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1941  Economy / Gambling / Re: ✅ SwC Poker ♣️ BITCOIN POKER ♣️ Hold'em✅ PLO✅ Mixed✅ MTT✅ ♣️ BBJ🌟 ♣️ BIG BTC🏆 on: January 27, 2023, 11:03:40 PM
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I will try to download the windows version because maybe it will be better than using a browser, some of my other friends also recommended and said the same thing about bitcoin poker, glad to hear about your friend's experience, I will try it later  Wink

I'm using Win version for years now (don't play regularly though) and don't recall ever having any issues with it.
That being said, I don't play in the browser at all, so can't really compare those two. Cost nothing to try for yourself I guess.
1942  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best strategy for Dollar Cost Averaging on: January 27, 2023, 10:56:42 PM
DCA is for real investment, very long term so I don't think using exchanges to store your bitcoin through DCA is a good and safe idea. Storing bitcoin you buy and DCA to your non custodial wallet, not exchange wallet.

That's true, you shouldn't be holding all your coins there, but trusted exchanges are still the best way to do DCA if they offer automatic, recurring purchase options. Without that, you'd have to do it manually say each week or month, so it'd be pretty hard to keep discipline.
Then, every now and then, when the amount getts bigger, you could withdraw to the non-custodial wallet.

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That calculator is broken
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Good spot! Thanks
1943  Economy / Services / Re: Seeking campaign manager on: January 27, 2023, 10:22:52 PM
Aside from the mentioned above, check julerz12's portfolio[1], he is so experienced when doing signatures campaigns, bounties, giveaways, ann threads, etc.

[1] https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2522224

Seconded.
julerz12 seems a good guy, and I believe he's not as expensive as the other ones and does all kinds of campaigns. Definitely worth contacting.

Thank you for mentioning me, but with my health condition I would likely not be a candidate to manage a bounty at this time unless it is a short-term bounty. ...

Sorry to hear. Hope you get better soon
1944  Economy / Digital goods / Re: Selling an Affiliate Site on: January 27, 2023, 10:16:47 PM
Can you DM me in telegram- @LT_Mouse

I'll send it soon. Thank you.

You might as well post any details here. If you don't want to share url, then you could still post some basic info and stats, i.e. monthly traffic, average revenue, how much you expect to sell it for etc.

It's hard for anyone to even say if they're interested if you only disclose the type of business.
Just saying
1945  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Betting strategy question on: January 27, 2023, 10:02:52 PM
... I have seen that the AI now It is widely used, of course some use some AI tools that allow them to make predictions, I don't know how accurate they are, but if we look at this data they can be much more precise, what I wonder is, it will be that in the future this will be ''Competition for betting platforms?'' Are we facing a possible formula to win all the time? even in sports?

Nah. As long as the casinos have mathematical advantage - AI won't be a problem. Plus, casinos could also use AI to determine the best rates etc and identify any vulnerabilities in their systems.

To come up with a good strategy, you don't really need AI (defined as something that can "learn" on its own), all you need is a good system of processing and analysing data (i.e. for the sports bets) to help you detect any positive value bets or arbitrage opportunities.

But you gave me the idea of just asking Chat GPT the question from the OP:

Prompt:
Quote
If I can bet on a single, non-repetetive dye roll (choosing a number between 1-6), but if I win I get paid x12 of my stake (instead of x6).
What's the best way to determine a stake for such bet, expressed as a percentage of a bankroll
Chat GPT reply:
Quote
The best way to determine a stake for such a bet would be to use the Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that helps to determine the optimal amount to bet in order to maximize your long-term growth rate of your bankroll. The formula is as follows: (bp - (1-b)(1/r)) / b, where b is the probability of winning the bet, p is the payout ratio, and r is the probability of losing the bet. In this case, b would be 1/6, p would be 12, and r would be 5/6. By plugging these numbers into the formula, you can determine the optimal percentage of your bankroll to bet on a single roll of the die.
Well, we already know that.

This topic already received tons of reply for a simple inquiry and most of the new discussion / new post is already off-topic to the one that OP is asking. Maybe it’s time to lock the thread since this topic already have 7 pager for a single question about betting strategy that already discussed on 1 to 2 page of this thread.
So you replied to say there are too many replies heh
I'm not locking it, it will die its natural death eventually. And there's nothing wrong with having side discussions, they could be interesting too.
1946  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: I managed to invite 1 of my friends to invest in bitcoin on: January 26, 2023, 11:39:33 PM
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because honestly I myself am still a beginner. what do you think everything i do
is it wrong or not?

Guess who's gonna be to blame if:
- he buys btc and the price goes down
- he starts trading alts and loses money
- the exchange gets FTXed
- he gets hacked etc?

Yup. You.

By all means, do explain to people how btc and crypto work, if you have the knowledge and they are showing interest, but do not go around giving investment advice.
1947  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Binance P2P - any experience/opinions? on: January 26, 2023, 11:10:04 PM
Yes, they can fake screenshots but you can also send your videos or screenshots as proof that you didn't receive it and provide more data like bank transactions pulled out from your bank account or I think Binance support will request data from your bank account to check if you actually receive a transaction or not. And take note this is their top priority fake images are not allowed and only you to decide if you allow this transaction or report it.
And honestly, all your question that you need is already on Binance why not explore their support area and faqs?

Check this one "All You Need to Know About the Binance P2P Appeals Process"

I sell there but I never experienced such an issue yet I don't just randomly sell to anyone there I only sell to someone with 98% positive reviews to make sure I'm dealing with trusted buyer.

Thanks, but I've seen the page you linked and there aren't many details there regarding the types of proofs they accept. This is pretty much all there is:
Quote
2, Attach relevant proof like proof of payment or no payment being made, don't attach a screenshot of conversations with the counterparty as proof of payment.

So what would be a valid proof of payment, or even better, a proof of no payment? Fiat transactions are not made on a public blockchain, so they'll have to rely on some sort of statements, which many payment apps like Revolut or PayPal won't produce on demand (other than some csv data export), or on said screenshots (or videos of them), all are easy to fake with no effort. The below took me 10 seconds to produce by modifying the source code.


1948  Local / Polski / Re: 🏆 🌟 2022 Roczna analiza aktywności i meritów Local Boards 🌟 on: January 26, 2023, 10:39:43 PM
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ale życzę powodzenia, na pewno przyda sie ktos kto zacheci innych do rozmowy

Dzięki. Postaram się.

.. Nie doceniasz efektu sprzężenia zwrotnego. Im więcej piszesz tym więcej poruszasz wątków na które też i inni będą się wypowiadać. Jakby tu nikogo nie było, to pewnie nie miałbym 400 postów a max 5. Jakby były tłumy to pewnie i 1000 nie stanowiłoby problemu.

Niby tak, ale z drugiej strony takie niszowe, spokojne pod-fora też mają swój urok i czasem fajny klimat gdzie praktycznie wszyscy aktywni użytkownicy się znają nawzajem. Fajna odskocznia od zaspanowanych głownych forów.


A że się bawię excelem, to wrzucam jeszcze roczną liczbę postów od początku:



I z ciekawostek, 1szy post na Polskim Smiley:

Dziwne, że dotąd nie ma polskiego Smiley
1949  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best strategy for Dollar Cost Averaging on: January 26, 2023, 10:04:40 PM
This could be a great interpretation but then again, its not guaranteed as the market is very volatile and risky, probably the risk with the top coins are lower compare to the other altcoins.

This topic is not about whether Bitcoin (or other assets) is risky or not, but about the best way of doing the DCA. The simulation I ran shows that it makes very little difference whether it's daily, weekly or monthly.

My option could be a monthly basis, this can be more practical especially if you have limited funds.

Funds being limited is irrelevant here. Instead of buying monthly, you could split the same amount and buy weekly or daily, but again, it doesn't really matter.
1950  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best strategy for Dollar Cost Averaging on: January 26, 2023, 09:49:12 PM
Run a quick simulation on dcabtc.com, results are not surprising, buying frequency made very little difference. The results for "monthly" are a bit distorted as the site doesn't allow to enter $ amount with decimals, so used $30 instead of $30.4.

                    3 years9 years
$1 daily$2,112$130,873
$7 weekly$2,141$131,053
$30 monthly$2,169$130,833
1951  Economy / Economics / Re: Success in finance and investment is a journey of finding your true self on: January 25, 2023, 11:35:08 PM
That's a long way of saying "stop playing vidya and get to work!"  Grin.

I like your angle, but you can't just switch from gaming to constructive stuff, as they're more different than similar. Gaming is very stimulating, gives you a dopamine boost etc, it's an instant (usually undeserved) reward. The 'constructive stuff' is about delayed gratitude, to be successful in it, you need to learn to calm down and not look for constant dopamine stimulation (look up dopamine detox).

But it's also possible to re-wire your brain to start taking pleasure from doing the 'boring' but useful stuff.

Lack of purpose and dissatisfaction with the current world is also a reason why so many people (esp. young men) decide to check-out from society, by taking a minimum effort it takes to pay the bills and survive and just focussing on gaming. Why take any effort if there's no worthy reward in sight?
1952  Economy / Digital goods / Re: Sample invoice crypto payments on: January 25, 2023, 09:23:57 PM
I think you're asking for too much. I can't even think of any business that would require regular payments in that specific bracket, that would issue invoices, and that would accept bitcoin or other cryptos directly. If you have any particular services in mind - share them.

And any invoice payments would include the name of either a person or a business - so what use would it be to you?
1953  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Best strategy for Dollar Cost Averaging on: January 25, 2023, 09:12:13 PM
The point of DCA is that it doesn't really matter if you do it weekly or monthly. I'd say make it depend on transaction fees: if you buy small amounts, too can save money by buying slightly larger amounts less often.

Not quite, if your goal is to get a true average, than buying as often as possible would be the best way to do it. But it's not very practical and yes, fees can get in the way - unless they're purely determined as a percentage of transaction, in which case they're irrelevant.

The most convenient way, for someone who gets their primary income from employment, would be to set a recurring buy on the day of your pay day, or shortly after.

But as much as DCA is a simple concept, it's proven to be less effective on average than timing the market (i.e. buying a bit more on what looks like a bottom, and bit less on what looks like the top).
1954  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: EU Votes To Allow Banks Hold 2% Of Capital In Bitcoin on: January 25, 2023, 09:00:47 PM
The Bitcoinist article headline makes it sound like a great news, but if I understand this right, they are only imposing restrictions on the maximum banks are allowed to hold (and introducing free capital/crypto ratio requirement).

Quote
Already last year, the BIS Basel Committee warned against cryptocurrencies. Since then, banks have been advised to allocate a maximum of 1% of their total assets to cryptocurrencies.

This suggests that the banks were already allowed (or not prohibited) from holding crypto, with the "1%" being only a recommendation. That being said, I don't recall of any major bank having any cryptos on their balance sheets.
1955  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Binance P2P - any experience/opinions? on: January 25, 2023, 08:45:55 PM
If you are planning to be a P2P seller in Binance they have requirements you must be an active buyer on their P2P exchange within 30 days before you can able to post ads as a seller.

Not a problem at all, I could do that.

About the security for the seller, the screenshot is required as proof that the seller send the amount to the buyers but if the buyer or seller didn't receive any transaction you can dispute/appeal and later binance support will assist you.

I know I'm probably overthinking this, but isn't that a problem? Screenshots are easy to fake (right-click, inspect, change code etc). You could make hundreds of successful trades as a seller, but if one scammer gets Binance to decide in their favour based on fake screenshot - that could put you in negative. So I guess it all boils down to how good/effective Binance resolution system is.

And the time is also mentioned, maximum 15 minutes is given within which the transaction will be completed.

I think that 15 minutes is not a set in stone rule, but every merchant can set their own max time. At least that's what I've read on binance.

1956  Other / Meta / Re: Forum activity by year - Chart 2009-2022 on: January 25, 2023, 08:38:16 PM
almost 90% of bitcointalk users are inactive on forums in 2022, will they ever be active again?
or they completely quit the forum.

This metric (true or not) doesn't really say anything. Number of accounts doesn't represent number of actual users. In the "pre-merit" era, account farming was a big thing. And it's quite normal that a lot of people would just quickly create an account only for one-time use purpose and never come back, this is not unique to bitcointalk.

maybe people who are active on the forum in 2018 are just following along with what's trending, they just want to know what's interesting in this forum, and after they get bored, then slowly stop again from the forum.
Don't take it seriously, I'm just assuming.

That's also a normal cycle, very few people would have consistent level of activity throughout their lives. People join, leave, come back again etc. Normal thing.

Although total posts are greatly decreased after 2018, but I'm just curious does it's really good for the forum?

Not really, iirc the level of spam was becoming unbearable. That's what you get when when you provide incentive to posting (bounty campaigns etc) without any quality expectations. It was not uncommon to see i.e. someone just copying someone else's reply from the middle of the thread and posting as their own. Many such cases.

As mentioned above, ICO dying natural death helped the most, I would imagine implementing the merit system played a good part, but it was introduced at the beginning of 2018 so if it had any effect, it was delayed in time.
1957  Other / Meta / Re: Forum activity by year - Chart 2009-2022 on: January 24, 2023, 11:59:38 PM
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Airdrops and bounties were so profitable to bounty hunters at that time, and it's probably a period where there was a very high account registration rate ever. It took a lot of time in 2018 for so many to realize that the bear market had set in after the rally.
...

Heh, I completely forgot about that. You're probably spot on here.
Those were the golden times when you could just quickly put together a lousy website, create a token, and then use it to pay desperate 3rd worlders to hype it up, creating value at zero cost.
1958  Economy / Gambling / Re: ▄■▀■▄ 🌟BITVEST.io🌟 💰WIN BY 🔶PLAY 📈INVEST➡🔺🎲🎰🔲 | BET CONTEST ▄■▀■▄ on: January 24, 2023, 11:35:37 PM
Hey, I'm trying to assess if this site is worth putting a few sats in as an investment in the bankroll.

I scanned through the latest posts and see there was some drama going on. Could anyone give me a quick rundown on the condition of BitVest, to save me hours of reading through all that?

Are there any stats that would allow calculating expected profitability, i.e. average weekly amount wagered for each currency? And does the "average bankroll" represent an actual amount held or is multiplied by the investors' margin?
1959  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Which company will be next to accept Bitcoin? on: January 24, 2023, 11:18:34 PM
I would be more than happy to just see my local grocery supermarket accept crypto for a start instead of dreaming about some big name accepting crypto.
...

People here often say that, but would you actually make regular Bitcoin payments for everyday grocery shopping? That only makes sense when you get your primary earnings in bitcoin, but that's only the case for very few people even within the bitcoin space itself. No one is really going to buy BTC for fiat just to spend it in store.


And since we have quite a few crypto-powered payment cards available, does it really matter if a grocery store accepts bitcoin (and immediately exchanges it to fiat), if you can pay directly from your bitcoin balance with such card anyway? I'm guessing the difference is it requires 3rd party and KYC.
1960  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Binance P2P - any experience/opinions? on: January 24, 2023, 11:02:50 PM
Big thanks to everyone who replied for your feedback. Didn't realise that P2P trading was so popular on this forum and that so many people here use it.

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It's the other way around, p2p in binance is way cheaper they don't have fees (as of the moment), and there are lots of options you can choose from payment methods (e.g. banks, wallets) to buy/sell order rates.
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Well, it may be cheaper for some, but, in general, sellers must be charging more than what they're buying for, otherwise, their business is not sustainable.

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Just make sure to deal only with highly rated buyers/sellers to avoid any kind of troubles.
...

From the seller's perspective, does it actually matter if a buyer is highly rated or not? Are buyers actually rated as well?


What concerns me is:
To my understanding, Binance is locking the crypto to make sure the buyer receives it. But is there any similar security feature for sellers? If buyers are sending fiat directly to sellers, what happens when the buyer says he has sent the payment but the seller didn't receive anything? I'm guessing Binance would require some sort of proof from the buyer that he indeed sent the money - but what would that proof be? A screenshot? That can be easily faked. Or are fiat transactions also going via Binance? What am I missing here?
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