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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3901697 times)
eastpk
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September 05, 2013, 03:40:51 PM
 #12441

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.


While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

I'm fairly certain rockxie was at a China btc meetup and he was presenting this slideshow here talking about asicminer.

I know rockxie is very close with FC but we actually never heard anything from him on this.

EDIT: Looks like I am wrong - this looks like it may have been an interview with FC himself.

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xchrisxsays
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September 05, 2013, 03:42:34 PM
 #12442

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.


While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

Has anything changed since the end of June that would make this statement not true?
eastpk
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September 05, 2013, 03:45:13 PM
 #12443

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.


While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg2610934#msg2610934

Has anything changed since the end of June that would make this statement not true?

It doesnt look like it... I think its a good thing that they are holding back dividends because they are planning to exponentially increasing the amount of Gen 2 devices. Perhaps this is what they will use to achieve the 1000Th 

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WINSTARS -   We are changing the face of gamblingWHITEPAPERANN THREADTELEGRAMFACEBOOK ● Twitter
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September 05, 2013, 03:54:37 PM
 #12444

Alright, I'm buying more shares lol
Hello 5, we'll meet again.
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September 05, 2013, 03:57:32 PM
 #12445

Friedcat in the latest update:

Quote
There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

Any idea what "exponentially increased devices" means?
Does this mean they're planning on assembling a large number of "old" devices?
Or does that mean that they're planning to assemble some form of better devices ("gen1.5")?
Or even gen2 chips (this I doubt, since the plan was November at the earliest)?
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September 05, 2013, 04:05:49 PM
 #12446

Even if/when ASICMINER get's their 1PH up and running by end of year, will they only be keeping up with the race? There is likely about 10PH+ (underestimating based on BFL 2 week rule) in the works in between the 20000 (sarcasm) manufactures/ASIC companies.

They'd manage to then stay at 10% - keeping the valuation at approximately 2BTC, potentially higher if other investment ROI's decrease across the board (such as CoinLenders dropping 2% APR).

Making Apps and Websites for people. I charge reasonable rates ($30-40/hour in BTC).
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September 05, 2013, 04:07:14 PM
 #12447

Friedcat in the latest update:

Quote
There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

Any idea what "exponentially increased devices" means?
Does this mean they're planning on assembling a large number of "old" devices?
Or does that mean that they're planning to assemble some form of better devices ("gen1.5")?
Or even gen2 chips (this I doubt, since the plan was November at the earliest)?

I don't see how "exponentially increased" could semanticaly be used for a "form of hardware". And yes, gen2 is far away. So it is clear to me that he's speaking about the new G1-blades, saying that they will have to increase their number to follow the exponentially increasing diff. Basically the 200TH/s batch that we still haven't seen yet, and then the ~1PH/s though it's more fuzzy as it is more long term.
Things probably got delayed because of some hardware problems, that have been solved now as we have seen some working new blades on sell. This was probably a small first batch, and mass production volumes are not available yet, but probably ongoing at the moment.


Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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September 05, 2013, 04:32:34 PM
 #12448

I'm interested in buying some 84-day puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.0 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay above 2.0, that's a 65% annualized return - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding.
Vycid
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September 05, 2013, 04:39:25 PM
 #12449

I'm interested in buying some 84-day puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.0 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay above 2.0, that's a 65% annualized return - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding.


Wow, this looks familiar.

neilol
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September 05, 2013, 04:51:10 PM
 #12450

I'm interested in buying some 84-day puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.0 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay above 2.0, that's a 65% annualized return - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding.


Wow, this looks familiar.

I might be interested - Are these American or European execution? 84 days out is a century in BTC land

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September 05, 2013, 04:51:36 PM
 #12451

I'm interested in buying some 84-day puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.0 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay above 2.0, that's a 65% annualized return - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding.


Wow, this looks familiar.

I might be interested - Are these American or European execution? 84 days out is a century in BTC land
They are American.
conv3rsion
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September 05, 2013, 07:14:47 PM
 #12452

A couple things I'd like to bring up

1) The franchising model only makes sense if you believe that you have the capability to obtain a dangerously high portion of the network

2) AM has been better at the supply chain game than anyone else in the market. BFL raised much more money and developed better performing technology but they couldn't ship shit. I wonder if actually being in China matters... oh right it does.

3) Exponentially increased devices means exponentially increased devices. Friedcat hasn't made a lot of promises that he hasn't come through on. He has a distinct advantage in component pricing and sourcing. 

At the end of the day, the question is do you think AM can mine with, sell, or franchise a combined 10-20% of future BTC.

I do. That's why I'm a buyer again.
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September 05, 2013, 07:24:19 PM
 #12453

1) The franchising model only makes sense if you believe that you have the capability to obtain a dangerously high portion of the network

It is also a way to get decentralization "for free" of a mining farm. Thus it reduces dependance over local power outage, physical or digital security breaches, etc.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
Vycid
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September 05, 2013, 07:33:59 PM
 #12454

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.

"Guys, where's the money for 0.04 per share gonna come from?"

"Volume!"

Hahahahaha.  Grin Roll Eyes

Quoting this for the future.

I do. That's why I'm a buyer again.

Remind me, when were you not a buyer?

conv3rsion
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September 05, 2013, 07:39:23 PM
 #12455

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.

"Guys, where's the money for 0.04 per share gonna come from?"

"Volume!"

Hahahahaha.  Grin Roll Eyes

Quoting this for the future.

I do. That's why I'm a buyer again.

Remind me, when were you not a buyer?

Around 4 I was a holder, not a buyer. I'm pretty damn comfortable with 20% annual ROI, but I also have other things I want to invest in.

At 2 btc, its a question of whether Friedcat can mine and sell 5% of the network, and I'm pretty comfortable that he can.
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September 05, 2013, 07:48:42 PM
 #12456

Around 4 I was a holder, not a buyer. I'm pretty damn comfortable with 20% annual ROI, but I also have other things I want to invest in.

At 2 btc, its a question of whether Friedcat can mine and sell 5% of the network, and I'm pretty comfortable that he can.
Then sell me some puts. Smiley Unless you think dividends will surpass 0.029 on average for the next 12 weeks.

I'm interested in buying some 84-day puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.0 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract.

Anyone interested?

If ASICMiner shares stay above 2.0, that's a 65% annualized return - about double what ASICMiner is currently yielding.

Vycid
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September 05, 2013, 08:01:32 PM
 #12457

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.

"Guys, where's the money for 0.04 per share gonna come from?"

"Volume!"

Hahahahaha.  Grin Roll Eyes

Quoting this for the future.

I do. That's why I'm a buyer again.

Remind me, when were you not a buyer?

Around 4 I was a holder, not a buyer. I'm pretty damn comfortable with 20% annual ROI, but I also have other things I want to invest in.

At 2 btc, its a question of whether Friedcat can mine and sell 5% of the network, and I'm pretty comfortable that he can.

Oh! I see. When you said "I think they are about to absolutely crush it" you meant "I think they need to halve in price before they will be worth buying."

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September 05, 2013, 08:04:34 PM
 #12458

TLDR; I think they are about to absolutely crush it.

"Guys, where's the money for 0.04 per share gonna come from?"

"Volume!"

Hahahahaha.  Grin Roll Eyes

Quoting this for the future.

I do. That's why I'm a buyer again.

Remind me, when were you not a buyer?

Around 4 I was a holder, not a buyer. I'm pretty damn comfortable with 20% annual ROI, but I also have other things I want to invest in.

At 2 btc, its a question of whether Friedcat can mine and sell 5% of the network, and I'm pretty comfortable that he can.

Oh! I see. When you said "I think they are about to absolutely crush it" you meant "I think they need to halve in price to be worth buying."

Vycid purposely playing dumb here.  How could you draw that out of what he said?  You've made some legit posts before that make an investor think more deeply about their investments.  This was not one of them.

Freedom is a state of mind, and then Bitcoin comes along.....
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September 05, 2013, 08:14:54 PM
 #12459



Oh! I see. When you said "I think they are about to absolutely crush it" you meant "I think they need to halve in price before they will be worth buying."

I'm not a trader, I'm a value investor. The fact that a few weeks of reduced dividends (where the reason stated for the reduction was reinvestment) scared people into dumping their shares has NOTHING to do with the company's performance or long term prospects. Reduced dividends I might add that STILL are averaging 40% APR on the current price.

You're lucky that your put options were able to be executed during their window, after all the price did MORE THAN DOUBLE since the time you began selling them. Avalon failed amazingly to ship their chips, BFL failed so horribly that they had to start preorders for yet another product (without their merchant account), and no other company still to this day can sell me an asic miner that will ship this week. Its september BTW.

Yet, a bunch of soon to be defunct mining companies (many of which invested in those failed avalon chips and BFL orders) sprung up and people got antsy and put bets on them.

Round one is over. AM made a fuck load of money. I'm happy I own shares for round two.
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September 05, 2013, 08:26:49 PM
 #12460

I thought that Asicminer sent 1 satoshi per share to identify how many shares belong to each address.  115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF looks like the address used to send both dividend payments and satoshis, but it looks like the satoshis stopped being sent after 2013-05-29 (https://blockchain.info/address/115tTroRo3B9ZDQ6ATJGDCHcNEVbjJoZnF?offset=100&filter=0).  Did they stop doing this?  Isn't this the only official way to verify ownership of shares?
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