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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914546 times)
Franktank
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August 30, 2013, 06:37:26 AM
 #12201

I apologize for starting WWIII. Who knew?

And the winner is...
The only winning move is not to play.

How about a nice game of chess?

WWIII is Word War III, right? With all these grammatical corrections, someone may have forgotten the letter "L" somewhere...

Everyone is too busy arguing to notice how clever my post was. This is rather upsetting...  Cry
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1669490721
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.


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August 30, 2013, 06:38:27 AM
 #12202

EDIT:  Never said I knew how to calculate, just that DnT's calcs were clearly wrong.

OK, well you've managed to confuse me again. When you wrote:

Calculations to support these probabilities?  They do not seem accurate to me.

I thought you'd calculated your own results and had already compared them to D&Ts - otherwise how would you know if they looked accurate or not?


Bitcoin network and pool analysis 12QxPHEuxDrs7mCyGSx1iVSozTwtquDB3r
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Rebelution
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August 30, 2013, 06:49:11 AM
 #12203

Simple answer:  we don't know because AM's hash rate does not conform to any common distributions.  Also I am quite comfortable admitting that it is a difficult problem, and other posters on this board could probably make better calculations than me.  IMHO Admitting your own limitations is perfectly OK...

I also stated I think Flotes' calculations are reasonable but a bit low.  Please read the coin analogy to understand my principle issue with the DnT's conclusions.
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August 30, 2013, 06:55:48 AM
 #12204

EDIT:  Never said I knew how to calculate, just that DnT's calcs were clearly wrong.

OK, well you've managed to confuse me again. When you wrote:

Calculations to support these probabilities?  They do not seem accurate to me.

I thought you'd calculated your own results and had already compared them to D&Ts - otherwise how would you know if they looked accurate or not?

It's called a back of the envelope calculation and common sense.
empoweoqwj
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August 30, 2013, 07:22:35 AM
 #12205

Technically he didn't have to refund such a mistake. I am 0.0005 BTC poorer per share I own because of his damn integrity!

wow - you must be fun to have as a friend  Huh
ning
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August 30, 2013, 07:30:36 AM
 #12206

In the world of Bitcoin, the positive value of -200BTC is beyond our wildest dream. Luckily, we got that for free.
David Chen
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August 30, 2013, 07:39:03 AM
 #12207

In the world of Bitcoin, the positive value of -200BTC is beyond our wildest dream. Luckily, we got that for free.

I guess you are from China,right?

reputation is everything.
ning
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August 30, 2013, 07:45:20 AM
 #12208

In the world of Bitcoin, the positive value of -200BTC is beyond our wildest dream. Luckily, we got that for free.

I guess you are from China,right?

Physically, no; originally, yes.
hcburger
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August 30, 2013, 07:56:43 AM
 #12209

Quote
1.  Why do you guys think that AM’s rate of finding blocks is poission distributed?  It is definitely not a poisson process, but I admit that that fact does not preclude its results from being poission distributed.  That being said, due to the variance in AM's hash rate that friedcat has admitted, we know that it is not poisson distributed.

Block discovery is still Poisson distributed.
According to Wikipedia: "[...] the Poisson distribution [...] is a discrete probability distribution that expresses the probability of a given number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time and/or space if these events occur with a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event."
What matters is the average rate. It does not matter that the rate fluctuates.
So we do have a Poisson distribution, though we don't know the average rate exactly.

Quote
2. Many of you are missing a crucial point.  The difference between the expected value for a GIVEN 6 hour period is a VERY DIFFERENT question from the probability that 0 blocks will be found in ANY ONE 6 hour period.  Allow me to illustrate with an example, and I think even you condescending / smug posters will understand.  The probability of flipping a coin 3 times and getting heads each time is VERY DIFFERENT from flipping a coin 50 times a getting a string of 3 heads in a row.  I really hope you guys see why...  Now, I know thinking is difficult but please try.  Now think for an example how this concept applies to this situation.  Do you see now?

Using your coin flipping analogy: Why not flip the coin 500 times? 5000? An infinite number of times? This is uninteresting. Given very long time periods we can expect any number of unlikely events (e.g. Boltzmann brains).
What we are interested in is a given 6 hour period.
supert
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August 30, 2013, 08:21:20 AM
 #12210

I also stated I think Flotes' calculations are reasonable but a bit low.  Please read the coin analogy to understand my principle principal issue with the DnT's conclusions.

Since we are correcting people's english...
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August 30, 2013, 08:23:09 AM
Last edit: August 30, 2013, 08:40:28 AM by freedomno1
 #12211

I'll just leave this here...




I'm not getting into this I'll let you all do the math since it is AM releated, for once its not my grammar at issue.
All this talk about granularity's is an interesting change of pace.
But I'll throw in a hat
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=246307.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1682.0
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https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Generation_Calculator
Lauda
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Terminated.


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August 30, 2013, 11:07:52 AM
 #12212

I'll just leave this here...



and the winner for the most awesome bitcoin related meme goes to..
 Grin Cheesy Cheesy

"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"
😼 Bitcoin Core (onion)
San1ty
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August 30, 2013, 11:09:13 AM
 #12213

PT Share price has gone in a comatose state. I guess no-one bothers and just holds?

Found my posts helpful? Consider buying me a beer :-)!:
BTC - 1San1tyUGhfWRNPYBF4b6Vaurq5SjFYWk NXT - 17063113680221230777
BitCsByBit
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August 30, 2013, 11:34:02 AM
Last edit: August 30, 2013, 12:24:36 PM by BitCsByBit
 #12214

PT Share price has gone in a comatose state. I guess no-one bothers and just holds?

And then someone dumps 150+ shares.    Smiley

Edit: And a whole bunch more.

Tipsy jar: 1HgfLMXiJQj9KZ7abLRh9rWuR7dgeSyub4
culexevilman
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August 30, 2013, 12:29:12 PM
 #12215

more cheap shares! get your coins ready!
lophie
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August 30, 2013, 12:52:01 PM
 #12216

I apologize for starting WWIII. Who knew?

And the winner is...
The only winning move is not to play.



How about a nice game of chess?

WWIII is Word War III, right? With all these grammatical corrections, someone may have forgotten the letter "L" somewhere...

The grammer Nazies will prevail!

Will take me a while to climb up again, But where is a will, there is a way...
abramelin582
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August 30, 2013, 02:32:16 PM
 #12217

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?
bitfair
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August 30, 2013, 02:42:08 PM
 #12218

  A few days ago Friedcat gave us an update. He made a vague reference to franchising, he said he has began doing it in China and plans to expand in the near future. I'm not sure what he means by franchising but I know what I hope he means. I hope he means he will be offering hardware at a price that will undercut the competitors but will share some of the hashing power with ASICMINER. For example, if they sold hardware that was cheaper than their competitors but shared say 15% of its hashing power with ASICMINER, then they could ensure that anyone buying new hardware was buying from them. They wouldn't even need to undercut in fact,  they'd just need real products ready to ship, not vaporware/pre-orders that waste your ROI waiting in line. I also think they should release new USB block eruptors (2nd generation) for free. YES FOR FREE. Sounds crazy, I know! But not if 95% of their hashing power is going to ASICMINER.

     ASICMINER is a mining company first and foremost. They only sell hardware so they don't gain too much of the total network hashing rate. If they followed a franchising program similar to this, then they could continue selling hardware while not diluting their portion of the total network hash rate. We all know the hardest part of running a large scale mining operation is powering it, and Friedcat doesn't exactly have the cheapest electricity. Franchising in such a manor can allow ASICMINER to expand without needing to worry about powering its farm, as the operators with presumably cheaper electrical rates would be running it for him.

     I truly believe that if ASICMINER followed through with a franchising plan like the one I'm presenting then they could continue to sell hardware while maintaining 20-30% of the total network power. If their compitions fails to ship and they begin to get close to 51% they could always raise the price of their hardware, and decrease the amount it shares with ASICMINER.

     So what do you guys think? What did i miss? What do you think his franchising will entail?

I think the days of worrying about a 51% attack from AM are well behind us.

My interpretation of the franchising was that AM will provide mining hardware to someone, and in return receive a percentage of the revenue based on theoretical hash rate of the hardware. It's a great way to scale up, since infrastructure for a single large mining operation becomes increasingly difficult and time-consuming to handle.

As for giving away hardware for free, I think you've lost the plot, mate!
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August 30, 2013, 02:50:15 PM
 #12219


I understood franchising the same way you did, including the fact that it allows to expand the AM network hash rate without threatening the network.
I think for the franchisee, it allows to mine without supporting the risk of not breaking-even. AM will ensure that somehow.

Where I don't follow you that much, is about the free USBs. Technically, I don't see a way to ensure that mining hardware are going to share revenue with AM.
I think AM only franchise with people that they trust, and that have collateral (shares, btc?) to ensure they are not going to run away with the hardware and keep all revenues for themselves. And I don't believe this type or relationship can scale to thousands of people around the globe easily. If there would be a technical way to make something as spread as you describe feasible, it would be truly awesome.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
finlof
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August 30, 2013, 03:16:14 PM
 #12220

I apologize for starting WWIII. Who knew?

And the winner is...
The only winning move is not to play.



How about a nice game of chess?

WWIII is Word War III, right? With all these grammatical corrections, someone may have forgotten the letter "L" somewhere...

The grammer Nazies will prevail!

that would be grammar
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