The chorus of those wanting a weaker labor market is getting louder and louder.

After the recent job numbers were released last week, Bank of America analysts said in a note they are essentially "rooting against the home team" and hope the numbers stop being so strong. As higher wages contribute to inflation, the Federal Reserve appears to agree.

“Chair Powell keeps mentioning the relationship between the high level of job openings and wage/price inflation,” Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek, wrote in a newsletter on Tuesday. “He’s not talking to investors. He’s talking to corporate America, and his goal is to have companies essentially institute a hiring freeze and end the cycle of paying up for new hires.”

Wednesday's economic release of consumer prices (CPI) showed inflation rose more slowly in April (8.3%) compared to March (8.5%). While the report was expected to have shown a March peak, there wasn't much good news.

"[Substantial] declines in the annual rate of inflation are unlikely to materialize until there are significant improvements in geopolitical tensions (that would get energy prices lower), supply chain strains and labour market shortages," wrote ING's James Knightley in a note after the release. "Unfortunately, there is little sign of any of this happening anytime soon."

TD Securities analysts agreed, noting the "report should be of concern for the Fed given price gains in the core segment appear to be spreading."

According to the consensus view of economists and analysts, shocks to commodities, supply chain issues, and the red hot (and very tight) labor market are all keeping inflation high and unpleasant. But it's the labor market that appears hardest to vanquish.

While supply-chain problems and big price shocks have been easing, "we see no such let-up when it comes to labor cost pressure," Bank of America's global economist Ethan S. Harris pointed out. Employers can't find people to fill open positions, tons of people are changing jobs, and "looking ahead there is no sign of stabilization."

In Colas's view, the only way to get stabilize inflation is to use the monetary policy hammer to hit stock prices.

“The Fed’s goal is to convince corporate America to enact a short-term hiring freeze, and it will keep raising rates and talking about aggressive monetary policy until that happens,” Colas wrote. “Lower stock prices are his way of convincing C-suites and boards to do that.”

The Fed's 'blunt force tool of rate policy'

Powell has been focused on the ratio between job openings versus unemployed workers and the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which measures inflation.

“Chair Powell mentioned the ratio several times at last Wednesday’s press conference,” said Colas, who said job postings need to drop from 11.5 million to around 8 million to get to normalcy.

The only way to get there would be some sort of freeze from companies.

“[Freezes] typically [happen] when C-suites and boards decide that business conditions have become very uncertain. The Fed doesn’t have a seat at those discussions, but it does have the blunt force tool of rate policy and its effect on stock prices,” Colas said. “Chair Powell has made it clear that he wants to see openings decline.”

The big question is by how much — and whether it will be enough to whip out the “R” word?

Harris wrote if the strength stays at the 200,000 openings per month pace we’ve seen, “the Fed will need to push job growth down to ~25k per month.”

But, Harris added, “If the labor force has slowed to a more trend-like 100k then they will need to push job growth to negative 70k. That is, they would need to trigger a mild recession.”


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-fed-wants-corporate-america-to-have-a-hiring-freeze-morning-brief-100055174.html

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So, what's the majik trick the country with one of the lowest GDP per capita in Europe, competing with Moldova and Montenegro will pull out of the hat this time?

(Bloomberg) -- Capital controls imposed by Russia have turned the ruble into the world’s best performing currency this year, though not many people can pocket a profit on the rally.



image link:  https://i.ibb.co/TtBp8hY/russian-ruble.jpg

The ruble resumed its advance against the dollar on Wednesday as the Moscow Exchange reopened after two days of public holiday. It’s now up more than 11% against the US dollar since the start of the year, surpassing the real’s 9% advance to become the top gainer among 31 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The offshore rate is up even more, about 12%.

The ruble’s gains result from a series of measures taken by the government to defend the battered currency in the aftermath of Western sanctions. On top of imposing capital controls, Russia has forced exporters to sell foreign-exchange and is demanding its natural gas be paid for in rubles. Strategists say the rally isn’t credible as many currency-trading shops have stopped dealing in the ruble on the grounds that its value seen on monitors is not the price it can be traded at in the real world.

Still, the irony of the ruble performing so well while at war is remarkable, especially as other countries that imposed capital controls in the recent past have not achieved the same results. Turkey and Argentina tried similar measures when they faced a horde of sellers in the past few years with disastrous consequences for the lira and the peso, which reached fresh all-time lows and never recovered.

The ruble took over from the real as the world’s best performer as the end looms for Brazil’s monetary tightening, which is weighing on the currency. After raising the benchmark rate by 1,075 basis points since early 2021, policy makers in the Latin American nation have signaled a slowdown in the pace of hiking, as well as their intention to wrap up the cycle soon. While the real’s carry will remain high, the spread to US rates will likely shrink as the Federal Reserve keeps raising borrowing costs at an aggressive pace.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ruble-surpasses-brazil-real-best-162446964.html

Consumers with low credit scores are falling behind on car loans, personal loans and credit cards, a sign that the healthiest consumer lending environment in the US is coming to an end.

The share of subprime credit cards and personal loans are at least 60 days late than normal, according to the credit-reporting firm Equifax Inc.

In March, those delinquencies rose over a month in the eighth time in a row, nearing their prepandemic levels.

Rising delinquencies were inevitable following their decline, the pandemic, many lenders and analysts said. Even so, the increase is in part due to increased interest from investors in the Federal Reserve, which is facing the highest inflation since the early 1980s, and what is expected to be the sharpest series of interest-rate rises in years. Higher loan delinquency figures can be a significant driver of economic activity for a portion of consumers who are under stress.

Fears that recession into the economy will keep stocks in place for the worst start of the year. This week, prompting major US retail chains for a poor earnings season, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has seen its steepest drop this year.

Delinquencies on subprime car loans and leases hit an all-time high in February, based on Equifax’s tracking that goes back to 2007.

Many people, including those with less-than-perfect credit, paid off debts and built-up savings during the pandemic, a surprising outcome that lenders at first thought borrowers would default to when the Covid-19 hit. The government’s response, including stimulus payments and child tax credits, boosted many families’ financial health.

But many of those benefits have run out. Subprime borrowers, who sometimes have lower incomes or fewer savings, are being hit hard. Inflation, running near its highest point in four years, is also the most affordable option for many households to choose from and have their monthly loans.

There is also a broader concern among some lenders about the ability of consumers to keep up to date with some of their financial benefits, including excessive savings that they have accrued during the early stages of the pandemic.

Wells Fargo & Co. Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said Tuesday that food and gasoline will constrain US households for higher prices. “We are still in the best credit environment we have ever seen in our lives,” Scharf said at The Wall Street Journal’s Future of Everything Festival. But, he added, “There will be deterioration in people’s ability to pay.”

Subprime delinquencies in the jump could reduce lenders’ willingness to make loans to riskier borrowers.

Last year, many lenders embraced subprime customers, comforted by low unemployment and fueled an eagerness to rebuild loan balances that took a hit early in the pandemic. Subprime lending hit records last year measured the total dollar amount of personal loans originated and spent on new general-purpose credit cards, according to Equifax.

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What’s your outlook on the US economy? Join the conversation below.

Some 11% of general-purpose credit cards held by customers with credit scores below 620 were at least 60 days behind payment in March with 9.8% a year ago, according to the latest data available from Equifax. Personal loans and lines of credit delinquencies came in at 11.3%, up from 10.4% a year ago. Both categories hit Covid-19-era lows of 7.5% and 8.3%, respectively, in July.

Car Loan and Lease Delinquencies hit a record high in February, based on Equifax’s tracking, with 8.8% of subprime accounts paying back at least 60 days. That edged down to 8.5% in March but was still the second-highest record on record.

Fewer people are in the subprime credit-score brackets than when the pandemic began. Some 18.6% of US adults with credit scores had a score lower than 600 in 2020, compared with 15.5% last year, according to Fair Isaac Corp. creator of FICO scores.

Americans have massively increased the amount of credit they’ve taken this year. With prices expected to continue to rise, this could be flashing a warning sign about the economy. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin examines these trends and what they tell us.

Lenders say that delinquencies are going up from artificially low levels and that their credit portfolios remain strong overall. Many refer to what is happening as a normalization, where delinquency rates return to levels that are more in line with prepandemic times. Some say their delinquencies remain below their first-quarter 2020 levels.

Capital One Financial Corp recorded a higher US credit card at the 30-day-or-more delinquency rate from the first quarter of the year.

Lender Bread Financial Holdings Inc. also reported a higher delinquency rate for its cards and other loans. Both lenders issue credit cards to subprime borrowers. Other big-card lenders did not record this increase in the year-over-year period, said Michael Taiano, senior director at Fitch Ratings’ US Bank Group.

“This is where the credit for the unnatural thing will stay,” said Capital One Chief Executive Richard Fairbank on the bank’s last earnings call. “We would expect this to be an over-the-board kind of return to normal overtime.”

It also facilitates or extends personal loans to people with limited credit histories or low credit scores, as well as increased delinquencies for the first quarter.

Upstart said its earnings call last week led to a government over stimulus led by consumers of temporary overperformance. Borrowers for recently reintroduced loan modifications are struggling to keep up with payments.

Consumers are a mixed bag of rising gasoline prices and rent, while employment and wage growth remain strong, said Raul Vazquez, Oportun’s chief executive. “How about all those mixes out. We’re all going to see in the next few months.”

https://shaksrecords.com/more-subprime-borrowers-are-missing-loan-payments/

Also, the Warriors have the home-court advantage in this series.

China's debt is no different from other countries. Japan is above 200% GPD for example, Italy, Spain, Greece, France... all have debt for decades.

Quite a few of the facts are wrong and quite a few of the conclusions:

- UK was not bombed to the stone age in any manner.

Have we thought of China ?

Let me reply with another question, why no Canada or Australia?

Russia has the same advantages as the USSR but on a lower scale

You are terribly wrong about this. The western part of the USSR was occupied by nazi Germany and most of the industrial facilities of the USSR  were located in the west (Ukraine and Belarus) before the war. Those territories suffered from a lot of destruction and millions of people in the USSR died during the war (around 20 million). Saying that the USSR "enjoyed the luxury of surviving WWII" is simply stupid and ignorant.
The USSR didn't "enjoy" anything.

for it to emerge as a superpower it would need another part of the equation, which is greater efficiency in the production of goods and services, and a better market economy.

Who knows whats next ....the war is most logical solution to keep our well beeing and financial system sustaineble.

(FIAT) financial advisors on television being guests on talk shows or Breakfast shows talking down at Bitcoin, whenever they get a chance.

How do you think China would respond to this crisis? your thoughts please.

You need space to keep chickens, this is by no means something you can do in cities, and in my specific case keeping anything other than pets is prohibited by law. Furthermore, chickens will certainly not be very productive in laying eggs if they are not provided with additional nutrition, which means that you need at least corn and grain as additional nutrition.

What may still be a problem are the diseases that prevail among birds, and if you keep chickens outdoors they are exposed to bird flu. So while it may seem easy, from the experience of some people I know personally, not everything is as simple as it seems.

Then why in every famine known to men people are fleeing to the cities and not the other way around? It's still the same even now
https://www.globalhungerindex.org/issues-in-focus/2018.html
As I said, there is fantasy and there is reality!

What formulas should i use to determine the price ?

CANNES (FRANCE): A Japanese filmmaker is shaking Cannes film audiences to the core with a dystopian vision of her country, in which old people agree to be euthanised to solve the challenge of a rapidly ageing population.   

"Plan 75" by Japanese director and writer Chie Hayakawa is based on a very real problem.   

Japan is the most rapidly-ageing industrial society, a trend that is causing huge economic and political problems as a dwindling number of younger people must support a growing army of the old.   

Close to 30 per cent of Japan's population is over 65, the majority women, and that rate is expected to continue rising in coming decades.   

In the movie, anybody over 75 is encouraged to sign up for a deal with the government, by which they receive a sum of money in return for agreeing to be euthanised. A collective funeral is thrown in for free.   

Slick ad campaigns and calls from people with soothing voices are part of the effort to get people to sign up. Handsome advisors list the small pleasures candidates could afford with the money. "You'll be able to go to the restaurant," says one.   

"On the face of it, the government's Plan 75 is full of goodwill and friendliness and pragmatism, but in truth it is both very cruel and shameful," Hayakawa told AFP in an interview.   

"The ageing of the population is not a recent problem, I've always heard people discussing it," she said.   

"When I was young, a long life was considered to be a good thing, people had respect for older people. That's no longer the case," the 45-year-old director added. 

"Plan 75", Hayakawa's first full-length feature film, is full of slow sequences with minimal camera movement.   

"I wanted the images to be aesthetic and beautiful, as well as cold and cruel, just like the plan itself," she said.   Asked how close to today's Japanese reality her scenario is, Hayakawa quickly answered "eight out of 10".   

She said she interviewed older people as part of her research for the movie, and discovered that many found merit with the idea of buying financial security with their willingness to end their life.   

"It would alleviate the stress of wondering how they can survive once they are alone. Choosing the moment and the method of their death could be very reassuring," she said.   

She said the approach would find support among the younger generations, too.   

"If such a plan was on the table today, I believe that many people would accept it, even welcome it as a viable solution," she said.   

"Most young people worry already what the end of their life will look like. Will their basic needs be met? Can they survive once they live alone? Can they afford to age?" she said.   

Instead of blaming the government, Hayakawa said many young people were resentful of the old.   

"They are frustrated and angry because they work hard to support the elderly, but they think that, when it's their turn, there may be nobody to support them," she said.   

"What worries me a lot is that we're in a social reality that would very much favour such a radical solution," she said. "It's scary."   

Hayakawa said her film did not presume to offer a solution to handling the age crisis. "But an honest assessment of where we are today would already be a key step," she said.   

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/kill-japans-elderly-cannes-film-probes-chilling-idea/articleshow/91714100.cms

She said she interviewed older people as part of her research for the movie, and discovered that many found merit with the idea of buying financial security with their willingness to end their life.   

"It would alleviate the stress of wondering how they can survive once they are alone. Choosing the moment and the method of their death could be very reassuring," she said.   

She said the approach would find support among the younger generations, too.