Rally Time  at what price will it take for force liquidation and a short squeeze? I don't think there will be a short squeeze this time - what I expect is that the price will keep being stable for quite some time and all the shorts will be slowly liquidated one by one by their owners because of the interest rates. |
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At some point those shorts will have a cumulative effect so there would be no squeeze. If the majority of the capital goes that route there is not enough left to drive up the price in the first place.
Looking at the continuation at the massive sideways movement I'd rather join them than oppose them, if any.
Their problem is that they are paying 20% interest on that. That's not very much - but it is a sure loss. I predict that they'll break one by one and close their positions with a small loss and the price will be stable for even longer. |
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Please add that this is relevant only for 0-conf transactions which were never considered to be secure, otherwise it is very alarmist. |
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That's what I am talking about - the technicals point down, down - but the indicators about bitcoin reaching out from the early adopters ghetto are improving. Personally I rely more on the outside indicators - because without new funds flowing into the bitcoin economy the price cannot go up. |
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Do you trade on outside indicators like Google trends or just news hits? Or do you use only technical analysis?
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No charts cause I'm just holding (my base price is far lower than it could drop to anytime soon), but the wall interrupted a pretty clear market movement, and the market in turn overreacted. It just postpones it though.
How is base price any relevant for making market moves (beside giving you the nice warm feeling of being smart)? |
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put your chart at 1 day and then look for triangle also the best way to predict the future is making said future  Yeah - but think what is the implication of that, taking into account that two recent triangles were broken into the up direction. |
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I feel like he focuses too much on Elliot Wave Theorem instead of the underlying technical indicators, at least in the short term pictures. The Bitcoin market is still relatively tiny, and a single person with deep enough pockets can create "waves" on charts. Elliot Wave Theorem is all about mass psychology in markets, but with bitcoin - at least on short term scales - a lot of moves are created by a single or a couple of people, rather than the mass. There's just tons of noise on the shorter time scales.
Does anyone else feel the same?
Exactly my feeling - as if someone was waiting for a triangle and then push it with force to break into one direction. It is very hard to say what really makes me feel like that or what would I expect from 'natural' triangle breaking - but well this is my feeling as of now. |
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At any given moment most people on these forums are long in bitcoins and being proven mistaken does not make people talkative.
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IMHO, the question of whether or not we are in a corrective 2nd wave or a 4th wave right now boils down to what exactly was going through the mind of whoever sold at around 5.16. If it was a genuine sell then we are likely in a 4th. On the other hand, if that individual or group of individuals shorted to create a panic then we might be in a 2nd and the ensuing short squeeze could take us all the way back up to 5.1 or higher.
And, the more I think about it, the more I am inclined to believe that it was a short since we literally cut through every major support like butter which should not have happened unless someone, with money, really wanted to break the charts and force the market in a direction it did not want to go originally.
Wasn't it was the same case with the recent push-ups - maybe it was a manipulation after all? If I had a lot of money on MtGox I sure would try this game of breaking the trend lines - it seems that many people watch them and the breaks do generate a lot of movement. It is risky - because you can always encounter a stronger investor defending the trend lines - but after some time you can more or less know your relative strength and profit on the movements that you start. |
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There is nothing here to investigate. Someone bought 35k BTC last week and bumped false-rally signal. Panic buyers followed. Then, he saw there is no rally and sold them back. Panic sellers followed.
We are at pre-"rally" point now.
Just a hazy feeling - but it is already a few weeks that I started to suspect that someone is looking for triangles and if one happens he buys to break the resistance and create a really. I don't know what he was doing after that, slowly selling or maybe genuinely waiting for the 'next leg up'. |
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This graph certainly shows the current price to be significant, if the last low was significant. Did $2 seem equally significant when the $32 mountain came crashing down? Were there lines saying "Yep $2 must be the minimum because look at these lines here"?
Genuine question...I wasn't paying attention at the time.
+1 -- good question; I wouldn't say I wasn't paying attention at the time, but my knowledge of tech analysis and markets in general were not nearly as astute back when we were playing around $2. So yeah... What were the lines saying around that $2 era? I hadn't bought into the S3052 subscription service at that point... I remember S3052 proclaiming more down moves immediately after the bottom - he only changed the foresight after there were 'up signals'. Which is not to criticize S3052 - this is the way technical analysis works - but no he did not predict the bottom at the time when it was happening. |
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I don't see bitcoin reaching out of the geek ghetto. The 'Good Wife' episode generated great hopes - but I don't see any follow up to that.
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We just issued an interim bitcoin charts and bitcoin price forecast
which makes a very clear recommendation for once  And it is very clear that people once again act upon it. Let's see how much funds are controlled by these newsletter. |
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I know many people believe that google trends are a following indicator - but fundamentally you need more people to get interested and start betting their money to move the price in a big way. Currently the popularity indicators are down. Google trends had a up - tick after the recent hack - but that was a negative news so we should not count much on that. New forum members in March are also down so far. That's why I don't believe in any big rally - it might shoot up from the triangle but that will not be a long rally - and vice versa a down move might extend massively. Just my 3 cents |
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it seems like a break through happens when some high rollers decide it is time in hopes of drawing in the sheep.
Yeah - this is also my impression. But the push up from the previous triangle was not yet cashed I think - so who ever did this is still in BTC. |
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Long Position -$0.20
Short Position $0.05 it can go even lower so why pay a premium That was my point - wasn't it? It will probably get a lot lower. |
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dont fool yourself the 10k ask wall at 4.9 is a ghost wall
If you are sure about it - then buy into them - they'll disappear, the price goes up and you earn profit. I am not looking at the walls - it is just that the correction takes too much time. |
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I don't know - but this correction is taking too long. This is just another speculation - but I have the feeling that because someone pushed up when it 'should' go down, it did not bounce back at the right moment and now we might be back to the 'long slow slide'.
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