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1341  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2021, 06:29:20 PM
12% yearly is pretty damned good for traditional investments (of course bitcoin beats that in almost any timeline of any kind of significant timespan of 4 years or more).

As I had said several times, my various traditional investments have averaged in the ballpark of 5.5% to 6% over 30 years or so, and so anything that might consistently be having returns greater than 6% would be good (even though some years I did have returns in the 20% to 30% arena, but they did end up averaging out to around 5.5% to 6%.


Ah...well, no, not really.

Let's see: 12% minus ~10% yearly real inflation = +2%. Not great, just ok.

And your trad investments? -4%/year after inflation. Terrible.

Tsk tsk, JJG.  Cheesy
1342  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2021, 04:55:14 PM
OT: Me observing the second GME short squeeze/ bubble thingy...

1343  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2021, 09:30:01 PM
@Bloqport
BREAKING: JPMorgan has filed a set of documents for a 'Cryptocurrency Exposure Basket' with reference to #Bitcoin .

The filing, which lists 11 reference stocks in the basket includes MicroStrategy, Square, Riot, NVIDIA, Paypal, CME Group and more
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1665650/000121390021014251/s131030-fwp.htm

https://twitter.com/bloqport/status/1369382771089637386?s=21

Jamie Dimon is probably spinning in his grave.

I think you probably meant J.P. himself.

Jamie is still alive, but when bitcoin moons (again) he'll likely have a heart attack and die. Then he'll spin in his grave.
1344  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2021, 06:10:08 PM
I will add, people really underestimate the importance of low property taxes.

Case in point: I live in a brand new, state-of-the-art, 2500 sq. ft house on many many acres of land. My yearly property taxes are ~$1400/yr., even with all the land.

By contrast, I have a family relative that lives with her husband in Chicago. She's an Anesthesiologist and he's a commercial pilot. They also live in a 2500 sq. ft house, built in 2003, on 1/3rd of an acre of land. Not only did their house cost 2 times as much as mine + my land just to purchase, but they pay a whopping $24,000 per year in property taxes. That's $2000 a month going out the window in just property taxes!! And yet they still complain that they are strapped every month.  Roll Eyes  Tongue And because they are in Illinois, their property taxes are likely to continue going up. Hell, their property taxes could possibly double within just another decade or two.

You know what you can do with an extra $1900/month over thirty years? A fkn lot, that's what. Invest, buybtc.

In 20 years they will still be upper middle class poor, and I will be even more wealthy.
1345  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2021, 05:33:07 PM
Yeah, but there are some states that are firmly red and always will be.

In fact, I'm betting that the state I live in now will still be standing firm as a last bastion of low taxes and personal freedoms, when all other states around it have collapsed due to govt mismanagement, high taxes, defaults, and other over-reaching nannie state bullshit.

I won't divulge where I live tho, 'cause OpSec and all.

But, does your state respect both the first and second amendments? Can you carry a loaded firearm openly without needing to conceal it, without a license? (I understand some States have Concealed Carry Licenses too.)

Yep, yep, and yep (with permit).
1346  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2021, 04:26:54 PM
If you live in the U.S., here's my advice to narrow things down (which I did):

1. States that favor private property rights and other freedoms (usually conservative)
2. States that have low or no income taxes
3. States that have low property taxes (this is huge!!)
4. States with moderate climates and a longer growing season
5. States that don't have to deal much, if at all, with natural disasters (i.e., tornadoes, tropical storms, hurricanes, earthquakes, mudslides, etc.)
6. States with low electricity costs
7. States that have lots of available, lost cost land within 10-20 miles of a major city
8. City near where you will live has a decent airport with international flights

If you cross reference all of this criteria, you'll find that it narrows it down to about a half dozen states at most.

The US is tricky right now. Some states are about to flip blue, especially given the electoral changes that the dems are trying to push through right now. And even if they don't, the federal government looks on a course to hugely expand its powers and oversight. I'd avoid making any big moves for the next couple of years and then try and pick carefully.

Yeah, but there are some states that are firmly red and always will be.

In fact, I'm betting that the state I live in now will still be standing firm as a last bastion of low taxes and personal freedoms, when all other states around it have collapsed due to govt mismanagement, unaffordably high taxes, defaults, and other over-reaching nannie state bullshit.

I won't divulge where I live tho, 'cause OpSec and all.
1347  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2021, 02:47:05 PM
Sounds good...will be taken under consideration when building a custom "dream house".
The only question right now is: where?
Current thinking is to go bi-coastal (a combo of FL/WA-OR-CO; Caribbean/WA-OR or even FL/Canada (Vancouver?)...less likely is one house in US, one in Europe (London or something sunny, like Portugal).
Portugal has something good going with a golden visa, but learning Portuguese might be difficult (or not).

This is something that many of us WOers will seriously need to consider. And by the looks of it, this will need to happen sooner than some may have imagined. Bob is building a ranch, Jimbo is buying a lake (man, that sounds so cool), Elwar is into seasteading (not without its troubles, but still, he's pursuing his dream).

I'm also thinking of different possibilities. It's not easy to be rich. Sometimes not having a choice is much easier than having many choices and not being able to decide (although I'd take the second option anytime).

If you live in the U.S., here's my advice to narrow things down (which I did):

1. States that favor private property rights and other freedoms (usually conservative)
2. States that have low or no income taxes
3. States that have low property taxes (this is huge!!)
4. States with moderate climates and a longer growing season
5. States that don't have to deal much, if at all, with natural disasters (i.e., tornadoes, tropical storms, hurricanes, earthquakes, mudslides, etc.)
6. States with low electricity costs
7. States that have lots of available, lost cost land within 10-20 miles of a major city
8. City near where you will live has a decent airport with international flights

If you cross reference all of this criteria, you'll find that it narrows it down to about a half dozen states at most.
1348  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 08, 2021, 03:00:47 PM
Norwegian Oil Billionaire Joins the Bets on Bitcoin
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-08/billionaire-rokke-bets-bitcoin-will-be-on-right-side-of-history?srnd=premium-europe&sref=6uww027M
1349  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 07, 2021, 04:53:09 PM

Well it's quite simple, with every new bull run they need a new "scam-straction" to distract the pleebs away from Bitcoin.

With this new NFT garbage, it's like the mother of all frauds: selling outrageously over-priced digital tulips on the biggest scam blockchain of them all, ETH.

They will be *really* hard pressed to top that one in 2024.
1350  Economy / Speculation / Re: Are people buying BTC @ $27000+ idiots? on: March 05, 2021, 09:56:24 PM
OP's post history shows him/her a shitcoiner from nearly day one.

Go figure.  Roll Eyes
1351  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 09:48:35 PM


I'm sure it's a neat car and all, but I'm sorry...trying to hand wash all those little janky nooks and crannies would be a nightmare.

Why does every car maker now have to have Japano-jank Transformer-ish angles everywhere?

I say bring back the nice smooth Euro curves of the mid 2000's.
1352  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2021, 01:50:21 PM
Bitcoin could prevent society from functioning and is an ‘extreme form of libertarian anarchism,’ warns this fund manager
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bitcoin-could-prevent-society-from-functioning-and-is-an-extreme-form-of-libertarian-anarchism-warns-this-fund-manager-11614937228?siteid=yhoof2

1353  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2021, 03:44:20 PM
OT: Time to rant again.

How the fuck do we not have a U.S.-based Bitcoin ETF yet, but dogshit ETFs like this exist?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/04/buzz-etf-tracking-social-media-sentiment-launches-thursday-amid-reddit-manias-in-stocks.html

Buzz ETF? Momo (FOMO) ETF? Un-fkn-believable!  Angry
1354  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2021, 01:38:45 AM

Over the years I've seen guys on YouTube exactly like this. In just a span of a few years, they've been through literally 50+ shitcoins and have never made any money.

Go figure.
1355  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2021, 03:31:56 PM
OT: Saw this reddit post this morning, it reminded me of the 'epic hodl rant' so much I nearly spit my coffee.

I guess using periods in sentences is like, a lost art now...

1356  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 02, 2021, 06:31:28 PM
Buying this dip with orders all the way down to $45k... for now. Already got filled @ $47.5k



Quote
O’Leary had always been worried about regulators coming down hard on bitcoin. In December, he warned that “Grown men are going to weep when that happens. You will never see a loss of capital like that ever in your life. It will be brutal.”

Another elitist loser who can go absolutely fuck himself.

Sorry Kevin, but you don't get to go from "bitcoin is absolute garbage" and "will crash to zero", in the span of 2 months, to "bitcoin is great! I'm investing now!" without getting ripped a new one in the court of public opinion.

He's just another asshole wealthy elite who got kickbacks for slamming Bitcoin for years, in order to sway Average Joe away from investing in it.

FU, Kevin!
1357  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 11:12:58 PM

I read/skimmed the whole paper.

Section 5, the last section, that outlines "concerns moving forward" had a doozy right off the bat, very fucking telling about institutional investors:

Quote
Capital Efficiency:
One of the concerns that came up most frequently in the interviews we conducted with industry participants was frustration about the lack of capital efficiency in the way both Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are utilized. All of the trading and financing occurring with these cryptocurrencies is pre-funded and often over collateralized. For institutional investors, this means their capital would be effectively locked up. There is no unsecured financing available. Leverage in the system is limited and operates more like a Reg T margin account where participants can only lever their direct account holdings by 100% and no more. At best, a wallet with 10 Bitcoin valued at $40,000 each ($400,000) would only be able to have lending lines equivalent to $800,000 (200% gross) and they would need to leave the $400,000 of Bitcoin they actually own with the entity loaning them the $800,000 as collateral — further reducing their actual leverage.  Many institutional investors seek much higher velocity of leverage on their money, often putting down as little as 10% in certain investments in order to have access to a much larger exposure.


No 'unsecured financing' available? Capital locked up? Not enough leverage? Oh the horror! Boo hoo!

These fucking greedy, corrupt, sons of bitches... I swear.  Angry
1358  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 10:36:30 PM
When wealthy normies stop scoffing at Bitcoin, pull their head out of their ass, and start paying real attention:


https://twitter.com/DanielSLoeb1/status/1366363034927722501
1359  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 10:24:47 PM
Perhaps old news, but good article.

https://decrypt.co/55120/value-investor-bill-miller-buys-microstrategy-debt-for-the-bitcoin
1360  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 04:32:37 PM
OT: Warren Buffett owns more of a Chinese electric car company than General Motors
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/buffett-owns-more-of-chinese-electric-car-maker-byd-than-general-motors.html

Also Warren Buffett: "Never bet against America"  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes
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