[XMR] Monero Speculation

[KeyJockey]

I've mentioned elsewhere that I'm a pretty hardcore monero maximalist...

Ha... well, yeah... thing is that I too seem to be 'evolving' into a Monero Maximalist as well BUT I'm tryin' to be "reasonable" here and consider how that might still be "wrong"... just to be conservative LOL

This-here thread on XMR Speculation is a great, epic thread but all the same it seems to me to sometimes be a little too much fanboys preaching to the choir too.  

I want to keep my overall crypto-portfolio balanced properly between BTC, XMR and "others" but lately it's felt to me like "all in on XMR alone" might be the way to go.

But that's crazy talk.  Isn't it?  AAAAAAAAA what to do?  What to do?  LOL  

[bitebits]

Can I move coins from a paperwallet without having to download the whole blockchain?

Code:

monero-wallet-cli.exe --daemon-host node.moneroworld.com

For privacy reasons it is however advised to run your own node.

[kurious]

Nice price action...  Any news I am missing?

[Dotto]

I was coming here for the same, Kurious. It seems it´s just whales copulating

[kurious]

Loving the ping pong - enough volatility to hit a few of my sells and then drop a little so I can buy 'em back and accumulate MOAR!

XMR looking chipper though, Dotto - I trust you're well, Sir?

[kurious]

16000 XMR wall at 0.010745....

So was this all whale play?

EDIT: hadn't refreshed, Dotto - you beat me to it.  Large whale fun indeed.  Fun to see walls that big though...

[kurious]

Just got bought in one bite....

Unless whale bought his own wall? 

[bitebits]

Just got bought in one bite....

Unless whale bought his own wall? 

Maybe to increase volume, something I am currently not impressed by.

The XBT and XMR market are both rather calm at the moment. Usually this is followed by sudden heavy volatility. Fun times ahead!

[CTTE]

I've mentioned elsewhere that I'm a pretty hardcore monero maximalist...

Ha... well, yeah... thing is that I too seem to be 'evolving' into a Monero Maximalist as well BUT I'm tryin' to be "reasonable" here and consider how that might still be "wrong"... just to be conservative LOL

This-here thread on XMR Speculation is a great, epic thread but all the same it seems to me to sometimes be a little too much fanboys preaching to the choir too.  

I want to keep my overall crypto-portfolio balanced properly between BTC, XMR and "others" but lately it's felt to me like "all in on XMR alone" might be the way to go.

But that's crazy talk.  Isn't it?  AAAAAAAAA what to do?  What to do?  LOL  

I got that same notion about being "reasonable and conservative" a while back when the price was really low and we didn't have a lot of releases coming out I was afraid it would never moon and I'd be up the creek, so to speak. I thought I should diversify and at that point was hodling about 15k Monero and over the next couple months I would sell a few on the peaks until I was down to about 5k. THE WORST MISTAKE OF MY LIFE!!!!! Well, one of them at least... I was out of cash at the time and couldn't just keep buying without any solid proof the price would take off. I've managed to buy back some of what I had sold but at drastically higher prices but I'm still not where I was...

So, no matter what you should buy on the lows and HODL!

[TrueCryptonaire]

Personally I am glad to see this chart of slow climbing upwards. The longer it can stay this slow the higher it can climb. When the growth rate starts to accelerate significiantly the risk of correction is more imminent. That being said, last rally taught the lesson of the legs. Those who sold during the first leg from 0.004 -> 0.008 lost the gains of the next two legs.

[bbc.reporter]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

[bitjedi]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

He's referring to technical trading.  These coins always pump and dump.  pop and drop.  You need to create a bubble price if you are going to burst it.  And yes, there will be a continual cycle of price acceleration creating bubbles and then a correction when dumping.  This typically happens when shorts are forced to buy back at market prices or when big news hits and organic buys eat the sell book.  Then profit taking comes into play and market dynamics kick in to get back to a more normal equilibrium, not one just predicated on some short term technical event.

[rpietila]

I think the situation is good.

Thank you everyone for the lively conversation that followed!

My price predictions do not equal trading advice. I do not even trade. I know some things however. I am still on the opinion that Monero is very, very important, and taking a position is a good idea for everyone. At present, XMR should be much overweighted compared to BTC. Instead of the "traditional" crypto-portfolio weighting of 75% or more of BTC and the rest interesting alts, including XMR, I am now proposing:

25-50% U.S. banknotes
25-50% XMR
rest BTC.

We are headed to rough times and the transactability of BTC is compromised.

ADD: As for my person, Among the other fateful days of my life, a new one has been added:

2008-9-19 Confiscation of all my assets at gunpoint
2011-4-12 Libelous documentary aired to half a million people to finish off my career etc
2013-5-14 Admission to involuntary care including forced medication
2016-11-5 Fled my country, family, etc with only a laptop bag full of cash.

I am doing fine thank you. There is a revolution being planned in Finland (google Icelandic revolution 2009), will probably participate. At least you know who killed me

[TrueCryptonaire]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

I refered to the speculative bubbles which often pop. That being said, the bubbles pop at higher level than started initially.
In case of organic growth it is exponential indeed (if there are 2 people using it and each convince 1 people, the userbase is 4. But if 4 uses and convinces 1 user each, the growth is twice as high as it was 2 preachers preaching the good news).
Monero is far far from being a mature project in order to dumps being eaten by the markets. Bitcoin has reached closer to that point but even it is still too small for being stable. However, chances are good Monero will develope at faster rate than btc thanks to the second mover advantage.

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

[obit33]

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

What is considered 'criminal behaviour' is very very relative in time and space, depends on who's in charge, societal climate etc etc... And yes, these people, whose behaviour has been outlawed will seek the best way to hide said behaviour... This is not something which anyone should seek to prevent, at least not by diminishing anonimity/privacy and thus fungibility in a currency

[TrueCryptonaire]

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

What is considered 'criminal behaviour' is very very relative in time and space, depends on who's in charge, societal climate etc etc... And yes, these people, whose behaviour has been outlawed will seek the best way to hide said behaviour... This is not something which anyone should seek to prevent, at least not by diminishing anonimity/privacy and thus fungibility in a currency

Criminal = outlawed.
If you live in Somalia which has no law and order there is obviously many things possible but if we look at the majority of countries, most of them has outlawed drugs and certain type of pornography for instance.
The criminal activity has partially ruined the reputation of bitcoin (many still think it is a currency of criminals) so it may not be good for the reputation in the beginning. Therefore, being accepted by the D.N.M. is kinda double edged sword: on the one hand it is nice that XMR has some real use case, on the other hand, it might create reputation to the XMR of being the currency of the bad guys.

[Hueristic]

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

What is considered 'criminal behaviour' is very very relative in time and space, depends on who's in charge, societal climate etc etc... And yes, these people, whose behaviour has been outlawed will seek the best way to hide said behaviour... This is not something which anyone should seek to prevent, at least not by diminishing anonimity/privacy and thus fungibility in a currency

Criminal = outlawed.
If you live in Somalia which has no law and order there is obviously many things possible but if we look at the majority of countries, most of them has outlawed drugs and certain type of pornography for instance.
The criminal activity has partially ruined the reputation of bitcoin (many still think it is a currency of criminals) so it may not be good for the reputation in the beginning. Therefore, being accepted by the D.N.M. is kinda double edged sword: on the one hand it is nice that XMR has some real use case, on the other hand, it might create reputation to the XMR of being the currency of the bad guys.

This is the largest criminal asset of all time.



It has such a bad reputation no-one will accept it, right?

Well to be fair maybe gold is larger but the point still stands.

[luigi1111]

@dEBRUYNE & @MoneroMooo

Cool... thanks for those.  Totally don't grok what any of that info's about, LOL but cool to play with anyway

So, just as a test using the info on the slip of paper that Smoothie included with the coin, here's what I got:

Smoothie had the example "Base64" text to print in the circle on paper, to cut out and insert under the hologram sticker, like this...

iOLI
b6/Kukeg
h23tC8Prlo
9OC0GF8mgn
djeI9ike
dji=

...which I had to use a jeweler's loupe to actually READ, LOL... my eye's gettin' old, man... heh

Anyway, that's...

iOLIb6/Kukegh23tC8Prlo9OC0GF8mgndjeI9ikedji=

...which I then used http://kjur.github.io/jsjws/tool_b64udec.html online to convert to...

88e2c86fafcaba47a0876ded0bc3eb968f4e0b4185f26827763788f6291e7638

...which then using luigi1111's tool, above, yielded valid Monero Address...

49cfLx1LyTK6JgUYtqSZszckGP3S8nVYLAwU4dZJUc5ZRajBUT7tGfB41cBHMxJEwfcjFmLegFypy6Z U6wDNsJcDHNwJnh2

...and SEED WORDS...

sipped bugs needed biscuit feline neither dads sulking saga anchor safety geyser patio hounded peaches juvenile moisture radar oncoming agnostic yawning teeming budget gone radar

...which worked fine on MyMonero but (of course) didn't show any balance currently or transaction history.

So... bottom line?  Smoothie, if you're reading this and you remember what address that example text on your little instruction sheet came from, maybe confirm that it's all correct and I successfully reverted back here, from the shorter simple Base64 all the way to seed words?

Pretty cool, if so.  Good system

Just wanna practice this a couple more times before actually putting any XMR onto the coin, permanently.  

Just 'cuz after all, y'know, 5 XMR going to this little fun "throwaway" coin just to play with today, may be worth equivalent of $5,000,000 purchasing power for my future grandchildren some day, LOL

P.S. {Edit} Hmm... maybe spoke too soon?  Slight quirk apparently, I didn't look closely enough before, but just now I noticed that using those seed words to log in to MyMonero shows *different* address, in fact:

Account Address (Public)
49cfLx1LyTK6JgUYtqSZszckGP3S8nVYLAwU4dZJUc5ZRZ3acjTyx3rFjnZjptwjPDWEnMuQa2wW852 NUKSeQMWMRNMDHoy

View Key (Private)
528821c52c901556be9ac964a58c80c8196efa2c0f2acfaac6f28c4b19c41b0b

Spend Key (Private)
c166e75860a1833f1db1860470d54e588f4e0b4185f26827763788f6291e7608

IS this still "the same" however, so if XMR was sent to this it would still work...?  Or...?  Hmm...

This "seed" is not reduced. That is why MyMonero shows a different address.

You can see the difference by looking at https://xmr.llcoins.net/addresstests.html -- put the 64 hex chars in box 2. then click the button "Gen 3. and 4." Note the spendkey is not the same. To make MyMonero show the same address, just copy the new spendkey back to box 2, then press "Gen 1."

[KeyJockey]

This "seed" is not reduced. That is why MyMonero shows a different address.

You can see the difference by looking at https://xmr.llcoins.net/addresstests.html -- put the 64 hex chars in box 2. then click the button "Gen 3. and 4." Note the spendkey is not the same. To make MyMonero show the same address, just copy the new spendkey back to box 2, then press "Gen 1."

Thanks for reply Luigi... very cool.  And thanks again for everything you do for XMR and all of us.

So, here's a copy-paste of what I wrote on the Reddit post about this recently too, just for future reference & posterity etc...

=====

OK just to make a summary here on the reddit thread for other people too, here's one way I've been playing around with this myself (have not yet actually put my coin together either, just getting familiar with all the process still...)

Using the cool tool from Luigi1111, https://xmr.llcoins.net/addresstests.html

Generate a new Monero address... hit all the "gen" buttons there to fill in all fields.

Use the site offline for security if at all possible!

Copy the hexadecimal seed there from Box 2 Either on Unix commandline (as per MoneroMooo info) or on a site like here, http://tomeko.net/online_tools/hex_to_base64.php?lang=en

Paste and convert hex seed text to Base64

This is what you PRINT and cut out on paper to embed into the coin under hologram

Test converting this Base64 text string BACK to hexadecimal on a site like here, http://kjur.github.io/jsjws/tool_b64udec.html

Test taking that hex seed back to Luigi's site and re-regenerate all the correct Monero address and seed words etc... to be sure your distilled-down simple short Base64 string that will be secure inside the coin IS able to be used to bring you back to your XMR access.

IF/WHEN everything seems okay, generate the info, embed into coin, send XMR to that address and be sure to DELETE EVERYTHING so that the ONLY record of that XMR is secure saved embedded into the coin.

Here's a quick example of doing all this start to finish... note I'm not gonna put any XMR on this address obviously so anyone thinking to try and use this to steal my funds, nope. Ha ha.


Mnemonic Seed Words:
turnip dwarf beware rafts shelter honked utility pact nuisance iceberg vitals match examine motherly oxygen muppet inwardly utmost cogs uptight twofold union flying furnished motherly

Monero Address:
43BZy5FRqYXMy4GaSd5HCEFS1jRQEx2v2PYb3MnA2sn9ABYYjx8wiYdZaThAZJWUVq2kWus4meTJoBh 1Bd7gxA2JLMM5JdT

Hexadecimal Seed:
921a3fe16d0d639eac835ff4251760942ebc6b168565c87fcbf66bf908e80004

Base64 Reduction To:
kho/4W0NY56sg1/0JRdglC68axaFZch/y/Zr+QjoAAQ=


Good Luck!!
 

[bbc.reporter]

@TrueCryptonaire. How can you say that if growth starts to accelerate, the risk of a correction will be imminent? That is counterintuitive. Should it not be the opposite? If the growth is growing, the risk of a correction will become smaller and smaller.

I also want to ask how is the growth of Monero use in the darknet market place? Are more vendors using it?

I refered to the speculative bubbles which often pop. That being said, the bubbles pop at higher level than started initially.
In case of organic growth it is exponential indeed (if there are 2 people using it and each convince 1 people, the userbase is 4. But if 4 uses and convinces 1 user each, the growth is twice as high as it was 2 preachers preaching the good news).
Monero is far far from being a mature project in order to dumps being eaten by the markets. Bitcoin has reached closer to that point but even it is still too small for being stable. However, chances are good Monero will develope at faster rate than btc thanks to the second mover advantage.

I have no idea how much vendors use XMR but unfortunately we cannot prevent the junkies and criminals using the best alt.

Ok I get it now. Thanks for clarifying. That is natural in any market and we have to try our best to be in right side of it. In the topic of junkies and criminals using Monero, is it not exactly that where its real, organic value comes from? We have to accept that the perfect use case for anonymous cryptocoins is exactly for the darknet.