wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136
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March 31, 2013, 11:35:35 PM |
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Is all technical analysis a waste of time then?
Yes This is very much true, especially considering Bitcoin. Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that all information regarding a certain asset is available in the market. The price of the asset is the optimal outcome of supply and demand and therefore all the information is reflected in the current and past price and things like volume traded. In case of Bitcoin there is a huge asymmetry of information. If today everybody in the world who would at any time consider participating in this market knew not only of it's existence, but also profoundly understood the concept and all it's details, Bitcoin would trade for at least $100k right now. That is why it is considered impossible to consistently beat the market, unless you have a very long lucky streak. Fortunately, information isn't always spread evenly so opportunities to make money do exist, think for example of insider trading, or investing as a venture capitalist in startups. All of us here are extremely lucky to have been presented the opportunity of knowing and understanding Bitcoin before the rest of the world finds out, because Bitcoin is probably going to be the most important startup in the history of capitalism. Investing in Bitcoin truly is the trade of the century. Guys. This is graph best describes the situation. TA is great for short-term trading, FA is needed for long-term analysis. The future of Bitcoin 2 years out must be based upon projection of fundamentals (if you can even guess them all). The fact that I never hold something for a short period might explain my aversion to TA?
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Beta-coiner1
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March 31, 2013, 11:38:34 PM |
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What happens on Easter Sunday night on Bitstamp, stays on Bitstamp. Right, Mr. Manipulator?
Lol,I was thinking the same.There have been a lot of purchases and highs on there or Bitfloor.I suspect 100 will be hit tomorrow through Bitstamp.
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Missionary
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March 31, 2013, 11:55:23 PM |
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What happens on Easter Sunday night on Bitstamp, stays on Bitstamp. Right, Mr. Manipulator?
Lol,I was thinking the same.There have been a lot of purchases and highs on there or Bitfloor.I suspect 100 will be hit tomorrow through Bitstamp. It's gonna be fun to see what happens when the banks open on monday and tuesday. I guess most european banks have a holiday on monday, right?
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I am an evangelical missionary heading to China. Donations are welcome here (dedicated wallet): 1H8iswayfTaRb6oe2WjMCRmchBJHYyfx9z You can find more information about my plans here: http://btcmission.com
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samson
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2097
Merit: 1070
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March 31, 2013, 11:59:55 PM |
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What happens on Easter Sunday night on Bitstamp, stays on Bitstamp. Right, Mr. Manipulator?
Lol,I was thinking the same.There have been a lot of purchases and highs on there or Bitfloor.I suspect 100 will be hit tomorrow through Bitstamp. It's gonna be fun to see what happens when the banks open on monday and tuesday. I guess most european banks have a holiday on monday, right? They do have a holiday on Monday in Europe but I believe the Japanese banks are open tomorrow (today in Japan) so there will be new money arriving into MtGox very soon assuming it was sent Thursday / Friday.
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Missionary
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April 01, 2013, 12:10:09 AM |
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They do have a holiday on Monday in Europe but I believe the Japanese banks are open tomorrow (today in Japan) so there will be new money arriving into MtGox very soon assuming it was sent Thursday / Friday.
On that topic: The banking hours in Japan should already have begun.
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I am an evangelical missionary heading to China. Donations are welcome here (dedicated wallet): 1H8iswayfTaRb6oe2WjMCRmchBJHYyfx9z You can find more information about my plans here: http://btcmission.com
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SlaveInDebt
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April 01, 2013, 12:34:27 AM |
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"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain
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zkay
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April 01, 2013, 12:51:16 AM |
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Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something.
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wachtwoord
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1136
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April 01, 2013, 12:52:39 AM |
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Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something. Would you care?
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zkay
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April 01, 2013, 12:55:50 AM |
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Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something. Would you care? Yes, infact I'd be alarmed, seeing as I'm hoping for it to get to a certain valuation before I can cash out and buy a few big ticket items (for me, at least).
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bitarrow
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April 01, 2013, 01:12:16 AM |
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Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something. $40 would be an awesome day! buy buy buy
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Zomdifros
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April 01, 2013, 01:29:48 AM |
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Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something. $40 would be an awesome day! buy buy buy What if Bitcoin itself is some elaborate april fool staged by an anonymous nerd back in 2009? Only he happened to be a very talented developer and his creation got a life of it's own?
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bitarrow
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April 01, 2013, 01:37:30 AM |
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Heh, wouldn't that be quite the surprise? We all wake up tomorrow and it's down to $40 or something. $40 would be an awesome day! buy buy buy What if Bitcoin itself is some elaborate april fool staged by an anonymous nerd back in 2009? Only he happened to be a very talented developer and his creation got a life of it's own? Then I would say all developers/programmers that have reviewed the client and protocol code are either idiots or involved with the hoax. Im not worried However I wonder if Satoshi has thousands of BTC locked in multiple brain wallets And cashed it all in On April 1st. This would be more plausible
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oakpacific
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April 01, 2013, 01:54:02 AM |
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Is all technical analysis a waste of time then?
Yes This is very much true, especially considering Bitcoin. Technical Analysis is based on the assumption that all information regarding a certain asset is available in the market. The price of the asset is the optimal outcome of supply and demand and therefore all the information is reflected in the current and past price and things like volume traded. In case of Bitcoin there is a huge asymmetry of information. If today everybody in the world who would at any time consider participating in this market knew not only of it's existence, but also profoundly understood the concept and all it's details, Bitcoin would trade for at least $100k right now. That is why it is considered impossible to consistently beat the market, unless you have a very long lucky streak. Fortunately, information isn't always spread evenly so opportunities to make money do exist, think for example of insider trading, or investing as a venture capitalist in startups. All of us here are extremely lucky to have been presented the opportunity of knowing and understanding Bitcoin before the rest of the world finds out, because Bitcoin is probably going to be the most important startup in the history of capitalism. Investing in Bitcoin truly is the trade of the century. Guys. This graphic best describes the situation. TA is great for short-term trading, FA is needed for long-term analysis. The future of Bitcoin 2 years out must be based upon projection of fundamentals (if you can even guess them all). I agree with what user "David M" once said, when the price makes a new high, every technical analysis/trend becomes invalidated, you have to start all over again.
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The-Real-Link
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April 01, 2013, 02:49:39 AM |
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More wall pics? Sure. The bull run is starting early this week Also, listentobitcoin is pretty neat. Didn't see that huge buy ping on it though.
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Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name! Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD. Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins. And lead us into quadruple digits
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ehoffman
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April 01, 2013, 02:53:19 AM |
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Yup, I just saw the 2K wall-eater buy transaction
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Like my comments? Cheer me up at 137s1qFV63M6SXWhKkwjaZKEeZX23pq1hw Don't like my comments, donate to the BCRT (better comment research team) here at 1A1PbZypjEe7yanj69ApVS1FhK8UMW7Wdc
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The-Real-Link
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April 01, 2013, 02:58:53 AM |
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Aww looks like the command post was deleted.
Anyway, Buy ALL the Bitcoins!
Or wait, we just need some deals going down and they can you know, base the game on a transaction on a true story. Metal Gear Solid VI: Wall-Eater.
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Oh Loaded, who art up in Mt. Gox, hallowed be thy name! Thy dollars rain, thy will be done, on BTCUSD. Give us this day our daily 10% 30%, and forgive the bears, as we have bought their bitcoins. And lead us into quadruple digits
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ineededausername
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April 01, 2013, 03:16:53 AM |
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some idiotic bear keeps selling right after huge buys... I don't get it at all
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(BFL)^2 < 0
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oakpacific
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April 01, 2013, 03:18:04 AM |
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some idiotic bear keeps selling right after huge buys... I don't get it at all
Actually maybe conservative bulls closing out their margin positions.
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byronbb
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
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April 01, 2013, 03:24:00 AM |
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some idiotic bear keeps selling right after huge buys... I don't get it at all
Could be someone buying their own asks to cool the market, induce others to sell to him a bit lower. This sort of thing would be illegal I am sure in equity markets, but there is nothing to stop someone from doing this in the wild west of MtGox.
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zkay
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April 01, 2013, 03:40:04 AM |
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Mm, gox lag picking up. Prelude to...something? Hamsters switching shifts?
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