ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[ThickAsThieves]

@ tarmi, empoweoqwj, ninjarobot
Guys, you are so wrong...
Look, did you remember last time we discussed blade production costs?
(actually that's a recurring topic, like many in this thread; I guess today is just the time for yet another iteration)

So we concluded that the mass production costs for a blade should be like around $20.  That's a reasonable price if you compare it to consumer products of similar complexity (like graphics cards).  Remember it's China and Friedcat's prices are likely very close to the lowest available anywhere in the world, at least now that the volume became so high.  Okay, let's be very pessimistic and assume a ceiling of 30$, that's around 0.25BTC by current prices, and with a reasonable profit margin it would still be more than acceptable for them to sell the blades for less than 0.5BTC.  Now please reconsider if people would buy these blades in November, if they sell for 0.5BTC!  I bet they would even in December, even if most the competitors actually deliver in time with their currently announced prices.

Also note that most competitors are less likely to have production costs as low as Friedcat (you know, Chinese are very social people; the "connections" are very valuable for them so a foreigner cannot get as good deal as a local).

Also note that 55nm chip of the same die area is much more expensive than 130 nm chip.  Of course, it's still cheaper per Gigahash, but not as much as per more powerful and efficient.  Let's say, if the 55nm chip is 8x as powerful as 130nm, then it's likely about twice as expensive per chip, so only 4x as cheap per GH.

So don't underestimate the good old 130nm, it will last until the end of the year.

It will last longer than the end of the year, particularly when you consider franchising and self-farming as additional options to sales.

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[bitfair]

• We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).
• If any deal of ordering Gen1 chips from outside buyers via us is reached, additional orders will be made.
• The size of the Gen2 order will be decided as appropriate, according to the network difficulty when it is time to finalize the order size.

Anyway, this is pretty much underwhelming. Probably gonna see a quick pop upward in the exchanges, until people realize that FC hasn't even negotiated a Gen 2 order size yet, and that AM is going to war with 500GH of 1st gen hardware (which is 2 weeks late™).

I agree. Looks like AM lost their head start and is still fully focused on 130nm Gen1 hardware. That is not going to be a viable long-term strategy. Even the Gen2 products @55nm are going to be more like Gen1.5 when compared to the 28nm chips coming online in bulk from various vendors in Q4. Too little too late.

The current generation of chips are profitable to run until the network hash rate reaches around 30 PH/s. It definitely makes sense to pump out more hardware while working on the next generation, especially considering that the franchising plan means that the operator doesn't bear this risk.

[Strange Vlad]

It will last longer than the end of the year, particularly when you consider franchising and self-farming as additional options to sales.

Yeah, I meant to write "at least until the end of the year", but it kinda slipped out...

[joele]

For 500T this October, that is around BTC1,321 / daily mining profit.
So AM share price today is bargain.

[VeeMiner]

For 500T this October, that is around BTC1,321 / daily mining profit.
So AM share price today is bargain.

yeah, any price under 2-2.5 BTC a piece is a bargain...

[romerun]

"in 2 weeks"

[VeeMiner]

"in 2 weeks"

that's exactly what's not gonna happen with AM. It is happening and will happen with the competitors (BFL and other vaporware preorders) but when friedcat says it's in October, it's in October.

[BitCsByBit]

"in 2 weeks"

that's exactly what's not gonna happen with AM. It is happening and will happen with the competitors (BFL and other vaporware preorders) but when friedcat says it's in October, it's in October.

Didn't he initially say it's in September? So it's "two weeks" late.   

[physalis]

"in 2 weeks"

that's exactly what's not gonna happen with AM. It is happening and will happen with the competitors (BFL and other vaporware preorders) but when friedcat says it's in October, it's in October.

+1

Didn't he initially say it's in September? So it's "two weeks" late.  

Did he? Where?

You guys are aware though that when he says we'll get 500TH, that doesn't mean 500TH will be mining for AM? Most of it will likely be sold. Like most of the previous 200TH has been.

[VeeMiner]

Didn't he initially say it's in September? So it's "two weeks" late.   

give the guy a break

[JimiQ84]

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

I believe this refers to bolded part. Now it has been specified to be done in october.

[ThickAsThieves]

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

I believe this refers to bolded part. Now it has been specified to be done in october.

The sales have been happening all through that period, the 500TH info is merely saying that supply will be increasing. Note that blades are, and have been, available and selling.

[JimiQ84]

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

I believe this refers to bolded part. Now it has been specified to be done in october.

The sales have been happening all through that period, the 500TH info is merely saying that supply will be increasing. Note that blades are, and have been, available and selling.

I thought that was from 200TH/s batch. And now we are talking about final gen1 batch - 1000TH/s. But maybe first half of this batch has been completed, hence 500TH/s is still pending.

[VeeMiner]

I thought that was from 200TH/s batch. And now we are talking about final gen1 batch - 1000TH/s. But maybe first half of this batch has been completed, hence 500TH/s is still pending.

as far as I know there was 12 Thash, then 50 Thash, then 200 Thash and then there was supposed to be 1000 Thash. So I guess the 500 is part of the planned 1000 Thash. Correct me if I'm wrong please

[JimiQ84]

I thought that was from 200TH/s batch. And now we are talking about final gen1 batch - 1000TH/s. But maybe first half of this batch has been completed, hence 500TH/s is still pending.

as far as I know there was 12 Thash, then 50 Thash, then 200 Thash and then there was supposed to be 1000 Thash. So I guess the 500 is part of the planned 1000 Thash. Correct me if I'm wrong please

yes, that's correct. What we don't know is if those 500TH/s are first half of 1000TH/s or second half. Meaning - if 500TH/s have already been produced, or not.

[data]

Friedcat: Could you please specify where in the production cycle you are with the Gen2 hardware and what your current time projections are?

[data]

Second question: None of my request for direct share transfers have been answered. Care to elaborate if there was a change in procedure?

[BitCsByBit]

Friedcat: Could you please specify where in the production cycle you are with the Gen2 hardware and what your current time projections are?

• The size of the Gen2 order will be decided as appropriate, according to the
network difficulty when it is time to finalize the order size

[tarmi]

@ tarmi, empoweoqwj, ninjarobot
Guys, you are so wrong...
Look, did you remember last time we discussed blade production costs?
(actually that's a recurring topic, like many in this thread; I guess today is just the time for yet another iteration)

So we concluded that the mass production costs for a blade should be like around $20.  That's a reasonable price if you compare it to consumer products of similar complexity (like graphics cards).  Remember it's China and Friedcat's prices are likely very close to the lowest available anywhere in the world, at least now that the volume became so high.  Okay, let's be very pessimistic and assume a ceiling of 30$, that's around 0.25BTC by current prices, and with a reasonable profit margin it would still be more than acceptable for them to sell the blades for less than 0.5BTC.  Now please reconsider if people would buy these blades in November, if they sell for 0.5BTC!  I bet they would even in December, even if most the competitors actually deliver in time with their currently announced prices.

Also note that most competitors are less likely to have production costs as low as Friedcat (you know, Chinese are very social people; the "connections" are very valuable for them so a foreigner cannot get as good deal as a local).

Also note that 55nm chip of the same die area is much more expensive than 130 nm chip.  Of course, it's still cheaper per Gigahash, but not as much as per more powerful and efficient.  Let's say, if the 55nm chip is 8x as powerful as 130nm, then it's likely about twice as expensive per chip, so only 4x as cheap per GH.

So don't underestimate the good old 130nm, it will last at least until the end of the year.
(EDITED: "at least")

500 TH = 50 k blades = 5 k blade kits

I am not sure that you are aware of logistic and scalability problems of deploying 500 TH of asic blades. Not to mention power consummation and cooling.   

They dont have gen2 chips, they are late, and are hoping to recoup that with old technology.

[jammertr]

Friedcat: Could you please specify where in the production cycle you are with the Gen2 hardware and what your current time projections are?

• The size of the Gen2 order will be decided as appropriate, according to the
network difficulty when it is time to finalize the order size

Any idea when the order for the 2nd gen will be finalized