Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Aug-08 06:36pm (up to block 192949)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
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 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    13149 |      0 (0.00000) |  12859 |     290 |      83.07 |       0.01 |    18.79 |     83.05 |   0.023
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1171 |      0 (0.00000) |   1101 |      70 |      17.60 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     17.60 |   0.010
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1730 |      0 (0.00000) |   1696 |      34 |      20.76 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     20.74 |   0.103
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1476 |      1 (0.00070) |   1434 |      41 |      34.40 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     26.34 |  23.409
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     1715 |      1 (0.00059) |   1681 |      33 |      67.45 |       4.19 |     7.40 |     63.25 |   6.225
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4156 |      2 (0.00048) |   4143 |      11 |     300.84 |     103.17 |     1.29 |    197.66 |  34.296
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     5995 |      8 (0.00134) |   5970 |      17 |     468.34 |     123.82 |    55.64 |    344.52 |  26.438
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     6979 |     17 (0.00245) |   6912 |      50 |    1324.63 |    1174.06 |    44.25 |    150.56 |  88.633
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     6159 |     30 (0.00488) |   6115 |      14 |     690.19 |     797.15 |    13.11 |   -106.95 | 115.497
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |     9251 |     67 (0.00725) |   9177 |       7 |    1779.82 |    1185.14 |     9.35 |    594.68 |  66.588
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    18493 |    277 (0.01498) |  18212 |       4 |    5189.58 |    5420.17 |     1.80 |   -230.59 | 104.443
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |     9083 |    213 (0.02347) |   8864 |       6 |    3262.74 |    3674.52 |    15.00 |   -411.77 | 112.621
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    17517 |    553 (0.03157) |  16961 |       3 |    3926.09 |    3438.71 |     9.24 |    487.38 |  87.586
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |     9171 |    436 (0.04758) |   8728 |       7 |    5319.25 |    6813.92 |    24.99 |  -1494.67 | 128.099
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    10492 |    651 (0.06207) |   9838 |       3 |    3608.59 |    3263.60 |    31.20 |    344.98 |  90.440
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    17343 |   1641 (0.09467) |  15692 |      10 |    9115.34 |    9286.02 |     7.01 |   -170.68 | 101.872
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    52728 |   6496 (0.12324) |  46216 |      16 |    7381.08 |    6498.92 |     0.00 |    882.16 |  88.048
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    17715 |   3362 (0.18985) |  14347 |       6 |    7195.82 |    7439.00 |    14.50 |   -243.17 | 103.379
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    49730 |  12079 (0.24293) |  37643 |       8 |   20580.97 |   20886.13 |   347.79 |   -305.16 | 101.483
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    35323 |  13045 (0.36966) |  22244 |      34 |   16168.38 |   16096.02 |   212.63 |     72.35 |  99.553
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   355781 | 173417 (0.48764) | 182205 |     159 |  149956.85 |  150937.67 |  2173.21 |   -980.82 | 100.654
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   145954 |  72752 (0.49878) |  73109 |      93 |   65012.04 |   63191.38 |   789.20 |   1820.65 |  97.200
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   113801 |  83715 (0.73605) |  30021 |      65 |  105920.36 |  104439.85 |   467.98 |   1480.50 |  98.602
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     3326 |   2638 (0.79386) |    685 |       3 |   11836.88 |   11995.66 |   400.00 |   -158.77 | 101.341
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     2638 |   2232 (0.84770) |    401 |       5 |    3971.97 |    3976.34 |   400.00 |     -4.36 | 100.110
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     1006 |    915 (0.91317) |     87 |       4 |     779.16 |     765.95 |     0.00 |     13.21 |  98.304
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6296 |   6037 (0.97908) |    129 |     130 |   11012.15 |   10830.59 |   239.20 |    181.55 |  98.351
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                                |   918178 | 380585           | 536470 |    1123 |  435024.47 |  432350.19 |  5295.64 |   2674.28 |  99.385
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SD Profit before fees:       2674.28017103 BTC (0.615%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         462.35527500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        2211.92489603 BTC (0.508%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  2873560  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1694871  (59.0%)
Blockchain MB:  1204.5  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 694.8  (57.7%)

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[mrvision]

Can your script count how often satoshidice gives 1x Lose in a row, 2x Lose in a row, 3x Lose in a row... and so on, in order to know if a martingale scheeme would be aplicable?

[midnightlightning]

I see there's never been a "less than 1" winner (magic number of zero); could you check and see if there's ever been a magic number that came up zero (a bet in another category that could have won big if it had been bet on less than 1)?

[zvs]

I see there's never been a "less than 1" winner (magic number of zero); could you check and see if there's ever been a magic number that came up zero (a bet in another category that could have won big if it had been bet on less than 1)?

I check the latest bets and what not semi-frequently and have never seen a '0'.  I have seen at least two 1's

[dooglus]

Can your script count how often satoshidice gives 1x Lose in a row, 2x Lose in a row, 3x Lose in a row... and so on, in order to know if a martingale scheeme would be aplicable?

That's kind of tricky.  Because you mean "3 times in a row for the same player" I expect.  But I can't tell which bets are from which players, since some people use a different address each time they bet.  I also can't tell for sure what order the bets were placed in - all I see is which block they are in.

One thing I can tell you for sure though is that the martingale scheme is never applicable for any game where the odds are in the house's favour...  All martingale betting will do is change the odds so that instead of having a large (1 in 2) chance of losing a little ($1), you have a little (1 in 2048) chance of losing a lot ($1024).

Also, we know the exact odds for each of the SatoshiDice bets, and so can work out how often we get N losses in a row:

For the "under X" game, where X is a number between 1 and 64000, the probability of winning an individual bet is X/65536.

So the probability of losing an individual bet is (65536-X)/65536.

And so the probability of losing N bets in a row is ((65536-X)/65536)^N.


To give a concrete example, the probability of losing 3 times in a row (N=3) when betting 'under 32000' (X=32000) is:

   ((65536-X)/65536)^N
= ((65536-32000)/65536)^3
= 0.134

that's about 1 in 7.46287 times.


Another example: the probabiliy of losing 3 times in a row (N=3) when betting 'under 32768' (X=32768) is:

   ((65536-X)/65536)^N
= ((65536-32768)/65536)^3
= 0.125

that's exactly 1 in 8 times.  Which is what you would expect; 'under 32768' is exactly a 50/50 bet, so there's 8 possible outcomes when you play 3 times, and only 1 of those 8 is "lose, lose, lose".

[dooglus]

I see there's never been a "less than 1" winner (magic number of zero); could you check and see if there's ever been a magic number that came up zero (a bet in another category that could have won big if it had been bet on less than 1)?

That's non-trivial to check, but I'll give it a go.  The magic numbers aren't stored in the blockchain, so I'll need to grab a copy of the daily secrets from SD's site and calculate the lucky number for each bet.  I'll report back when I've done it.

[dooglus]

My Internet was cut off suddenly a few days ago.  I'm back online at least part of the time now, so here it is...

Results: 2012-Aug-14 11:59am (up to block 193899)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    13695 |      0 (0.00000) |  13400 |     295 |      85.54 |       0.01 |    20.81 |     85.52 |   0.023
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1203 |      0 (0.00000) |   1133 |      70 |      18.35 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     18.35 |   0.010
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1775 |      0 (0.00000) |   1741 |      34 |      21.78 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     21.76 |   0.100
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1820 |      1 (0.00056) |   1778 |      41 |      37.99 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     29.94 |  21.199
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2010 |      1 (0.00051) |   1975 |      34 |      71.08 |       4.20 |     7.40 |     66.88 |   5.914
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4522 |      2 (0.00044) |   4509 |      11 |     345.02 |     103.35 |     1.29 |    241.67 |  29.955
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     6383 |      8 (0.00126) |   6358 |      17 |     477.26 |     123.82 |    55.64 |    353.43 |  25.945
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     7767 |     18 (0.00233) |   7699 |      50 |    1375.20 |    1224.04 |    44.25 |    151.16 |  89.008
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     7136 |     38 (0.00534) |   7084 |      14 |     792.68 |     949.70 |    13.11 |   -157.02 | 119.810
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    10298 |     77 (0.00748) |  10214 |       7 |    1876.53 |    1276.43 |     9.35 |    600.09 |  68.021
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    19983 |    301 (0.01507) |  19677 |       5 |    5368.64 |    5554.03 |     1.80 |   -185.39 | 103.453
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    10069 |    237 (0.02355) |   9826 |       6 |    3372.00 |    3781.72 |    15.00 |   -409.72 | 112.151
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    18787 |    593 (0.03157) |  18191 |       3 |    4168.11 |    3606.48 |     9.24 |    561.63 |  86.525
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    10457 |    494 (0.04727) |   9956 |       7 |    5528.48 |    7013.31 |    24.99 |  -1484.83 | 126.858
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    12237 |    766 (0.06261) |  11468 |       3 |    3806.96 |    3452.39 |    31.20 |    354.56 |  90.686
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    17876 |   1686 (0.09437) |  16180 |      10 |    9217.35 |    9378.37 |     7.01 |   -161.02 | 101.747
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    66910 |   8200 (0.12258) |  58694 |      16 |    7800.94 |    6889.62 |     0.00 |    911.31 |  88.318
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    17960 |   3394 (0.18905) |  14559 |       7 |    7377.97 |    7502.93 |    14.50 |   -124.96 | 101.694
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    50663 |  12294 (0.24270) |  38361 |       8 |   20807.22 |   21054.65 |   347.79 |   -247.42 | 101.189
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    36267 |  13386 (0.36944) |  22847 |      34 |   16767.77 |   16762.60 |   212.63 |      5.16 |  99.969
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   371308 | 181021 (0.48774) | 190125 |     162 |  162822.30 |  164030.82 |  2173.21 |  -1208.51 | 100.742
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   150041 |  74722 (0.49832) |  75225 |      94 |   70265.59 |   68443.91 |   789.20 |   1821.68 |  97.407
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   121186 |  89165 (0.73618) |  31954 |      67 |  112702.31 |  110919.59 |   467.98 |   1782.72 |  98.418
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     5831 |   4645 (0.79701) |   1183 |       3 |   15841.95 |   15732.04 |   400.00 |    109.91 |  99.306
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     4101 |   3513 (0.85767) |    583 |       5 |    4937.68 |    4907.82 |   400.00 |     29.85 |  99.395
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     1799 |   1652 (0.92033) |    143 |       4 |    2390.68 |    2383.98 |     0.00 |      6.70 |  99.720
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6477 |   6216 (0.97936) |    131 |     130 |   14701.69 |   14424.53 |   239.20 |    277.16 |  98.115
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |   978561 | 402430           | 574994 |    1137 |  472979.21 |  469528.56 |  5297.66 |   3450.65 |  99.270
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       3450.65317360 BTC (0.730%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         492.73067500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        2957.92249860 BTC (0.625%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3080464  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1803823  (58.6%)
Blockchain MB:  1286.1  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 737.9  (57.4%)

[dooglus]

I see there's never been a "less than 1" winner (magic number of zero); could you check and see if there's ever been a magic number that came up zero (a bet in another category that could have won big if it had been bet on less than 1)?

That's non-trivial to check, but I'll give it a go.  The magic numbers aren't stored in the blockchain, so I'll need to grab a copy of the daily secrets from SD's site and calculate the lucky number for each bet.  I'll report back when I've done it.

There's an added complication in that SD uses whatever secret is valid for the date they first see your bet, but I don't know when they saw each bet.  All I know is the timestamp on the block which contains the bet, which might be different, and so I may be using a different secret than SD are using.

Given that, here are the bets with magic number 0 that I've found (and also those with magic number 65535).  Check out the scary animated gif on the 0 pages!  

    0 2012.05.20 00:38:47 91eebe57e96563a62e8cfdba4b8262da5ddaf427dd164dd06ecbdce4ba5923ce
    0 2012.06.04 12:31:47 d935b75ad8dedd05d9962affb9b42cd710b4804bc5717025959fdb7932f8e20b
    0 2012.06.04 21:48:09 d2c7accaab92feabfa75d11b47518170956ead2800b373fe99089e3f973baa32
    0 2012.06.11 04:50:40 047bb988b484ece0f5b8165b1b1ffd66af33f23e49eab7521d869a23b2d03e9a
    0 2012.06.21 04:18:40 d2d774835facecd3256421af1a02f4a3413e7f1a9cd2e0fea6a45477bcd4e697
    0 2012.06.30 20:40:28 3b449844a6ecc55f480b36d12a2ad694924dacea2b012dc1a331494762352a49
    0 2012.07.15 04:54:38 5599e3ee15946b0fad1c499322cf42b5dd584eed8c8b2f4fb7dccbbc1aed3a94
    0 2012.07.16 03:56:35 365488ebd12a94600d2026290dfd0b80975c20ede652524d536836e67be8f131
    0 2012.07.30 23:28:27 e87613114d452943bff4a6bde35e7159f0c3b5ab358248b2766635eabc34457f
    0 2012.08.08 08:28:43 00364704781c5f09c0642831198852fa717b5268b3a2134cf834da551201577d

65535 2012.05.09 01:42:46 56900c43043f3557273c34de529fa94bfcacb68ee56d876fe2a4600cece9d3ae
65535 2012.05.12 21:45:03 eae73ae1e8aaa2a94d34d63997c6a2df6c0b20eb0b696f6f64e1bd35d4bb76ad
65535 2012.05.29 12:22:08 7a1e02a2f93fb613a69b6b9fa32ea4cf8297b2a815dce0d23faf7597488e1024
65535 2012.06.03 01:28:13 0e323744468226bfae02ba45020ba6923ea671e0546e297dcec42fe197b46d20
65535 2012.06.15 10:21:40 40c751bc56c280652a960c3e81037c5207dd9890d5fdf2cfda2b2d16b7144471
65535 2012.07.07 02:10:24 d192c983630efb1fe37be0a0a281d9a22322f7b4e76715566d2a972c4659d46b
65535 2012.08.06 11:49:15 dbcdaa7c9bb9e1143e15b0a3e8b442b5733304175798bab54980ae38a272e673
65535 2012.08.06 21:52:08 8d4dce5a18434c55d4644f3788ed0ba66ab22cee74097a6aedf42a30376f3617
65535 2012.08.09 13:45:29 10eb3bbb3245d9f05801a0410b3ee31bf419ff5cfa4672ba59398d9e40012434
65535 2012.08.11 14:59:23 749cd255c67810a8d5f242639db65ad1fe4f6772f113ade00071d3e52cb53219

Some random facts, taken from the 817734 rolls I analysed.  Bear in mind that it may be slightly wrong since I can't be sure what date SD considers bets to have happened on:

All 65536 different lucky numbers have come up at least once each.
817734 / 65536 is about 12.5.  An averagely lucky number will have come up 12 or 13 times so far.
14777 is the luckiest number - it has come up 31 times.
62143 is 2nd luckiest - it has come up 30 times.
10470, 17257, and 26725 have come up 29 times each.

2436, 23243, and 60872 have each only come up once each.
14 different numbers have only come up twice each.
84 different numbers have only come up thrice each.

Number 0 has come up 10 times, as has 65535.
1 has come up 16 times.
2 and 3 have come up 7 times each.
4 has come up 11 times.
5 has come up 8 times.
6 has come up 21 times.
7 has come up 10 times.
8 has come up 16 times.
9 and 10 have come up 13 times each.  And so have 15, 18, 28, 29, 37, and many many more.

Enough trivial stats?  

[mrvision]

Can your script count how often satoshidice gives 1x Lose in a row, 2x Lose in a row, 3x Lose in a row... and so on, in order to know if a martingale scheeme would be aplicable?

That's kind of tricky.  Because you mean "3 times in a row for the same player" I expect.  But I can't tell which bets are from which players, since some people use a different address each time they bet.  I also can't tell for sure what order the bets were placed in - all I see is which block they are in.

One thing I can tell you for sure though is that the martingale scheme is never applicable for any game where the odds are in the house's favour...  All martingale betting will do is change the odds so that instead of having a large (1 in 2) chance of losing a little ($1), you have a little (1 in 2048) chance of losing a lot ($1024).

Also, we know the exact odds for each of the SatoshiDice bets, and so can work out how often we get N losses in a row:

For the "under X" game, where X is a number between 1 and 64000, the probability of winning an individual bet is X/65536.

So the probability of losing an individual bet is (65536-X)/65536.

And so the probability of losing N bets in a row is ((65536-X)/65536)^N.


To give a concrete example, the probability of losing 3 times in a row (N=3) when betting 'under 32000' (X=32000) is:

   ((65536-X)/65536)^N
= ((65536-32000)/65536)^3
= 0.134

that's about 1 in 7.46287 times.


Another example: the probabiliy of losing 3 times in a row (N=3) when betting 'under 32768' (X=32768) is:

   ((65536-X)/65536)^N
= ((65536-32768)/65536)^3
= 0.125

that's exactly 1 in 8 times.  Which is what you would expect; 'under 32768' is exactly a 50/50 bet, so there's 8 possible outcomes when you play 3 times, and only 1 of those 8 is "lose, lose, lose".

Wow.. thanks!!! by the way.. yesterday i saw satoshidice giving the same lucky number 3 times in a row to the same bitcoinaddress for diferent amounts (some of them losing because they were diferent bets) that made me forget the martingale thing.

Thanks anyway for the info!

[nibor]

dooglus - what proportion of bets are over 4? Just interested to know if they are taking a lot of large bets or not.

[midnightlightning]

Enough trivial stats?  

Gratzi! That's definitely a great amount of trivial stats.

[byronbb]

I take it the dashed line on the graph is proportional to bet volume?

[dooglus]

Wow.. thanks!!! by the way.. yesterday i saw satoshidice giving the same lucky number 3 times in a row to the same bitcoinaddress for diferent amounts (some of them losing because they were diferent bets) that made me forget the martingale thing.

Thanks anyway for the info!

You're welcome.

The "lucky number" is determined from just 2 things: the transaction ID and the day's "secret".  You're allowed to put multiple bets in a single transaction, and they will all get the same lucky number.  That's probably what you saw.

Here's an example: http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=0f871a7bce540016cdf13e8ee0a4f92d433ee68013f9e77787590e12a2342712 - it's 6 bets all in the same transaction, so they all get the same (losing) lucky number.  Notice how the 'Bet Tx' field is the same for all 6 bets.  You can see the bet at blockchain.info here: http://blockchain.info/tx-index/15859914

If you make your martingale bets one at a time then you're unlikely (1 in 65536 chance) to get the same number on any pair of bets.  You wouldn't ever make your bets in the same transaction, since you need to see whether the first one wins before being able to decide whether the 2nd bet needs making or not.

What some people seem to do is run multiple martingales at once, for different odds.  Then you can place multiple bets in the same transaction.  But like I say, martingale is not a winning strategy, long term.

[dooglus]

dooglus - what proportion of bets are over 4? Just interested to know if they are taking a lot of large bets or not.

I'll add that information to the daily report in future.

[dooglus]

I take it the dashed line on the graph is proportional to bet volume?

Right.  It's the amount of profit they 'should' have made if they were really making 1% or 1.5% on turnover.  i.e. it's where the black (total profit) line should be.  When the dotted line gets steeper, it means the site is taking a larger volume of bets.  The dotted line is after fees have been paid, which is why multiplying the lower dotted line's height by 100 gets a little less than the total amount wagered so far.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Aug-15 01:54pm (up to block 194077)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    13767 |      0 (0.00000) |  13470 |     297 |      86.00 |       0.01 |    20.93 |     85.98 |   0.022
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1232 |      0 (0.00000) |   1162 |      70 |      18.49 |       0.00 |     5.58 |     18.48 |   0.010
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1806 |      0 (0.00000) |   1772 |      34 |      21.97 |       0.02 |     2.22 |     21.95 |   0.099
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1870 |      1 (0.00055) |   1828 |      41 |      38.46 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     30.40 |  20.942
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2086 |      1 (0.00049) |   2051 |      34 |      74.67 |       4.20 |     7.40 |     70.47 |   5.630
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4636 |      2 (0.00043) |   4623 |      11 |     349.33 |     103.35 |     1.29 |    245.98 |  29.585
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     6652 |      8 (0.00121) |   6627 |      17 |     532.49 |     124.01 |    55.64 |    408.48 |  23.289
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     8257 |     19 (0.00232) |   8188 |      50 |    1484.32 |    1274.35 |    44.25 |    209.96 |  85.854
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     8370 |     40 (0.00479) |   8316 |      14 |    1136.96 |    1025.85 |    13.11 |    111.11 |  90.227
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    11528 |     85 (0.00738) |  11436 |       7 |    2294.17 |    1671.54 |     9.35 |    622.62 |  72.861
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    21627 |    320 (0.01480) |  21302 |       5 |    6281.63 |    6065.20 |     1.80 |    216.42 |  96.555
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    11793 |    267 (0.02265) |  11520 |       6 |    4334.01 |    4526.10 |    15.00 |   -192.09 | 104.432
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    20631 |    646 (0.03132) |  19982 |       3 |    5188.91 |    4389.37 |     9.24 |    799.54 |  84.591
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    12747 |    600 (0.04710) |  12140 |       7 |    6326.73 |    7724.09 |    24.99 |  -1397.35 | 122.087
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    13434 |    835 (0.06217) |  12596 |       3 |    4367.83 |    3843.76 |    31.20 |    524.06 |  88.002
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    18020 |   1697 (0.09423) |  16313 |      10 |    9252.89 |    9416.86 |     7.01 |   -163.97 | 101.772
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    68533 |   8403 (0.12264) |  60112 |      18 |    7911.10 |    6980.93 |     0.00 |    930.17 |  88.242
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    18045 |   3411 (0.18910) |  14627 |       7 |    7383.09 |    7506.91 |    14.50 |   -123.82 | 101.677
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    51474 |  12504 (0.24296) |  38961 |       9 |   20905.77 |   21143.16 |   347.79 |   -237.39 | 101.136
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    36614 |  13509 (0.36930) |  23071 |      34 |   16862.29 |   16885.27 |   212.63 |    -22.97 | 100.136
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   376865 | 183740 (0.48776) | 192962 |     163 |  173820.15 |  174926.77 |  2173.21 |  -1106.62 | 100.637
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   150979 |  75183 (0.49828) |  75702 |      94 |   71594.39 |   69647.51 |   789.20 |   1946.87 |  97.281
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   122049 |  89807 (0.73623) |  32175 |      67 |  112920.13 |  111140.52 |   467.98 |   1779.60 |  98.424
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     6048 |   4813 (0.79620) |   1232 |       3 |   15896.79 |   15787.63 |   400.00 |    109.16 |  99.313
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     4216 |   3606 (0.85633) |    605 |       5 |    4973.89 |    4944.18 |   400.00 |     29.71 |  99.403
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     1850 |   1697 (0.91928) |    149 |       4 |    2402.78 |    2392.64 |     0.00 |     10.13 |  99.578
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6511 |   6250 (0.97947) |    131 |     130 |   14731.06 |   14454.00 |   239.20 |    277.05 |  98.119
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |   974713 | 393885           | 579891 |     937 |  218603.01 |  212010.72 |   135.42 |   6592.29 |  96.984
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    26927 |  13559           |  13162 |     206 |  272587.40 |  273975.71 |  5162.35 |  -1388.30 | 100.509
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1001640 | 407444           | 593053 |    1143 |  491190.41 |  485986.43 |  5297.78 |   5203.98 |  98.941
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       5203.98136731 BTC (1.059%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         504.36495000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        4699.61641731 BTC (0.957%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3134755  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1840187  (58.7%)
Blockchain MB:  1309.0  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 752.7  (57.5%)

[dooglus]

That's a huge sudden profit for SD in the last 24h.  Most of the gains were made in blocks 194014 (500 BTC) and 194015 (1100 BTC).

It turns out these losses weren't the result of martingale betting.  It looks like it was someone just betting over and over on the high-reward bets, and losing every time.

The bets were:

     30 * 1 BTC on 'lessthan  128'       30

    127 * 1 BTC on 'lessthan  256'      127

    136 * 1 BTC on 'lessthan  512'      136

     22 * 1 BTC on 'lessthan 1000'       22
     20 * 2 BTC on 'lessthan 1000'       40
     20 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 1000'       60
     50 * 5 BTC on 'lessthan 1000'      250

     20 * 2 BTC on 'lessthan 1500'       40
     20 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 1500'       60
     50 * 5 BTC on 'lessthan 1500'      250

     20 * 2 BTC on 'lessthan 2000'       40
     20 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 2000'       60
     50 * 5 BTC on 'lessthan 2000'      250

     40 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 3000'      120

     40 * 3 BTC on 'lessthan 4000'      120
                                       ----
                                       1605



That's pretty unlucky not to have won a single one of those bets.  But most of them were multi-bet transactions, so it's not as unlucky as it looks at first glance.

[dooglus]

Results: 2012-Aug-16 08:40am (up to block 194199)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    14001 |      0 (0.00000) |  13703 |     298 |      90.34 |       0.01 |    21.03 |     90.32 |   0.021
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1247 |      0 (0.00000) |   1176 |      71 |      19.02 |       0.00 |     6.58 |     19.02 |   0.009
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1813 |      0 (0.00000) |   1778 |      35 |      21.98 |       0.02 |     3.22 |     21.96 |   0.099
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1944 |      1 (0.00053) |   1902 |      41 |      43.71 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     35.66 |  18.425
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2102 |      1 (0.00048) |   2067 |      34 |      74.70 |       4.20 |     7.40 |     70.50 |   5.628
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4703 |      2 (0.00043) |   4690 |      11 |     350.22 |     103.35 |     1.29 |    246.87 |  29.510
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     6832 |      8 (0.00117) |   6807 |      17 |     582.14 |     124.18 |    55.64 |    457.95 |  21.333
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     8443 |     19 (0.00226) |   8374 |      50 |    1526.18 |    1274.47 |    44.25 |    251.70 |  83.508
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     8591 |     41 (0.00478) |   8536 |      14 |    1201.70 |    1275.93 |    13.11 |    -74.23 | 106.178
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    11753 |     87 (0.00741) |  11659 |       7 |    2339.09 |    1713.53 |     9.35 |    625.56 |  73.256
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    22007 |    325 (0.01477) |  21677 |       5 |    6660.96 |    6304.23 |     1.80 |    356.73 |  94.644
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    12067 |    273 (0.02263) |  11788 |       6 |    4480.77 |    4630.69 |    15.00 |   -149.91 | 103.346
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    20956 |    654 (0.03121) |  20299 |       3 |    5293.61 |    4469.73 |     9.24 |    823.88 |  84.436
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    13383 |    624 (0.04665) |  12752 |       7 |    6577.59 |    7889.58 |    24.99 |  -1311.98 | 119.946
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    13668 |    846 (0.06191) |  12819 |       3 |    4438.34 |    3884.01 |    31.20 |    554.33 |  87.510
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    18097 |   1703 (0.09416) |  16384 |      10 |    9259.66 |    9418.58 |     7.01 |   -158.91 | 101.716
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    68745 |   8430 (0.12266) |  60296 |      19 |    7995.12 |    7048.83 |     0.00 |    946.28 |  88.164
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    18136 |   3423 (0.18881) |  14706 |       7 |    7442.66 |    7539.43 |    14.50 |    -96.77 | 101.300
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    51964 |  12616 (0.24283) |  39339 |       9 |   21648.33 |   21735.03 |   347.79 |    -86.70 | 100.400
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    37005 |  13649 (0.36918) |  23322 |      34 |   17099.11 |   17104.92 |   212.63 |     -5.80 | 100.034
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   380294 | 185414 (0.48776) | 194716 |     164 |  181133.12 |  181912.34 |  2173.21 |   -779.21 | 100.430
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   151604 |  75494 (0.49828) |  76016 |      94 |   72592.37 |   70533.07 |   789.20 |   2059.30 |  97.163
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   122763 |  90343 (0.73632) |  32353 |      67 |  113534.83 |  111752.77 |   467.98 |   1782.06 |  98.430
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     6260 |   4975 (0.79511) |   1282 |       3 |   15971.22 |   15857.82 |   400.00 |    113.40 |  99.290
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     4314 |   3683 (0.85472) |    626 |       5 |    5023.10 |    4966.05 |   400.00 |     57.05 |  98.864
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     1943 |   1781 (0.91851) |    158 |       4 |    2427.97 |    2416.70 |     0.00 |     11.26 |  99.536
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6541 |   6280 (0.97957) |    131 |     130 |   14791.13 |   14514.32 |   239.20 |    276.80 |  98.129
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |   983501 | 396786           | 585773 |     942 |  221950.97 |  215282.53 |   137.52 |   6668.44 |  96.996
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    27675 |  13886           |  13583 |     206 |  280668.14 |  281199.44 |  5162.35 |   -531.30 | 100.189
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  1011176 | 410672           | 599356 |    1148 |  502619.12 |  496481.97 |  5299.88 |   6137.14 |  98.779
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:       6137.14137015 BTC (1.221%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         509.24547500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        5627.89589515 BTC (1.120%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3171335  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1857147  (58.6%)
Blockchain MB:  1324.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 760.4  (57.4%)

[nibor]

So over half their turnover comes from the >4 BTC bets even though they are only 2% of the bets by volume.

Now you know why Las Vegas give away suites to high rollers! There are not many of them but they spend a lot!

[dooglus]

And the high-rollers have just become profitable for SD overall too.  At last!

Results: 2012-Aug-17 12:40pm (up to block 194362)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |       Win        |  Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |    14194 |      0 (0.00000) |  13895 |     299 |      92.30 |       0.01 |    21.13 |     92.28 |   0.021
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     1253 |      0 (0.00000) |   1182 |      71 |      19.03 |       0.00 |     6.58 |     19.02 |   0.009
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     1819 |      0 (0.00000) |   1784 |      35 |      21.99 |       0.02 |     3.22 |     21.97 |   0.099
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |     1951 |      1 (0.00052) |   1909 |      41 |      43.72 |       8.05 |     4.15 |     35.66 |  18.422
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |     2121 |      1 (0.00048) |   2086 |      34 |      76.91 |       4.20 |     7.40 |     72.70 |   5.473
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |     4739 |      2 (0.00042) |   4726 |      11 |     354.46 |     103.37 |     1.29 |    251.09 |  29.163
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |     6852 |      8 (0.00117) |   6827 |      17 |     583.06 |     124.19 |    55.64 |    458.87 |  21.300
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |     8521 |     19 (0.00224) |   8452 |      50 |    1527.24 |    1274.48 |    44.25 |    252.76 |  83.450
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |     8607 |     41 (0.00477) |   8552 |      14 |    1204.01 |    1275.94 |    13.11 |    -71.93 | 105.975
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    11773 |     88 (0.00748) |  11678 |       7 |    2342.02 |    1726.04 |     9.35 |    615.98 |  73.698
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |    22205 |    329 (0.01482) |  21871 |       5 |    6776.15 |    6419.93 |     1.80 |    356.21 |  94.743
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    12122 |    275 (0.02270) |  11841 |       6 |    4494.47 |    4660.58 |    15.00 |   -166.10 | 103.696
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    21004 |    655 (0.03119) |  20346 |       3 |    5306.96 |    4470.09 |     9.24 |    836.86 |  84.231
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    13515 |    630 (0.04664) |  12878 |       7 |    6597.34 |    7928.44 |    24.99 |  -1331.10 | 120.176
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    13753 |    850 (0.06182) |  12900 |       3 |    4450.61 |    3920.99 |    31.20 |    529.62 |  88.100
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    18147 |   1705 (0.09401) |  16432 |      10 |    9304.31 |    9424.24 |     7.01 |   -119.93 | 101.289
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |    68990 |   8459 (0.12265) |  60510 |      21 |    8021.63 |    7070.93 |     0.00 |    950.69 |  88.148
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    18258 |   3443 (0.18865) |  14808 |       7 |    7464.88 |    7552.92 |    14.50 |    -88.04 | 101.180
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |    52747 |  12829 (0.24326) |  39909 |       9 |   21826.31 |   21844.82 |   347.79 |    -18.50 | 100.085
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |    38108 |  14049 (0.36899) |  24025 |      34 |   17319.64 |   17316.47 |   212.63 |      3.17 |  99.982
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |   384457 | 187450 (0.48778) | 196843 |     164 |  189652.06 |  189891.62 |  2173.21 |   -239.55 | 100.126
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   152225 |  75814 (0.49835) |  76317 |      94 |   73992.29 |   71588.42 |   789.20 |   2403.86 |  96.751
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   123869 |  91162 (0.73635) |  32640 |      67 |  114855.39 |  113037.02 |   467.98 |   1818.37 |  98.417
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |     6383 |   5067 (0.79420) |   1313 |       3 |   16059.90 |   15937.90 |   400.00 |    121.99 |  99.240
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |     4403 |   3753 (0.85334) |    645 |       5 |    5076.25 |    5016.67 |   400.00 |     59.57 |  98.826
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |     1958 |   1792 (0.91709) |    162 |       4 |    2434.22 |    2422.47 |     0.00 |     11.74 |  99.517
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |     6580 |   6318 (0.97953) |    132 |     130 |   14827.96 |   14549.17 |   239.20 |    278.79 |  98.120
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           small (bets < 4 BTC) |   991936 | 400406           | 590585 |     945 |  225993.10 |  219336.64 |   137.62 |   6656.46 |  97.055
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |    28618 |  14334           |  14078 |     206 |  288732.12 |  288232.47 |  5162.35 |    499.65 |  99.827
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                                |  1020554 | 414740           | 604663 |    1151 |  514725.23 |  507569.11 |  5299.98 |   7156.12 |  98.610
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SD Profit before fees:       7156.12069321 BTC (1.390%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:         513.97065000 BTC
SD Profit after fees:        6642.15004321 BTC (1.290%)
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Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx:  3220351  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 1875174  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:  1343.9  :  SatoshiDice Tx: 767.6  (57.1%)