I expect a denial of service of bitcointalk.org soon.
When the site bogs down, it is merely Eternal September. A mere sign that retail FOMO has started. DDOS would be a sign that another exponential run is ending. Unlikely at this point. Corrections, dips, will still be fairly deep and long, which is a good thing. IMHO the bull market is not fully established yet (only 75% probability), plenty of doubters, not so much FOMO. ..which is also a good thing btw. |
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April 1st: $4100
Now: $8200+
That escalated rather quickly.
2x in 6 weeks? hm.... when real fomo is here we will do 2x in one week....  True... but we don't want to get there too quickly, because it will be the end of the Bull Market. Smaller steadier rises have longevity. The accelerating moves always happen at the end, and are followed by long downtrends. |
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Barry Silbert saying he hears 60 minutes is doing a big piece on Bitcoin this week.
Well, that's the end of this rally then. It was good while it lasted. The memory of it will keep hodlers warm for a few months ! |
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.....
You're comment reminded me of a conversation I had with a no-coiner a few summers back. He was certainly a negative nancy to all my comments about bitcoin. Finally it came down to me asking him "so would you ever consider buying some bitcoin?", to which he replied "yes, but not until it has become commonplace, and less volatile."
And so I says, that may not happen until it has reached $ 1 million, are you sure you'd wait until then? And his response was "yes". ...
He may have been serious, or maybe just spiteful, its tough to say. The best analysis I have of this is to compare it to the invention of the telephone. There are some that would buy it right away, to have the newest thing, and then there are some that would wait until everyone has a phone before buying it, because why would you own it if hardly anyone you knew had one. I realize the differences between these two inventions, but I'm just trying to rationalize of waiting to buy bitcoin at $ 1 million.
It might just be that some are happy to wait until it becomes a household item like a telephone, or a teapot, and they have no interest in making extra money on its path to that end.
I would say his responses are more indicative of his fear of loss as well as need to stay with the herd. Many people exhibit this irrational response to a highly speculative investment. They are not willing to risk any small loss, even for the prospect of a very large gain. 'Safety' in that type of view, is worth more than any potential reward from a gamble. |
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Actually, we would be quite lucky if BTC prices were to rise to $20k within the next 365 days.... More likely scenarios would be at least over 500 days.
I would love to be proven wrong, but it seems quite fantastical and pie in the sky for anyone to be seriously expecting the BTC price to go up to $20k in 45 days, absent some real fantastical and unexpected developments.
This is really obvious to anyone with a bit of logical thought. Of course predictions cannot be certain, but the probabilities of these more extreme bullish pronouncements are very small. I suppose it is one reason why so many ppl will always fail at trading : they get caught-up in manias and buy/sell at the wrong moment..... but it is comforting to have these flights of fancy ! |
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I stand by my statement, too, and I had asserted that you had predicted too early.... even though you ended up being correct... so nothing wrong with either of that.
We are at least seeming to agree, currently, that signs of UP are looking much better now than they had been, in any event.
Spot on... and thanks, I do actually value your type of critique ! |
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On the bright side of things we need to get a small number of 25-30ish percent corrections under our belt as we march to 100k, so if we get the first one here then that is some serious progress. Really looking forward to the crash from 25k to 17.5k 25-30% from 7400 is around 5000. There may be some good support at 6k, but if that fails then 5k is a good level to build from. Time is in some ways more important than price. Support levels are created through trade and time spent at a particular level. I am hopeful that 6k will hold, but 5k would not be so bad. Although I don't trade, I would think it prudent for those who took profits at ~7300 to buy at least half back when it gets to 6300. Whoaza, Majormax. Turning into a BIGGER bull than me. hahahahaha I am not turning into anything. Have always been exactly the same in my views. There is still a possibilty of a sub 2k low this year (see above), but I would put it at maybe 10% now. I believed the bull was over, and we had entered a bear market when I posted in Jan 2018 , and I now believe that the balance of probabilities is that bear market is ending. As I said back in Feb 2018, a Bear low of 2k to 3k would seem about right. edit : but I trust you will put me right if you believe I'm changing ! |
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I believe manipulation is in full effect currently as these exchanges are trying to cover their butts to liquidate leveraged shorts that have been stacking. As a result this will extend the length of our current bear market, cause a much faster and harder drop and possibly take us to lows lower than previously expected by even the most bearish of bears. Sleep tight!  Looking at a low later this year of sub 2k ? Low probability IMV . |
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On the bright side of things we need to get a small number of 25-30ish percent corrections under our belt as we march to 100k, so if we get the first one here then that is some serious progress. Really looking forward to the crash from 25k to 17.5k 25-30% from 7400 is around 5000. There may be some good support at 6k, but if that fails then 5k is a good level to build from. Time is in some ways more important than price. Support levels are created through trade and time spent at a particular level. I am hopeful that 6k will hold, but 5k would not be so bad. Although I don't trade, I would think it prudent for those who took profits at ~7300 to buy at least half back when it gets to 6300. |
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7300$  Any predictions where the price will stop growing?  Investors will fall to the FOMO soon. No, but a pullback to 6200 would be very likely in the medium term, in order to test support. That gives a 15% edge from here, to increase a traders stash. Of course could go higher than $7300, but the low 6k's will need a test of some kind, sometime. A quick look at the chart shows how much work was done with 6k as a base. This run is in a very short timeframe. |
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But why would they go and buy from an exchange?
Something is cooking, for sure... but donno what.
Instant and guaranteed coins 24/7? OTC won't exactly spring into action at midnight on a Saturday. They're all out ruining their septums. Yes but.... I would think institutional investors would go directly to the big hodlers (10.000-100.000BTC) to buy directly from them.... Not go and buy from exchanges in the middle of a fucking weekend to crazily pump the price. Are big hodlers really going to sell now ? edit : Maybe yes, if they want to increase their stash by trading. Selling an exponential rise is the only way to do that (and get back in when prices settle down) |
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Looking good.
At some point we will need a pullback. Would be nice to see 6k form strong support.
Great news then, but as always it would be wise to be looking ahead to the next stage. This has now become an exponential rise. All exponential rises end in a big pullback... the only question is where is the top ? A buyer here will inevitably be under water at some point, but it seems more likely that this is the first proper step in a bull market. The real test is, when the sharp pullback comes, where does support come in ? A bounce from anything over 6k will be positive (looking at a timeframe of some months) |
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If it plays out like how it did in 2016, how many "x" can we get from here? From $300 to $20k, it did 66x last time.
If we manage to get half of what happened the last time, $6.3k x 33 = $200k. Drooling right now.
TA says the next ATH will be minimum $50k, max $100k... So I don't really expect anything higher.
This looks so bullish, I might break my own rules and go FOMO. I am really trying hard now.
From 3200 (not 6300) is equivalent. That gives 'only' 100k . There would be a lot of 'price work' , in many waves, needed, so patience is required. Another 4 years is quite likely (see my post above) |
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the story always develops in a spiral, the subsequent waves are longer, not the same, so the weekly trend at that time is comparable to the monthly now  I would agree with that premise, of longer waves, but not to that extent. Looking at the whole long term chart, I estimate the peak-to-peaks of 2011-2013 and 2013-2017 being 30 months and 48 months respectively. That would indicate the next p-to-p be roughly 66 months ie 2017-2023 (June). Its a long wait, but not considering the enormous amount of price work to be done: the next peak could be upwards of 80k |
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^
Tnx, I will work a little more on this, I will include username and registration date.
My point of view is that if Tether and Bfx do not end in a drama..., we'll go up to $ 6000, go down 1,000 or 1,500 and then start climbing to finish the year at $10,000, in my opinion.
Looking at it realistically, surely there is virtually no chance of that sort of volatility this year ? A range of $3k to 7k will most likely hold. Of course every scenario has some probability, but $1500/$10,000 are most unlikely in the space of just 7 months. |
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 Tyler Jerkstore can go screw a light socket too! Looks like a creepy, old pedophile. This prediction is as hazardous as saying the bottom is in 100%. In fact it is nonsense : the two probabilities are mutually exclusive. 99% and 100% likelihoods are opinions of conviction which are usually wrong. Reading most of the comment over the last few days, it seems opinion is polarised. Using a standard contrarian analysis here, the low will not be $1000, but the bottom may not yet be in. From $6k + there could be a final low of ~2k. That will make all consensus wrong, as it usually is. I don't have an opinion either way, just trying to bounce off the whole range of views. |
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It is much better not to plan on BTC hitting 20k soon. If it does that would only hurt if you are short.
Personally I would much rather see BTC just slowly climb to up with lots of sideways consolidation.
Your wish will be granted... ..just beware of the sharper dips now and again. |
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Of course, I am still not convinced that this market has transitioned into anything beyond further consolidation.. even if there are recent bullish tendencies in the past month or so and especially in the past couple of weeks.
But, projections of impending new lows, borders on wishful thinking to me, even while we cannot really rule out that the bottom is NOT in...
For example, if we stay above $4,200 in the coming weeks, then I might just switch over to considering this a bull market, at that time.
TLDR: The next two weeks = critical
Yes, this phase of consolidation is more likely to continue. Whilst we may be at the start of an uptrend, the likelihood of a new low has not receded that much (hazard a guess at 35% ?) I would add one more , possibly useful, comment : The break down from $6200 was sharp, and showed the weakness of support in the zone between 6k and 4k. This is often mirrored on the way up, therefore resistance is likely to be weak, hence the ease with which price has risen in the last couple of months. Assuming the bottom is in (balance of probability only), there could still be a lot of work to do (and time to spend) in this area, before any decisive further advance. Pessimistic scenario : 5-6k needed revisiting and testing before a new low. Optimistic scenario : 5-6k will work out and consolidate over a few more months, providing the base for a 2020 uptrend. |
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Ok I have had a bit of a look and I can’t come up with any models which support $12k+ before November 2019 at the very earliest even with front running so I am not going to worry about that as a possibility.
Logically and TA-based, yes, but how about the fuh-damentals? Was there a model in Jan 2013 indicating that in April 2013 the price would be 1800% higher? Absolutely not, yet it happened. Where is your "leap of faith", HM? Toxic2400 also drew something that might happen, plus or minus. Personally, I am a bit bored about all models that draw neat bowl like movements projecting into 2023. Where is the fury of the exponent of the adoption stick? In 2013 there was very little historic precedent to draw on. The market was naive and raw. Adoption and interest has increased exponentially since then, and the market has become much more deep and liquid. The intense volatility seen in the infancy of the market will slowly smooth out. That is another reason for the wave cycles ( bear/bull markets) getting longer. Behaviour now conforms more closely to TA standards. In fact, I would argue that crypto is now entering a stage of early maturity which can be compared to stock markets in the early 20th century, before the modern era of manipulation/overly complex reflexivity. Therefore TA would be expected to work best in the crypto era we are entering. |
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You really wonder if Mic being so friendly to others on this forum is healthy? Of course it is. Being consistently cranky, salty, confrontational, toxic etc in your every day life to everyone around you is extremely unhealthy and wreaks havoc on your physical and mental health. Study after study has demonstrated the negative health consequences of living life as an obstinate prick. It shortens your lifespan and decreases your health and quality of life(Thursdays for instance) for the duration of your shorter life.
Instead of jealously criticizing Mr. Goose for being friendly and well liked here, you should emulate some of his character traits and you will stay alive to hodl longer and maybe bag on JJG thursdays will be called off even.
Good point. Being critical of other posters' views is what really informs, but there is a good way and a bad way of putting it. The real characters of posters can usually be seen 'between the lines', in their style of argument. Ad hominem attacks reveal true anger or bias. edit: However, it is worth remembering that the really critical posters are giving us a lot of information and their conclusions (sometimes useful stuff) without us having to do the agonising analysis ! |
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