This game will be good for those whale crypto holders on social that wants to compete to each other. They can use this game to beat each other and proved who's the bigger whale. I believe those people is the main target of this game.
Yeah, I'm sure whales from all over the world will be super excited to just transfer their entire stash to a wallet controlled by some anonymous guy who previously posted fake and nonsensical stuff on his "about me" page. And the best he could offer to escrow was BTC0.05 (for all the rounds and games), which didn't even happen. ...
I was in discussion with the guy who came up with the idea for the game. We have decided to make an 0.05 BTC escrow with a more trusted member.
...
How's that escrow coming along, OP? |
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Current number of post (Including this one): 4,754
Rank: Legendary
bech32 address: bc1q79vqvnghljgu926g7gtuhnncq560kc24cur43t
Merit earned in the last 120 days: 7 (this was earned in the last 13 days as I was away from the forum for over 2 years)
I'll wear the signature/avatar once accepted (and will update the starting post count)
I will edit this post and cross out the above if accepted spot in another campaign.
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That's an interesting topic. Watching to see how it unfolds. I realized before that Im always winning huge amount on slot whenever my gambling account is inactive for a long time compared when my account is actively playing slots in daily basis. I have 3 different casino account and all of them gave me same huge win when I first time play slot on same game. But now Im consistently on lose stroke for more than a month in daily basis on all of my 3 account with same slot game.
[snip]
I might do this for a year or more to gather more accurate data for my experiment. ...
[snip]
But how will you know if your theory is true? By making a constant profit in those sessions? If that casino allows you to create multiple accounts then there's no need to do it for an entire year, just play from multiple accounts and you can shorten the time significantly. To get truly meaningful results, it'd be best to have some sort of "control group" to compare against. i.e. few accounts that play X number of regular sessions (say every one or 2 days) and a few accounts that play the same number of sessions but for a longer time with a 1-month break in between. Then you could just compare the profitability of those 2 groups. And 14 days sessions seem a bit long. You could probably reduce them to not more than 7 days unless there's a good reason you want to go for that long. God luck! |
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Neodice signature campaign has ended. The campaign is currently suspended
New campaign: [banned mixer] signature campaign. $3 for senior members per post. $4 for hero/legendary per post. Already closed now: ...
We are now full.
Thank you everyone for your interest in participating in Coinomize Signature campaign.
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Just to let you know we have a Hero spot open.
Apply please. Mention that you are applying for Hero position if not for the avatar only.
Cheers,
I'm happy to take the Hero spot if no Legendary ones are available. Signature and/or avatar Current number of post (Including this one): 4,754Rank: Legendarybech32 address: bc1q79vqvnghljgu926g7gtuhnncq560kc24cur43tMerit earned in the last 120 days: 7 (this was earned in the last 13 days as I was away from the forum for over 2 years) I'll wear the signature/avatar once accepted (and will update the starting post count) I will edit this post and cross out the above if accepted spot in another campaign. |
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Again, I'm just saying that the premise in the OP saying to 'bet once then nothing' sets the noobs the wrong idea about EV. Sure it's the right spot to take but then what? What if the bet loses? What's the explanation that it was the right spot to take... Where's the realizing EV part?
Ok.. Maybe I jumped the gun too fast by saying the premise is wrong. It's more like it's incomplete. As you may already know, EV is only realized over a large sample. So yeah..
No worries. I do understand where you're coming from. It's just that EV have a different weight depending on circumstances: for a set up when you have unlimited bet attempts and unlimited bankroll - you'd be happy to go for it even if the EV was +0.000001 because you're guaranteed to make a profit (excluding the time factor). But for one-time event, or even for situation when you have limited bankroll and can only place X number of bets - that's where things get complicated, and that's what this thread is about. |
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Jakiej funkcjonalności brakuje ci w fiatach? Wchodzę na stronę, za 30 min mam w domu cieplutką pizzę opłaconą z góry bez dodatkowych kosztów po stronie klienta. Opłacone bezpiecznie jednorazowym kodem blik. Waluty cyfrowe nie dadzą pewnie żadnej dodatkowej użyteczności dla klienta końcowego. Dadzą tylko opcję programowania, czyli np będziesz dostawał 500+, które będzie się dało wydać tylko na produkty dla dziecka i tylko do końca miesiąca. Albo dodatek szkolny i będzie się dało wydać tylko na plecak i piórnik tylko do września, potem przepada.
CBDC rozwiązuje problemy rządów, krypto rozwiązuje problemy ludzi. Moim zdaniem nikt nie sprzeda bitcoina dla cyber euro, uznając, że po co mu bitcoin jak jest centralnie sterowana i regularnie psuta (inflacjonowana) alternatywa.
Na upartego moglbys powiedziec ze CBDC moze potencjalnie zmniejszyc koszta transakcji w porownaniu do obecnych fiatow bo uprosci system i wykluczy posrednikow, co moze sie przelozyc na nieco nizsze ceny, bo wszelkie marze sa przerzucane na nieswiadomych klientow. Obecne systemy sa ponoc mocno przestarzale. No i bedzie gwarancja ze kazdy bedzie mial dostep do elektronicznych uslug platniczych, obecnie banki moga cie wykopac bez podania przyczyny - ale to raczej problem teroetyczny i watpie zeby w "cywilizowanych" krajach bylo za duzo ludzi ktorzy nie sa w stanie zalozyc konta. Druga strona monety to oczywiscie rzady beda mialy o wiele latwiej jesli chodzi o mrozenie srodkow niewygodnych ludzi. |
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As Ive stated before
National lotteries are basically a tax on people who are bad at math.
...
I wouldn't be that harsh on lottery players. If spending a few bucks a week or month makes someone feel better then there's no harm. And if it's a tax, then it's a voluntary one - if that prevents them from increasing official taxes for everyone, then it's a good thing. ... The worst thing of the national lottery that we do have in our place is that it should be tax free but those winners are obliged to be deducted with a tax on that winning amount which leaves out almost half of the winnings because of the deductions.  ... That's just silly but I think that's the case in most countries. If you need to pay tax on gambling winnings then you should be able to deduct your losses from the taxable amount. Otherwise it's not fair. |
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...gdy za naszą wschodnią granicą się uspokoi sytuacja, to i rynek kryptowalut w końcu odbije, ale to mówimy o perspektywnie nawet dwóch/trzech lat.
mógłbyś proszę rozwinąć trochę tą myśl? Czemu uważasz że tak właśnie będzie? Moim zdaniem wojna na Ukrainie powinna pomóc i pompować cene BTC, powinno robić za najlepszą inwestycje w czasach kryzysu, digitalne złoto, ale niestety tak się nie stało. Moim zdaniem wojna czy nie BTC rządzi się swoimi prawami i zakończenie konfliktu na Ukrainie czy nawet wyciszenie nic nie zmieni jeżeli chodzi o cenę BTC Rozejm na wschodzie = niższe ceny gazu/ropy/prądu = niższa inflacja = pivot stóp procentowych = koniec recesji = giełdy w górę a bitcoin razem z nimi. Właśnie Bitcoin nie specjalnie rządzi się swoimi prawami tylko naśladuje inne rynki i dobrze se radzi tylko przy niskich stopach. Miał być jak cyfrowe złoto ale nie bardzo wyszło (w sumie złoto też nie jest za bardzo "jak złoto" heh). O cenie decydują duzi gracze a nie ulica. Jak idzie recesja to kapitał ucieka w gotówke aby czekać na okazje do tanich zakupów. Nie sądze żeby Bitcoin wystrzelił jeżeli wszystkie rynki będą szły w dół, choć byłoby ciekawie gdyby tak sie stało. ...
Uważacie że wprowadzenie 'oficjalnych' cyfrowych walut typu cyfrowe euro będzie miało tak zły wpływ na kurs krypto? W argumentacji 'głównego nurtu' pojawia się argument że skoro można używać coś co jest 'zaakceptowane' to po co używać czegoś co działa niby tak samo ale jest poza systemem - czyli argument oparty na funkcjonalności; pomijany jest zupełnie aspekt krypto jako rozwiązania które ma być z natury "poza" systemem, a to się nie zmieni. A nawet nabierze większej mocy bo cyfrowe waluty będą jeszcze bardziej obnażały prywatność. No ale trend jest taki że jak się pojawi to rozwiązania, to przejmie lwią część krypto.
Szczerze nigdy nie rozumiałem tego sentymentu że CBDC źle wpłynie na Bitcoina. No chyba że: - łatwiej będzie cenzurować transakcje i gdy bitcoin zostanie zdelegalizowany lub przeregulowany to kupno/sprzedaż za fiaty bedzie prawie niemożliwa - CBDC dotrze do tej (całkiem sporej) "niezabankowanej" części populacji i nie będą oni już mieli potrzeby korzystania z alternatywnych metod |
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It seems a little hard to believe that so much BTC could have been left available for hackers to access. My first thought was that this was a lost my private keys in a boating accident type of incident. The timing of it along with him publicly messaging the FBI
Just seemed almost like theater. I hope for lukedashjr that this is some sort of cautionary tale, but everyone seems to be taking it as a legitimate loss, which is absolutely terrible.
Heh, I knew that someone will make a "boating accident" reference here. I agree his tweets looked a bit off - the one you mentioned + that "Help please" part, that just didn't sound like him. But I take into account that those funds might have very likely been a majority of his life savings, so losing that would put anyone into despair and make them act irrational/unusual. Speculating on him pulling the "boating accident" - there would have to be some sort of trigger, say he's in debt and creditors are on his back, or wife announced she want's a divorce etc. I don't think we have anything like that here, so would rule that out (for now). |
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I think nobody from this forum won already a top prize on the WOF spins but we also don't know if such a prize already have been won by somebody else. My biggest prize is winning 1 GT do winning 50 of them is indeed massive!
I think getting a rolex is very difficult especially the other big WOF prizes, I only get 5k satoshi which is the biggest of the other prizes, so I started buying some FUN to get more of my daily WOF so I can have lots of opportunities for big prizes at WOF That award is probably only for PR, just for them to be able to show watch image on the promo materials. Chances to win it are so low, that we may easily assume it does not exist  BTW on 31st I have executed around 100 WOFs and all I get was just the base rewards (50s), almost equally in all 3 categories. They had to put some items other than btc/tickets/reward points on that WoF to make it look attractive and stimulate imagination. It's a bit of shame that no odds are presented for winning each item. In the traditional WoF with equal fields and equal number of fields for each prize - the odds would be the same for each, so presenting this in a form of WoF can create such expectation. I wouldn't feel surprised if quite a lot of players felt somewhat cheated when they realise that high-value prizes have much smaller odds. Simply presenting a small table with odds somewhere in a corner could prevent this. Edit: nvm, just realised that odds are actually shown on WoF page |
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An average Joe that wants self-custody today will generate a seed phrase on an air-gapped device, so they will be in a more secure setup than what Luke had.
I am afraid you are overstimating the capabilities of the average Joe. Not because generating a seed on an air gapped device is difficult " per se", but because the average Joe is lazy as fuck. ^ I was going to post this but you beat me to it. But there's also an ugly truth, that unless you possess relevant skills yourself, there's always some trust involved. For hardware wallets - you have to trust that manufacturers are competent and that they have not put anything malicious there. For offline generated wallets, you have to trust that address generating software is legit and that address is truly random and nor generated according to some easy-to-replicate pattern etc. "Freedom ain't free" I guess. |
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And what do you think will happen if already depressed or near depressed person pays a lottery ticket with high hope of winning and it turns out to be a failure? Lottery is same as gambling, it has no difference but just a type of gambling. As always the advise is not to put money that you can't bear the loss because when playing a lucky game you should know that you can lose all or you win and smile.
They buy another ticket? Even a homeless person can afford them once in a while. But the point is not so much whether they actually win or lose. It's more about having that feeling that you "have something going on" in your life that has a potential of turning you're life around in an instant. I think that's what motivates lottery players the most. I don't expect any of them to actually have a serious expectation of winning a particular draw. It's just about that feeling of hope and + maybe some daydreaming of what will you do if you win. That itself has some serious potential of increasing resilience and lifting your mood up. That's why I'm not against lotteries. I don't play them as I know the odds are just not there, but I think they have an overall positive impact on society (I could be wrong though). |
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I guess what I'm trying to say is if it's a +EV bet but allowed only to take once then what's the point of EV? One bet means nothing EVwise unless proven over a large sample.
That's nonsense and I don't think you believe it. Let's see: You can roll a dye once for $1 but if you win you get $1 million. You would take that bet, wouldn't you? And you would take it because of its massive, positive Expected Value. You can refuse to use the term "EV" for non-recurring bets and replace it with any other term if you wish (what would it be?), but it is what it is. Again, what did we learn from such an exercise? What could one bet teach us if we took it? Could EV really be realized with just one bet then nothing? Nope.. That's why I'm saying it's missing the whole point of what Expected Value really is. The question in your exercise should be asking if we should bet the spot everytime even if we lose, which the answer is a resounding 'yes'. Here's an explanation about EV with a couple of good examples. https://upswingpoker.com/expected-value-ev-poker/Memory loss? You've already replied to that post and now you're just repeating yourself bringing nothing new to discussion. I replied to you here: ...
In your extreme example of EV above, sure you should take it, that's a once in a life time spot. Lol. But let's be real here...
The question was not whether you'd take that bet or not, I know you would. Just as I know you wouldn't take a bet of $1 on a coin toss if the potential winning was $0.10. The question is WHY you would/wouldn't take such bets if it's not for their positive/negative EV? If you refuse to use the term and calculation of EV for one-time bets, then how do you assess whether a one-time bet is worth taking or not and what do you call it? Estimating EV for a single bet helps you make decision on whether the bet is worth taking or not. I used two extreme examples above (of high and low EV bets) to prove a point. In making such decision, you will be trying to assess the EV value, whether you want to admit it or not. Even if you won't perform an actual EV calculation, you will still try to roughly assess on whether it's a good deal or not, which really no different. Sure, EV for recurring bets will give you much clearer picture of expected long-term outcome (assuming unlimited bets and unlimited bankroll), but to discard the use of EV in any other situation is just dumb. Here's an example of use of EV calculation for deciding on particular business decision: LinkYou can apply that to any event where you can define the probability and an outcome result (incl. bets). |
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Although I have never played the lottery or engaged in any gambling, I share everyone else's desire to win a million dollars right away. My father used to play the lottery, but he rarely won the grand prize. I explained to him that you can buy the accumulated money you bet from the lottery with something that generates passive income, but all he said was, "What if I get lucky and win the jackpot?" Now I see why individuals want to play the lottery because they enjoy the sense of having a possibility to win.
They share the same mindset of "what if", the kind of positivity that those people who keep buying lottery tickets and seek for that huge luck to win the jackpot. I mean, we all know that it's next to impossible if we will think differently, but since that there are people who got that lucky combination and win that huge pot. People who wanted to experience that same luck will continue to chase and keep buying in the hope that they will get that winning combination and they will wake up being a millionaire. Just a fun fact - in the UK, there's something called Premium Bonds where, instead of earning fixed interest, they offer a chance of winning money prizes. Each £1 is a separate bond that represent an entry to monthly prize draws. The winnings are tax-free. Essentially if you deposit a larger amount (say from £10k up), with an average luck you should get around 3% AR. Which is at roughly at par with with traditional short-term bonds or saving accounts. This is a great alternative for those who buy lottery tickets to have at least theoretical chance of winning big. You could buy a min. of £25 worth of bonds and do nothing, you'd still have a chance of winning every month, but you don't actually lose your money (excluding inflation and opportunity cost that is). A bit more details on how PB compare to National Lottery: https://www.themoneyedit.com/banking/savings/premium-bonds-vs-lottery-which-will-make-me-millionaireYour chance of winning the jackpot on the National Lottery is one in 45 million in a week, significantly beating the 1 in more than 59 billion chance of winning £1m per £1 bond in a single month.
Of course, you have to have the minimum £25 in Premium Bonds and the more bonds you have, the more chance you have of winning.
But your chance of winning the jackpot on the National Lottery (remember, one in 45 million in a week) is greater than if you have £100 in Premium Bonds (one in 49 million). Once youve got more than a few hundred pounds in Premium Bond, your chance of becoming a millionaire is much higher with premium bonds than the National Lottery.
Plus you'll keep the money you deposit, unlike buying a lottery ticket.
If you prefer certainty, a savings account is always the safest bet. Right now Nationwide offers 5% on balances up to £1,500 for the first 12 months of opening Nationwide FlexDirect Current Account(opens in new tab). Thats a guaranteed £75 if you put in the maximum amount for the entire year. |
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My view on big, often state-owned lotteries is they're designed mainly for 2 reasons: to make a profit and as a social tool that sells dreams of instant life change and massive wealth to the masses to keep them in line. I don't agree with this. 1.The government-owned lottery in my country is using a big part of it's revenue to fund national sports federations, not to make profits. Many state-owned lotteries are using their revenue for charity projects or funding local theathers. ... If the lottery is profitable and state owns it - the profits go to the government. Nothing incorrect here. By "profit" I obviously didn't mean a distributable profit (as we see with private companies) that politicians could divide among themselves, but an income to the overall government owned funds. So by definition, all government "profits" should (at least in theory) go to good causes that are worth of public funding. You seem to automatically give the word "profit" some negative connotation for some reason. The other angle is: the money is fungible, so it shouldn't really matter if any specific project is funded from the tax money or from lottery money. At the end of the day, it's funded by a public (government) funds. The reason they'd specifically assign lottery profits to charitable causes - is primarily to make people feel better about gambling on lottery, buy more tickets and therefore increase its profitability. In short - I'm not saying that there's anything wrong in making profits from lotteries. I'd much rather have that than increased taxes. But it is what it is - they're selling a product that offers way less value for money than what other forms of gambling are offering. ...
2.The "dream selling" part is done mostly by the casinos/sports betting platforms in the private gambling sector. From my point of view, the national state-owned lotteries aren't as good at marketing, in comparison to the private sector.
...
And yet, there are more lottery players than other gamblers, by order of magnitude. If the main reason for the people to participate is not the dream of getting rich - than what is it? Are they doing it mainly to sponsor good causes? Then why not just donate directly and save whole lot of money on the middle man and all the lottery-running costs? If you take the lottery away - what portion of participants would actually do that? ...
Perhaps the second reason for the existence of state-owned lotteries is that they keep a lot of people away from the more addictive forms of gambling. After all, lottery gambling is way more harmless than wasting your money in a casino and becoming a gambling addict.
That's like saying let's give everyone a beer to prevent them from drinking stronger alcohol. |
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1. Of course I will make such a bet.
2. Taking into account the fact that the mathematical expectation is extremely high and such opportunities are rare, I would make a bet that is 10 times higher than the recommended values (2.5% of the deposit) - 25%.
What is the meaning of the topic? It is obvious that such a bet should be made.
Nope, it's not obvious at all. Considering you can only roll it once and the chance of losing is 83% - there's also a logic behind not taking such bet. But the major question would be: what's the best method for determining the optimal wager size? So far most people would just state the portion of the their bankroll that they'd be willing to put at stake but without presenting any logic behind that. How did you come up with the "recommended values" of 2.5% deposit? And isn't 25% a bit too high for a bet with only 17% chance of winning? If not, then why not just go all in, since such chance could never happen again and assuming that 100% of bankroll is the amount you can afford to lose? |
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No I did not , but seeking for that high return in gambling is a trap or a suicide for me , I would rather play and win x2 than expecting x12.
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So you wouldn't take it because the pay rate is too high?? And if it was lowered from x12 to x2 then it'd be all good for you? I hope not, but if that's truly your logic, you should stay away from gambling in general, because it's just not for you. What you should be looking at is the expected value of the bet - the relation of probability of winning and the pay-out rate and then consider the appropriate stake if you decide the bet is worth taking. |
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I was in discussion with the guy who came up with the idea for the game. ...
This idea is not new, we had those types of games almost since the beginning of bitcoin. ... We have decided to make an 0.05 BTC escrow with a more trusted member.
If you have any recommendation about which trusted member might be amenable to hold the escrow, please advise.
You can find some trusted escrow services in these thread, they are old but a lot of the listed members still provide such services, just check if they're still active: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2439910.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=276897.0Alternatively you can just start a new topic in the Services section saying that you need an escrow and ask for recommendations.
I would not recommend anyone to deposit any funds to the OPs game until they use a trusted escrow. |
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