ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[JimiQ84]

franchising looks like 5,5TH/s for the time being. I expect one or two more transactions. Anyway, last time the same addresses sent only equivalent of 5TH/s (too bad rise in difficulty was 32%)

[conv3rsion]

I am looking to sell a 6-month, partially escrowed 50 share AM futures contract.

Underlying can be Bitfunder shares at approx 1.5 ea or direct shares at approx 1.45 ea.

The partial escrow is a chance to lever your AM holdings. Reputable counterparties only please. PM if interested.

Potential counterparties please be aware that if you are long the future you do not receive the divs.

I.e. Vycid can sell the future and buy the underlying, picking up the divs on the way. The price of the future should reflect the difference.

Quite a nice trade idea actually.

If the premium on the price of the contract is more or less the expected div (which it should be), this shouldn't be a problem.
EDIT: You already pointed this out.

Ie., with the current price being 1.5/share, and the contract being of 6 month duration, if the buyer expects a 0.015 weekly dividend per share, the price of the contract would be 1.886 BTC.

I've been thinking about something else, which simply is borrowing ASICMiner shares at a certain interest rate. Anyone interested in this? I would borrow ASICMiner shares at 50% interest p.a. for a maximum of 6 months. So if we initiate the loan when the share price is 1.5 BTC, I would pay 0.7829% interest per week, or 0.0117 BTC per week for the duration of the loan. I can close the position at any time by returning the shares to the owner. Does this have interest for anyone? It would basically lock in the average dividend for the owner of the share, at 0.0117 BTC per week.

Because it is a partially unsecured contract, the expectation that I should cover all of the potential dividends via premium is unreasonable. If you have 75 BTC sitting around in cash, you should just buy the shares now (and avoid escrow fees and counterparty risk).

If you are very bullish on AM - I expect any potential counterparty here would be - then you probably do not have much spare cash. So this is a chance to increase your exposure by 75 BTC for much less up-front in collateral (the negotiated amount of collateral for both parties is naturally dependent on reputation and ability to pay).

I don't understand who your potential counterparty is. My understanding is that it would be someone who is very bullish for the period of time greater than 6 months from now and who does not mind the fact that they would not receive any dividends for the next 6 months, but ignores that those dividends would be growing in order for the trade to be worthwhile (since the potential discount only makes sense if the price has risen, and for the price to rise the dividends must also). Someone who thinks AM won't compete well for the next 6 months (so losing divs doesn't matter) but then WILL compete well after then and will appreciate being able to option buying shares at 1.5

So the only way you lose is if AM is very late to Gen 3 (keeping the share price down) and then dominates all future competitors at that point. But if AM is very late to Gen 3, then the share price will fall and no one will exercise those options anyway.

Again, I don't understand who your potential customer is.

[physalis]

Is this thread bugged somehow...? Why do I only see 689 pages?

edit: hmm seems to work. But there was more, or did I dream that?

[SmiGueL]

Is this thread bugged somehow...? Why do I only see 689 pages?

edit: hmm seems to work. But there was more, or did I dream that?

I also saw this a few months ago, probably because someone is deleting his (older) posts or something.

[empoweoqwj]

Is this thread bugged somehow...? Why do I only see 689 pages?

edit: hmm seems to work. But there was more, or did I dream that?

as if 689 ain't enough to plough through 

[empoweoqwj]

apologies if this is old news ...

http://www.coindesk.com/terrahash-shuts-down-bitcoin-miners-upset-with-refund/


dum dum dum another one bites the dust

[Aedius]

For those that have PT shares on BTCT, where are you transferring them? Seems like Bitfunder and Havelock are the best options but I'm not very familiar with either.

[lophie]

apologies if this is old news ...

http://www.coindesk.com/terrahash-shuts-down-bitcoin-miners-upset-with-refund/


dum dum dum another one bites the dust

And soon they are going to bite ASICMINER's dust.

Guys BTW the update says 500TH soon. Do you think it means to hash with in the farm or to sell 

[AM4Bitcoin]

And soon they are going to bite ASICMINER's dust.

Guys BTW the update says 500TH soon. Do you think it means to hash with in the farm or to sell 

Doesnt matter they will receive the BTC anyway. If they can get that 500TH the shareholders will profit.

[FNG]

And soon they are going to bite ASICMINER's dust.

Guys BTW the update says 500TH soon. Do you think it means to hash with in the farm or to sell 

Doesnt matter they will receive the BTC anyway. If they can get that 500TH the shareholders will profit.

Exactly. If he can sell it / franchise it at a better rate than mining with it then I hope he does so.

[VeeMiner]

And soon they are going to bite ASICMINER's dust.

Guys BTW the update says 500TH soon. Do you think it means to hash with in the farm or to sell 

Doesnt matter they will receive the BTC anyway. If they can get that 500TH the shareholders will profit.

Exactly. If he can sell it / franchise it at a better rate than mining with it then I hope he does so.

Friedcat has been doing that quite efficiently up until now so I don't think that's going to change.

[wickedgoodtrader]

And soon they are going to bite ASICMINER's dust.

Guys BTW the update says 500TH soon. Do you think it means to hash with in the farm or to sell 

Doesnt matter they will receive the BTC anyway. If they can get that 500TH the shareholders will profit.

Exactly. If he can sell it / franchise it at a better rate than mining with it then I hope he does so.

Friedcat has been doing that quite efficiently up until now so I don't think that's going to change.

There is still no reason they shouldn't have 20% of the hash rate. If it is infact better to sell all your miners for profits thus increasing the hashrate thus making it harder for yourself to mine, that 100% points in the direction that this market is overloaded and there is no long term investment at current btc prices. Essentially once the profitability of mining comes to an end, which is very close, so will asicminer.

I feel like the real strategy would have been to mine with all your chips and get a monopoly on the market, thus locking everyone else out because it wouldn't be profitable for them to start mining. Instead they did the opposite and locked themselves out!

[Jayjay04]

apologies if this is old news ...

http://www.coindesk.com/terrahash-shuts-down-bitcoin-miners-upset-with-refund/


dum dum dum another one bites the dust

And soon they are going to bite ASICMINER's dust.

Guys BTW the update says 500TH soon. Do you think it means to hash with in the farm or to sell  

It's a chance that my credit card company refund me at 100% !

[donut]

Hell I'm selling my hardware now because even though I'll break even, I won't make nearly as much as I can sell it for.

Holding BTC is a better choice right now.

[Strange Vlad]

Hell I'm selling my hardware now because even though I'll break even, I won't make nearly as much as I can sell it for.

Holding BTC is a better choice right now.

That's because your expectations of the network growth speed is higher than that of the market.  And I agree with you on that: probably many people will pay for their devices more than they would ever mine, but that's all to the best for someone who sells the pickaxes.

Just look at this acceleration graph below, I thought 2.5%/day would be the ceiling but no, it looks like it can accelerate even faster.


P.S. chart from bitcoin.sipa.be

[g83]

Any speculations about the shareprice development in long term

[hlynur]

Just look at this acceleration graph below, I thought 2.5%/day would be the ceiling but no, it looks like it can accelerate even faster.

what site did you get that chart from?

[Strange Vlad]

Just look at this acceleration graph below, I thought 2.5%/day would be the ceiling but no, it looks like it can accelerate even faster.

what site did you get that chart from?

Sorry, forgot to mention it's from bitcoin.sipa.be

[physalis]

Any speculations about the shareprice development in long term

How long term?

The next week(s) might see some more slow but not too ugly decline. Selling right now because of this is risky though, since you have no idea on what day FC will come out with an update.
When AM gets the 500TH over the coming month -> big price boost, definitely back up >2 while seeing some very sweet dividends again over the following weeks.

Longer it gets kind of difficult to predict. It depends a lot on how the competition will perform. Judging by the past, they will all act on the professional level of a bunch of pre-school kids and not get anything done (except probably Cointerra - if I could invest in them, I would). It also depends a lot on how AM's next-gen chips will perform. Right now, we know next to nothing about them.
But either way, I expect AM to stay in a strong position at least until towards the end of Q1 2014, even if their next-gen chips turn out to be complete garbage.

I think the share price is too low right now and just a product of the usual short-sightedness of the people here.
A few lower divs and all jump ship, only to flock back when the divs get juicy again. Easy money if you just got a little patience.

[hlynur]

Just look at this acceleration graph below, I thought 2.5%/day would be the ceiling but no, it looks like it can accelerate even faster.

what site did you get that chart from?

Sorry, forgot to mention it's from bitcoin.sipa.be

thanks, just realized i could have simply gottten the url from your embedded image. that weekend beer seems to have slowed down my brain activity