Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[humanitee]

I hope you stocked up on some coin for the run this week, rpietilla. 

$85 by wednesday!

$100 by Friday!
(This would blow 3/4's of my mind. 1/4 of it kinda expects it after the last few weeks and continual erosion of the asks.)

[1714158891]

1714158891

[1714158891]

1714158891

[1714158891]

1714158891

[Piper67]

Now I'm thoroughly convinced they are grade A morons.

Haha. I often say: "Most people are fucking stupid".

I thought you were just of the random dudes that spat out a negative opinion, but you actually had knowledge to back it up, good on you!

You know the stupid sayings when a soccer team loses 1-2 for instance and one supporter says to the next, haha - I knew your team would lose, how fucking stupid are you! I don't condone that kind of sillyness.

However, at the moment, you're right in everything you say. But at the same time, some people will always not go for the best bargains. You will find people go on saturday evenings to buy expensive pizza on a gas station, while they could've bought it for almost half the price during the week in a normal super market. That's also pretty stupid, but people still do it.

Many people buying bitcoins now actually have more faith than most current forum members. They dont care shit about price. Bitstamp was hitting $77 last thursday. If I had had money and the volume were there (both negative) I would have bought also. Who knows if the price will dip and how much it will dip, and if the lag allows to trade etc.? I would have never suspected a ->50 shakeout would happen, at the max I would have been able to buy at $65 average rate during the weekend. Who cares really. The outcomes are BTC>1000 and BTC<100 in a few years. The first is a success, the second is a fail. There is no middle ground.

Well, I fail to grasp what exatly makes people sell at $50 but I am sure they had their reasons. Margin call could be one.

Over 10k or under 100, but otherwise agree completely.

[rpietila]

Many people buying bitcoins now actually have more faith than most current forum members. They dont care shit about price. Bitstamp was hitting $77 last thursday. If I had had money and the volume were there (both negative) I would have bought also. Who knows if the price will dip and how much it will dip, and if the lag allows to trade etc.? I would have never suspected a ->50 shakeout would happen, at the max I would have been able to buy at $65 average rate during the weekend. Who cares really. The outcomes are BTC>1000 and BTC<100 in a few years. The first is a success, the second is a fail. There is no middle ground.

Well, I fail to grasp what exatly makes people sell at $50 but I am sure they had their reasons. Margin call could be one.

I more than agree with you.

Good point about margin calls, I can't blame people for that.

However, if someone sold at the low $50's thinking they'd be Captain Slick and get back in somewhere below that, they are (as I'm sure they're aware at this point) foolish.
Every metric by which you can measure Bitcoin points towards an increase in price.

In response to your opening statement, see proudhon. In fact I just ignored him, and it made me rather sad. I'm convinced he's doing nothing but trolling these days.

I love the bears, but when you can't even provide data or any argument for your position you are simply trolling.

I hope you stocked up on some coin for the run this week, rpietilla.  

You know what is the most LOL thing in this bitcoin daytrading... you cannot get the USD out of the exchange!

So basically in every panic, people sell, then they start to wonder how to get the value out - as a verified customer of MtG, I can withdraw up to $50,000 per month. MONTH! Srsly, lol, the only way I can get money out from there is to buy the bitcoins back and figure out something else. So most sellers end up buying back for this reason among others. Their selling does not relieve the pressure at all! Wonder how many bears are chewing their nails with money sitting in the Gox, unable to cash out, still in delusion of $30 prices unwilling to buy in...

Meanwhile $100 millions of new money is going in at the rate of processing kyc checks.

Price is a function of supply and demand. Guessing the direction has never been easier.

[molecular]

New walls at 73 and 75. I look forward to a time when there is enough money on the market the the wall makers will be too fearful to do this crap anymore.

Actually the walls serve an economic purpose of transferring big amounts of BTC from weak (overallocation in BTC) to strong (new entrants) hands. If all the BTC would be sold to small investors only, the market would develop in a nonsolid way. There needs to be old world big money buying large stashes of BTC and this is what the walls are for.

Translation from finnish: nomnomnom tasty big walls nomnom wait 'till my fiat clears nomnom.

[rpietila]

New walls at 73 and 75. I look forward to a time when there is enough money on the market the the wall makers will be too fearful to do this crap anymore.

Actually the walls serve an economic purpose of transferring big amounts of BTC from weak (overallocation in BTC) to strong (new entrants) hands. If all the BTC would be sold to small investors only, the market would develop in a nonsolid way. There needs to be old world big money buying large stashes of BTC and this is what the walls are for.

Translation from finnish: nomnomnom tasty big walls nomnom wait 'till my fiat clears nomnom.

stfu, dont you teach them no finnish, it was a deal, hush

[molecular]

I think I need to practice these tricks next week...

Just be careful. There might be truly humongeous amounts of fiat rolling in next week and "nomnomnom" gone is your scare-wall and you end up having done the exact opposite of what you intended to do.

[rpietila]

I think I need to practice these tricks next week...

Just be careful. There might be truly humongeous amounts of fiat rolling in next week and "nomnomnom" gone is your scare-wall and you end up having done the exact opposite of what you intended to do.

lol, and having ton$ of money in the exchange with no fiat exit door!

[molecular]

However, at the moment, you're right in everything you say. But at the same time, some people will always not go for the best bargains. You will find people go on saturday evenings to buy expensive pizza on a gas station, while they could've bought it for almost half the price during the week in a normal super market. That's also pretty stupid, but people still do it.

Indeed.

I don't really mind they sold though, more coin for the strong hands. Just wish I would have had some fiat to buy around $55.

Less coin for the poor hands!

Having had the wish you stated I nowadays seldomly am "all-long" (I currently just about am, but that's because we just had a dip)

I usually sell some bitcoins on the legs up to catch the dips down to the 18 day EMA or so. Worked like a charm this time (I was out with friends and couldn't trade, but had my buy orders around 55). While this is less profitable than just holding on to the bitcoins in such a crazy bull market that just keeps rising, it has 2 positive effects:

• It adds liquidity (on the way up I sell (keeping things more reasonable), on the way down I buy (catching the knife))
• It gives me (at least a feeling of) some security (lessens my fear of a crash and also the damage)

[The-Real-Link]

Just searched for Bitcoin again on Google Trends and Russia's suddenly pegging 100% interest.  The whole European region is high, no doubt with the Cyprus news.

I'll figure that even if Google's not up to date, we might be having a lot of crazily wealthy Russians buying next week.

To go from a google search to making your first purchase can take more than a couple of days and can take weeks.

True, but all I was saying is that interest is at an ATH so whether that interest translates to buying coins in days or weeks ahead, it's all fuel for the rally.

[molecular]

Many people buying bitcoins now actually have more faith than most current forum members. They dont care shit about price. Bitstamp was hitting $77 last thursday. If I had had money and the volume were there (both negative) I would have bought also. Who knows if the price will dip and how much it will dip, and if the lag allows to trade etc.? I would have never suspected a ->50 shakeout would happen, at the max I would have been able to buy at $65 average rate during the weekend. Who cares really. The outcomes are BTC>1000 and BTC<100 in a few years. The first is a success, the second is a fail. There is no middle ground.

So true. I would however add at least 2 zeroes to the first number.

Well, I fail to grasp what exatly makes people sell at $50 but I am sure they had their reasons. Margin call could be one.

There have been some gut-wrenching panics (fueled in good part by auto-liquidations on bitcoinica (people got zhou-tonged)) in late 2011. I bet a lot of people will never forget the feeling they experienced on these ever-accellerating drops and swore to themselves to next time just fucking panic earlier than the others. Well, some are left holding the bag when things rebound to sanity nowadays. It's greed and feat that makes some poeple sell at $50.

I'm hoping the "new money" that has coins now is less fearful and I have a feeling many of the large holders think more like you (long term. "it's high risk, high reward and I'm not going to be shaken out by some childish 10-hour-long dip fabricated by these kids on a regular basis")

[oakpacific]

New walls at 73 and 75. I look forward to a time when there is enough money on the market the the wall makers will be too fearful to do this crap anymore.

Actually the walls serve an economic purpose of transferring big amounts of BTC from weak (overallocation in BTC) to strong (new entrants) hands. If all the BTC would be sold to small investors only, the market would develop in a nonsolid way. There needs to be old world big money buying large stashes of BTC and this is what the walls are for.

But they are rarely bought. Lately a little, but usually they are pulled before they can be bought. Just a fear tactic to manipulate for whatever reason.

The one at $68.91 was bought, someone throwed down a 20,000 BTC order, it was unmistakable, as had it been the bricklayer buying up his own wall, he would not have needed to overspend so much(the wall's size was only about 8K BTC).

[WikileaksDude]

New walls at 73 and 75. I look forward to a time when there is enough money on the market the the wall makers will be too fearful to do this crap anymore.

Actually the walls serve an economic purpose of transferring big amounts of BTC from weak (overallocation in BTC) to strong (new entrants) hands. If all the BTC would be sold to small investors only, the market would develop in a nonsolid way. There needs to be old world big money buying large stashes of BTC and this is what the walls are for.

But they are rarely bought. Lately a little, but usually they are pulled before they can be bought. Just a fear tactic to manipulate for whatever reason.

The one at $68.91 was bought, someone throwed down a 20,000 BTC order, it was unmistakable, as had it been the bricklayer buying up his own wall, he would not have needed to overspend so much(the wall's size was only about 8K BTC).

20k? that was a nasty order

[oakpacific]

Shrewd Finn. I would not feel safe sending large amount of my money to Slovenia or Russia.

But Poland is ok? 

I am talking about the difficulty of fighting the justice system when something goes foul, if Gox goes away with my money, I guess I would need to come to a Japanese rather than Polish court to file a suit.

[oakpacific]

Many people buying bitcoins now actually have more faith than most current forum members. They dont care shit about price. Bitstamp was hitting $77 last thursday. If I had had money and the volume were there (both negative) I would have bought also. Who knows if the price will dip and how much it will dip, and if the lag allows to trade etc.? I would have never suspected a ->50 shakeout would happen, at the max I would have been able to buy at $65 average rate during the weekend. Who cares really. The outcomes are BTC>1000 and BTC<100 in a few years. The first is a success, the second is a fail. There is no middle ground.

Well, I fail to grasp what exatly makes people sell at $50 but I am sure they had their reasons. Margin call could be one.

I more than agree with you.

Good point about margin calls, I can't blame people for that.

However, if someone sold at the low $50's thinking they'd be Captain Slick and get back in somewhere below that, they are (as I'm sure they're aware at this point) foolish.
Every metric by which you can measure Bitcoin points towards an increase in price.

In response to your opening statement, see proudhon. In fact I just ignored him, and it made me rather sad. I'm convinced he's doing nothing but trolling these days.

I love the bears, but when you can't even provide data or any argument for your position you are simply trolling.

I hope you stocked up on some coin for the run this week, rpietilla.  

But who can buy when nobody is selling? And that's the reason for major shakeoffs, to send bitcoins into the hands of people who could take better care of them, that's how free market achieves fiar distribution and erodes the advantage of early adopters.

[chriswilmer]

... and erodes the advantage of early adopters.

Exactly.

[byronbb]

... and erodes the advantage of early adopters.

Exactly.

Hard to hold a large chunk of coin as early adopter and not cash out a large percentage and basically be retired.

[Ichthyo]

... and erodes the advantage of early adopters.

Hard to hold a large chunk of coin as early adopter and not cash out a large percentage and basically be retired.

After "cashing out" you've got a huge pile of -- wait -- fiat money? correct?
Not sure how that's be going to be a retirement though.... 

[oakpacific]

... and erodes the advantage of early adopters.

Hard to hold a large chunk of coin as early adopter and not cash out a large percentage and basically be retired.

After "cashing out" you've got a huge pile of -- wait -- fiat money? correct?
Not sure how that's be going to be a retirement though....  

Let's be fair with them, they would be pretty well off, however, with the depreciation of fiats and appreciation of bitcoin we are approaching convergence pretty quick, and in the end we are on pretty much equal footing. An early adopter who cashed out 20K BTC at the bottom of $2(according to the days destroyed chart many of them did), is now being matched by a "sucker" who happened to buy 500 BTCs at the same bottom, not to say those who cashed out at below $1.

[chriswilmer]

Does anyone know when the verifications start to clear at Mt.Gox? As of writing it's nearly noon in Tokyo. Basically I'm wondering when all of the people with their finger hovering over the buy button will actually be allowed to do so.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I'm thinking it takes time after getting verified to notice that and then to send a wire transfer, plus Japanese banks close in 3 hours (3pm). This may explain why Tuesdays are often big. I assume they're working overtime to get people verified over the weekend, hence the Tuesday jump.