[XMR] Monero Speculation

[iCEBREAKER]

Damn.  I didn't factor all those boating accidents.

There was actually only one accident. We all decided to have a Monero meet-up on a small fishing boat in treacherous waters. Many fortunes were lost that day.

To think it all started with a three hour tour!
Sung to the tune of the Gilligan's Island theme song:

The weather started getting rough,
But the tiny ship was tossed.
If not for the courage of the fearless crew
Monero would be lost.
Monero would be lost.

In retrospect, it was a terrible idea for us to arrange our paper wallets for a group photo on the sailboat's deck. 

The look on everyone's faces when that totally unexpected gust of wind blew the wallets overboard is something that will haunt me to my grave. 

Also regret printing the wallets on quickly dissolving rice paper. 

[infofront]

At least Ginger and Mary Anne were there.

[iCEBREAKER]

I propose a tontine for holders of over 100k, who are willing to dox themselves.

For retirement, I'd like to put a few thousand in a structured product that pays out in fiat a fixed weight of gold and silver.

EG put in 5k XMR, get monthly fiat payments equal to 5oz au + 100oz ag.

Who makes these kind of deals?  Goldman and JPMorgan types?

Epic posts btw.  You're on fire these days! 

At least Ginger and Mary Anne were there.

Yep.  Nothing for them to do on Monero Island except "research" with Professor iCEBREAKER. 

[aminorex]

is it still worth to buy monero?

I buy a small amount every week no matter where the price is and haven't regretted it yet. Only wish I had been doing it sooner (as in before alphabay).

The next Alphabay will have a much, much larger impact on the fundamental value of XMR.  For one thing, it won't allow BTC or ZEC (insert image of Cazes hanging by his belt in a Bankok jail cell).  For another, it will grow faster and to a much larger size:. The pent-up demand will be enormous, and the fear factor involved in using BTC or ZEC won't be there to inhibit transactions.

But bootstrapping trust requires magic.  How long that will take, I do not know.  If it takes too long, a technical solution will emerge.

[elrippos friend]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

XMR Billionaire club members: Risto, TheKoziTwo, aminorex, ArcticMine, Smoothie, smooth, tacotime, MoneroMoo, fluffypony
 

I think Risto was ejected when he lost his stuffing.

Agreed to that one. Didn't hear much from Risto lately 

[Lucidius]

Bithumb is a very interesting market. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/bithumb/

In order of volume:

1. Ripple
2. Bitcoin Cash
3. Litecoin
4. Ethereum
5. Monero
6. Bitcoin
7. Ethereum Classic
8. Dash

I am not sure what to make of this liquidity order, in particular Bitcoin in 6th place behind Monero.

Edit: Bithumb is the highest volume exchange, which makes the above even more interesting. https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/

This order changes all the time depending on the Koreans flavor of the week - no, more like flavor of the day.

Right after the monero listing for example it was number one

During the BCH pump, BCH was #1, however I am very surprised to see it at #2 - probably partly responsible for why its held at ~600 for so long

I always wonder why they like Ripple so much - they keep going back to it and playing around with it.

You can bet your hat that Monero is going to be #1 this weekend on there - its the 'Whose The Biggest Whale Trader Event' This Sat 00:00 to Sun 23:59 (their time ofc)

That litecoin spike a few days or so ago - LTC was #1 for them I believe I saw

(I check a lot to see when they decide to give Monero another go - whatever their flavor of the day is it always gets a bit of a spike followed by correction)

Anyways, this weekend should be pretty bloody. While some think there might be a dump - I predict otherwise. Especially given the consolidation at current ~2900000/3000000 levels (and what I suspect to be some price suppression on the whales' part while they accumulate), the whales are going to be taking the gloves off and trying to snipe each others' stacks ~ price pump. Of course, if buying at current level look out for the dump which may land us around the 160 range, if the top is at 200. Of course it could end up much much more than that. ie 250 drop-to from 400. Should be fun! They will be accumulating in earnest (IE sell walls gone) from now until the event begins though for sure, bout 10 hours from now.

~ as an addendum I am using those downward wicks (look at the 5min the past couple days) as indicators of hard accumulation coupled with (failed) attempts to dump price / scoop up on the cheap. Already gettin a little bloody

Cant wait to wake up and see where we are. Will set sale points accordingly.

[elrippos friend]

Aha okay, thanks... RangeDriver, you there bro?  Paging RangeDriver Paging RangeDriver

~0.026 marks the 38.2% retraction and coincides with previous resistance.

That should be a pretty reliable floor if you're able to get in there.

I think we will dip below 0,026  

If so, I shall be very, very happy to buy them.

If Monero can drop down under that price, I will comeback margin trade and putting all my money, lol !
I do not think Monero can dip below 0,02 BTC again like earlier of this year.

I remember someone sayng here that it would be impossible to see monero bellow 0.015 again. and it did for several weeks. At that time it seemed very reallistic to see monero hold above 0.015 as it seems reallistic to see it hold 0.02 now...

I think it's oversold right now, so i speculate on a drop down to 0,024xxx in the next days  

I dont think we will see much of a drop before Sunday, unless BTC goes $7000+ .  But after Sunday you never know what will happen, things move fast in crypto. In one week everything can change.  In September we will have new GUI and hard fork.  Possibly more things that i cant even think right now could attract people to Monero.

Well, we shall see

[DaveyJones]

Well, we shall see

Shh go away with your predictions you were already right last year    I personally expect atleast one last cycle upwards with the correction after that.

[Cryptobrant]

Can someone help me understand how BTC price impacts XMR price? I am completely unaware of the correlation. Is a high price good or bad short term (for this weekend)? 

Really hope to cash on the action this time as I didn't during the first event 

[Globb0]

They moved opposite for a while, then they moved together for a while.

Now they seem quite disconnected imho?

[explorer]

They moved opposite for a while, then they moved together for a while.

Now they seem quite disconnected imho?

I agree that is doesn't seem predictable lately.  Currently XMR edging higher, while BTC nudges out new ATH's.

[CryptoPH]

Speculation:  There will be XMR billionaires by the end of next year.  Wrap your hear around THAT one.

I wouldn’t go that far. I mean even if it quadrupled in price (hitting 600$) then in order for somebody to be a billionaire then they’d need to be holding 250 million dollars worth of Monero. Even if it went 1 thousand times you'd still need a million worth of XMR to become a billionaire.

The math is not complicated.  400K XMR @ $2500 and there you go.  or 200K @ $5000.  Manipulate at will.  16 month window,   Say 5X BTC increase, and 5X XMR:BTC increase, or some combination (would put XMR ~$3500).   We just had a 2X in 8 hours, and 3X in a week in XMR.   BTC is up about 5X in the last 8 months.  Is that a lot?  Yeah, it sure is.  Hardly unprecedented though. 

That would be quite a call. You don't see a dip in price or a correction. IT was quite a big rise from 50 --> 150ish.

Of course there will be corrections.  But a 3X move in crypto can't be called big.  It took a whole week.  What do you call the 10X, 20X + moves?
 Bitcoin 100X in 2013
Monero  ~20X in 2016 (~10x so far 2017, looking like that can be made into 20+ pretty soon).
ETH whatever astronomical rise it had in 2016-2017
You think its all over?  Shut off the lights, there's nothing left to see in this space? 
S p e c u l a t i o n .

Yes, S p e c u l a t i o n !
Damn my experience in trading stocks led me to misjudging and bad timing, and selling too early. XMR and other worthy cryptos are different animals, so I decided to just HODL.

P.S.: Sold 20% of my XMR, and I found it very challenging to buy them back. 

[CryptoPH]

They moved opposite for a while, then they moved together for a while.

Now they seem quite disconnected imho?

We'll see when they move together again. Last time they moved together, XMR went higher by huge percentage relative to BTC.

[TMAN]

this competition will 100% make XMR rise, who wants to win a prize when the value is less? The Koreans will push this mother up to double ATH

[krizniq]

this competition will 100% make XMR rise, who wants to win a prize when the value is less? The Koreans will push this mother up to double ATH

I think all this Korean stuff is overhyped a bit.... yes price went up nicely, but now it's stable and no sight to another double.

[minger1015]

this competition will 100% make XMR rise, who wants to win a prize when the value is less? The Koreans will push this mother up to double ATH

I hope you are right. Double the ATH means $400+

Not sure that can be achieved within 2 days, but strap in and lets see!

[pikadut]

this competition will 100% make XMR rise, who wants to win a prize when the value is less? The Koreans will push this mother up to double ATH

I hope you are right. Double the ATH means $400+

Not sure that can be achieved within 2 days, but strap in and lets see!

I think monero will rise again the price, especially now that many of the same interests of this coin,
hopefully it can price to the moon

[minger1015]

this competition will 100% make XMR rise, who wants to win a prize when the value is less? The Koreans will push this mother up to double ATH

I hope you are right. Double the ATH means $400+

Not sure that can be achieved within 2 days, but strap in and lets see!

I think monero will rise again the price, especially now that many of the same interests of this coin,
hopefully it can price to the moon

We shall see, I really cannot speculate any more compared to everyone else.

I find it awfully hard to believe that it will be pumped to $300-400 that would just be insane.

However we shall see its going to be interesting an hour before the event and once the event kicks off and this will be for 2 days straight.  So people need to sleep and relax so I have no idea whats going to happen.  Event starts at midnight for them, so not expecting much and more in their morning.

[Cryptobrant]

I wish I could watch how those whales proceed, just one time in my life. Sit in their office or bedroom or whatever place they use to trade and observe.
(I'd be happy to swim with real whales in the ocean too, but this is another story.)

[Febo]

Can someone help me understand how BTC price impacts XMR price? I am completely unaware of the correlation. Is a high price good or bad short term (for this weekend)? 

Really hope to cash on the action this time as I didn't during the first event 

Short term high BTC price is negative since people get scared BTC will suddenlly triple and sell their precious Monero for it. Long term is positive since Monero at $150 looks way cheaper when BTC is $10k then when is $1k.

For retirement, I'd like to put a few thousand in a structured product that pays out in fiat a fixed weight of gold and silver.

EG put in 5k XMR, get monthly fiat payments equal to 5oz au + 100oz ag.

I think 100 XMR will be more then enough for something like that. Well it depends of your lifestyle, but with 5000 XMR you can retire by the end of a year.