[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.

Monero since the beginning has had a relatively large trade volume which doesn't seem to indicate that most monerojs are in the hands of a few.

Wait, lets look at the "rich list"

http://moneroblocks.info/richlist

[Mast0rmind]

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.

Monero since the beginning has had a relatively large trade volume which doesn't seem to indicate that most monerojs are in the hands of a few.

Well again, most early adopters have a huge stach of XMR theres no question about that in my opinion due to low price (before the rise) and a high emission curve.

Furthermore I dont suspect that the userbase of XMR is that large at this point in time. Maybe just 0,0001 % of the total userbase of Bitcoin.

[N-rG]

puh about the customer base i'm not so sure. When i check the datas with the API there are a lot different buy and sell orders. When these are not all bots from the same person, i would say there are a lot of people in it. But i cannot compare with BTC.

When fluffy says he has about 12k~ coins -and i believe him- than i dont think that there is someone outside who has about 20% or so...and if so: yai buddy!

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

You only want him to baghold that your losses are not getting higher. Fibonacci indicates it goes down to 085 check at bitcoinwisdom.

You can't apply Fibonacci on XMR markets. It isn't close to being a mature enough market. It's barely even practical on BTC/USD let alone XMR/BTC.

Besides, if you think it's going to 085 then why are you telling the noob to buy at 075.

You're clearly looking to accumulate, but had you been paying attention you would have realised that we're already currently in the accumulation zone.

Anything below 0.012 is the pickup point, and while newcomers should always trade cautiously, it would be fucking insanity to sell now....given that pretty much everyone else in this thread is obviously picking up.

So please, less of the evangelical deception.

Of course you can apply Fibonacci levels to XMR. Consider the latest surge in price to have begun on Aug 2 price has retreated almost exactly 61.8%. Traders are fiercely supporting the 0.0120 level dips below have been brief. I also agree that any price below .012 is worth bidding.

[Hueristic]

Beware the Bull trap right now.

[nioc]

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.

Monero since the beginning has had a relatively large trade volume which doesn't seem to indicate that most monerojs are in the hands of a few.

Well again, most early adopters have a huge stach of XMR theres no question about that in my opinion due to low price (before the rise) and a high emission curve.

Furthermore I dont suspect that the userbase of XMR is that large at this point in time. Maybe just 0,0001 % of the total userbase of Bitcoin.

Ofc the userbase is not that large compared to btc, nobody ever claimed it to be but at least you could make a realistic wild guess.
Maybe 0.0001%?  Then according to this, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1628738.0;viewResults
there are less than 2 million btc users.  Multiply that by 0.0001% = <20 Monero users. 


Next assertion; Most early adopters have a huge stash. 
What is a huge stash?  Maybe 100k or more?  If there are 100 early adopters then that accounts all the coins.  Now you say that because of the low price the early adopters could buy cheap.  But the coins were cheap for 2 years.  When I started buying over 2 years ago the price was stable at around 0.004 and 1 1/2 years later it was 0.001
So for 2 years people could become early adopters due to the fact of the emissions schedule.  Much different than you stating the emissions curve only allowed a few to get huge amounts.

I have more coins than ever and nowhere near a huge amount.  Some of us are poor. 

[Mast0rmind]

I'm also a bit conserned about the emission curve of monero, which seems a bit intense to me. I mean most monerojs are in the hands of a few, and they themself can manipulate the market as they please.

Monero since the beginning has had a relatively large trade volume which doesn't seem to indicate that most monerojs are in the hands of a few.

Well again, most early adopters have a huge stach of XMR theres no question about that in my opinion due to low price (before the rise) and a high emission curve.

Furthermore I dont suspect that the userbase of XMR is that large at this point in time. Maybe just 0,0001 % of the total userbase of Bitcoin.

Ofc the userbase is not that large compared to btc, nobody ever claimed it to be but at least you could make a realistic wild guess.
Maybe 0.0001%?  Then according to this, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1628738.0;viewResults
there are less than 2 million btc users.  Multiply that by 0.0001% = <20 Monero users. 


Next assertion; Most early adopters have a huge stash. 
What is a huge stash?  Maybe 100k or more?  If there are 100 early adopters then that accounts all the coins.  Now you say that because of the low price the early adopters could buy cheap.  But the coins were cheap for 2 years.  When I started buying over 2 years ago the price was stable at around 0.004 and 1 1/2 years later it was 0.001
So for 2 years people could become early adopters due to the fact of the emissions schedule.  Much different than you stating the emissions curve only allowed a few to get huge amounts.

I have more coins than ever and nowhere near a huge amount.  Some of us are poor. 

Well maybe you are right.

[nioc]

Well maybe you are right.

I understand that when looking at the large amounts being thrown around on Polo that somebody has large stashes.  Your specifics just made no sense to me.  It is a relatively small market and people with money can do things that I can't fathom being a poor boy and others have much better insight into how markets work than I do. Even btc is not that big a market for some people.   

[DaveyJones]

Well maybe you are right.

I understand that when looking at the large amounts being thrown around on Polo that somebody has large stashes.  Your specifics just made no sense to me.  It is a relatively small market and people with money can do things that I can't fathom being a poor boy and others have much better insight into how markets work than I do. Even btc is not that big a market for some people.   

Also dont forgot one of those bigger holders only needs to have a bigger % of the possible coins on the exchange not all coins ever mined... the "cold coins" are not that big of a part in the equotation on exchanges.

[smooth]

Furthermore I dont suspect that the userbase of XMR is that large at this point in time. Maybe just 0,0001 % of the total userbase of Bitcoin.

That would be something in the neighborhood of one person. I'm pretty sure it is larger than that.

Next assertion; Most early adopters have a huge stash. 
What is a huge stash?  Maybe 100k or more?  If there are 100 early adopters then that accounts all the coins.

Go easy on our friend Mast0rmind. Not everyone in cryptocurrency approaches it from a perspective of math or cryptography.

[el testosteron]

Still holding

[cryptonic21]

if only monero will follow similar patterns as bitcoin... all of us who is trying to get every single cheap coin will be ok. Yes, at this moment i feel pain, and a lot of my friends as well. But when it will get to the desired point haha ...we will see... permabul here.

[owlcatz]

if only monero will follow similar patterns as bitcoin... all of us who is trying to get every single cheap coin will be ok. Yes, at this momen i feel pain, and a lot of my friends as well. But when it will get to the desired point haha ...we will see... permabul here.

+100 cryptonic, same here! Hodl is the best bet. stop checkng price. Once gui and ringct arrives, all will be good again. Us early adopters can withstand this dump! 

[ozkraut]

if only monero will follow similar patterns as bitcoin... all of us who is trying to get every single cheap coin will be ok. Yes, at this momen i feel pain, and a lot of my friends as well. But when it will get to the desired point haha ...we will see... permabul here.

 yeah thats where I am at. Ultimately it is playing out exactly as I expected if it is indeed the real thing. Violent jolts in all sorts of directions as the beast comes to life. To quote FranknFurter: Come up to the lab and see whats on the slab.....

soon the first chain analysis results will cause mayhem in bitcoin's murky end of the pool. Tumblers? You really want to tumble your weed money with someone tumbling btc sourced from hideous shit? I mean the pool of tumble btc available is likely to be from rather murky sources in many cases so that makes the whole mixer thing a bit illogical to me. So XMR for the win methinks. With the expected growing pain and grazed knee.....

[Shiroslullaby]

Either you guys are fucking psychic, lucksacks, or the graphs were right,
because it seems like we've hit the bottom at 0.012.
If I had a million dollars I would probably spend half of it on Monero right now and laugh all the way to the bank as the price climbed back up over the next couple months.

[Anon136]

Either you guys are fucking psychic, lucksacks, or the graphs were right,
because it seems like we've hit the bottom at 0.012.
If I had a million dollars I would probably spend half of it on Monero right now and laugh all the way to the bank as the price climbed back up over the next couple months.

Yea me too. If I had a million dollars I would dump half in monero. And then I would lose it all. But I would do it none the less.

[NewLiberty]

The down side to the higher price is that it is more expensive to acquire.

The upside is that higher price opens up new use cases.
The price is probably not even high enough yet to support serious DNM uses so if that happens there will be upward pressures.

Bitcoin and its transparency are more suited to government, charity, and community use cases, Monero more to banking and private enterprises.  There is a very long way to go for both of these.  In development, in valuation, and in adoption.

This is just the very early beginning.

[smoothie]

@smoothie
Low volume in selling? What is low volume for you please?

ps. why everyone starts to fight about changing oppionions. In this market its totally common that things are changing and so the POV.

If Amazon tomorrow announces to implement XMR i change again to buy btw.

But still i wonder what happens if the last support above 100 breaks

pps. i still claim that XMR has a good future due to ransomware demands. But as i said this effect takes more than 6 month.

@starmman

Im curious if the BTC run is related to the US election or to the news about deutsche bank and some concerns about a new FC..you know more?

                                      High volume ^                                                               Low volume ^


I think it's pretty self-explanatory, very clear....

Concerning your flip flopping on your perspective, it is very short term from what I gather if you are bullish one hour then 6 hours later you are bearish.

Bigger picture....

[starmman]

@starmman

Im curious if the BTC run is related to the US election or to the news about deutsche bank and some concerns about a new FC..you know more?

It's quite common that large news items have a impact on trading volumes/levels. When one market or system is under-threat people gravitate to safe havens, traditionally save havens have been gold and the Yen. BTC is starting to have positive price trends during periods of financial uncertainty - the last peak was around the time of the brexit for example. That said, this is a speculation thread - so make up your own conclusions =)

When determining position on a trade for bitcoin, I personally value current affairs as much as the price indicators.

A lot of the Deutsche Bank fears are reducing now - so the impact to the BTC price may be less.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Deutsche Bank issue is "easily" solved. There are at least two possibilities in my opinion.
First being let the government take it over, stabilize it and then sell it back to the markets at top dollar.
Second way is simply issue new shares to boost the equity.