[XMR] Monero Speculation

[generalizethis]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Risto's claimed amount that was stolen from him.

[1576457733]

1576457733

[smooth]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

Regarding Risto's claim: I have a hard time believing such a claim, because his activity coincided with a very low volume period in Monero's history. Acquiring that many coins would have caused a much greater price (and risk) increase, which I imagine would defeat the purpose of owning such an amount in the first place.

He's probably exaggerating his holdings by at least a factor of 2.

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era. And even if a moderately high net worth individual wanted to acquire 700k XMR during that time, he would not have gotten them all at 25 cents. I assume he would've cleared the order book before even getting his first 100k coins.

[generalizethis]

do we have any speculation on how many coins the biggest fish in the monero sea holds?

100k? 300k? do we think anyone out there has a million xmr?

disclaimer: i know it's more than me.

700k was the highest I know of--though those were lost at sea in a hack.

I've never heard of anyone having 700k. I'd guess the largest (individual) holder has under 500k XMR. Probably even less.

Remember at one point XMR was under 25 cents. 700k would not have been a particularly large position for even a moderately high net worth individual.

Regarding Risto's claim: I have a hard time believing such a claim, because his activity coincided with a very low volume period in Monero's history. Acquiring that many coins would have caused a much greater price (and risk) increase, which I imagine would defeat the purpose of owning such an amount in the first place.

He's probably exaggerating his holdings by at least a factor of 2.

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era.

Risto has always been enthusiastic and vocal about Monero and has never been one to need prompting from the herd to support his opinions, so while I may doubt the hack, I don't doubt the amount--what's great is we'll never know

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

[Globb0]

Actually he was an advocate of buy the dips and sell the highs. Then rinse and repeat.

I have always been too scared after a bit of a big loss when it never came back.

[smooth]

@smooth: I'm not questioning the possibility as much as I'm questioning the reasoning/motive during that time. There wasn't exactly a huge amount of confidence during the 25 cent era. And even if a moderately high net worth individual wanted to acquire 700k XMR during that time, he would not have gotten them all at 25 cents. I assume he would've cleared the order book before even getting his first 100k coins.

I'm not so sure about that. Remember 9 million coins were mined (and likely a large fraction of that dumped onto the market) over the first 18 months. Someone wanting to accumulate not even 10% of that could probably do so at a good steady rate without ever clearing the book (in fact possibly without ever making a market order).

Anyway, it doesn't really matter.

[Billy Bunter]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

[LennyCarl]

Well who the hell has so many moneros that they are willing to loan them out for tiny fractions of a percent on the exchanges?  I mean what is the point...to acquire even more on the cheap?

[explorer]

Well who the hell has so many moneros that they are willing to loan them out for tiny fractions of a percent on the exchanges?  I mean what is the point...to acquire even more on the cheap?

Somebody with a pile of coins for rent cheap died a couple years ago, and those coins just keep lending, and lending, and lending...

Or

Lots of rope is left out, the better to hang shorters when the time comes.  It has always been thus with monero.  > 0.01 % rates happen, but rarely.


add:

33K coins available (not all cheap). Wasn't long ago that anything under 150k was a low float.  Coins under 0.01%  only ~1100 XMR

[Globb0]

Well who the hell has so many moneros that they are willing to loan them out for tiny fractions of a percent on the exchanges?  I mean what is the point...to acquire even more on the cheap?

[LennyCarl]

Haha. I guess eventually the rates will skyrocket and one could take advantage of the auto renewals of the shorters...

[Hueristic]

Who flagged my post and got it deleted? And why? Anyone else having perfectly innocuous posts deleted by mods? Very strange.

I get short posts deleted all the time, since they are just quick replys I don't mind. they are usually off topic.

Fungibility and conversion: https://mechanicalmarkets.wordpress.com/2017/11/05/bitcoin-nemo-dat/

Now how would this extend say to the monero's I bought with btc that are still on said exchange? Hmm

Haha. I guess eventually the rates will skyrocket and one could take advantage of the auto renewals of the shorters...

Yeah, that happened to me on a large Eth short in the past. Ate all my profits from holding that short for a month and a half. I closed when I broke even and then it dumped like mad, shit my timing sux!

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

EDIT: Also, the Nov. 1st 2016 run from $4 to $18.5 almost fits the pattern.

[LennyCarl]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

I like Keanu's reasoning!

[LennyCarl]

Yeah, that happened to me on a large Eth short in the past. Ate all my profits from holding that short for a month and a half. I closed when I broke even and then it dumped like mad, shit my timing sux!

Sucks it happened to you in that case but I'm okay with burning xmr shorters.

[Billy Bunter]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

EDIT: Also, the Nov. 1st 2016 run from $4 to $18.5 almost fits the pattern.

Interesting analysis. Thank you.

[Bitcoinaire]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

EDIT: Also, the Nov. 1st 2016 run from $4 to $18.5 almost fits the pattern.

According to that data, we should hit several thousand dollars next year.

[ArticMine]

Did I mention that masses does not price privacy? Did i mention that masses price SECURITY?

First of all, many people do value privacy. Second, why not have both (like in the case of Monero).


--

Privacy is not priced... Ask your neighbour - "if you have nothing to hide, why to hide?" - regular answer.

The Germans kept records of people’s ethnicity and religion. Guess how Hitler used it (in case you’re a bad guesser: he used it to track down Jews).

It goes a lot further than this. There was very sophisticated data analytics behind the Holocaust involving IBM punched cards and tabulating machines. In fact one could actually argue that the Holocaust was powered by punched cards and tabulating machines. To anyone who believes that privacy has no value I highly recommend Edwin Black IBM and the Holocaust http://www.ibmandtheholocaust.com/ A list of "consumers of kosher food in continental Europe" may sound innocent enough after all it is only going to be used to target relevant adds for groceries to those who have a particular interest in purchasing kosher food, thereby enhancing their consumer experience. Now time shift this list by 80 years and one has a critical component for mass genocide.

Now I am not saying that Monero may prevent a future genocide; however if all it does is gum up the gears of genocide, by denying the machinery of genocide the data it craves, then Monero has the potential to save millions of lives.

[explorer]

I doubt the amount because guys like TheKoziTwo were involved earlier than Risto. He created the first Monero exchange and was in a much better position to acquire a such a large amount, but IIRC he indicated he had less than half of that. Buying 700k coins during that time on the open market doesn't seem possible without a massive price run (which never really happened. USD high post Mintpal pump was like $3). And I doubt he was making any significant OTC purchases either. The community wasn't that big at the time.

EDIT: back to speculation. If XMR breaks $110 this week we will be on target to $425 by December.

I'm curious how you arrive at that figure. Has it really been pulled from somewhere the sun don't shine or is there a rational basis for it?

It's a very rough assumption based on past market runs. Monero went from about $3 to $15 last year (5x increase), from about $12 (March 10th) to a high of $60 earlier this year (5x increase), then from $30 on July 16th to $150 (5x increase). So if our last strong support was at $85 then I'm predicting our next 5x run will bring us to $425, which should happen no later than December 15th (45 day interval).

EDIT: Also, the Nov. 1st 2016 run from $4 to $18.5 almost fits the pattern.

According to that data, we should hit several thousand dollars next year.

Along with $20K BTC, it wouldn't be shocking.  Shit's gonna get interesting, that's for sure.