ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Birdy]

You do understand that Moore's law is just an observation right? For various reasons it works but it can't allow or disallow anything at all...
And hashrate has a long way to go since it will start get limited by Moore's law...

It's an exponential increase, that's all you need to know to answer the question "Is it sustainable forever?" with no.

[moribana]

Hashrate wont continue to rise exponentially forever. At some point it will taper off and the share prices will go up again.

And what exactly is it that will stop hashrate from rising exponentially?

What stops it from going up exponentially forever is that in a finite system with finite resources you cannot get an arbitrarily high hash rate. Moreover, since the exponential is a very rapidly increasing function, resources will be exhausted pretty soon, so it cannot continue for very long.

But this does not mean that when the hash rate starts to stabilize anybody will still be profitable. In fact, there are indications that by the time this happens (in a year or so), everybody will be hashing just to limit their losses and nobody will make any profit. So I am not quite sure about the share price rising...

[pand70]

It's an exponential increase, that's all you need to know to answer the question "Is it sustainable forever?" with no.

What stops it from going up exponentially forever is that in a finite system with finite resources you cannot get an arbitrarily high hash rate. Moreover, since the exponential is a very rapidly increasing function, resources will be exhausted pretty soon, so it cannot continue for very long.

Are you guys making arguments about the word "forever". 
What's next? Talking about how the sun eventually will go off...Oh wait...you covered that by pointing out the finite resources issue...
Try to understand the context please...

[moribana]

It's an exponential increase, that's all you need to know to answer the question "Is it sustainable forever?" with no.

What stops it from going up exponentially forever is that in a finite system with finite resources you cannot get an arbitrarily high hash rate. Moreover, since the exponential is a very rapidly increasing function, resources will be exhausted pretty soon, so it cannot continue for very long.

Are you guys making arguments about the word "forever". 
What's next? Talking about how the sun eventually will go off...Oh wait...you covered that by pointing out the finite resources issue...
Try to understand the context please...

There is no question of forever here. The exponential we are talking about is growing so fast that it has to slow down very soon, as I said. We are talking about a year or so. Something on that scale. The problem is that it will slow down only several months after everybody realized that there is no more profit to be made and that will be too late.

[ninjarobot]

Unless the value of BTC rises significantly we will almost certainly overshoot when it comes to hashing power (considering all the pre-orders still tied up in the system). AM will likely be better off selling hardware (while there is still an appetite in the market) than deploying it. Uncertain times ahead.

[schnuber]

What is so hard to understand here?
Difficulty will rise as long it is profitable to mine. This depends on hardware efficiency and, of course, the price of bitcoins. So supposed price would stay stable and no further improvements were made in hardware technology, difficulty would also stabilize at some point (maybe 20 PH/s ? ). But if the prize of bitcoins continues to rise you will see a accompanying rise in difficulty.

[Jutarul]

And what exactly is it that will stop hashrate from rising exponentially?

economics.

Once the incentive to add more hash power to the network wears off, you see a rapid decline in deployment. We should see the beginnings of it early next year if the purchasing power of the bitcoin doesn't make another 10x rally.

[jeffshed]

I can't tell if pand70 is ignorant or just a troll.

end of conversation.

please talk about your views on this infinite exponential elsewhere.

everyone here knows it's going to be a sigmoid growth curve. well i hope so anyway.

[dxxw]

Network hashrate has risen to 2300TH.Who's driving this boom？Bitfury,KNC or, the 500TH of AM?

[chriswilmer]

Network hashrate has risen to 2300TH.Who's driving this boom？Bitfury,KNC or, the 500TH of AM?

Bitfury is definitely contributing a lot. The GHash mining pool is at 430 TH/s right now.

https://ghash.io/

[dxxw]

Network hashrate has risen to 2300TH.Who's driving this boom？Bitfury,KNC or, the 500TH of AM?

Bitfury is definitely contributing a lot. The GHash mining pool is at 430 TH/s right now.

https://ghash.io/

Can not access the page.

[webbrowser]

Network hashrate has risen to 2300TH.Who's driving this boom？Bitfury,KNC or, the 500TH of AM?

Don't know if http://erpao.info is official, but it still reports 47 TH/s (in solo mining).

[lophie]

Network hashrate has risen to 2300TH.Who's driving this boom？Bitfury,KNC or, the 500TH of AM?

Don't know if http://erpao.info is official, but it still reports 47 TH/s (in solo mining).

It is the unofficial but accurate record.

[dexX7]

...of the solo mining only. It's useless to watch it daily, and it's now useless to watch at all, as the growth is in franchising and sales.

+ the immersion cooling data center.

[Puppet]

...of the solo mining only. It's useless to watch it daily, and it's now useless to watch at all, as the growth is in franchising and sales.

+ the immersion cooling data center.

Isnt immersion cooling just another name for a cold shower ?

[dxxw]

Network hashrate has risen to 2300TH.Who's driving this boom？Bitfury,KNC or, the 500TH of AM?

2400TH now.

Crazy.

[jeffshed]

well does take long to go have a look at ghash.io (450th)

i think bitfury will be the market leader for the foreseeable future. I mean being a private entity and all...

I a lot of other entities are expected to go online toward the end of october. which is kind of now....it still amazes me how close it fits to the exponential Says something kind of philosophical.

[VeeMiner]

You do understand that Moore's law is just an observation right? For various reasons it works but it can't allow or disallow anything at all...
And hashrate has a long way to go since it will start get limited by Moore's law...

It's an exponential increase, that's all you need to know to answer the question "Is it sustainable forever?" with no.

I concur, the important question is when will it slow down...

[data]

With now even less shares on havelock and bitfunder than ever were on btct, I have completely lost any feeling for the true price. I'd expect it to be somewhere around 1 BTC with everything I've read, but maybe others have a different outlook on risk. With the small security of known values, it is impossible to calculate it anyway without attaching arbitrary values to network growth, probability of AM delivering and so on.
 

[data]

I just wish that all of my shares had been in btct at high point, and not only 2/3s of it But that was risk management and now it is too late I guess.