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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3914546 times)
freedomno1
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September 04, 2013, 11:32:01 PM
 #12421

Resistance at 2.4 just vaporized.

How low can we go???

Vycid, post that stuff in the speculation thread, that's why there is one.
you really come across as a daytrader with a short attention span,
it's needless to constantly rumble through here telling us how AM is going to hell.
i don't care what's the shareprice right now, i wait at least until 2nd gen release before I think about selling because nothing else makes sense at this point.

so you're shortterm trading?
fine, but spread your shortsighted "analysis" and predictions where they belong, because you have no information whatsoever what happens mid- to longterm.


can't we just enjoy our divs for a minute???

happy frieday everybody!



Happy Friedday Smiley
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Vycid
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September 05, 2013, 12:12:53 AM
 #12422

Resistance at 2.4 just vaporized.

How low can we go???

Vycid, post that stuff in the speculation thread, that's why there is one.
you really come across as a daytrader with a short attention span,
it's needless to constantly rumble through here telling us how AM is going to hell.
i don't care what's the shareprice right now, i wait at least until 2nd gen release before I think about selling because nothing else makes sense at this point.

so you're shortterm trading?
fine, but spread your shortsighted "analysis" and predictions where they belong, because you have no information whatsoever what happens mid- to longterm.


can't we just enjoy our divs for a minute???

happy frieday everybody!



Uh, I actually am not a technical trader, and I have never played a short-term movement on AM. I don't know how many times I have to say it: my issue with AM is with its fundamentals, not its share price momentum. I was bearish long before AM started going down (that's how I own options - people were willing to sell them to me).

But none of this changes the fact that the previous strong support at 2.4 evaporated in all of 5 minutes. I may be a fundamental investor but I'm not blind. (You are right, however - it did belong in the speculation thread.)

And happy friedday  Smiley those dividends were quite strong.

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September 05, 2013, 01:46:20 AM
 #12423

Uh, I actually am not a technical trader, and I have never played a short-term movement on AM. I don't know how many times I have to say it: my issue with AM is with its fundamentals, not its share price momentum. I was bearish long before AM started going down (that's how I own options - people were willing to sell them to me).

But none of this changes the fact that the previous strong support at 2.4 evaporated in all of 5 minutes. I may be a fundamental investor but I'm not blind. (You are right, however - it did belong in the speculation thread.)

And happy friedday  Smiley those dividends were quite strong.

There is a speculation thread for all these posts, give that one a go - you'll get a better response/conversation going. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.0)

Cheers
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September 05, 2013, 03:15:43 AM
 #12424

Uh, I actually am not a technical trader, and I have never played a short-term movement on AM. I don't know how many times I have to say it: my issue with AM is with its fundamentals, not its share price momentum. I was bearish long before AM started going down (that's how I own options - people were willing to sell them to me).

But none of this changes the fact that the previous strong support at 2.4 evaporated in all of 5 minutes. I may be a fundamental investor but I'm not blind. (You are right, however - it did belong in the speculation thread.)

And happy friedday  Smiley those dividends were quite strong.

i haven't read your posts recently, but i don't know what's the problem with the fundamentals?

my 2 satoshis to situation right now:
btc value goes up, share value corrects down
on top divs go low -> weak shareholders nervously sell and invest in other companies.
competition mining and hardware-wise is growing, lot of new ipos right now making promises until asics are delievered and running.
and finally demand for 2nd gen hardware is knocking at the doors.

AM stands in between this mayhem as a half mining half hardware selling company.
Friedcat has done quite good until now and has lot of experience in both sectors.
because he doesn't take preorders he's not forced to throw out much information about next generation plans like all the others that make their profit with the naive faith of their consumers  
(BFL really took the cake with the action to change long overdue orders to that monarch card and wait again for some months - Do people even realize that AM is the only company that doesn't require these risky interest-free loans in advance Huh).

Mining market in the longterm will probably split into some big mining companies with expensive setups and high energy consumption and on the other side we'll see the mining sector for "consumers" that needs cheap, small and user-friendly plug&play asics for their homes. (block erupters are a good example for this)
that consumer-market is where AsicMiner has the best reputation until now and if we see more adaption of btc this sector will keep on booming.

it feels to me like the beginning of digital era all over again apart from the mining game (Intel, IBM, AMD, DELL, Apple etc.). two or three main chip manufacturers, a lot of companies bulding asics and selling them (some going high-end, some endconsumer) and a few monopolistic mining companies that are equally balanced with endconsumer mining (at least i hope so).

i have no clue which companies from today will still exist in 2 or 3 years but imo AM still has a more than average chance to pull it off when i look at the chaotic market we have today.


of course all of this is pure speculation, so feel free to correct me if i went over the top or misinterpreted some aspects. Tongue


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September 05, 2013, 03:55:53 AM
 #12425

why everybody is jumping into bitcoin ASIC. If cointerra team is the best, they should invent litecoin ASIC and become AM of litecoin.

Litecoin ASICs are much less lucrative for technical reasons (Scrypt is memory-hard)

No reason you couldn't make an ASIC with embedded RAM.  If you made a CPU-style design with enough embedded ram to run litecoin at full speed, a chip like that would probably have lots of other practical uses.

Then by definition it wouldn't be an ASIC  Smiley

It's not that such a chip is impossible, it's that such a chip does not offer a great enough advantage over GPUs to encourage the kind of aggressive exploitation we're seeing with Bitcoin ASICs. No doubt they will emerge if Litecoin ever achieves Bitcoin's market size, but their appearance will not be accompanied by the same kind of 'gold rush' mentality. It will be an incremental step, offering primarily power efficiency over GPUs (since graphics cards enjoy an economy of scale Litecoin miners will likely never match) - I'd highlight FPGA vs GPU for Bitcoin as a good analogy.

Right they wouldn't be "ASICS" but they would be  CPUs hyper-optimziedfor Scrypt.  They would be more efficient per die size because they wouldn't need any of the floating point operations.  (Actually, someone could make a hashing algorithm optimized for FP functions.  That would be kind of cool)

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September 05, 2013, 04:29:05 AM
 #12426

Uh, I actually am not a technical trader, and I have never played a short-term movement on AM. I don't know how many times I have to say it: my issue with AM is with its fundamentals, not its share price momentum. I was bearish long before AM started going down (that's how I own options - people were willing to sell them to me).

But none of this changes the fact that the previous strong support at 2.4 evaporated in all of 5 minutes. I may be a fundamental investor but I'm not blind. (You are right, however - it did belong in the speculation thread.)

And happy friedday  Smiley those dividends were quite strong.

i haven't read your posts recently, but i don't know what's the problem with the fundamentals?

my 2 satoshis to situation right now:
btc value goes up, share value corrects down
on top divs go low -> weak shareholders nervously sell and invest in other companies.
competition mining and hardware-wise is growing, lot of new ipos right now making promises until asics are delievered and running.
and finally demand for 2nd gen hardware is knocking at the doors.

AM stands in between this mayhem as a half mining half hardware selling company.
Friedcat has done quite good until now and has lot of experience in both sectors.
because he doesn't take preorders he's not forced to throw out much information about next generation plans like all the others that make their profit with the naive faith of their consumers  
(BFL really took the cake with the action to change long overdue orders to that monarch card and wait again for some months - Do people even realize that AM is the only company that doesn't require these risky interest-free loans in advance Huh).

Mining market in the longterm will probably split into some big mining companies with expensive setups and high energy consumption and on the other side we'll see the mining sector for "consumers" that needs cheap, small and user-friendly plug&play asics for their homes. (block erupters are a good example for this)
that consumer-market is where AsicMiner has the best reputation until now and if we see more adaption of btc this sector will keep on booming.

it feels to me like the beginning of digital era all over again apart from the mining game (Intel, IBM, AMD, DELL, Apple etc.). two or three main chip manufacturers, a lot of companies bulding asics and selling them (some going high-end, some endconsumer) and a few monopolistic mining companies that are equally balanced with endconsumer mining (at least i hope so).

i have no clue which companies from today will still exist in 2 or 3 years but imo AM still has a more than average chance to pull it off when i look at the chaotic market we have today.


of course all of this is pure speculation, so feel free to correct me if i went over the top or misinterpreted some aspects. Tongue



Here's a selection of my (relatively recent) posts on AM. Oldest to newest down the list.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2955785#msg2955785
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2969164#msg2969164
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984500#msg2984500
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2984672#msg2984672
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3059608#msg3059608
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3059938#msg3059938
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg3060226#msg3060226

Obviously many of these are structured as conversations, so you may need to follow the links to the original posts.

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September 05, 2013, 05:57:17 AM
 #12427

ehm okay...no response to my thesis whatsoever
well i read through most of your comments and after all your criticism I really have to ask why are you investing in this company?  Huh

please give me just some short headwords on what friedcat should concentrate to change things to your satisfaction?

for me one of the most underestimated fundamentals with AM compared to other companies is the mentality not to take preorders.
every other asic company made money because they promised hardware even if they couldn't deliever it in time.
by contrast every product that friedcat releases is selled out within weeks just because it is in stock, ready to deliever and gives a miner guaranteed timeframes to calculate with.
this fact distorts every comparison to other competitors.

sideline question: Are you invested in other companies?

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September 05, 2013, 06:05:47 AM
 #12428

ehm okay...no response to my thesis whatsoever
well i read through most of your comments and after all your criticism I really have to ask why are you investing in this company?  Huh

please give me just some short headwords on what friedcat should concentrate to change things to your satisfaction?

for me one of the most underestimated fundamentals with AM compared to other companies is the mentality not to take preorders.
every other asic company made money because they promised hardware even if they couldn't deliever it in time.
by contrast every product that friedcat releases is selled out within weeks just because it is in stock, ready to deliever and gives a miner guaranteed timeframes to calculate with.
this fact distorts every comparison to other competitors.

sideline question: Are you invested in other companies?

Haha. I'm not invested in AM. I effectively maintain a short position via put options. When AM goes down I make money.

Frankly, there is nothing FC can do at this point to make the shares fairly valued. It's too late; all of the dividends that could've been used for growth have been paid out, and AM will never come close to its old profit margins.

AM won't go out of business, but there's gonna be some serious adjustment. For the long-term, not the short term, by the way - I would be shocked if we ever see 3 BTC again.

Not taking preorders doesn't increase AM's value, really. It doesn't magically increase their forward gross margin, which is going to shrink. The "no preorders" benefit will disappear entirely when all the other ASIC companies have hardware in stock, and brutal price wars will ensue.

I am invested in Litecoin Global (BTCT's parent company), but it's a small position and I don't pay much attention to it.

I am also invested in a number of companies on traditional exchanges but that's kind of tangential.

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September 05, 2013, 06:51:04 AM
 #12429


Haha. I'm not invested in AM. I effectively maintain a short position via put options. When AM goes down I make money.

Frankly, there is nothing FC can do at this point to make the shares fairly valued. It's too late; all of the dividends that could've been used for growth have been paid out, and AM will never come close to its old profit margins.

AM won't go out of business, but there's gonna be some serious adjustment. For the long-term, not the short term, by the way - I would be shocked if we ever see 3 BTC again.

Not taking preorders doesn't increase AM's value, really. It doesn't magically increase their forward gross margin, which is going to shrink. The "no preorders" benefit will disappear entirely when all the other ASIC companies have hardware in stock, and brutal price wars will ensue.

I am invested in Litecoin Global (BTCT's parent company), but it's a small position and I don't pay much attention to it.

I am also invested in a number of companies on traditional exchanges but that's kind of tangential.

I think Vycid is one of more intriguing characters here.
I personally think he is gauging towards shareholders sentiment.
At least that would explain persistence in the effort.

At the very beginning he was accused of FUD. Which indicated clearly "hype" type of state of shareholder's sentiment, thus price is rather high.
Now we we see some people who "switched side" and agree with him, thus indicate that they most likely sold out and are potential buyers in the near future.
I think he waits for more people to reveal bearish sentiment which will lead to conclusion that everybody sold out, thus all what is left is buying power.


BTC:    1Hpk4rWpP3gACJhXHn8VkeNp4usdQmfuVY
LTC:    LM5p7X9dTsWj14G2VQeJKuntVUc6GsPnDp
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September 05, 2013, 07:55:00 AM
 #12430


Haha. I'm not invested in AM. I effectively maintain a short position via put options. When AM goes down I make money.

Frankly, there is nothing FC can do at this point to make the shares fairly valued. It's too late; all of the dividends that could've been used for growth have been paid out, and AM will never come close to its old profit margins.

AM won't go out of business, but there's gonna be some serious adjustment. For the long-term, not the short term, by the way - I would be shocked if we ever see 3 BTC again.

Not taking preorders doesn't increase AM's value, really. It doesn't magically increase their forward gross margin, which is going to shrink. The "no preorders" benefit will disappear entirely when all the other ASIC companies have hardware in stock, and brutal price wars will ensue.

I am invested in Litecoin Global (BTCT's parent company), but it's a small position and I don't pay much attention to it.

I am also invested in a number of companies on traditional exchanges but that's kind of tangential.

I think Vycid is one of more intriguing characters here.
I personally think he is gauging towards shareholders sentiment.
At least that would explain persistence in the effort.

At the very beginning he was accused of FUD. Which indicated clearly "hype" type of state of shareholder's sentiment, thus price is rather high.
Now we we see some people who "switched side" and agree with him, thus indicate that they most likely sold out and are potential buyers in the near future.
I think he waits for more people to reveal bearish sentiment which will lead to conclusion that everybody sold out, thus all what is left is buying power.




i think Vycid is a narcissistic troll who happened to be right about a couple of things. He promised to reduce the post count; he hasn't so is back on ignore.

I predicted .014 just because It gives 30% yield at current price. That's all that's setting the price.

Below 2.5, am is cheap.
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September 05, 2013, 09:56:28 AM
 #12431

I think Vycid can't possibly know the future. To predict that AM will never go above 3 btc is easy to predict impossible to guarantee.

 If AM has a better usb stick on the market before the holidays they would be boosted in price. If AM puts up 50th more hash power they would be boosted in price. If AM sells a better blade by black friday they would be boosted in price.

 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.
 AM may not increase hashpower.
 AM may not sell a better stick or a better blade in the near future. ie 2013 no better gear .

 How the f does Vycid know any of the above info?

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1) be like JJG just DCA
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September 05, 2013, 10:20:14 AM
 #12432


 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.


Where the data(1000 th) comes from? Thanks. Does KNC claim that ?
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September 05, 2013, 11:40:09 AM
 #12433


 No company sell asics in stock. (other then AM).

 On the down side Knc could drop 1000 th in the next 75 days.


Where the data(1000 th) comes from? Thanks. Does KNC claim that ?


I have only read the number online not on knc's site.

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September 05, 2013, 12:01:16 PM
 #12434

Let's crash the price and buy back in?  Cheesy

"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"
😼 Bitcoin Core (onion)
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September 05, 2013, 02:35:30 PM
 #12435

Resistance at 2.4 just vaporized.

How low can we go???

crashed all the way to 2.399 BTC

lol

What a wizard

2.071

My robe and wizard hat, plz.

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September 05, 2013, 03:08:02 PM
 #12436

ha ha, magic over math  Wink
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September 05, 2013, 03:10:30 PM
 #12437

Resistance at 2.4 just vaporized.

How low can we go???

crashed all the way to 2.399 BTC

lol

What a wizard

2.071

My robe and wizard hat, plz.

Shares traded on BTCT.CO represent >10% of AM share base. Who cares, at 30% 12 months dividend I'm perfectly fine with just moth-balling my few shares. If AM actually rolls out Gen 2 to the tune of 1/5th of the network in the next 2 months anything under 3 BTC is cheap anyway.
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September 05, 2013, 03:11:10 PM
 #12438

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.
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September 05, 2013, 03:32:18 PM
 #12439

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.


While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.
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September 05, 2013, 03:36:15 PM
 #12440

It's real simple folks:

- AM hash-share has dropped from near 50% to under 10%
- Prices of hardware have fallen massively and will only ever get lower, as competition increases and ROI drops over time for buyers.

Given these two facts the shares have fallen from their massively over-valued 5BTC, to a more realistic 2BTC. If things stay the same I wouldn't be surprised to see the price fall further still.

To see a price rise AM would have to post some massive change to the mining and huge hardware sales.


While this is of course true, it also seems people have forgotten about AM's rollout plans for 800-1000 TH before year-end and the Gen 2 chips. That said, I think we will see a stabilization around 3 BTC once the 'panic' caused by a lot of noobs that purchased shares around 4.5 BTC selling off.

I found that on GenesisBlock, but can you point me to any public statement from FriedCat about the schedule of rolling out 1PH/s by the end of the year?
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