[XMR] Monero Speculation

[obit33]

Damn. That's quite the resume. Predictions moving forward? Are we building a floor here around 0.01?

I think we're going to see a spike up soon with the release of the GUI. I bought a few in anticipation of that. But once the initial excitement wears off I think we'll continue to slide down and below 0.01 again. This still looks like a bear market to me, and if bitcoin continues to rally this will result in selling pressure on altcoins at least for the short term, if past behavior is any indication.

mweh, you're possibly right, though I think if more stories like this one surface: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/56c16n/fbi_uses_blockchain_analysis_to_deanonymize/
it could give monero the extra boost needed for another bull-run... but I'm just a small fish in comparison to you, thanks for all you're doing for the community btw!

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[adolf512]

nice with profits, i like that get ready for another bull-run bitches! this rise in price was bloody obvious but i guess most altcoin investors are idiots(otherwise the price would be a lot higher now). Now a lot of idiots will think think the raise is temporary and sell, they will regret it.

I know i earlier predicted stability between 0.013 and 0.014, we will now see if this is the case, the price initially drops below the stability level during the despair phase(idiots panic selling) and now we are seeing a correction up. We might see a much bigger bouble this time or we might see the price getting stable between 0.012 and 0.015 (my prediction).

It will soon be a lot harder to predict the xmr price, but i like challenges.  

update: the interest on longes are increasing, i guess a lot of shorting is going on, the shorters will get rekt

[N-rG]

Well my short on ETH runs excellent. I hope the 1 Billion Dollar bubble is currently bursting. But who knows if it will still find people who run into the coin trading trap of ETH. But anyway, it gives me every day a lot of BTC's which I will re-invest as soon as i realise the profit. Moreover I see also DASH under pressure. Otherwise the followers of this currency wouldnt start a FUD campaign. So every loss of cashpower in these coins will strengthen BTC/XMR. Highly speculative: Imagine 30% of the cashflow running into XMR. + regular interest + DNM, resulting in even more attention and hopefully acceptance.

Spoiler: (No complain against the Team!)

The GUI is very important.

@Adolf

Glad to hear business runs for you 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Monero deserves 1 bn marketcap and Etherium 100 million market cap. Indeed there is a trading opportunity to short Etherium and long Monero.
When it comes to Darkcoin, it is recommended to be more cautious because they have strong marketing which probably helps it to maintain the price.. However, if someone has a lot of ammo he or she can destroy Darkcoin but as I said, it requires tons of money to do it by shorting.


I consider it pretty bullish factor that there are a lot of early adopters who do not have that many Moneros anymore (Warz has been sold tons and not bought them back), also some others are having less coins than they used to have when the price was between 0.001-0.004 range.
Dark markets indeed gives organic demand for Moneros and I think this will replace a lot of speculative demand for coins. If 1-2 darkmarkets quit accepting Moneros by exiting completely, then there will be 4-5 new markets popping up.
It is possible to see the leap to 1 billion market cap soon - and if this happens, a lot of early adopters will sell coins on the way up so much that they can maintain their lifestyle for the rest of their lives and do not need to sell even 1 XMR. That creates a positive loop which will boost the price even more so that people buying now before the next leg and holding it, will be able to redistribute their coins on the way to 10 billion market cap. 

[TrueCryptonaire]

Adolf and NRG are probably the same person (ie Adolf is the alter ego of NRG).  

[N-rG]

http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/15/technology/ransomware-cyber-security/

At that rate, ransomware is on pace to be a $1 billion a year crime this year. The FBI told CNN that the number "is quite high" because a few people "reported large losses."

I guess 1 billion is US only.

[MoneroMooo]

And now see this:

And presumably you had posted it just beforehand, right ?

[nioc]

OK guys I am back from a 3 day trip to my mountain house during which time I was mostly disconnected from the world.  Did not listen to news etc and it seems the world is still here.

There are so many new pages here during that time so I am requesting cliff
                                                                                                             !
                                                                                                              !
                                                                                                               !
                                                                                                                !
                                                                                                                 notes if some one would be so kind.

Your calm presence has been missed.

In short, a whole lot of FUD.

Thanks guys

FUD is water and I'm a duck but reading it would be a waste of time so no need.

Well I'm even calmer now after the too short of time away in relative silence and solitude.  There are a couple of female deer that frequent my property and I watched while sitting on the couch as they walked past my floor to ceiling windows

I bought some btc and as usual I was going to spend twice that amount on Monero.  As I do not keep money on exchanges I tried ShapeShift and once again the transaction did not go through.  Their customer service is good but there is none on the weekends so      

I really need to start using BitSquare.  It is the best implementation of a decentralized and anonymous exchange.  Some are only here for the money while others appreciate the important things going on here.  Although they are not mutually exclusive but rather intimately connected.

[N-rG]

Some are only here for the money while others appreciate the important things going on here

You think there is something wrong with being rich or want to be? If so: I dont think someone can say so in general. It always depends what you do with the money. With a lot of my money I maintain animal shelters in east/south europe. I think the waste of money is something one can name and shame. I have "friends" who have 7 luxury cars for example. What makes me a bit sad is that they could have bought only one and instead having the other six they could buy lets say 40 cheap cars for poor families or so. I grant nearly everyone to get rich but this really not include for example these people on youtube who show everyone their wealth but do a shit for the society. So is it better when someone appreciate the features of monero and become rich beside as a nice have cause he invested as a early adopter (like we) but will never do something important to the society? Its always easy to judge people but less easy to see a big picture about who they actually are and what their intention is.

[Shiroslullaby]

99% of the people here are trying to make a profit.
Obviously there are some important ideas being discussed on these message boards.
De-centralization of money, freeing ourselves from fiat systems imposed on us by the government, the future of the internet and crypto systems are deep subjects.
These are important things to think about and discuss.
But you have to realize that this is a small percentage of any population. Most people are happy as long as their bills are paid and they have a job to go to.
Your average reader is just trying to pick up some quick tips on which coin to invest in so they can make a few dollars.

[Hueristic]

Shit, dropped $1500 on the tables last night. Should have bought and stayed home!

I just hate having to use BTC, I still think it's way over valued. But that is just because I know that we have this option which trumps it.

[N-rG]

interesting what she said about the digital development...

https://youtu.be/LrBcbk4UF5o?t=1m1s

[smoothie]

Monero community should be proud, we have our own version of proudhon on this thread.

[Shiroslullaby]

Shit, dropped $1500 on the tables last night. Should have bought and stayed home!

One time on my birthday I lost like $500 playing Blackjack,
drove home drunk as fuck to get more money,
went back to the casino and lost another $500.
Not my best birthday lol.
I guess Im just lucky I didnt get caught driving drunk. Really stupid move on my part. 

[adolf512]

One time on my birthday I lost like $500 playing Blackjack,
drove home drunk as fuck to get more money,
went back to the casino and lost another $500.

Man that sucks, i hate myself when i lose 20$ due to trading mistakes even if i make the money back later i continue to be mad over the loss, i guess it will take a while to get used to it.

[kurious]

One time on my birthday I lost like $500 playing Blackjack,
drove home drunk as fuck to get more money,
went back to the casino and lost another $500.

Man that sucks, i hate myself when i lose 20$ due to trading mistakes even if i make the money back later i continue to be mad over the loss, i guess it will take a while to get used to it.

Dude - if anyone here was perfect, they wouldn't be here

You have to take risks and sometimes they don't pay off and you learn from it.

All you can do is try to develop an edge and win more than you lose.  It's a long game.

[kurious]

Jeez - if someone wants to smash us down....  Hmm...

Buys waiting!

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

One time on my birthday I lost like $500 playing Blackjack,
drove home drunk as fuck to get more money,
went back to the casino and lost another $500.

Man that sucks, i hate myself when i lose 20$ due to trading mistakes even if i make the money back later i continue to be mad over the loss, i guess it will take a while to get used to it.

Dude - if anyone here was perfect, they wouldn't be here

You have to take risks and sometimes they don't pay off and you learn from it.

All you can do is try to develop an edge and win more than you lose.  It's a long game.

Every trader has losses you just need to learn from your losses to improve your entries and exits. Trading is an art and not everyone can be a success at it just like few can paint well enough to make a living off it.

The best strategy for someone new to trading is to go long on an established strong trend up. Don't try to catch a falling knife or short. Always use a stop loss and let your winners run. When there is a strong trend in progress you just want to take a piece of the pie and get out before the trend reverses.

Right now Monero is definitely not in a strong trend up, just take a look at the daily chart. Use a 200 MA to judge whether an asset is in a bull or bear market long term. Check different time frames also.

Before you take a position you should have a clear reason to go long, know how you will choose your entry and when you will exit: how much profit do you look for and how much will you risk. Right now long term trend for XMR is still bullish but medium term is down and short time frame is uncertain. Experienced traders who like to counter trend trade already bought at .01, are now in profit and raised their stop loss to break even.

There are some good technical reasons .01 might be the bottom but it has not really been tested yet, and if bitcoin takes off Monero will go down in price as traders move capital from Monero to bitcoin. That could provide a good buying opportunity for someone looking to hold Monero long term.

[TrueCryptonaire]

My bids are also welcoming warmly all the dumps.  

[adolf512]

Every trader has losses you just need to learn from your losses to improve your entries and exits. Trading is an art and not everyone can be a success at it just like few can paint well enough to make a living off it.

The best strategy for someone new to trading is to go long on an established strong trend up. Don't try to catch a falling knife or short. Always use a stop loss and let your winners run. When there is a strong trend in progress you just want to take a piece of the pie and get out before the trend reverses.

It is much more difficult than that, i bought at 0.0114 thinking it was on the way up(broke my rule of not buying above 0.011) and not much later the price fell below my buy-limit which felt horribly, every-time i don't stick to my rules i end up losing money. I would say trading is very much about discipline and impulse control which i still lack(still i am doing ok).

Right now Monero is definitely not in a strong trend up, just take a look at the daily chart. Use a 200 MA to judge whether an asset is in a bull or bear market long term. Check different time frames also.

If you look at the trend you notice that each new peak is less deep, you just have to have patience and not do stupid mistakes(luckily i only had 0.48 BTC left to spend).

Now the bottom has moved up to 0.011, i did go long with my XMR for a small interest,i still think the medium term is up.