recently, I've mostly been in the RED with XMR.

For me, I don't want to sell XMR for BTC or fiat. I want to be able to spend XMR one day to buy goods & services freely and privately. 

[shmadz]

...getting into deep thoughts about XMR actually replacing BTC in 4-5 years

Why, in the name of all that is holy, would anyone use bitcoin and expose themselves to extortionists, kidnappers, and thieves (governmental, NGO, and freelancers), when an alternative exists?  XMR is now the single most liquid alternative.  The market, through the mechanism of price, will act to insure that there is enough liquidity to meet demand.

I personally have to agree with that bolded part.

I'm happy with my original core amount moving forward, I will not sell that. It is meant for a future world where I can buy whatever I want. The extra will be sold off in tranches as the price increases.

TL;DR the liquidity will be provided as demand increases. (Only in my opinion, I don't have the volume to supply the entire market, but I believe other rational actors will behave in a similar fashion)

*edited because I was being a douchebag*

[TrueCryptonaire]

Official sold LISK for XMR. Hello Team!


will only 5000 XMR be ok for me? - or will i be a poor man in my future? what is a "good amount" of this coin to hold?

I will be still learning from all of you thank you!!!!!!!!!!!


How many people hold over 10K coin of this?

how many people hold 5k ? -- if you have to make guess? I know there is no richlist so if any veteran XMR member can give me opinion

That really depends on how long are you planning to stay as a bagholder.
If you plan to hold it for the long haul, then I think you are quite well off but if you think to sell it on Sept 1st 2016 when Monero rises a few percentages then it is better to have it than not to have it I guess.
I have been holding a certain number of Moneros since summer 2014 and I am here for the long haul, it is possible Monero's price rise and Dark markets are just the beginning what is ahead of us. There are also decent normal people appreciating privacy.

As said earlier, 0.004-0.005 is pretty strong base and support level. It will be pretty hard to break it + the fundamental demand (which most likely comes at least at some degree from D.N.M. will support the price).

[Aby Normal]

Checked on Alphabay to see how Monero is doing there. Its not even begun and there are 75 pages of items from sellers that accept Monero, lots of them are accepting Monero ONLY. No need to brag any more, image is worth a thousand words 

http://imgur.com/a/nkOQr

[shmadz]

Checked on Alphabay to see how Monero is doing there. Its not even begun and there are 75 pages of items from sellers that accept Monero, lots of them are accepting Monero ONLY. No need to brag any more, image is worth a thousand words 

http://imgur.com/a/nkOQr

That's a great sign! With all of the old DNM's being busted by the fed's, this is a good indication that the rest of the markets will follow alphabay.




Also, is there any point in holding bitcoin? Or maybe reducing the core holdings of bitcoin and increasing the monero position.

Although I like Monero, please remember that it has not even a fraction of the proof of work protection and security of bitcoin. I've long considered that there will be one dominant "transparency coin" and one dominant "privacy coin".

I realize that Monero offers the option to be transparent, but I doubt it will ever catch bitcoin in that realm. Also the proof of work security promise of bitcoin will not likely be matched with Monero.

At a glance I would estimate that bitcoin could aspire to the level of the "above ground" market and Monero might aspire to the level of the "underground" market.

[opennux]

Checked on Alphabay to see how Monero is doing there. Its not even begun and there are 75 pages of items from sellers that accept Monero, lots of them are accepting Monero ONLY. No need to brag any more, image is worth a thousand words 

http://imgur.com/a/nkOQr

That's a great sign! With all of the old DNM's being busted by the fed's, this is a good indication that the rest of the markets will follow alphabay.




Also, is there any point in holding bitcoin? Or maybe reducing the core holdings of bitcoin and increasing the monero position.

Although I like Monero, please remember that it has not even a fraction of the proof of work protection and security of bitcoin. I've long considered that there will be one dominant "transparency coin" and one dominant "privacy coin".

I realize that Monero offers the option to be transparent, but I doubt it will ever catch bitcoin in that realm. Also the proof of work security promise of bitcoin will not likely be matched with Monero.

At a glance I would estimate that bitcoin could aspire to the level of the "above ground" market and Monero might aspire to the level of the "underground" market.

While I of course agree that XMR has nowhere near the POW security that Bitcoin has, I disagree with the other things, because the use-case for private transactions are plenty full in business settings. As a business you don't want competitors, customers, suppliers, insurance, NGO's etc. scrutinising your books (hence privacy) - but you would want to give authorities and auditors viewing access, but not spending access (hence view-key).

It also doesn't matter if XMR matches the BTC POW, as long as it is strong enough on its own (and it isn't yet).

[sammy007]

Also the proof of work security promise of bitcoin will not likely be matched with Monero.

I will pray for that. I don't want Monero to be "secured" by mining cartels.

[elrippo]

Well, when people say MOON, Rocket starting, the Darknet buys Monero now and so on, that's all a very optimistic sight of what is actually happening. Like mentioned a few posts earlier to this, insider information, large bags of BTC to play with, manipulating some markets --> plural (did you watch the other noname coins yesterday), is obvious.

Of course i also would like to see XMR beeing the #1 cyrpto in the world used by everybody to do what everybody likes, but that is not the case, yet.
This IS manipulation, maybe the cashout of the bitfinex hack, and that is obvious. If you tell me this is "natural" growth of XMR, i would like to discus your arguments guys

What is "manipulation", really? What is "natural"?

Of course a component of the rally is speculation due to the news on DNMs. I would even bet it is the largest component. These last few days are completely unprecedented in Monero-land; the correlation with the news is extremely strong. Is this speculation "manipulation"? There are of course other components as well. You seem to be assigning a high (nay, overwhelming) % to some other "manipulation" by those with "large bags of BTC to play with".

The XMR market represents the current consensus on the price of XMR. Part of that consensus is "manipulation"; part is "natural"; part might be "other". No market participant is exactly like another. You do not and cannot *know* the intent of the market participants except yourself. You can thus only guess at what you think is going on. When you say in the affirmative "This IS manipulation", you declare that which you do not know.

You request "our" arguments for "natural" growth, but provide none for "manipulation" beyond that it "is obvious".

Like i stated earlier, to see 1000BTC chipping in for buying, some buywalls ranging from 100BTC to 500BTC on polo at 0,008 and then suddenly drop...
Well, in my opinion, that is not natural growth, this smells and tastes like manipulation from a single entity.
If the DNM adopt XMR, which they already do, i suppose there would not be this behaviour in buying XMR.
Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €, the cashout probably will still be in BTC, which does not lift the price of XMR a little bit.

We will see in December which range we are dealing with 

[bitebits]

[...]until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €, the cashout probably will still be in BTC, which does not lift the price of XMR a little bit.
[...]

Can you explain why it makes a difference for the dollar price of a monero, whether it is being 'cashed out' to dollars or bitcoins?

I do not endorse it but there is a clear incentive, especially in the DNM sector, that merchants keep their profits in XMR. That actually does lift the price of a monero.

[nanobrain]

Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €, the cashout probably will still be in BTC, which does not lift the price of XMR a little bit.

The more I study this sentence the less it makes sense.
Perhaps by "no" do you mean "a" - in which case, you do realise that Polo already has a XMR/USD market. 

[DaveyJones]

Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €, the cashout probably will still be in BTC, which does not lift the price of XMR a little bit.

The more I study this sentence the less it makes sense.
Perhaps by "no" do you mean "a" - in which case, you do realise that Polo already has a XMR/USD market. 

To be fair it is XMR/TUSD

[iCEBREAKER]

Checked on Alphabay to see how Monero is doing there. Its not even begun and there are 75 pages of items from sellers that accept Monero, lots of them are accepting Monero ONLY. No need to brag any more, image is worth a thousand words 

http://imgur.com/a/nkOQr

"ONLY ACCEPTING XMR AT THE MOMENT"

 

*economic singularity intensifies*

[bbc.reporter]

Checked on Alphabay to see how Monero is doing there. Its not even begun and there are 75 pages of items from sellers that accept Monero, lots of them are accepting Monero ONLY. No need to brag any more, image is worth a thousand words 

http://imgur.com/a/nkOQr

"ONLY ACCEPTING XMR AT THE MOMENT"

 

*economic singularity intensifies*

This is quite a development among sellers. I would have thought that they would switch slowly to XMR instead of doing it right away.

I have a question. Let us say I am a seller in the darknet. I now hold XMR in my wallet and would like to cash out some into BTC. So I transfer some to Shapeshift. Will my transactions be traced by snoopers online?

What would be a secure, anonymous way to trade XMR to BTC online?

[smooth]

Besides, until we have no market for turning XMR in $ or €

Won't be long. The countdown has started. (No inside info here, just stating the obvious.)

While I of course agree that XMR has nowhere near the POW security that Bitcoin has

I don't agree (largely echoing sammy007's comment). The more centralized the mining with the more barriers to entry, the less efficient a mining network is in converting raw hash rate into real security. Raw energy burn is only a small part of the equation. It is more accurate to say that it is difficult to compare the security of the two because they are quite dissimilar in nature.

Monero's security in practice is quite significant. Someone on reddit asked about building a 500kh/sec mine. That would require about 500 or more devices (higher-end GPUs or CPUs) and still only be about 2% of the network hash rate (which will likely rise significantly if this repricing is sustained). Already and for some time Monero's network has ranked among the largest supercomputers and with the repricing may soon surpass all supercomputers. There is no "easy" attack on Monero's hash rate possible or likely.

[iCEBREAKER]

Checked on Alphabay to see how Monero is doing there. Its not even begun and there are 75 pages of items from sellers that accept Monero, lots of them are accepting Monero ONLY. No need to brag any more, image is worth a thousand words 

http://imgur.com/a/nkOQr

"ONLY ACCEPTING XMR AT THE MOMENT"

 

*economic singularity intensifies*

This is quite a development among sellers. I would have thought that they would switch slowly to XMR instead of doing it right away.

I have a question. Let us say I am a seller in the darknet. I now hold XMR in my wallet and would like to cash out some into BTC. So I transfer some to Shapeshift. Will my transactions be traced by snoopers online?

What would be a secure, anonymous way to trade XMR to BTC online?

http://BitSquare.io

decentralized xmr <-> btc

[bbc.reporter]

The people of Monero should provide the volume in Bitsquare. The last time I have seen it there was nothing happening in the exchange. Hiring market makers to accommodate people from the darkmarket selling and buying XMR might be a good idea. It will also help start the market activity in Bitsquare with XMR as the "star" currency making it become in the center of attraction again. I hope the Monero whales will have a long term game plan like that.

[explorer]

The people of Monero should provide the volume in Bitsquare. The last time I have seen it there was nothing happening in the exchange. Hiring market makers to accommodate people from the darkmarket selling and buying XMR might be a good idea. It will also help start the market activity in Bitsquare with XMR as the "star" currency making it become in the center of attraction again. I hope the Monero whales will have a long term game plan like that.

Market making is riskier than usual at the moment. tough to do profitably when the price tends to leave ranges behind at the drop of a hat