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1301  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Ask Amazon for Bitcoin Payments on: June 20, 2014, 07:51:34 AM
Come on, Roger Ver said they'd accept it before the end 2014! What's the hold-up! I'm even betting on it!

___________Amazon will accept Bitcoin by end of 2014
Options: Yes, without discounts | Yes, with discounts | No

You stand to make a nice win, how much would you win if you won now?

Total Volume of the bet is 0.071 on BM
1302  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Martingale System on: June 20, 2014, 07:48:57 AM
I really suggest everyone not to do martingale since it's not working, but if you do it, than try using empty prerolls. Make X number of bets with 0 bet ammount and than start your martingale normaly.

That won't change your odds such as your betting pattern won't change your strategy it will change your variance and your perception on your losses/winnings
1303  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: June 20, 2014, 07:46:25 AM
on very good authority a major swiss bank is now refusing customer withdrawals of physical bullion and insisting on cash (fiat) settlement only ... this is a pattern that has become more and more widespread but Swiss banks out of gold? really? yes really.
Gold owners are getting Goxxed?
Paper gold owners

Hopefully, for their sake, it wasn't allocated gold. If it was..this may lead to a rush for physical

I love paper PM suckers.  They've been the gift that keeps on giving for those of us who like the phyz...and have been accumulating.  If/when the music stops they'll also be a big factor in causing the phyz to exceed it's reasonable steady-state value.  I've always expected to try to draw down if/when we hit that point.  Just like Jim 'Mr. Gold' Sinclair did back in the 80's.

This multi-year trough in gold prices has exceeded my expectations in terms of duration by some margin.  All it means (hopefully) is that that much more stress has built up and the relief will be that much more impressive.

But I still think that there is a very real possibility that no matter what happens with PM's it will be pretty ho-hum compared to what we see in Bitcoin if/when it finally goes.  I'll be very happy with either of these eventualities.



The sentiment on Gold among the financial world is very low, the Gold market is manipulated to a lower price than what it should be

China&bricks are buying and Gold bugs buying physical gold are not going to sell for a 20% raise, they are going to keep their Gold and maybe sold a fraction of it when the price had been multi plicated many folds
1304  Economy / Gambling / Re: THE BEST BITCOIN POKER SITE IS... on: June 20, 2014, 07:41:26 AM
Betcoin 4/5, Great interface, support and tourney selection. Only issue is lack of players.

Agreed, lack of players but experience has been great at Betcoin.  I multi-table on both sites now.  They should merge and dominate the industry.

Betcoin - 4.8 - awesome experience, more players needed
Seals    - 4.2 - good activity

Thank you!

Rankings updated 6/19

SwC is listed here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=529963.0 along with other B related poker sites

1305  Economy / Gambling / Re: Listing Betting Sites Total # Of Bets (Updated 6.19.14) on: June 20, 2014, 07:37:58 AM
When is the sport booking sites reviews coming? Wink
1306  Economy / Micro Earnings / Re: Win free Bitcoins every hour! on: June 20, 2014, 07:37:01 AM
Hello

how it works?

its like gambling? or some HYIP offer?

You can gamble (like in an online casino), but you can also earn free bitcoins once an hour (free faucet). Surely not HYIP or anything related... Cool

You cannot deposit to gamble though, you can only gamble what you won from the faucets or referrals
1307  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Why satoshi is gone? on: June 20, 2014, 07:36:24 AM
Worst case, USA probably has his private keys and will destroy Bitcoin whenever it wants to by releasing continuous stream of coins onto the markets for months on end.
We call that cheap coins. And that's your worst scenario? Cool.

Bitcoin itself would survive such a scenario, but the damage to the ecosystem would be devastating, the entire mining community would be forced elsewhere... would be interesting to watch.
No. There will always be miners, by design, no matter what the price does. And the "ecosystem" involves big holders dumping when they feel like it. Non-problem.

And what prevents miners from choosing another coin???.... nothing, and what are the barriers to another coin taking over because it is now more valuable?Huh.... zero barriers, it is software, and there are a hundred coins with the same protocol.


No coin is even close to be more valuable : the second one Litecoin is only 2.5% of Bitcoin's valuation

I can imagine a coin created by a bank in Singapore or Hong Kong and backed by Gold that succeeds to get a lion share of the market but it would not mean that Bitcoin goes down to zero; by then Bitcoin will probably be valued a few tens of thousands of dollars or more
1308  Local / Actualité et News / Re: Monoprix et le BTC on: June 20, 2014, 07:33:17 AM
Ensuite, il y a surtout la partie "prise de risque" que tu sembles négliger: Les fonds placés sur les livrets régulés par l’État (livret A...) sont garantis par ce dernier. Pas le bitcoin. Sans parler des variations considérablement plus importantes sur du bitcoin que sur un livret A, sur lequel la perte de capital est impossible

Si le rendement est inférieur au taux d'inflation réel (je ne parle pas du taux officiel) tu perds de l'argent


J'adore voir les specialistes de l'INSEE aux 20h - l'inflation c'est comme pour l'insécurité, c'est un sentiment, une "perception". En fait les prix sont en baisse depuis l'arrivé de l'euro, mais a cause de leur attachement au Franc les francais ne le voient pas  Grin



Le mythe de la montée de 20% des prix en un an à l'arrivée de l'Euro est impossible à casser

Le problème de dettes de certains pays Européens sera résolu par un haircut (préférable) ou une monétisation des dettes (plus probable car moins honnête pour les politiciens) qui aboutira à de l'inflation ou de l'hyperinflation, des émeutes voir une ou des guerres
1309  Economy / Economics / Re: $50k to Invest - Convince Me! on: June 20, 2014, 07:27:02 AM
Seem like everyone giving you advice think bitcoin still go up many folds over the foreseeable future.

Beside dotcom bubble which make a small number of early investors extremely wealthy, I can't think of any investment that will go up exponentially for late investors.

Bitcoin market cap is 7.7Billions it could reach hundreds of billions of market cap of today's dollar considering the potential

For exemple, Paypal valuation is 40Billions

Bitcoin has many other competitors out there more than Paypal. And governments around the world are doing everything they can to discourage its usage.


Lots of people think that Bitcoin is great to do payments. I'm not sure if payment-protocol is the perfect use-case for Bitcoin.
But what I do know is, that Bitcoin is great in what it was intentionally ment to be. Good for hoarding. Good to put your savings away.

Costs you 0.- to hold it over years, compared to other commodities

The clue is that bitcoin needs to attract people, but it's only attracting people if the price is right.
And the price is only right if the chart is right.

The difference between the .com bubble and the Bitcoin bubble is that the .com companies burn money every day (because they have to pay bills, employees..... ).
The Bitcoin value doesn't get burned away by just sitting there. It only goes down if people sell and quit with Bitcoin. If more people leave than enter.

I'm here to stay


Bitcoin was not meant for hoarding.

Bitcoin was designed to be a P2P way of transmitting payments that is not centralized and resolves the double spending issues with other P2P payment methods.

If you think that bitcoin is meant for hoarding then what would give it it's value?

Bitcoin is also used as a store of wealth, wealth you can move or transfer easily and cheapily without having a third party risk
1310  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Very Early Adopters on: June 20, 2014, 07:26:01 AM
The adoption rate of Bitcoin and Cryptos in general is only going to continue to grow. Sit tight and be right.

We all hope that will happen, bitcoin was on a realy insane uptrend that resulted in over 1200 $ price, but soon enough , it was followed by bad press, and finaly, that mt.gox "fall" that pushed it back.
Generay, bitcoin is still quite new, and the real sharks are yet to come to this doman.
Hopefully we get some real , steady grow, and not just push n' pull action

I am hoping that we can follow this latest month or so of growth that we have seen.  It has been more gradual than the rise in Nov/Dec of last year.   Admittedly, shooting straight up is far more exciting, but those rises are usually followed by sharp corrections. 

Sharp rises followed by sharp corrections has been the way it is going up; if next rise goes from 600>5000>2800 we should be very happy Grin Some will sold at 1,500$ thinking it is the top, some @ 2,000$ 3,000$...and some lucky ones @ 5,000$ Wink
1311  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: June 20, 2014, 07:20:13 AM

Outside of that 24 day time period there were only three days when more than 50K was wagered.
124,771
59,077
50,860

That's a little bit of spice. The investors may have a good day or a bad day. But when somebody wagers 3 million in 24 days, that is eating ghost peppers.
http://www.ishopindian.com/images/D/ghost_pepper_c.jpg


When someone is wagering 3million, you know the house is very probably getting way lower than the expected revenue

So the final day of the first year comes to a close with a big $4.5M wagered (highest since February 14).

A total of 51.9% of the wagering occurs on just 8 days with each day over 100K BTC .
Fri, Oct 11, 13   100,678
Tue, Oct 1, 13   123,961
Wed, Jul 17, 13   124,771
Sat, Sep 21, 13   140,897
Tue, Sep 24, 13   150,827
Wed, Sep 25, 13   176,993
Mon, Sep 23, 13   384,966
Sun, Sep 29, 13   1,553,358

There are 65 days over 10K BTC wagered, and a median of 3905 BTC per day. Only 6 days have less than 1K BTC wagered.

How do speculate on the future profits then?

3000BTC/day wagered so 1000BTC profit/month seems like a reasonable prediction; investors hope for way more though, the variance is big so an expected 3000 wagered everyday can turn into a profit of 3000BTC in a month or a loss of 1000BTC
1312  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I am pretty confident we are the new wealthy elite, gentlemen. on: June 20, 2014, 07:16:24 AM
First, I hope that your communication of the future does NOT change the course of history,
Don't be silly. Of course it will. We will now never see that chart.

If everyone was convinced in was indeed a chart from the future, every movement would happen sooner than expected
1313  Economy / Speculation / Re: Argentina heading for a repeat of 2001 collapse on: June 20, 2014, 07:15:22 AM
Dude we are singing from the same hymbook, relax.

You are bending the definition of inflationary to try and make a point though. Don't. It's not necessary. The bank bailouts were undoubtedly destructive. That doesn't magically make them somehow 'more inflationary' than other asset purchases. Unless you have another theory of inflation you'd like to propose.

I don't claim that it was a good idea to bail out the banks, I agree with nearly everything you said. A few points though:

Quote
it's questionable whether profit was ever made given the shady accounting that has been given to those assets currently
They bought some assets for x nominal dollars. They sold them for x + (strictly positive) y. What's questionable?

Quote
how do the ordinary citizens benefit from any profits made
Via the reduction in the deficit that accrues to treasury from the profit they made.

Quote
why was mortgage principal forgiveness never an option for ordinary Americans
It was.
Principal forgiveness is an element of the strategy that has been used to tackle the problem of underwater mortgages. See here for an example of BofA forgiving 3 billion. I agree that they should have used it more, as does Calculated Risk. In the case of Freddie and Fannie, an FHFA analysis indicated that principal forgiveness for that protfolio was less cost-effective (for taxpayers) than alternatives.

Quote
furthermore, by your logic, since housing prices have recovered since 2008, he made a mistake in not bailing out ordinary Americans mortgages at the time
Wrong, as I previously stated I am against bailouts for the same reason you are (moral hazard etc). It was not a mistake not to bail out these mortgages, but had they done so the treasury would have made a healthy profit assuming they are no longer underwater (hint: many of them are!).

Geithner is a prick, plain and simple. Not sure what you think he has to do with the bailout though, which was passed by congress under Bush and implemented by Treasury.

Quote
you should probably reread what i said

Sorry, you're right you did say 'rarely' originally. The 'never' part came from:
Quote
never is the debt forgiven entirely

However haircuts are not even rare, which is the implication of your original statement. Haircuts are relatively common. And your 'never' statement was also wrong - I pointed to examples of total forgiveness as well. However I think we are arguing past each other here, as I suspect the point you really wanted to make was:

Quote
debt restructurings almost always favor banks at the expense of a sovereign or its citizens

Once you accept default, restructuring favours whoever has the most negotiating power. The default event inherently favours the debtor, and then it's up to the creditor to negotiate as much back as they can. You're probably right in some regards, but a it's a bit weird to think that a restructuring, which always result in less favourable conditions for bond holders than if there had not been a credit event, always favours bond holders.

Perhaps you are just against credit in general?


The Argentina government took loans and promise to pay it back by taxing your citizens and promise to tax their children and unborn

To take more loans they took loans in USD, loans they can't repay just by printing new money

They ask the loaners to suffer a loss and decide not to pay them back and they have the worse end in the deal??

Loans are supposed to be repaid, I think it should be illegal to take a loan taking the upcoming revenues of children and unborn as a collateral; I can't do it with my children, they shouldn't be able to do it with their unborn citizen; I prefer a restructuration than a devaluation because it is more straightforward and less harmful; Argentina did both
1314  Economy / Scam Accusations / Re: CloudBet Scammers ! on: June 20, 2014, 07:06:00 AM
This roulette is fake im sure about it ...

You are too emotional about it, you lost because you got unlucky and because the house has a big edge on you
1315  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 15-Year-Old Makes $100,000 on Bitcoin on: June 20, 2014, 06:59:31 AM
Nothing wrong with taking profits, but to exit the Bitcoin market entirely seems a bit hasty. 

Kid has got a head start on life, but $100k isn't very much especially after taxes.

Long Terms Caps Gain Tax is something like 15%. Even if the tax guys take a cut of $15,000, he will be left with the remaining $85,000. More than enough to start a new venture, IMO.

He can retire @ 45 if he invested it wisely now Wink

His new business is https://botangle.com/how-it-works : Joined members 1304 Botangle with a B like Bitcoin; it will sell for millions once it picked up Wink

The site looks very professional. I think the kid hired staff to help him run the site.

Yes most definitely, it looks very profesionnal and it is actually a great idea and very user friendly
1316  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin listed on Yahoo Finance on: June 20, 2014, 06:52:59 AM
Shocked

Was also my reaction this is neat if I remember right and comes in second place for the Bitcoin news of the day ha-ha
Expedia won lol.
That said I am glad that Yahoo Finance is taking Bitcoin seriously enough to add its own ticker for it.

This comment summed it up
“This is literally the best news I’ve had all day, and the day is still young!” said one commenter. “Another nice stamp of approval,” said another.

Amazing to think its going by day now this might have been the news of the week a while back and a month before that.

And yet the price is going down a little bit : 607$ on Bitstamp atm

It looks like a really good time to buy bitcoins

The short term price of BTC any investment does not matter, it is the longer term price that can make or break people.

BTC being on the yahoo finance page will get more people to get interested in bitcoin and to use it

If you get in @ 50 and it goes to 500 you made 1000% but if you got it @ 120 you made 410%

If you think it is going way up and you don't want to speculate on the price going lower before buying, you should just buy as soon as you can

Doing this can be dangerous as it could be a long time before the price recovers enough for you to turn a profit.

If you think it is going down you can wait to buy or even short but you are trading then because you are thinking you know how the market will react in the short term

If you want to invest in Bitcoin and believe in its long term potential you should buy and hold; some try to play the big waves in price, it is dangerous and you need to be really connected to the market to do so effectively

Well let me ask you this, what would you do if the price went below your purchase price and you needed money (you have no other source of funds)? The answer is that you would be forced to sell.

Yes but it doesn't contradict anything I said Grin
But that is the point. You cannot assume that something is going to have a higher price in the future when there is a possibility that you will need the asset in the present.

You can think the price will have a higher price in the future and still end up needing the asset in the near future but if you only invest money you will most probably not need you are likely not to divest anything; if you plan it well and you delay gratification you can expect not to touch your bitcoins if you have a stable income
1317  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: June 20, 2014, 06:49:05 AM
i guess you really cant tell things from just 24 hours....but







this is amazing. get it like this every 24 hours

The site total profit is approaching 19,000BTC; next goal for investors will be 20,000BTC; maybe it is a good time to divest in hope of a player winning big followed by investors divesting and then reinvest getting a bigger share of the bankroll and waiting for the whale to come play again Grin
1318  Other / Off-topic / Re: What exactly is the most important thing in our life? on: June 20, 2014, 06:45:16 AM
I'd say happyness... but lets face it.. we are all in it for mighty dollar... then retire.. and focus on happyness Smiley
sex is boring... 3some eeeh.. not sure what is left ? having  kids ? is that exciting ? lol i guess people like it, seems popular :p

I think we are in for the mighty bitcoin here or sometimes Gold Grin

many find it in helping others, supporting the weak,stopping inequality..

once your goal becomes to help others instead of yourself you will find the real meaning of life

To succeed in life you have to think about the emotions of others and care about them, they will care about you and you will achieve your goals
1319  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Does martingale really works? on: June 20, 2014, 06:42:50 AM
The mathematics of Martingale are actually well understood. A typical brick and mortar casino will often have a $10 minimum and $500 maximum or a ratio of 50 to 1.
$10 first bet
$20 2nd bet
$40 3rd bet
$80 4th bet
$160 5th bet
$320 6th bet
$630 minimum required bankroll to play Martingale.

So if you are playing Martingale the minimum number of plays to double your $630 bankroll is 63 plays (at which point you will be kicking yourself for playing only $10 each time). The maximum number of plays required is  6*63=378 plays.

Now this is the important point that people forget to calculate. What is the average number of plays to give you a streak of six losses in a row? It is 126 plays for coin flipping, 120 plays for Just Dice, 110 plays for European roulette, and 97 plays for American roulette.

So choose your game, and ask how many units you will be ahead in the expected number of plays. How likely are you to double your bankroll?

You have better odds if you play 500$ to get 630$ in one bet Grin It may be less fun because you will play less but mathematically speaking your expected loss is lower
1320  Other / Off-topic / Re: FIFA World Cup 2014!!! on: June 20, 2014, 06:18:38 AM
Can be Italy, if italy loses to costa rica tomorrow, they will need to play another break or make match against suarez uruguay.

Group D is still unclear. If Italy wins both their matches, and England defeats Costa Rica (very much possible), then we'll be left with three teams at 3 points each (Uruguay, CR, and England). Only Italy is assured of a PQF spot right nowGrin

If they lose both games , they are out of the game.
Remember 2010 , there is no such thing as for sure in football.

So it looks pretty likely that Eng are toast
Eng, Spain...wonder which of the big nations is next

Can be Italy, if italy loses to costa rica tomorrow, they will need to play another break or make match against suarez uruguay.

There is no way Italy loses to Costa Rica. That was a fluke win for them.

Italy will contain them and get the win.

Italy has it's way of making a mess when they are favorites and winning when they are treated like underdogs.
It's one of the team that make me stay away from betting when they are involved



A bet has already been made on Italy  Wink They can surely win if they play the way they know how to play, I see them go very far in the competition
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