Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[dooglus]

A close-up of the recent losses.  The graph shows the result after each block in the blockchain.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Jul-31 05:41am (up to block 191667)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    11727 |      0 (0.00000) |  11443 |     284 |      70.51 |       0.01 |    18.39 |     70.49 |   0.027
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1100 |      0 (0.00000) |   1030 |      70 |      16.59 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     16.59 |   0.011
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1649 |      0 (0.00000) |   1615 |      34 |      20.22 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     20.20 |   0.105
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1357 |      1 (0.00076) |   1315 |      41 |      32.29 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     24.23 |  24.940
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     1666 |      1 (0.00061) |   1632 |      33 |      66.58 |       4.19 |     7.40 |     62.39 |   6.301
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4082 |      2 (0.00049) |   4069 |      11 |     279.32 |     103.07 |     1.29 |    176.24 |  36.903
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     5848 |      8 (0.00137) |   5823 |      17 |     297.90 |     123.01 |    55.64 |    174.89 |  41.292
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     6852 |     17 (0.00250) |   6787 |      48 |    1287.05 |    1173.89 |    40.25 |    113.16 |  91.208
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     5958 |     29 (0.00488) |   5915 |      14 |     628.85 |     572.02 |    13.11 |     56.83 |  90.961
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |     8998 |     65 (0.00723) |   8928 |       5 |    1750.86 |    1184.79 |     9.35 |    566.06 |  67.669
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    16619 |    252 (0.01517) |  16363 |       4 |    3629.95 |    3832.94 |     1.80 |   -202.98 | 105.592
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |     8971 |    210 (0.02342) |   8755 |       6 |    3256.52 |    3665.55 |    15.00 |   -409.03 | 112.560
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    11697 |    365 (0.03121) |  11329 |       3 |    3649.33 |    3357.27 |     9.24 |    292.06 |  91.997
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |     9032 |    433 (0.04798) |   8592 |       7 |    5311.40 |    6811.54 |    24.99 |  -1500.13 | 128.244
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    10248 |    634 (0.06188) |   9611 |       3 |    3575.44 |    3172.49 |    31.20 |    402.95 |  88.730
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    17084 |   1616 (0.09464) |  15459 |       9 |    9088.32 |    9238.60 |     7.01 |   -150.28 | 101.654
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    38621 |   4760 (0.12330) |  33846 |      15 |    7039.38 |    6264.99 |     0.00 |    774.39 |  88.999
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    17365 |   3299 (0.19005) |  14060 |       6 |    7001.71 |    7185.66 |    14.50 |   -183.95 | 102.627
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    46642 |  11324 (0.24283) |  35310 |       8 |   16403.84 |   17048.85 |   347.79 |   -645.01 | 103.932
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    34622 |  12801 (0.37009) |  21788 |      33 |   15767.49 |   15741.53 |   212.63 |     25.96 |  99.835
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   335284 | 163400 (0.48756) | 171738 |     146 |  119644.56 |  120425.86 |  2173.21 |   -781.29 | 100.653
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   138387 |  69061 (0.49936) |  69238 |      88 |   56947.27 |   55087.39 |   789.20 |   1859.87 |  96.734
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   105554 |  77665 (0.73620) |  27830 |      59 |   94244.00 |   92818.72 |   467.98 |   1425.27 |  98.488
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     2292 |   1846 (0.80541) |    446 |       0 |    5784.23 |    6010.50 |     0.00 |   -226.26 | 103.912
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     1930 |   1643 (0.85218) |    285 |       2 |    1743.37 |    1781.45 |     0.00 |    -38.08 | 102.185
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |      629 |    576 (0.92013) |     50 |       3 |     387.55 |     378.12 |     0.00 |      9.42 |  97.569
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6068 |   5812 (0.97878) |    126 |     130 |    5171.38 |    4974.11 |   239.20 |    197.27 |  96.185
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                                |   850282 | 355820           | 493383 |    1079 |  363096.05 |  360964.73 |  4491.23 |   2131.32 |  99.413
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       2131.32716038 BTC (0.587%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         428.11210000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        1703.21506038 BTC (0.469%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  2599109  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1565771  (60.2%)
Blockchain MB:  1094.2  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 643.7  (58.8%)

[Rygon]

Here's another lucky martingale escape which accounts for the last spike up and back down on the blue line:

Make sure to chronically the flipside too. The failures, though sad, are also entertaining... and can serve as a cautionary tale for others.

Here's a cautionary tale if ever I saw one:

2012-07-28 00:37:45 <24000  Bet:   4.20000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.02050000   Profit:   -4.1795      Cumulative:   -4.1795     
2012-07-28 00:37:54 <24000  Bet:   6.80000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.03350000   Profit:   -6.7665      Cumulative:  -10.946     
2012-07-28 00:38:06 <24000  Bet:  10.80000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.05350000   Profit:  -10.7465      Cumulative:  -21.6925     
2012-07-28 00:38:27 <24000  Bet:  17.20000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.08550000   Profit:  -17.1145      Cumulative:  -38.807     
2012-07-28 00:39:01 <24000  Bet:  27.40000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.13650000   Profit:  -27.2635      Cumulative:  -66.0705     
2012-07-28 00:39:18 <24000  Bet:  43.80000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.21850000   Profit:  -43.5815      Cumulative: -109.652     
2012-07-28 00:39:40 <24000  Bet:  70.00000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.34950000   Profit:  -69.6505      Cumulative: -179.3025   
2012-07-28 00:40:02 <24000  Bet: 112.00000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.55950000   Profit: -111.4405      Cumulative: -290.743     

2012-07-28 00:40:49 <24000  Bet:   4.20000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.02050000   Profit:   -4.1795      Cumulative: -294.9225   
2012-07-28 00:41:04 <24000  Bet:   6.80000000  Outcome: WIN   Payment: 18.15638853   Profit:   11.35638853  Cumulative: -283.56611147

2012-07-28 00:41:25 <24000  Bet:   4.20000000  Outcome: WIN   Payment: 11.21404880   Profit:    7.0140488   Cumulative: -276.55206267

2012-07-28 00:42:29 <24000  Bet:   4.20000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.02050000   Profit:   -4.1795      Cumulative: -280.73156267
2012-07-28 00:43:10 <24000  Bet:   6.80000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.03350000   Profit:   -6.7665      Cumulative: -287.49806267
2012-07-28 00:43:39 <24000  Bet:  10.80000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.05350000   Profit:  -10.7465      Cumulative: -298.24456267
2012-07-28 00:44:19 <24000  Bet:  17.20000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.08550000   Profit:  -17.1145      Cumulative: -315.35906267
2012-07-28 00:48:23 <24000  Bet:  27.40000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.13650000   Profit:  -27.2635      Cumulative: -342.62256267
2012-07-28 00:50:52 <24000  Bet:  43.80000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.21850000   Profit:  -43.5815      Cumulative: -386.20406267
2012-07-28 00:51:23 <24000  Bet:  70.00000000  Outcome: LOSE  Payment:  0.34950000   Profit:  -69.6505      Cumulative: -455.85456267

The odds of losing 8 times in a row on that bet are 2.6%. That's kinda high, imo, for using this kind of strategy. If someone wants to play Martingale and last longer (the house will still eventually win), that probability should be under 1%.The only reason to play that strategy is to last long and the thrill of starting a run and hoping it doesn't go bust.

[dooglus]

So each time you win (97.4% of the time) you win 7, and each time you lose (2.6%) you lose 290.

Expected winnings per round: 0.974 * 7 - 0.026 * 290 = -0.722 BTC.

[byronbb]

I did some calculations for max bet size based on the Kelly Criterion and it seems they should be taking larger wagers for the higher % house wins. With a bankroll of 12K  satoshidice should accept for the 50% bet, a max bet of 258btc. By the same token, for the 12% bet they should take a max bet of 281btc, not 120. Either they are taking bet sizes WAY to big for their bankroll, or they are not maximizing earnings by accepting higher limits for their other wagers.


To calculate this I used an excel function set I used for sportsbetting that I downloaded from here: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/29621-simple-vba-sports-betting-functions-template-excel.html#post256487
The function is SBKELLY(win%,usodds ie -110, kelly size where 1 is max and 0.5 is half). In order for the function to work I had to convert some things from the satoshi website. Basically I was required to invert the players odds and frame it as a bet for the house at odds that paid out greater than the losses. In advantage gambling one seeks to maximize earnings while minimizing the risk of ruin so the Kelly Criterion is implemented. But this is as far as my understanding of it goes as I am merely a monkey with a spreadsheet.
 

Code:

Name,Bet Address,Win Odds,Price Multiplier,House Percent,Expected Return,Min Bet,Max Bet,House Wins %,Player wins %,Effective House %,Effective House Odds,Kelly Criterion % of Bankroll,Max Bet,Bankroll
lessthan 1,1dice1e6pdhLzzWQq7yMidf6j8eAg7pkY ,0.001500%,64000,1.84%,98.16%,0.001,0.05,99.998500%,0.000015625,0.999984375,-6399900,0.04,479.9999999,12000
lessthan 2,1dice1Qf4Br5EYjj9rnHWqgMVYnQWehYG ,0.003100%,31981.573,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,0.1,99.996900%,3.1268E-05,0.999968732,-3198057.3,0.008571237,102.854844,12000
lessthan 4,1dice2pxmRZrtqBVzixvWnxsMa7wN2GCK ,0.006100%,15990.789,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,0.2001,99.993900%,6.2536E-05,0.999937464,-1598978.9,0.024561871,294.742452,12000
lessthan 8,1dice2vQoUkQwDMbfDACM1xz6svEXdhYb ,0.012200%,7995.397,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,0.4002,99.987800%,0.000125072,0.999874928,-799439.7,0.024561566,294.738792,12000
lessthan 16,1dice2WmRTLf1dEk4HH3Xs8LDuXzaHEQU ,0.024400%,3997.701,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,0.8006,99.975600%,0.000250144,0.999749856,-399670.1,0.024560956,294.731472,12000
lessthan 32,1dice2xkjAAiphomEJA5NoowpuJ18HT1s ,0.048800%,1998.853,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,1.6017,99.951200%,0.000500287,0.999499713,-199785.3,0.024559736,294.716832,12000
lessthan 64,1dice2zdoxQHpGRNaAWiqbK82FQhr4fb5 ,0.097700%,999.429,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,3.205,99.902300%,0.001000571,0.998999429,-99842.9,0.023557867,282.694404,12000
lessthan 128,1dice37EemX64oHssTreXEFT3DXtZxVXK ,0.195300%,499.717,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,3.6902,99.804700%,0.002001133,0.997998867,-49871.7,0.024052699,288.632388,12000
lessthan 256,1dice3jkpTvevsohA4Np1yP4uKzG1SRLv ,0.390600%,249.861,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,7.3951,99.609400%,0.004002225,0.995997775,-24886.1,0.024042934,288.515208,12000
lessthan 512,1dice4J1mFEvVuFqD14HzdViHFGi9h4Pp ,0.781300%,124.933,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,14.8497,99.218700%,0.00800429,0.99199571,-12393.3,0.023898471,286.781652,12000
lessthan 1000,1dice5wwEZT2u6ESAdUGG6MHgCpbQqZiy ,1.525900%,63.968,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,29.227,98.474100%,0.015632816,0.984367184,-6296.8,0.023912288,286.947456,12000
lessthan 1500,1dice61SNWEKWdA8LN6G44ewsiQfuCvge ,2.288800%,42.647,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,44.1897,97.711200%,0.023448308,0.976551692,-4164.7,0.023895464,286.745568,12000
lessthan 2000,1dice6DPtUMBpWgv8i4pG8HMjXv9qDJWN ,3.051800%,31.987,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,59.3926,96.948200%,0.0312627,0.9687373,-3098.7,0.023820734,285.848808,12000
lessthan 3000,1dice6gJgPDYz8PLQyJb8cgPBnmWqCSuF ,4.577600%,21.326,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,57.4951,95.422400%,0.046891119,0.953108881,-2032.6,0.023781024,285.372288,12000
lessthan 4000,1dice6GV5Rz2iaifPvX7RMjfhaNPC8SXH ,6.103500%,15.996,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,77.9318,93.896500%,0.062515629,0.937484371,-1499.6,0.02368414,284.20968,12000
lessthan 6000,1dice6wBxymYi3t94heUAG6MpG5eceLG1 ,9.155300%,10.666,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,120.909,90.844700%,0.09375586,0.90624414,-966.6,0.023495702,281.948424,12000
lessthan 8000,1dice6YgEVBf88erBFra9BHf6ZMoyvG88 ,12.207000%,8,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,120.9568,87.793000%,0.125,0.875,-700,0.02344,281.28,12000
lessthan 12000,1dice7EYzJag7SxkdKXLr8Jn14WUb3Cf1 ,18.310500%,5.335,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,152.1241,81.689500%,0.187441425,0.812558575,-433.5,0.023134825,277.6179,12000
lessthan 16000,1dice7fUkz5h4z2wPc1wLMPWgB5mDwKDx ,24.414100%,4.003,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,219.6353,75.585900%,0.249812641,0.750187359,-300.3,0.022703577,272.442924,12000
lessthan 24000,1dice7W2AicHosf5EL3GFDUVga7TgtPFn ,36.621100%,2.67,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,63.378900%,0.374531835,0.625468165,-167,0.02221663,266.59956,12000
lessthan 32000,1dice8EMZmqKvrGE4Qc9bUFf9PX3xaYDp ,48.828100%,2.004,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,51.171900%,0.499001996,0.500998004,-100.4,0.021484876,257.818512,12000
lessthan 32768,1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6 ,50.000000%,1.957,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,50.000000%,0.510986203,0.489013797,104.4932079,0.0215,258,12000
lessthan 48000,1dice9wcMu5hLF4g81u8nioL5mmSHTApw ,73.242200%,1.338,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,26.757800%,0.747384155,0.252615845,295.8579882,0.020019364,240.232368,12000
lessthan 52000,1dicec9k7KpmQaA8Uc8aCCxfWnwEWzpXE ,79.345700%,1.235,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,20.654300%,0.809716599,0.190283401,425.5319149,0.020080605,240.96726,12000
lessthan 56000,1dicegEArYHgbwQZhvr5G9Ah2s7SFuW1y ,85.449200%,1.147,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,14.550800%,0.871839582,0.128160418,680.2721088,0.019897676,238.772112,12000
lessthan 60000,1diceDCd27Cc22HV3qPNZKwGnZ8QwhLTc ,91.552700%,1.071,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,8.447300%,0.933706816,0.066293184,1408.450704,0.019470583,233.646996,12000
lessthan 64000,1dice9wVtrKZTBbAZqz1XiTmboYyvpD3t ,97.656300%,1.004,1.90%,98.10%,0.001,250,2.343700%,0.996015936,0.003984064,25000,0.019530748,234.368976,12000

[dooglus]

I did some calculations for max bet size based on the Kelly Criterion and it seems they should be taking larger wagers for the higher % house wins.

And smaller at the opposite end - there's too much risk there.

How much do you calculate the max bet should be for 'lessthan 64000'?  I got some huge number, like 10k BTC or something like that.

[byronbb]

I did some calculations for max bet size based on the Kelly Criterion and it seems they should be taking larger wagers for the higher % house wins.

And smaller at the opposite end - there's too much risk there.

How much do you calculate the max bet should be for 'lessthan 64000'?  I got some huge number, like 10k BTC or something like that.

Too much risk is only relative to bankroll, but yes, they have it backwards. For less than 64000 I only get 234.368976, for a bankroll of 12K. It is the lessthan 1 which is the amazing one. Apparently the max bet should be 480!! Of course 480 * 64000 is massively beyond 12k, so perhaps either this is a rounding problem OR it is correct and incorporating risk of ruin, which is so minuscule the risk of being in debt forever is obliterated by the more likely fortune.

[dooglus]

Too much risk is only relative to bankroll, but yes, they have it backwards.

I think you must have pawed the wrong buttons on your spreadsheet.  There's no way Kelly would recommend risking more than your bankroll on any bet, like your suggested max bet on lessthan 1 would be doing.  No matter how favourable the odds (SD wins 65535 in 65536 cases), they're still betting 64000 times max bet on them winning - so max bet should better be less than 1/64000th of their bankroll.

[nibor]

I make the number 0.004 as the recommended max bet.

From wikipedia:
Fraction of bankroll = (p (b+1) -1)/b
p is probability of winning
b is the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1"); that is, you could win $b (plus the $1 wagered) for a $1 bet

So if you pretend that for the 64000 to one bet we reverse and pretend that SD bets 64000 and gets back 64001 when the customer "loses" and gets back nothing (i.e. customer keeps the 64000) when the customer "wins".
So p = (65535/65536)=0.999984741
And b= 1/64000 = 0.000015625
This make fraction = (0.999984741 (0.000015625 +1) - 1) / 0.000015625
f=0.0234

So if they have a 12k BTC bankroll this is 280.8 BTC.
But remember this is what SD are "betting" in our case so we need to divide by 64000.

Recommended Max Bet = 280.8/64000 = 0.00438 BTC

Which sounds very low, but I think this is because the house edge is so small. Meaning that if you did have a loss and pay out 280.8BTC takes a LONG time before you make it back.

[nibor]

And repeating this for the less than 64000 bet we have:

b = (1/ (1.004-1)) = 250
p= ((64000-65536)/65536)=0.0234375

f= 0.01953

So should bet 12000 * 0.02 = 234BTC (assuming 12k BTC bankroll)
Again have to translate this into max bet.

Max Bet = 234/1.004 = 233BTC

Which again sounds low to me, but again this I assume is due to how low the house edge is.


In fact they should just adjust all their max bets so that the max payout is about 2% of their bankroll.

[dooglus]

So if you pretend that for the 64000 to one bet we reverse and pretend that SD bets 64000 and gets back 64001 when the customer "loses" and gets back nothing (i.e. customer keeps the 64000) when the customer "wins".

You're close, but off by one I think.

When the customer bets 1 on "lessthan 1" and wins, they get back 64000.

From SD's point of view, they have lost 63999, not 64000.

So SD is betting 63999 and getting back 64000 when the customer loses.

Re-run your numbers taking that into consideration.  You'll find a significantly different result in the "lessthan 64000" case.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Aug-01 10:47am (up to block 191840)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    12128 |      0 (0.00000) |  11844 |     284 |      73.22 |       0.01 |    18.39 |     73.20 |   0.026
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1106 |      0 (0.00000) |   1036 |      70 |      16.69 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     16.68 |   0.011
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1656 |      0 (0.00000) |   1622 |      34 |      20.31 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     20.29 |   0.105
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1365 |      1 (0.00076) |   1323 |      41 |      32.61 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     24.56 |  24.693
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     1669 |      1 (0.00061) |   1635 |      33 |      66.64 |       4.19 |     7.40 |     62.44 |   6.296
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4088 |      2 (0.00049) |   4075 |      11 |     279.44 |     103.07 |     1.29 |    176.36 |  36.887
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     5861 |      8 (0.00137) |   5836 |      17 |     298.52 |     123.01 |    55.64 |    175.51 |  41.206
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     6866 |     17 (0.00249) |   6801 |      48 |    1287.22 |    1173.89 |    40.25 |    113.32 |  91.196
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     6031 |     29 (0.00482) |   5988 |      14 |     630.00 |     572.02 |    13.11 |     57.98 |  90.795
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |     9084 |     65 (0.00716) |   9014 |       5 |    1752.58 |    1184.79 |     9.35 |    567.79 |  67.603
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    17246 |    263 (0.01525) |  16979 |       4 |    4194.47 |    4557.80 |     1.80 |   -363.32 | 108.662
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |     8986 |    211 (0.02350) |   8769 |       6 |    3257.16 |    3669.82 |    15.00 |   -412.66 | 112.669
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    14110 |    441 (0.03126) |  13666 |       3 |    3692.13 |    3410.03 |     9.24 |    282.10 |  92.359
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |     9034 |    434 (0.04808) |   8593 |       7 |    5311.55 |    6813.67 |    24.99 |  -1502.11 | 128.280
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    10336 |    642 (0.06213) |   9691 |       3 |    3579.01 |    3178.72 |    31.20 |    400.28 |  88.816
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    17137 |   1623 (0.09476) |  15505 |       9 |    9096.03 |    9252.83 |     7.01 |   -156.80 | 101.724
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    38906 |   4802 (0.12347) |  34089 |      15 |    7052.62 |    6276.49 |     0.00 |    776.12 |  88.995
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    17481 |   3319 (0.18993) |  14156 |       6 |    7074.36 |    7258.83 |    14.50 |   -184.47 | 102.608
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    47546 |  11554 (0.24305) |  35984 |       8 |   16490.17 |   17125.87 |   347.79 |   -635.69 | 103.855
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    34702 |  12830 (0.37008) |  21838 |      34 |   15779.02 |   15752.11 |   212.63 |     26.91 |  99.829
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   337748 | 164618 (0.48762) | 172977 |     153 |  124220.31 |  125045.39 |  2173.21 |   -825.07 | 100.664
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   139303 |  69498 (0.49921) |  69717 |      88 |   57282.04 |   55445.16 |   789.20 |   1836.88 |  96.793
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   106598 |  78412 (0.73599) |  28127 |      59 |   96518.18 |   94807.08 |   467.98 |   1711.09 |  98.227
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     2352 |   1891 (0.80400) |    461 |       0 |    6379.34 |    6598.82 |     0.00 |   -219.47 | 103.440
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     2074 |   1765 (0.85183) |    307 |       2 |    2412.50 |    2412.63 |     0.00 |     -0.13 | 100.005
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |      678 |    623 (0.92296) |     52 |       3 |     408.63 |     400.03 |     0.00 |      8.60 |  97.895
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6083 |   5827 (0.97883) |    126 |     130 |    5178.49 |    4981.24 |   239.20 |    197.25 |  96.191
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |   860174 | 358876           | 500211 |    1087 |  372383.39 |  370155.69 |  4491.23 |   2227.69 |  99.402
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       2227.69536869 BTC (0.598%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         433.11497500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        1794.58039369 BTC (0.482%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  2642435  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1583590  (59.9%)
Blockchain MB:  1112.8  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 651.2  (58.5%)

[byronbb]

Too much risk is only relative to bankroll, but yes, they have it backwards.

I think you must have pawed the wrong buttons on your spreadsheet.  There's no way Kelly would recommend risking more than your bankroll on any bet, like your suggested max bet on lessthan 1 would be doing.  No matter how favourable the odds (SD wins 65535 in 65536 cases), they're still betting 64000 times max bet on them winning - so max bet should better be less than 1/64000th of their bankroll.

Yes I think the function breaks because I input the house odds of -6399900 (lay 6399900 to win 1) and it is much too large. I believe the rest are correct. Here is a kelly calculator http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/ if anyone wants to play with it.

[dooglus]

More bad results for SatoshiDice.  And they seem to have stopped responding to users with payment issues too (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96664.0, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77870.0)

Results: 2012-Aug-03 09:32am (up to block 192158)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    12426 |      0 (0.00000) |  12141 |     285 |      78.33 |       0.01 |    18.39 |     78.31 |   0.025
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1144 |      0 (0.00000) |   1074 |      70 |      17.19 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     17.19 |   0.010
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1691 |      0 (0.00000) |   1657 |      34 |      20.56 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     20.54 |   0.104
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1427 |      1 (0.00072) |   1385 |      41 |      33.70 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     25.65 |  23.894
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     1697 |      1 (0.00060) |   1663 |      33 |      66.72 |       4.19 |     7.40 |     62.52 |   6.289
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4130 |      2 (0.00049) |   4117 |      11 |     298.93 |     103.16 |     1.29 |    195.76 |  34.512
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     5931 |      8 (0.00135) |   5906 |      17 |     365.95 |     123.33 |    55.64 |    242.62 |  33.701
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     6916 |     17 (0.00248) |   6850 |      49 |    1316.72 |    1174.03 |    44.25 |    142.69 |  89.163
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     6083 |     30 (0.00494) |   6039 |      14 |     664.75 |     797.04 |    13.11 |   -132.29 | 119.901
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |     9169 |     65 (0.00709) |   9099 |       5 |    1773.18 |    1184.87 |     9.35 |    588.31 |  66.822
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    17847 |    270 (0.01513) |  17573 |       4 |    5075.12 |    5329.51 |     1.80 |   -254.39 | 105.013
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |     9031 |    212 (0.02349) |   8813 |       6 |    3258.33 |    3670.25 |    15.00 |   -411.91 | 112.642
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    17435 |    552 (0.03167) |  16880 |       3 |    3899.21 |    3437.95 |     9.24 |    461.25 |  88.171
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |     9127 |    436 (0.04781) |   8684 |       7 |    5313.00 |    6813.90 |    24.99 |  -1500.90 | 128.250
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    10406 |    645 (0.06200) |   9758 |       3 |    3585.61 |    3179.24 |    31.20 |    406.36 |  88.667
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    17205 |   1631 (0.09485) |  15565 |       9 |    9102.68 |    9262.59 |     7.01 |   -159.90 | 101.757
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    39347 |   4847 (0.12323) |  34485 |      15 |    7092.18 |    6283.95 |     0.00 |    808.23 |  88.604
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    17571 |   3337 (0.18998) |  14228 |       6 |    7149.07 |    7383.88 |    14.50 |   -234.80 | 103.284
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    48514 |  11806 (0.24339) |  36700 |       8 |   18134.74 |   19337.33 |   347.79 |  -1202.59 | 106.631
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    34886 |  12900 (0.37014) |  21952 |      34 |   15838.13 |   15832.20 |   212.63 |      5.93 |  99.963
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   341907 | 166673 (0.48770) | 175081 |     153 |  134470.80 |  135865.93 |  2173.21 |  -1395.12 | 101.037
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   141492 |  70579 (0.49913) |  70825 |      88 |   60545.43 |   58873.73 |   789.20 |   1671.70 |  97.239
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   108148 |  79546 (0.73594) |  28542 |      60 |   98663.72 |   97111.92 |   467.98 |   1551.79 |  98.427
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     2514 |   2011 (0.80024) |    502 |       1 |    6939.36 |    7160.55 |     0.00 |   -221.19 | 103.188
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     2175 |   1846 (0.84952) |    327 |       2 |    2961.91 |    2950.07 |     0.00 |     11.84 |  99.600
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |      736 |    670 (0.91530) |     62 |       4 |     436.95 |     424.04 |     0.00 |     12.91 |  97.045
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6117 |   5860 (0.97879) |    127 |     130 |    5188.65 |    4991.42 |   239.20 |    197.22 |  96.199
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |   875072 | 363945           | 510035 |    1092 |  392291.03 |  391303.27 |  4495.23 |    987.75 |  99.748
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:        987.75913595 BTC (0.252%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         440.67125000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:         547.08788595 BTC (0.139%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  2702068  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1611343  (59.6%)
Blockchain MB:  1137.0  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 662.5  (58.3%)

The follow 12 bets are pending still:

Code:

72b97a20c5cee0b9f05b5203d0361263edb41b752a15e2838ac2b3b6789f74c2   1 191241 11:31:37 Jul-28-12        32.00000000 1dice97E 1BCgHiW4jhUN1vggaeR3aSQpWhRxMLXjRg
18455d8b2020cef49579fa2f024375a43e242f4bb0c303cba526327944c65e46   0 191269 17:47:08 Jul-28-12         1.00000000 1dicegEA 14q94SKrm8W3yBzhi2BZ8xm8VJvPWcXAMG
6071357b4e24964f398de274e55c85cadaf33e1f54acaa284a7dfc23933feff3   0 191269 17:47:08 Jul-28-12         1.00000000 1dicegEA 14q94SKrm8W3yBzhi2BZ8xm8VJvPWcXAMG
802455195c92092bf863c82f77baec33e6f21fd8de2aa604826918d56e76d205   0 191343 07:15:28 Jul-29-12         0.05000000 1dice8EM 1GfDEVE4g5ghVp1e3v2Q1VqEMvG9FVVPio
555cc5382acc939178dcb81cd83172984eec99b767f78bf05389c94657d01020   1 191344 07:21:21 Jul-29-12         1.00000000 1dice8EM 1HcUSJNPJtP69ajpnUmFoU3WKDxssdNjMi
bb8d9eca3e807622e92472c4043a3573d4521c02927e563b58b8ad4a3d9d9173   1 191345 07:28:15 Jul-29-12         3.00000000 1dice8EM 1LQh4yvTW552ibohytuzLV9V8dbfieVdea
eb3ee5f086b285fa40208257b59091b065d4f1f76b240a15d965da3790baa062   1 191486 23:01:51 Jul-29-12         0.80000000 1dice97E 1FjvstaGAGyCXBMP8u2PkDk9tm1dkRhpm7
434cb9541a56d496e2d0a240f7ee75b4119317a5e32f79a71e5c5511289f1ebc   1 191486 23:01:51 Jul-29-12         0.20000000 1dice8EM 1LTMipT8ebJ1MNFRP9BdfkDYzW3RzLXoit
e7fe8ae530f9beaee6c0d8b89fb5d5aeee0a1a49a03be743e1bf796d66306c82   0 191521 04:29:24 Jul-30-12         0.20000000 1dice8EM 1ArM4VrvgiKExHYKFHwytjFusmr633ZjCU
c508831ed64c7f4ff0d261d2971e38dab61e550e445ee3eb8f476d47cea0c12c   0 191521 04:29:24 Jul-30-12         2.00000000 1dice9wc 17CzCQobrCofVnB8FYSn4suvYuT7g8Woxw
7bac881cf5bd745b944f3d1bec3934df70ef5b29a991b3ad8f6772ab853aa42a   1 191642 22:47:06 Jul-30-12         0.05000000 1dice6wB 19Jjrd4ue3uCcXYJrVwx7PhxTm4MZdC4YY
e838d3a4494e91c747a3704fd3ee0f05840c576e960bd97a5947b54a301e364a   1 191642 22:47:06 Jul-30-12         0.05000000 1dice6wB 1FoejzNLBRLQiewgyQmP3PJAipbmaScXii

[jamesg]

Ouch. 2k btc down in a week.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Aug-04 09:52am (up to block 192308)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    12726 |      0 (0.00000) |  12441 |     285 |      80.15 |       0.01 |    18.39 |     80.13 |   0.024
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1153 |      0 (0.00000) |   1083 |      70 |      17.25 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     17.25 |   0.010
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1704 |      0 (0.00000) |   1670 |      34 |      20.62 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     20.60 |   0.103
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1439 |      1 (0.00072) |   1397 |      41 |      33.96 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     25.91 |  23.711
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     1706 |      1 (0.00060) |   1672 |      33 |      66.75 |       4.19 |     7.40 |     62.55 |   6.286
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4138 |      2 (0.00048) |   4125 |      11 |     298.94 |     103.16 |     1.29 |    195.77 |  34.511
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     5939 |      8 (0.00135) |   5914 |      17 |     365.96 |     123.33 |    55.64 |    242.62 |  33.701
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     6925 |     17 (0.00247) |   6859 |      49 |    1316.73 |    1174.03 |    44.25 |    142.70 |  89.162
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     6087 |     30 (0.00494) |   6043 |      14 |     664.90 |     797.04 |    13.11 |   -132.14 | 119.874
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |     9175 |     65 (0.00709) |   9104 |       6 |    1773.29 |    1184.87 |     9.35 |    588.42 |  66.818
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    18012 |    272 (0.01510) |  17736 |       4 |    5102.75 |    5351.99 |     1.80 |   -249.24 | 104.884
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |     9041 |    212 (0.02346) |   8823 |       6 |    3258.95 |    3670.25 |    15.00 |   -411.29 | 112.620
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    17448 |    552 (0.03164) |  16893 |       3 |    3899.44 |    3437.95 |     9.24 |    461.48 |  88.165
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |     9136 |    436 (0.04776) |   8693 |       7 |    5313.08 |    6813.90 |    24.99 |  -1500.82 | 128.248
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    10430 |    646 (0.06195) |   9781 |       3 |    3588.99 |    3180.85 |    31.20 |    408.13 |  88.628
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    17269 |   1634 (0.09468) |  15625 |      10 |    9107.15 |    9268.52 |     7.01 |   -161.36 | 101.772
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    40370 |   4976 (0.12331) |  35379 |      15 |    7099.84 |    6288.93 |     0.00 |    810.90 |  88.579
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    17596 |   3340 (0.18988) |  14250 |       6 |    7171.77 |    7397.36 |    14.50 |   -225.58 | 103.145
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    48724 |  11856 (0.24337) |  36860 |       8 |   18305.17 |   19504.91 |   347.79 |  -1199.73 | 106.554
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    35007 |  12939 (0.36997) |  22034 |      34 |   15984.43 |   16012.78 |   212.63 |    -28.34 | 100.177
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   344170 | 167778 (0.48771) | 176234 |     158 |  137193.46 |  138474.46 |  2173.21 |  -1281.00 | 100.934
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   142029 |  70824 (0.49897) |  71115 |      90 |   61723.30 |   59759.11 |   789.20 |   1964.18 |  96.818
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   109057 |  80227 (0.73605) |  28769 |      61 |   99837.53 |   98332.61 |   467.98 |   1504.91 |  98.493
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     2558 |   2045 (0.80008) |    511 |       2 |    7692.46 |    7939.47 |     0.00 |   -247.01 | 103.211
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     2214 |   1879 (0.84946) |    333 |       2 |    3005.98 |    2998.72 |     0.00 |      7.25 |  99.759
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |      750 |    683 (0.91555) |     63 |       4 |     440.17 |     427.42 |     0.00 |     12.74 |  97.105
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6149 |   5892 (0.97890) |    127 |     130 |    5199.85 |    5002.66 |   239.20 |    197.19 |  96.208
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |   880952 | 366315           | 513534 |    1103 |  398562.99 |  397256.72 |  4495.23 |   1306.27 |  99.672
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       1306.27359556 BTC (0.328%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         443.62750000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:         862.64609556 BTC (0.216%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  2730069  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1622605  (59.4%)
Blockchain MB:  1148.7  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 667.0  (58.1%)

[byronbb]

Ouch. 2k btc down in a week.

Gambling with small edges is soul crushing.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Aug-06 01:45am (up to block 192544)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    12920 |      0 (0.00000) |  12630 |     290 |      81.60 |       0.01 |    18.79 |     81.58 |   0.024
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1164 |      0 (0.00000) |   1094 |      70 |      17.38 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     17.37 |   0.010
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1723 |      0 (0.00000) |   1689 |      34 |      20.66 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     20.64 |   0.103
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1467 |      1 (0.00070) |   1425 |      41 |      34.29 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     26.24 |  23.482
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     1710 |      1 (0.00060) |   1676 |      33 |      67.42 |       4.19 |     7.40 |     63.22 |   6.228
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4147 |      2 (0.00048) |   4134 |      11 |     299.18 |     103.16 |     1.29 |    196.01 |  34.484
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     5977 |      8 (0.00134) |   5952 |      17 |     451.16 |     123.74 |    55.64 |    327.42 |  27.427
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     6944 |     17 (0.00247) |   6877 |      50 |    1323.08 |    1174.05 |    44.25 |    149.02 |  88.737
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     6147 |     30 (0.00489) |   6103 |      14 |     688.51 |     797.14 |    13.11 |   -108.63 | 115.778
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |     9213 |     66 (0.00717) |   9141 |       6 |    1775.47 |    1185.00 |     9.35 |    590.47 |  66.743
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    18247 |    273 (0.01496) |  17970 |       4 |    5124.84 |    5352.24 |     1.80 |   -227.40 | 104.437
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |     9063 |    213 (0.02352) |   8844 |       6 |    3262.45 |    3674.52 |    15.00 |   -412.07 | 112.631
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    17493 |    552 (0.03156) |  16938 |       3 |    3919.64 |    3438.04 |     9.24 |    481.60 |  87.713
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |     9150 |    436 (0.04769) |   8707 |       7 |    5317.21 |    6813.92 |    24.99 |  -1496.70 | 128.148
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    10476 |    649 (0.06197) |   9824 |       3 |    3608.04 |    3262.48 |    31.20 |    345.55 |  90.423
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    17292 |   1639 (0.09484) |  15643 |      10 |    9111.90 |    9282.82 |     7.01 |   -170.91 | 101.876
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    44139 |   5438 (0.12324) |  38686 |      15 |    7143.14 |    6316.10 |     0.00 |    827.04 |  88.422
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    17640 |   3353 (0.19014) |  14281 |       6 |    7190.69 |    7437.73 |    14.50 |   -247.04 | 103.436
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    49212 |  11959 (0.24305) |  37245 |       8 |   19306.88 |   19815.59 |   347.79 |   -508.71 | 102.635
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    35078 |  12960 (0.36982) |  22084 |      34 |   16054.77 |   16016.06 |   212.63 |     38.71 |  99.759
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   349050 | 170134 (0.48764) | 178758 |     158 |  143712.97 |  145149.28 |  2173.21 |  -1436.31 | 100.999
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   143495 |  71535 (0.49883) |  71870 |      90 |   62532.13 |   60586.41 |   789.20 |   1945.71 |  96.888
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   112031 |  82414 (0.73604) |  29555 |      62 |  104296.60 |  102844.95 |   467.98 |   1451.65 |  98.608
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     2730 |   2175 (0.79729) |    553 |       2 |   10428.72 |   10516.91 |     0.00 |    -88.18 | 100.846
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     2279 |   1933 (0.84892) |    344 |       2 |    3041.60 |    3034.68 |     0.00 |      6.92 |  99.772
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |      824 |    748 (0.91220) |     72 |       4 |     497.92 |     480.05 |     0.00 |     17.86 |  96.411
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6195 |   5937 (0.97890) |    128 |     130 |    6759.11 |    6568.78 |   239.20 |    190.32 |  97.184
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |   895806 | 372473           | 522223 |    1110 |  416067.48 |  413986.07 |  4495.63 |   2081.41 |  99.500
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       2081.41050452 BTC (0.500%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         451.09597500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        1630.31452952 BTC (0.392%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  2785943  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1651311  (59.3%)
Blockchain MB:  1170.6  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 678.2  (57.9%)

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Aug-07 10:25am (up to block 192749)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    13026 |      0 (0.00000) |  12736 |     290 |      82.87 |       0.01 |    18.79 |     82.85 |   0.023
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1167 |      0 (0.00000) |   1097 |      70 |      17.49 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     17.49 |   0.010
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1729 |      0 (0.00000) |   1695 |      34 |      20.76 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     20.74 |   0.103
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1470 |      1 (0.00070) |   1428 |      41 |      34.30 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     26.24 |  23.478
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     1714 |      1 (0.00059) |   1680 |      33 |      67.45 |       4.19 |     7.40 |     63.25 |   6.225
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4154 |      2 (0.00048) |   4141 |      11 |     299.24 |     103.16 |     1.29 |    196.07 |  34.477
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     5984 |      8 (0.00134) |   5959 |      17 |     460.78 |     123.78 |    55.64 |    336.99 |  26.864
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     6948 |     17 (0.00246) |   6881 |      50 |    1323.10 |    1174.05 |    44.25 |    149.04 |  88.735
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     6150 |     30 (0.00489) |   6106 |      14 |     688.63 |     797.14 |    13.11 |   -108.51 | 115.758
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |     9225 |     66 (0.00716) |   9152 |       7 |    1775.51 |    1185.00 |     9.35 |    590.51 |  66.741
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    18323 |    274 (0.01496) |  18045 |       4 |    5134.94 |    5355.48 |     1.80 |   -220.53 | 104.295
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |     9078 |    213 (0.02348) |   8859 |       6 |    3262.56 |    3674.52 |    15.00 |   -411.95 | 112.627
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    17504 |    552 (0.03154) |  16949 |       3 |    3923.82 |    3438.06 |     9.24 |    485.76 |  87.620
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |     9163 |    436 (0.04762) |   8720 |       7 |    5318.30 |    6813.92 |    24.99 |  -1495.62 | 128.122
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    10481 |    649 (0.06194) |   9829 |       3 |    3608.17 |    3262.48 |    31.20 |    345.68 |  90.419
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    17322 |   1640 (0.09473) |  15672 |      10 |    9113.99 |    9285.49 |     7.01 |   -171.49 | 101.882
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    48414 |   5955 (0.12304) |  42444 |      15 |    7296.07 |    6389.87 |     0.00 |    906.19 |  87.580
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    17694 |   3359 (0.18990) |  14329 |       6 |    7195.07 |    7438.72 |    14.50 |   -243.65 | 103.386
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    49593 |  12050 (0.24302) |  37535 |       8 |   20577.23 |   20883.81 |   347.79 |   -306.57 | 101.490
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    35232 |  13017 (0.36982) |  22181 |      34 |   16162.38 |   16089.79 |   212.63 |     72.58 |  99.551
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   351399 | 171260 (0.48759) | 179981 |     158 |  147814.47 |  148798.10 |  2173.21 |   -983.62 | 100.665
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   144654 |  72099 (0.49874) |  72462 |      93 |   63834.05 |   61894.62 |   789.20 |   1939.42 |  96.962
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   112600 |  82835 (0.73608) |  29700 |      65 |  104631.94 |  103195.29 |   467.98 |   1436.64 |  98.627
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     3040 |   2422 (0.79750) |    615 |       3 |   11401.07 |   11592.72 |   400.00 |   -191.65 | 101.681
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     2532 |   2152 (0.85127) |    376 |       4 |    3570.83 |    3565.69 |   400.00 |      5.13 |  99.856
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |      890 |    810 (0.91422) |     76 |       4 |     565.67 |     551.34 |     0.00 |     14.33 |  97.466
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6242 |   5983 (0.97889) |    129 |     130 |    9332.45 |    9143.49 |   239.20 |    188.95 |  97.975
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |   905728 | 375831           | 528777 |    1120 |  427513.25 |  424768.94 |  5295.64 |   2744.31 |  99.358
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       2744.31743519 BTC (0.642%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         456.10755000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        2288.20988519 BTC (0.535%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  2828360  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1670696  (59.1%)
Blockchain MB:  1186.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 685.7  (57.8%)

[zvs]

I like what this guy is doing:

http://blockchain.info/address/15tcsumFPsrw2p9Egmk7wGszFJVxpw7UiD?offset=2200

note, that the 2200 is the current 'starting point', it'll probably be higher for ppl that click on this after more than a minute or two.  

it'd take some pretty incredible odds to bust out like that.  looks like initial funding was 15BTC

(*if i had that bot, i'd give that a go myself)

(ed to add that it's at 51.46 currently)