ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[bitfair]

From Block Erupter thread:

Now people are seeing it as a threat as 50TH would be enough to take over the block chain should BFL fail to produce a single working chip.

But it would not  be in the interest of the shareholders if ASICMINER became a threat to Bitcoin as the value of BTC would plummet.

Should BFL go bust then I think it is in everyone's interest if ASICMINER changed it's business plan to make sure everyone understand and sees it is not a threat to anything or anyone.

As it stands at the moment, ASICMINER will be the first ASIC around and small enough to NOT be a threat to Bitcoin. Doe sit suck for people that invested heavily with BFL, of course it does.... but does that mean that ASICMINER is a threat? NO !

Let's hope that we don't get delayed as well. In the end, we are going through *almost* the same process.

Though I wouldn't call it a change in plan, because I don't think there is a plan yet. I guess at that point, everyone would want an ASICMINER device.

But what if it's not convenient for ASICMINER to produce and ship consumer grade products, or somehow can't do it fast enough to counter its own hashrate? I imagine the second best option is to sell mining plants. As long as they are in a different location and under different management, we should be OK. The party that buys the plant can lease it out as well.

If all other ASIC efforts fail or are delayed until the second batch of ASICMINER chips are ready, just imagine the profit margin that can be charged for those chips in a market without competitors - selling the chips/boards/rigs would definitely be a tempting alternative to self-mining.

[1714174648]

1714174648

[LoweryCBS]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130401.0

Seriously, as investors we're missing out by not having our shares floated on another exchange.

Now that we've received the list from GLBSE, it's a trivial matter to import that onto https://btct.co/

So why has this not been done?

Some shareholders will want to sell ("Buy on Rumor, Sell on News") and some (like me) will want to BUY MORE!

[bitcoinbear]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130401.0

Seriously, as investors we're missing out by not having our shares floated on another exchange.

Now that we've received the list from GLBSE, it's a trivial matter to import that onto https://btct.co/

So why has this not been done?

Some shareholders will want to sell ("Buy on Rumor, Sell on News") and some (like me) will want to BUY MORE!

What was the final price on GBSE? Where would you put the price now?

[DiabloD3]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130401.0

Seriously, as investors we're missing out by not having our shares floated on another exchange.

Now that we've received the list from GLBSE, it's a trivial matter to import that onto https://btct.co/

So why has this not been done?

Some shareholders will want to sell ("Buy on Rumor, Sell on News") and some (like me) will want to BUY MORE!

We're not missing out on anything unless you want to sell your shares.

[DutchBrat]

We're not missing out on anything unless you want to sell your shares.

After the 1st dividend payment by ASICMINER and still no option to trade the shares, everyone that does not have shares is missing out

[LoweryCBS]

I've got 1000 shares I paid 0.1 BTC for.    I'll buy whatever shares you have for 0.135 BTC

Don't want sell them to me at that price? Maybe someone else does. Would you sell yours for 0.2 BTC? Maybe someone would pay that. Maybe someone would pay me 0.3 BTC, in which case I'd sell.

If only there was some way we could know how much people would bid, and how much shareholders would ask...........

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=130401.0

Seriously, as investors we're missing out by not having our shares floated on another exchange.

Now that we've received the list from GLBSE, it's a trivial matter to import that onto https://btct.co/

So why has this not been done?

Some shareholders will want to sell ("Buy on Rumor, Sell on News") and some (like me) will want to BUY MORE!

We're not missing out on anything unless you want to sell your shares.

[MrTeal]

I doubt you're that naive.

Did you miss what happened to DMC?

[LoweryCBS]

What was the final price on GBSE? Where would you put the price now?

I don't recall the last price, but the price I paid for my 1000 shares was 0.1

I'd say that, given the ASIC race that apparently we're winning, today's settled price could be around 0.18

That being the case, I'd like to buy some at 0.13 and turn a profit. But I can't, because they aren't being traded.

Community hype could drive the price up as high as .25 on re-listing, in which case I'd sell half my holdings to buy back on a correction.

Maybe there's someone out there with 1000 shares that needs money for Christmas - how can they convert their holdings to BTC?

[DiabloD3]

I doubt you're that naive.

Did you miss what happened to DMC?

DMC got screwed by nefario, is what happened.

[Deprived]

I doubt you're that naive.

Did you miss what happened to DMC?

DMC got screwed by nefario, is what happened.

Yeah, he screwed you for the last 10% of invested funds after you'd lost the first 90% all on your own.

Back on topic, last traded price of ASICMINER on GLBSE was around .108 (about 10 minutes beofre GLBSE died top bid was about .105 and lowest Ask about .11).

It had usually been trading in the .11 - .12 area but had fallen just below that last few days of GLBSE as someone was unloading a big chunk of them.  That had happened before - and price had always rebounded back up afterwards.  On most recent news I'd tend to value them a bit higher - but it's a total gamble given how completely unreliable initial delivery dates have been for all ASICs (and the potential for more significant delay on this one and others in later stages of product assembly/testing).

[DutchBrat]

Let's do some back of an envelope math for the value of the shares:

Assumptions:
1. ASICMINER starts mining Jan 1st 2013 with 6TH
2. ASICMINER brings online another 6TH Jan 14th
3. BFL and Avalon customers start mining Jan 21st
4. Network hashrate stays around these levels between now and Jan 1st

ASICMINER will be about 1/5th of the total network for 2 weeks (6 out of 30 TH)
This means they will  mine 1/5th off the Bitcoins for 14 days = (14 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 5 =  10080 BTC
They will mine for one week with 1/3rd of the total network (12 / 36 TH) = (7 * 24 * 6 *25) / 3 = 8400 BTC

So a total of 18480 BTC will be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks

Divided by 200.000 shares = 0.0924 BTC per share. Which brings us close to the point where the other 200.000 shares owned by Friedcat et al will start receiving dividend as well (after 0.10 BTC is paid out as dividend)

After BFL and Avalon customers start mining as well the total hashrate will go up to perhaps 200 - 250 TH

ASICMINER will slowely build out their mining farm to 50TH, becoming 1/6th of the total network, perhaps less but will also add a new revenue stream by selling ASICs to customers.

Being 1/6th of the network will yield (7 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 6 = 4200 BTC per week divided by 400.000 shares = 0.01 BTC div per week

Valuation for the shares based on this:

Anyones guess, but looking at how mining stock and bonds were valued on GLBSE then I would say well over 1 BTC per share

disclaimer: back of the envelope valuations are not based on actual figures and the mathematician can not be held responsible should investments yield anything less than expected !

[DiabloD3]

I doubt you're that naive.

Did you miss what happened to DMC?

DMC got screwed by nefario, is what happened.

Yeah, he screwed you for the last 10% of invested funds after you'd lost the first 90% all on your own

Except nefario claimed he thoroughly vetted every asset on GLBSE, and did nothing when one or more mining companies flooded the market with shares not backed by assets and managed to collapse the market.

In addition, around 2k was invested in DMC, and I've already paid half of that back and bought back half the shares before the collapse of GLBSE.

The most you can claim is DMC lost half its value (the other half of the shares I have not repurchased yet), but then it'd still be nefario's fault because he closed GLBSE and fucked every asset issuer on there including the ones DMC invested in.

[RHA]

ASICMINER will be about 1/5th of the total network for 2 weeks (6 out of 30 TH)
This means they will  mine 1/5th off the Bitcoins for 14 days = (14 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 5 =  10080 BTC
They will mine for one week with 1/3rd of the total network (12 / 36 TH) = (7 * 24 * 6 *25) / 3 = 8400 BTC

So a total of 18480 BTC will be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks

A small correction.
For simplicity I assume they will start just after difficulty adjustment.
When they make the 24 TH grow to 30 TH, the difficulty will be adjusted earlier.  It'll be adjusted after 5/6 * 14 days = 11.6 days, to 6/5 higher value.
So there would be ~8400 BTC for the first ~11.6 days plus ~1400 BTC for the next  ~2.4 days (of higher difficulty) before next batch.
Than the third week would give 8400 * 5/6 = ~7000 BTC (because of 6/5 times higher difficulty).

So a total of 16800 BTC would be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks.

[DutchBrat]

ASICMINER will be about 1/5th of the total network for 2 weeks (6 out of 30 TH)
This means they will  mine 1/5th off the Bitcoins for 14 days = (14 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 5 =  10080 BTC
They will mine for one week with 1/3rd of the total network (12 / 36 TH) = (7 * 24 * 6 *25) / 3 = 8400 BTC

So a total of 18480 BTC will be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks

A small correction.
For simplicity I assume they will start just after difficulty adjustment.
When they make the 24 TH grow to 30 TH, the difficulty will be adjusted earlier.  It'll be adjusted after 5/6 * 14 days = 11.6 days, to 6/5 higher value.
So there would be ~8400 BTC for the first ~11.6 days plus ~1400 BTC for the next  ~2.4 days (of higher difficulty) before next batch.
Than the third week would give 8400 * 5/6 = ~7000 BTC (because of 6/5 times higher difficulty).

So a total of 16800 BTC would be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks.

I was under the impression that difficulty doesn't matter in this case

If you look at the % of the total  network you can just use the theoretical number of Bitcoins mined and that is always the same (because of difficulty adjustments).
25 BTC per block, 6 blocks per hour, so  3600 BTC per day no matter what the difficulty.

If anything getting 6TH online on a lower difficulty will mean you mine those BTC quicker, bringing the higher difficulty forward. It won;t impact the number of BTC mined by ASICMINER

[Bogart]

What was the final price on GBSE?

I thought I might have saved this for a reason:

[Transisto]

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel.

my +1 for BitFunder

[RHA]

I was under the impression that difficulty doesn't matter in this case

If you look at the % of the total  network you can just use the theoretical number of Bitcoins mined and that is always the same (because of difficulty adjustments).
25 BTC per block, 6 blocks per hour, so  3600 BTC per day no matter what the difficulty.

If anything getting 6TH online on a lower difficulty will mean you mine those BTC quicker, bringing the higher difficulty forward. It won;t impact the number of BTC mined by ASICMINER

I understand why you was under the impression. But that's incorrect assumption.
The difficulty adjustment tries to keep people earning 3600 BTC per day, but every additional hashrate earns additional money until next adjustment.
However while taking into account the difficulty was the right thing, my results were improper: I corrected only the time until the adjustment but the whole calculation was flawed.

Look. When someone add 6 TH to existing 24 TH, there is 3600+900 earned each day. The adjustment comes no later than after 11.2 days.
Then the difficulty grows to 5/4 of the previous value (the 6/5 was a mistake) and all are earning 3600 daily. The 6 TH earns 720 per day (a part of 3600) and any additional 6 TH would earn 720 daily (not part of 3600).

The ASICMINER would earn 900*11.2=10080 BTC plus 720*(14-11.2)=2016 BTC, so 12096 BTC for the first two weeks, and then (720+720)*7=10080 BTC for the third week.
In total 22176 BTC for three weeks (at most - when it starts on the day of the difficulty adjustment).

[Bugpowder]

You guys are living in fantasy land.  If you really think ASICs are going to ramp that fast and soon, you could make plenty of coins buying X.DIFF.MAR on mpex.

Let's do some back of an envelope math for the value of the shares:

Assumptions:
1. ASICMINER starts mining Jan 1st 2013 with 6TH
2. ASICMINER brings online another 6TH Jan 14th
3. BFL and Avalon customers start mining Jan 21st
4. Network hashrate stays around these levels between now and Jan 1st

ASICMINER will be about 1/5th of the total network for 2 weeks (6 out of 30 TH)
This means they will  mine 1/5th off the Bitcoins for 14 days = (14 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 5 =  10080 BTC
They will mine for one week with 1/3rd of the total network (12 / 36 TH) = (7 * 24 * 6 *25) / 3 = 8400 BTC

So a total of 18480 BTC will be mined by ASICMINER in the first 3 weeks

Divided by 200.000 shares = 0.0924 BTC per share. Which brings us close to the point where the other 200.000 shares owned by Friedcat et al will start receiving dividend as well (after 0.10 BTC is paid out as dividend)

After BFL and Avalon customers start mining as well the total hashrate will go up to perhaps 200 - 250 TH

ASICMINER will slowely build out their mining farm to 50TH, becoming 1/6th of the total network, perhaps less but will also add a new revenue stream by selling ASICs to customers.

Being 1/6th of the network will yield (7 * 24 * 6 * 25) / 6 = 4200 BTC per week divided by 400.000 shares = 0.01 BTC div per week

Valuation for the shares based on this:

Anyones guess, but looking at how mining stock and bonds were valued on GLBSE then I would say well over 1 BTC per share

disclaimer: back of the envelope valuations are not based on actual figures and the mathematician can not be held responsible should investments yield anything less than expected !

[RHA]

You guys are living in fantasy land.  If you really think ASICs are going to ramp that fast and soon, you could make plenty of coins buying X.DIFF.MAR on mpex.

You don't know if we believe the assumptions of the calculations.
But do believe me: the reading is easier when one shortens a lengthy quote while adding one line.

[DiabloD3]

You guys are living in fantasy land.  If you really think ASICs are going to ramp that fast and soon, you could make plenty of coins buying X.DIFF.MAR on mpex.

I haven't laughed this hard all week. Thanks man.