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1961  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 19, 2016, 05:48:54 PM
Wall is back again :-P
1962  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 19, 2016, 05:19:05 PM
The wall seems to be removed (for now). Ask side looks rather flat without it. Also, 4H MACD is bound to flip.
1963  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 19, 2016, 11:59:15 AM
In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.

he moves it back up to 'hope' to get a better price for his stack.. the guy probably got burned alot.

If he genuinely wanted to sell, he would use smaller increments. On the other hand, who knows what the hell his intention is.
1964  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 19, 2016, 10:59:23 AM
In other news the wall has stood all day today and has now moved down to 190k. I know we all love the "whale manipulation"/"whale wants to buy lower" etc angles but this is just a whale exit IMO (too bad!)

I reasonably doubt that he is trying to exit. Every time a small part of his wall gets eaten it moves back up. I am far more certain he is just playing around with it currently.
1965  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: February 19, 2016, 01:50:27 AM
Crosspost:

Quote
Chainalysis aims to fight cyber crime by tracking digital identities linked to digital currencies. The company's software detects suspicious activity immediately and provides investigative tools for law enforcement.

New York-based cyber crime startup inks deal with Europol, raises $1.6 mln

This is becoming a very crowded field. With a host of proprietary providers and software tools. Here is a good starting point.
http://www.block-chain-analysis.com/

Some interesting ones:
http://coinnections.com/
http://www.blockchainomics.com/
https://www.scorechain.com/
https://coinlab.com/
http://www.elliptic.co/
http://sabr.io/
http://www.numisight.com/
http://coinalytics.co/
http://www.quantabytes.com/

Posted and commented here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46i6hu/new_yorkbased_cyber_crime_startup_chainalysis/

Let's see if it can get some traction.
1966  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 19, 2016, 01:45:06 AM
Quote
Chainalysis aims to fight cyber crime by tracking digital identities linked to digital currencies. The company's software detects suspicious activity immediately and provides investigative tools for law enforcement.

New York-based cyber crime startup inks deal with Europol, raises $1.6 mln

This is becoming a very crowded field. With a host of proprietary providers and software tools. Here is a good starting point.
http://www.block-chain-analysis.com/

Some interesting ones:
http://coinnections.com/
http://www.blockchainomics.com/
https://www.scorechain.com/
https://coinlab.com/
http://www.elliptic.co/
http://sabr.io/
http://www.numisight.com/
http://coinalytics.co/
http://www.quantabytes.com/

Posted and commented here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46i6hu/new_yorkbased_cyber_crime_startup_chainalysis/

Let's see if it can get some traction.
1967  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: February 18, 2016, 09:56:38 PM
I'm looking for an exchange where I can deposit some XMR and change them to BTC without or with very little fees.
If XMR is falling I wanna change to XMR again and so on.
And then I wanna cash out the coins to my wallets again without or with very little fees.

Anyone knows an exchange that is able to do this without huge amounts of fees?

And without long registrations?


I recommend BITTREX. I switched to them after polo started requiring ID.


Bittrex will require ID soon as well if I recall correctly.
1968  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: February 18, 2016, 07:24:52 PM
I'm looking for an exchange where I can deposit some XMR and change them to BTC without or with very little fees.
If XMR is falling I wanna change to XMR again and so on.
And then I wanna cash out the coins to my wallets again without or with very little fees.

Anyone knows an exchange that is able to do this without huge amounts of fees?

And without long registrations?

https://poloniex.com/

Poloniex requires you to identify yourself (so I stopped using them when they started doing that). Try Shapeshift! Smiley

exchanges charge about a quarter percent while shape shift is about 1% although they don't mention their fee.

shape shift requires zero info.  I have been using bittrex which only required an email address but they are going the way of polo. everything is a tradeoff

Poloniex charges 0.2% on both sides (buyer and seller), or per trade. Thus, if you buy your XMR at first you pay 0.2% of fees. If you subsequently sell them you pay 0.2% again.
1969  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: February 18, 2016, 11:29:17 AM
May we present: the best performing asset in "alt-space" in 2015:



What are the weights of the basket? Or are they equally weighted? Interesting chart.
1970  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 18, 2016, 08:44:45 AM
This is probably a bear trap that makes people earger to sell, or a whale really looking for a coin redistribution. Still there are open short positions so more dumping is needed to cover those unles the covering will be done via margin call.

Err, why is dumping required to cover the shorts? When shorts are covered, they shoud dump to the north, right?

Yeah, they have to either to set a bid to close their short or do a market buy.

EDIT: 165-170k still seems to hold. A quick drop below it isn't problematic, as long as the candle closes above again.
1971  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 18, 2016, 12:13:14 AM
if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.

It depends what you mean by big move and and which part of history.

400->500 probably just hurts alts as everyone wants to ride the pure BTC train for now. But a BIG move may be another story altogether.

a BIG move would still have the same effect (declining alts) from $400 to $500. what happens after that is anyone's guess. hopefully the fabled altcoin slingshot move materializes at $1000+ and xmr participates. in that case, xmr could easily reach .01 or more.

at $1000+ for btc, litecoin will be first to go up. Its the main alt traded on chinese exchenges next to bitcoin. So who ever misses btc train at this time, will jump to what is at hand in china, i.e., litecoin.

 ltc has been behaving strangely. altcoins on chinese exchanges have all been exploding lately but ltc hasn't and no one can say that ltc isn't accessible in china. so i'm not sure what's up with it.

Ethereum passing it marketcap wise might have something to do with. It used to be advertised as the Litecoin to Bitcoin's gold and as the solid #2 in crypto. I suppose that is forgotten glory nowadays.

EDIT: Sell wall at 180k now.
1972  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 17, 2016, 11:38:29 PM
The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.

+1

I think we're in the middle of the period technically known as "the chill out zone".

Once shorters have reached the bar and gotten a drink, there then inevitably follows a period of "polite conversation" followed by an agreed and accumulative shuffle up to a feverous triple-top.

From there it's a question of what tunes are playing on the sound-system.

This guy also seems to look at the 165k-170k zone as support:

http://themerkle.com/technicalanalysis/monero-technical-analysis-for-02172016-pivot-zone-review/

The link is to a report on 0.0021 being both support and resistance recently on the 15 min charts for a recent time span of 2+ days Tongue Tongue

A few months ago there were a few links to the same source which as far as I'm concerned give very little in the way of info.

Disclaimer:  I am clueless Undecided


In other news, as of today my Monero house now has a garden and some fertilizer for it.  Ok I'll translate a bit, fertilizer is the portion set aside for donations.

Last picture. Btw, lending rates are still kind of high, which is a good thing in my opinion at the lower end of this range (165k-246k).
1973  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 17, 2016, 10:40:45 PM
The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.

+1

I think we're in the middle of the period technically known as "the chill out zone".

Once shorters have reached the bar and gotten a drink, there then inevitably follows a period of "polite conversation" followed by an agreed and accumulative shuffle up to a feverous triple-top.

From there it's a question of what tunes are playing on the sound-system.

This guy also seems to look at the 165k-170k zone as support:

http://themerkle.com/technicalanalysis/monero-technical-analysis-for-02172016-pivot-zone-review/
1974  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 17, 2016, 09:58:25 PM
if bitcoin makes a big move up, the alt bubble gains (including xmr) will likely be erased. this is true historically.

I don't see BTC going up. It's likely to touch base with channel resistance and then go sub 400 again.

no one ever sees it

True, but there is still this pervasive block size issue.
1975  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 17, 2016, 08:53:50 PM

I think Monero is the best anonymous coin. So I will hold some. But it will not be big part of my wealth.

Not yet, at least.

To be clear, I think that is intended as response to the "But it will not be big part of my wealth" part.
1976  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency on: February 17, 2016, 08:26:53 PM
Some interesting comments on reddit today that deserve a crosspost. The question was: Is Monero a get rich quick scheme?

Warz' answer:

Quote
If you have to ask this question, I'd argue that the answer is no, do not buy monero. Nobody knows the future of monero. It can succeed, and it can fail. Investing is risky and speculative. If you are looking for "get rich quick schemes" you are doing it wrong.

Instead learn about the technology behind monero and start to ponder which ways an anonymous crypto currency can impact the world. When you have done enough research and learned more perhaps you will feel confident to invest. Don't just be a sheep and jump onto something because people praise it, find out why they praise it.

Fluffypony's answer:

Quote
Some people don't like it when I'm overly pragmatic, but I think it's important that you understand the scenarios.

  • The most likely scenario is that Monero fails entirely, due to lack of funding / a major break in Curve25519 or some other cryptography / general apathy towards financial privacy.
  • The second-most-likely scenario is that Monero never has a meteoric rise in value because it has no fixed emission (from 2023 onwards it becomes slightly disinflationary, <1% inflation a year) and it never achieves more than niche usage.
  • A less likely scenario is that Monero does have a meteoric rise in value, not due to artificially limited emission, but due to some uptake in its use (ie. it is priced based on utility, not based on artificial scarcity).
  • Perhaps the least likely (at this stage anyway) is that Bitcoin flounders and collapses at a time when Monero has achieved a degree of maturity in its development, and there is an in-rush of former Bitcoin holders (well, those whose FOMO is greater than their fear that the tail emission will never make them "rich").

Given these scenarios, if you have limited funds I would advise that you DON'T buy any Monero. If you are not comfortable with the massive risk you are taking, then DON'T buy Monero. If you want to play around with Monero then DO buy a very small amount (I assume $10 wouldn't be too much of a hit).

If you have read up on all the aspects of Monero, and are completely familiar with and comfortable with the risks, then I would suggest taking a different strategy than sinking a large portion of your paycheck in: rather buy a little bit every month, but buy it consistently. If Monero evaporates you will have lost relatively little, if it stays somewhat stable you will have lost nothing, and if it has a meteoric rise your then-cheap stash will be worth substantially more.

However: if you choose to do the latter and buy some Monero to hold, remember that you are very much able to influence your investment's fate. If you expect to sit back and for Monero to magically rise, that is very unlikely to happen. If, however, you get involved and see what you can do to build up the burgeoning Monero economy, that is beneficial for you and for Monero. If you are not a developer, then you can still contribute content and fixed on the website - start by checking out the Monero community Trello board (/u/stefioan will help you with details, if you're interested).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/468qwv/is_monero_a_get_rich_quick_scheme/
1977  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 17, 2016, 08:25:28 PM
Some interesting comments on reddit today that deserve a crosspost. The question was: Is Monero a get rich quick scheme?

Warz' answer:

Quote
If you have to ask this question, I'd argue that the answer is no, do not buy monero. Nobody knows the future of monero. It can succeed, and it can fail. Investing is risky and speculative. If you are looking for "get rich quick schemes" you are doing it wrong.

Instead learn about the technology behind monero and start to ponder which ways an anonymous crypto currency can impact the world. When you have done enough research and learned more perhaps you will feel confident to invest. Don't just be a sheep and jump onto something because people praise it, find out why they praise it.

Fluffypony's answer:

Quote
Some people don't like it when I'm overly pragmatic, but I think it's important that you understand the scenarios.

  • The most likely scenario is that Monero fails entirely, due to lack of funding / a major break in Curve25519 or some other cryptography / general apathy towards financial privacy.
  • The second-most-likely scenario is that Monero never has a meteoric rise in value because it has no fixed emission (from 2023 onwards it becomes slightly disinflationary, <1% inflation a year) and it never achieves more than niche usage.
  • A less likely scenario is that Monero does have a meteoric rise in value, not due to artificially limited emission, but due to some uptake in its use (ie. it is priced based on utility, not based on artificial scarcity).
  • Perhaps the least likely (at this stage anyway) is that Bitcoin flounders and collapses at a time when Monero has achieved a degree of maturity in its development, and there is an in-rush of former Bitcoin holders (well, those whose FOMO is greater than their fear that the tail emission will never make them "rich").

Given these scenarios, if you have limited funds I would advise that you DON'T buy any Monero. If you are not comfortable with the massive risk you are taking, then DON'T buy Monero. If you want to play around with Monero then DO buy a very small amount (I assume $10 wouldn't be too much of a hit).

If you have read up on all the aspects of Monero, and are completely familiar with and comfortable with the risks, then I would suggest taking a different strategy than sinking a large portion of your paycheck in: rather buy a little bit every month, but buy it consistently. If Monero evaporates you will have lost relatively little, if it stays somewhat stable you will have lost nothing, and if it has a meteoric rise your then-cheap stash will be worth substantially more.

However: if you choose to do the latter and buy some Monero to hold, remember that you are very much able to influence your investment's fate. If you expect to sit back and for Monero to magically rise, that is very unlikely to happen. If, however, you get involved and see what you can do to build up the burgeoning Monero economy, that is beneficial for you and for Monero. If you are not a developer, then you can still contribute content and fixed on the website - start by checking out the Monero community Trello board (/u/stefioan will help you with details, if you're interested).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/468qwv/is_monero_a_get_rich_quick_scheme/



This post of aminorex also deserves a crosspost:

It has been a long time since I had enough time and energy to express my views on the trajectory and progress of XMR.  But today I wrote something I think suitable to the moment, and someone might find it encouraging in times to come, so I will cross-post it here, with apologies for any redundancy:

It is easy to take a triumphalist tone during the rips.  The real reward comes to those who can keep that flame burning through the dips.  In fact, I believe we are much, much nearer the bottom than the top, even now.

There really is, even now, almost two full years into the game, nothing real and present which can compare to the excellent qualities of XMR as digital currency, pure and simple.  Many innovative cryptocoins have introduced interesting technologies and economic models, but all of those features actually damage their ability to be used as currency.  Those that come closest in features fail in various and diverse ways such that their distant miniscule liquidity is a profound and persistent handicap.

I have always said that if a superior currency were to emerge, I would change my allegiance as circumstances dictated.  I see less and less likelihood of such an eventuality with each passing million USD of liquidity added to XMR.  No, this is not a pump and dump.  It is one tiny step, with leaps and bounds yet to come, and every inch of the way is hard fought, and every victory well-earned -- some paid for dearly. It is earned primarily by excellence in technology, and secured by honest and transparent dealings.

There are at least 20 trillions of USD in wealth held privately, away from prying eyes, extortionists, thieves, and kidnappers, which currently rely on very illiquid instruments, and some significant proportion of those trillions will need to pass through the eye of our little needle at some point.  I believe that our tiny trickle will be compelled to grow into a mighty torrent of liquidity, through many disruptive stages over several years.  And it has not begun but one ten thousandth of the way yet.

XMR technology continues a long methodical and responsible march towards a balance of those specific features required to function as an international fully distributed private currency, without counterparty risk, without vulnerability to the dictat of a central authority.  The management of such an enterprise is frought with pitfalls, as nearly every cryptocoins project has demonstrated. Yet the meritocratic grass-roots development regime of XMR has avoided these traps nimbly, with a lot of hard work, motivated by a vision of positive social value and of just and worthy personal reward deriving from that honest added value.  

I am encouraged and energized to be a small part of such an economy, and grateful for the opportunity to participate in some small way in the project of making the world a freer, safer, more just place for generations to come.

Would you guys, even though this is the speculation thread, be interested in some (daily) crossposts of salient reddit posts? I'll try to format them together in one post if interested.
1978  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX on: February 17, 2016, 08:12:11 PM

You forgot:

DASH: Pumped & dumped

Read what I just posted  Wink

I was catching up logs. Anyway, that's a sign it attracted more community members / masternode holders. However, that is probably similiar for other altcoins as well. Both Ethereum and Monero saw new faces coming in at reddit/bitcointalk/irc after the "pump". High volume and price increase simply attracts awareness and it applies to most coins.

P.S. Could you make a chart of the relative percentage of masternodes being locked up? That is, the ratio of locked up masternode coins to total supply (over time).

EDIT: Markets simply overshoot (both up and down) due to human behavior. This happens in all markets, stocks, commodities, you name it. Due to the high volatility and illiquidity in cryptocurrencies it is even worse.
1979  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [ANN][DASH] Dash | First Anonymous Coin | Inventor of X11, DGW, Darksend and InstantX on: February 17, 2016, 08:00:21 PM

Looks like Kanye is dumping his altcoin holdings since Zuckerberg refuses to give him a billion.

ETH: Pumped & dumped
XMR: Pumped & dumped
MAID: Pumped & dumped

You forgot:

DASH: Pumped & dumped

+ nearly all altcoins. All of them have similiar looking charts.
1980  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: February 17, 2016, 05:52:39 PM
The price has currently tested the 165k-170k breakout zone multiple times on high volume. Every time it gets tested and isn't broken it gets stronger. Therefore it is likely it will hold for now. However, this is crypto afterall so who knows what might happen.
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