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[firetreeactual]

Agreed...on both. I'm not knowledgeable enough on the particular subject to opine further. IOW, since I don't have a clue past seeing correlation, I probably need to shut up and just see what happens. I think eventually we'll know, even if we don't break our proverbial necks trying.

...and, stats was ALWAYS my least favorite area.  

EDIT: Spot's at $677...sumthin's up.

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[ZACHM]

I think maybe everyone is thinking about this way too hard.

I may be wrong, but I think Kano already has a way of determining if a user is doing what they should within the statistically expected range. This is akin to the discussion awhile ago about block withholding.

If citronick's account shows that things are within the statistically expected range, he should be all set.

[kano]

Well since it's got to the extreme level of even organofcorti commenting on it, I'll post the magic numbers for citronick

All history:
23.51741743 BDR : 26 Blocks - good!

Since the halving (i.e. a subset of the above numbers):
11.32364258 BDR : 11 Blocks - no problem at all

i.e. he's found more blocks than expected, and since the halving, very close to expected.

I've not really said anything about it since my post on the Bitmain S9 stats, since as I said there:

Kano it would be interesting to know if s9's are in some way having a negative effect on your pool. If they are it would be in the best interest of the pool that they go somewhere else including mine. Just curious.

Well for miner types directly connected to the pool (not via a proxy)

Since they first existed:
67.76844935 BDR for 60 blocks - so not excellent, but not impossible: CDF[Erl] 0.842606

Since the halving (excluding the data before the halving):
63.99816529 BDR for 57 blocks CDF[Erl] 0.825166 (thus a little better)
But since the halving there are worse - the longer term figures are (usually) statistically more relevant

(there seems to be a v2 bmminer that's found no blocks so far, but the BDR is only 0.07520162)

They do have the worst luck and the worst CDF on the pool for miner types connected directly to the pool.
But the numbers aren't in the realms of improbability - and it doesn't include any using proxies.

However there is (only) one "proxy type" with a worse CDF
stratehm-stratum-proxy-0.8.0 7.76724928 BDR 3 blocks: CDF[Erl] 0.983517

As I said above, that's only S9's connected directly to the pool, if they use a proxy then they wont show up in those numbers.
...

They do have the worst luck and the worst CDF on the pool for miner types connected directly to the pool.
But the numbers aren't in the realms of improbability - and it doesn't include any using proxies.

i.e. the number in that quote

... so not excellent, but not impossible: CDF[Erl] 0.842606

Edit: actually the updated numbers since that post - since there's been a few more bmminer blocks and of course a higher BDR
bmminer 71.24030662 BDR : 65 Blocks CDF[Erl]: 0.785699
bmminer2 0.19718556 BDR no blocks yet

[Sierra8561]

I moved my S9's as well. Although there isn't any hard proof that S9's don't do as well on Kano, I didn't want to drag the pool down. I'd much rather bring my 300th back

[firetreeactual]

I moved my S9's as well. Although there isn't any hard proof that S9's don't do as well on Kano, I didn't want to drag the pool down. I'd much rather bring my 300th back

I think that's been my point, Sierra...and I also think you folks with the blocks of S9s are doing a good thing, even if the pool rate suffers for a bit...but it does seem, at least in this short(er) term, that we're not doing so badly. Y'all will be back, I tink. 

[Biodom]

moving kano's pool payments...
1.5 BTC equals about 17000 bytes for me a.k.a lots of bytes.
I have been playing to see what is the minimal sat/byte network will accept and confirm within, say, 4-6 hr. 10 min confirm is unneeded.
Of course, 21co rec 100sat/byte, but I recon that even 15-20 sat/byte for a large byte size transaction would do (at least a couple of days ago).
It works for me and saves basically 80-85%.
What is your experience?

[firetreeactual]

Block!

EDIT: $685   

[Newko]

Yay! Good start to the new day.  
BTW, hate to admit it but I had to look up definition of "Organ of Corti". Guess I forgot most my high school biology. Man, the inner ear is one heck of an amazing piece of biological technology! I'm not smart enough to have a handle called "OrganOfCorti". If I had to pick a handle based on part of our hearing I probably would just be "Ear Lobe". Hahaha. Mine on!

[EDIT] @Organofcorti: Just to be clear, no way do I mean any disrespect to you. On the contrary, I am complimenting you as I assume you are a super smart person, just like Kano. Intellect wise, no way I can keep up with you guys.

[kano]

moving kano's pool payments...
1.5 BTC equals about 17000 bytes for me a.k.a lots of bytes.
I have been playing to see what is the minimal sat/byte network will accept and confirm within, say, 4-6 hr. 10 min confirm is unneeded.
Of course, 21co rec 100sat/byte, but I recon that even 15-20 sat/byte for a large byte size transaction would do (at least a couple of days ago).
It works for me and saves basically 80-85%.
What is your experience?

Well if you haven't actually sent it yet, you could try lower and see if we pick it up in the next block.
As long as it gets to (and stays at) the pool, the pool should confirm it, but I guess the problem may be if other bitcoin nodes will at least relay it.
Zero fee usually wont get relayed, but I'm not all too sure on the general 'average' rules bitcoin nodes use to relay transactions to other nodes.

[kano]

Block! by invvpnet

[Newko]

Woohoo! Gotta love those back-to-back blocks! 

[CryptoBuddha]

Nice green lawn all over the place again)))   Accepting variance in both its forms is Buddhism v2.0.  

[fvineyard]

Be nice to see us confirm our own block. The network is at 20 mins now.

[citronick]

Well since it's got to the extreme level of even organofcorti commenting on it, I'll post the magic numbers for citronick

All history:
23.51741743 BDR : 26 Blocks - good!

Since the halving (i.e. a subset of the above numbers):
11.32364258 BDR : 11 Blocks - no problem at all

i.e. he's found more blocks than expected, and since the halving, very close to expected.

I've not really said anything about it since my post on the Bitmain S9 stats, since as I said there:

<<snippped>>

Hi Kano,
Thanks for expanding the BDR explanation.

I know my own BDR is OK in kano pool.

However the S9 BDR seems to suggest otherwise - with your new data, it looks like S9 BDR overall is improving.

Since Juvia farm is 100% S9s and over 1PH, it will be easy to point fingers to Juvia if the above BDR or any other "luck" analysis stacks poorly against S9s - thats was my main concern and reason for taking the graceful way out...

Hi Phillipma, organofcorti & others,
I cannot afford to do any 5-days tests as suggested because my investors wants Juvia at full speed mining especially when BTC is trending up. As long as I have assurance from kano that S9s are still "behaving and within luck parameters", the tests are not needed ...

Offtopic - my question to "organofcorti"...
Its not always, I see pioneer members like "organofcorti" commenting on a "small topic" like this one on "S9 bad luck" ; I would like his comment and long term outlook, on the lack of mining equipment and monopoly of a single vendor in this industry. Recently, my investors and I, frustrated with Bitmain and sub-par S9s, we forgo buying more S9s, and invested in more GPU rigs for ETH and ZEC mining. I forsee that this is going be a key sanity check for miners in general. What is your opinion?

Thanks

citronick

[organofcorti]

<snip>
Offtopic - my question to "organofcorti"...
Its not always, I see pioneer members like "organofcorti" commenting on a "small topic" like this one on "S9 bad luck" ; I would like his comment and long term outlook, on the lack of mining equipment and monopoly of a single vendor in this industry. Recently, my investors and I, frustrated with Bitmain and sub-par S9s, we forgo buying more S9s, and invested in more GPU rigs for ETH and ZEC mining. I forsee that this is going be a key sanity check for miners in general. What is your opinion?

Thanks

citronick

Mining luck is never off topic on this board, and it's not a small topic. In fact (as long term miners will tell you) it's a bit of a hobby horse for me, dating back to the 2011 (unfounded) accusations of malfeasance against BTC Guild after a period of bad luck on that pool. I've written a little introduction to mining luck here: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2015/07/faq-bitcoin-mining-and-luck-statistic.html

As for your actual (and offtopic) question, my opinion (and it's just that) is that rather than miners moving to altcoins, a market leader in btc mining equipment that creates a poor product and provides no recompense to customers is likely to provide fertile soil for the entry of a new manufacturer of btc mining equipment.

[Newko]

I moved my S9's as well. Although there isn't any hard proof that S9's don't do as well on Kano, I didn't want to drag the pool down. I'd much rather bring my 300th back

And many thanks to you too kind sir, for being a stand up citizen of Kano CKPool and putting the good of the pool ahead of yourself.  Now c'mon back...you also belong here my friend.

[citronick]

<snip>
Offtopic - my question to "organofcorti"...
Its not always, I see pioneer members like "organofcorti" commenting on a "small topic" like this one on "S9 bad luck" ; I would like his comment and long term outlook, on the lack of mining equipment and monopoly of a single vendor in this industry. Recently, my investors and I, frustrated with Bitmain and sub-par S9s, we forgo buying more S9s, and invested in more GPU rigs for ETH and ZEC mining. I forsee that this is going be a key sanity check for miners in general. What is your opinion?

Thanks

citronick

Mining luck is never off topic on this board, and it's not a small topic. In fact (as long term miners will tell you) it's a bit of a hobby horse for me, dating back to the 2011 (unfounded) accusations of malfeasance against BTC Guild after a period of bad luck on that pool. I've written a little introduction to mining luck here: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2015/07/faq-bitcoin-mining-and-luck-statistic.html

As for your actual (and offtopic) question, my opinion (and it's just that) is that rather than miners moving to altcoins, a market leader in btc mining equipment that creates a poor product and provides no recompense to customers is likely to provide fertile soil for the entry of a new manufacturer of btc mining equipment.

thanks for your insights organofcorti - while I agree with your comments on market leadership and potential market opportunnities, I would like to take the approach of "men doesn't live on bread alone" on the more noteworthy alt coins of late.

[clgrissom3]

<snip>
Offtopic - my question to "organofcorti"...
Its not always, I see pioneer members like "organofcorti" commenting on a "small topic" like this one on "S9 bad luck" ; I would like his comment and long term outlook, on the lack of mining equipment and monopoly of a single vendor in this industry. Recently, my investors and I, frustrated with Bitmain and sub-par S9s, we forgo buying more S9s, and invested in more GPU rigs for ETH and ZEC mining. I forsee that this is going be a key sanity check for miners in general. What is your opinion?

Thanks

citronick

Mining luck is never off topic on this board, and it's not a small topic. In fact (as long term miners will tell you) it's a bit of a hobby horse for me, dating back to the 2011 (unfounded) accusations of malfeasance against BTC Guild after a period of bad luck on that pool. I've written a little introduction to mining luck here: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2015/07/faq-bitcoin-mining-and-luck-statistic.html

As for your actual (and offtopic) question, my opinion (and it's just that) is that rather than miners moving to altcoins, a market leader in btc mining equipment that creates a poor product and provides no recompense to customers is likely to provide fertile soil for the entry of a new manufacturer of btc mining equipment.

We are hoping and praying every day for a new manufacture to step in and offer a viable alternative to the current monopoly.

[n200UG]

I moved my S9's as well. Although there isn't any hard proof that S9's don't do as well on Kano, I didn't want to drag the pool down. I'd much rather bring my 300th back

And many thanks to you too kind sir, for being a stand up citizen of Kano CKPool and putting the good of the pool ahead of yourself.  Now c'mon back...you also belong here my friend.

After the low luck in October I got an affair with Slush and missed out on all the green block... Will humbly bring the miner back tomorrow ready for Block Friday   

[kano]

I moved my S9's as well. Although there isn't any hard proof that S9's don't do as well on Kano, I didn't want to drag the pool down. I'd much rather bring my 300th back

And many thanks to you too kind sir, for being a stand up citizen of Kano CKPool and putting the good of the pool ahead of yourself.  Now c'mon back...you also belong here my friend.

After the low luck in October I got an affair with Slush and missed out on all the green block... Will humbly bring the miner back tomorrow ready for Block Friday    

October ... well ... maybe August?

October was an early run of very good luck until the 12th (40 block 115% luck)
It went down hill after that for the next 9 blocks (to 49 blocks 93% luck)
But fortunately undid all that and more (as you can see now) ... so far ...

I guess the thing to remember is that luck changes every block, so unless you think there's actually something wrong with the pool, changing pools wont change your expected luck, since luck isn't affected by what came before ... (again, unless there's a problem with the pool)

I will, however, add a comment I've made before that people should of course know:
Luck doesn't correct itself by design, only by accident.
You always expect even luck, never more or less, and over time that means bad (or good) luck converges to even luck.
The fact that we so often (but not always) correct bad luck streaks quickly with good luck, isn't what is expected, it's simply 'good luck' to do that

Edit: actually September is worth looking at to see how fickle luck can be
Up until before the 715% block, the luck for September was: 105 blocks 102% luck - so ahead of the game.
That one 715% block of course dragged that down to 96.6% luck for 106 blocks
The rest of the month, 4 blocks, 100.1% luck made it only trickle a little closer to 100% - month total 110 blocks 96.73%
But really, considering there was our largest diff% block of ALL TIME in September, we still managed 96.73% luck - and 98.67% PPS - better than any PPS Pool that has a fee of 1.5% or more ...