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Small rally is brewing, wonder how far it will go.
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This really does look ugly. I don't see how anyone could expect higher prices right now. COnsidering all that is going on in bitcoinland, i'd say we have enough to say that lower prices are more probable than higher prices at this point. If i had to give a figure, say 65%.
I am a regular reader of forums here (bitcointalk) and bitcoinmarkets on reddit and can comfortably say, sentiment has turned since the times of Greece when everyone was yelling moon. Now, i would characterize it as ambivalence with uncertainty on what will happen next. The kind of ambivalence that required a breach of maajor support level to shift to full mode bearish. That level, i suspect is $200. That is the level to watch now as we drag gradually towards it.
Even ranges never last long (200 -300) and at some point a decision will have to be made. It is my opinion that we are drawing nearer to that decision point.
You're missing a key factor surrounding the overall sentiment. People don't yell "THE SKY IS FALLING" and mean it before they first sold. "Be greedy when others are fearful." - Warren Buffett Being greedy when others just start being fearful is going to get you bull trapped, or even rekt if you try to catch a falling knife with a leveraged limit. That's why I moved my funds from trading to exchange, so I can buy this local bottom (should test again in 3-4 days) without such risk. The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation. History doesn't repeat itself. This would not happen again exactly for this reason. Can we stop comparing what happened previously and expect the same/similar to happen? It is a different market with different variables now. "The volume signature of this crash is low when compared to January. That would indicate there's not much more supply below $200 to be had--a classic shakeout/bear trap to end accumulation." debatable. crash happened too fast ie flash. A gradual grind to sub- 200 would exhibit different market behaviour IMO A lot of people will disagree with you. If you study historical charts of stocks, bonds and commodities they exhibit randomness, yes, but the structures do repeat and are always from the same playbook--a playbook of how humans react to price action. The fact that this doesn't change is why markets peak and crash similarly over and over again throughout history. The names and players may change, but the principles of speculation do not. What happened a year or a month ago is absolutely critical in determining the future trend, because those trends set up a supply and demand imbalance. So on every timescale, each wave in the market sets up the next wave--ignoring the past is ridiculous. A slow grind to $200 or below won't happen unless there are sellers to bring it there. That $3 million short on Finex won't happen again, and he may cover at some point. Scary, climactic action, even if a flash crash (and especially one near the end of a trough accumulation zone) has the effect of removing most of the sellers and remaining weak hands from the market. What kind of move do you think this sets up the market for? Looking at https://bfxdata.com/swaphistory/btc it seems like he has already covered. |
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Speaking of missives... I heard there's a bunch of missiveness hanging around somewhere waiting to be free. I understand the limitation to getting stuff like that out is time and since it is a labour of love it takes a lower priority than many other things. Who does the leg work for the missives? I think we could put some funds together as an incentive to get them together and pushed out the door....  GingerAle is the man to contact, he is recording and editing the missives (next to doing other great work for the community, such as adding content to the about section). You could confer with him about it, perhaps he is interested  -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=399904. I would certainly pledge some if we could get this going! PS: He is gingeropolous on #monero & #monero-dev (freenode). Who handles the RSS XML feed? http://feedvalidator.org/check.cgi?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmissive.getmonero.org%2FrssI guess fluffypony. I'll forward him your message. |
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Speaking of missives... I heard there's a bunch of missiveness hanging around somewhere waiting to be free. I understand the limitation to getting stuff like that out is time and since it is a labour of love it takes a lower priority than many other things. Who does the leg work for the missives? I think we could put some funds together as an incentive to get them together and pushed out the door.... GingerAle is the man to contact, he is recording and editing the missives (next to doing other great work for the community, such as adding content to the about section). You could confer with him about it, perhaps he is interested -> https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=399904. I would certainly pledge some if we could get this going! PS: He is gingeropolous on #monero & #monero-dev (freenode). |
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Code explained by tacotime on reddit: As I noted in the thread, this is similar to the block sizing algorithm for Monero and other CryptoNote coins. A quadratic penalty is imposed such that block subsidy = base subsidy * ((block size / median size of last 400 blocks) - 1)2, with the penalty being applied after you build a block larger than the median size. The maximum block size is 2*median size. Because subsidy is based around the number of coins in existence, the 'burned' subsidy is deferred to be paid out to future blocks. https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/389pq6/elastic_block_cap_with_rollover_penalties_my/crts1do |
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Does XMR have a mobile wallet yet? Havent been able to follow much in the crypto world..buys with work of late... but im still XMR/SDC strong.. thanks for the answer in advance... Sabr.io i think is a great selling point for us Privacy alts Only web-based wallets which do not by design send the private keys (or in the case of monerowallet unencrypted private keys) to the server. monerowallet.com (third party, with assistance from fluffypony) mymonero.com (from fluffypony, core team member) I think monerowallet.com may have a packaged app, but it is still relying on a server back end, similar to a web wallet. These do have a privacy reduction aspect and various incremental security risks compared to a standalone wallet on a computer. In addition: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.ionicframework.monerowallet116498 |
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Official Notice The Mausoleum of the Marquess of Arda constructed; the Estate wants to be dissolved
The first man to die in the Kingdom, the Marquess of Arda, has been buried to his beloved haw, near the Botanical Gardens. The mausoleum is aboveground, quite small and simple in appearance.
The Marquess' Estate has held many auctions in the past and the proceeds have been given to the Monero developers according to his spoken will. Yet there still remains a very large hoard of 10 kilos of gold and other valuables, almost 10,000 mil in total. We would give the Estate to the complete control of Monero developers to do what they wish with the remaining funds. (It has to be noted that this donation is larger than anything recorded in the cAPSLOCK XMR HoF.)
Please appoint the manager for the Estate.
You're doing a great job for this coin & community |
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IMHO atm we see TC and risto playing with each other TC seems to have a margin buy order (14k again ) and most bids seems to be from risto's market making bot. very interesting atm Assuming there are only two players in this market is a bit short sighted to be honest. That buy was nice though and bid support is also strengthening, perhaps we found a nice (local) bottom at 0.002051 afterall. The previous upwards channel before the breakout is currently about 208k-227k. So some softness is possible if we bounce back up from the channel upper range. Going back to the lower range would nullify the breakout but not violate the uptrend.
Fibonacci gives from the beginning of the uptrend in 177k, the values of 213k (full 2. order retracement), 224k (50% retracement), 235k (bullish 38.2% retracement).
Fibonaccis can be counted from any starting value, making them difficult to use properly.
- Anyway, I would say if the current 235k bottom remains for 24 hours, it spells immediate upside.
- If we get a new bottom in 225k range, it is also very positive sign.
- If we grind/flashcrash down to about 210k, it is also positive, but will serve as a reminder to the people who bought too high and TC will be happy...
- Going below 205k is bearish but personally I won't that much care. Happy to get more cheaply.
You were once again on point sir! Also, I would like to add that the candle with the crash to 0.002051 closed above 0.0021, so it doesn't really invalidate the trendline (dreamspark stated this before as well if I recall correctly). |
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IMHO atm we see TC and risto playing with each other TC seems to have a margin buy order (14k again ) and most bids seems to be from risto's market making bot. very interesting atm Assuming there are only two players in this market is a bit short sighted to be honest. That buy was nice though and bid support is also strengthening, perhaps we found a nice (local) bottom at 0.002051 afterall. |
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So if moneromoo continues to kick ass , will the funds in excess of the target for his proposal go to him as a bonus? I've got a little stream of income I'd like to give a percent of as bonus to active dev work for sure. I'd also like to buy a pizza or a lapdance or whatever he is into for NoodleDoodleNoodleDoodleNoodleDoodle for those ridiculous commits. I'm wondering if there is anyone else floating around the code that could work out in a similar fashion to moneromoo, which has been such a interesting success. On the one hand I want to blow up a big bonus for him.. but it would also be powerful to build up an active paid team, each of their work (in theory) having a multiplier effect on eachothers' payments. But then you also don't want division between paid dev and unpaid dev... (foggy confusion)...
I am not sure if they will go to him as a bonus, on the other hand I don't know where they would go else. However, I think once his contract ends he might pitch for an extention, so you could also save it for that cause. Regarding the bolded part, I would love to see that too and I hope that in the future more devs will pitch a proposal. Also, I think there won't be a real division, if a dev wants to be paid he can just pitch himself for funding, even if it's only a few hours per week. Keep in mind that there are also devs/contributers for whom this is just a hobby and they'll code voluntarily if they have time to do so. |
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Waiting for dump
No such thing as a dump with this coin, sell offs sure but that's it. Where is that link for the last moron that sold off at .0015 LOL At your service -> https://vid.me/ima7 |
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Total buy orders getting pretty low on poloniex. Maybe people getting ready to put coins on Cryptsy market? Maybe people jumping in the ETH fray? Maybe interest just waning?
I sincerely think it's the bolded part. I guess we'll just have to wait until the ETH storm calms down a bit. We have a nice hammer on the daily chart though, which mostly signs a bullish reversal. |
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So, "fake" walls can become real walls if the strategy is formulated as: "I will buy it back if I get at least 10% cheaper, if not, it will be a permanent partial cash out of my long term position." This strategy gives you peace of mind when operating large fake walls. I wonder why I know it  Now would be a good time to start buying so eth traders take notice... In my opinion he is waiting to dump. Always good strategy with XMR. What kind of FUD is this? I think rpietila is one of the most transparent people w.r.t. his actions. |
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......The only good news in this whole deal is that, as far as I know, InstantX transactions cannot be double spent because they are locked by the masternode network. In a worst-case scenario, that might could be used to stabilize the network until the problem could be dealt with.
...
I was wondering about this and posted a question a day or two ago. My view is the same as yours. However, what if someone gains 51% of the network for, say 24 hrs, and uses that time to create a longest chain rule which they switch back and forth. Instantx transactions would be locked on different chains  I think that specific pool will still be able to invalidate an InstantX transaction. However, my knowledge of this subject is limited, so I hope someone else will chim in and give a clear answer. |
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Imagine the miners were as committed to the dash project? Coinmine still has over 60% of the hashrate. This could kill all credibility for a coin to consistently have over 60% of it's hashrate generating from one pool.
I recall when BTC had this same issue, the community pulled together and miners started leaving the pool responsible.
All this community seems hell bent on protecting are their own feelings and rationale when called out on instamine etc.
If I were smooth or any of the other dash haters I would simply keep calling the community out on their laggard response to a network hashrate distribution issue.
Buckle up, do something as a community, spread the word to your miner friends on dash and tell them to leave coinmine for the time being and join another pool or go p2p mining(it's so dam easy)
https://chainz.cryptoid.info/dash/#!extractionand it's been around 40% for about 12h already https://dashtalk.org/threads/51-hashrate-coinmine-pl.5860/#post-63095I don't know which site is reporting the right statistics, but according to this ( https://www2.coinmine.pl/dash/index.php?page=statistics&action=pool) the pool is at 42.265 GH/s while the total network speed is 67.724 GH/s accordong to this ( https://www.coinmine.pw/poolinfo.php?coinid=53). 42.265 / 67.724 = ~62.4% |
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I would not be worried even if we go lower than the lower bound of the trendline. Especially if we stay above the previous lows, we still are able to maintain a bull market but then it is simply slower than our current channel suggests. I do not mind these dumps, I hope there will be more like this. ETH looks so strong that it is unlikely it will fail. There are simply too many btc in bids - however I doubt the buyers are the smartest people as they market buys 10-30 btc at one shoot driving the price up and making the lending market dry as Sahara and TrueCryptonaire is happy with almost 2 % daily interest payments.  Bids can easily be removed and asks can easily be added. A rational trader shouldn't really look at the orderbook, because it's the #1 instrument to fool people.While I agree the orderbook is the cheapest way to fool people with pulling off bids/asks, I disagree with the fact that a rational investor shouldn't look at them. There are at least two reasons why a rational investor should look at the orderbooks. 1) Game theoretic approach. If there are at least some "fools" who are getting fooled by the orderbooks, their actions make it smart to observe the orderbook. 2) The bids and asks are real - you can anytime make a sharp move and buy/sell into the asks/bids and then even the most fake wall becomes a real wall. Therefore holding fake orders is risky business as they get sometimes filled. I admit you brought up some solid arguments here and thus I revise my statement. In addition I would like to add that most of the fake bids/asks are often put up far away from the market, which makes them influenceable but quite difficult to buy/sell into. |
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I would not be worried even if we go lower than the lower bound of the trendline. Especially if we stay above the previous lows, we still are able to maintain a bull market but then it is simply slower than our current channel suggests. I do not mind these dumps, I hope there will be more like this. ETH looks so strong that it is unlikely it will fail. There are simply too many btc in bids - however I doubt the buyers are the smartest people as they market buys 10-30 btc at one shoot driving the price up and making the lending market dry as Sahara and TrueCryptonaire is happy with almost 2 % daily interest payments. Bids can easily be removed and asks can easily be added. A rational trader shouldn't really look at the orderbook, because it's the #1 instrument to fool people. |
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Agree that ETH is definitely taking a huge chunk of the XMR trade atm.
One look at the order book tells you that. All my funds are off Polo atm as I don't feel comfortable holding funds there atm.
The orderbook for ETH is just insane, 1500+ BTC on the bid side and volume over 7k. I bet a lot of people are on margin and when this thing goes south some will get burned hard. Bear in mind that this has been going on since 0.0025, so it's around x3 now which is in no way sustainable. Good call at keeping your funds off polo. I've read nothing about socialized losses or something and in general altcoins are very illiquid, so this might end bed. However, poloniex has maintenance margin if I recall correctly, which might mitigate some of the risk. Regarding maintenance margin: Maintenance Margin: Your maintenance margin is the percentage of the total value you have borrowed that you must keep in your margin account to avoid a forced liquidation. For example, suppose you have 1.5 BTC in your margin account, and your maintenance margin is 20%. Borrowing 3 BTC, you open a long position in the XMR market. Now, in order to avoid a forced liquidation, the net value of your margin account must remain above 20% of 3 BTC — 0.6 BTC. If the price of XMR starts declining, the amount of BTC you can get by selling the XMR you just purchased diminishes, and you start to incur a loss, as reflected in your P/L. If the amount of this loss, together with the lending fees you owe, reaches 0.9 BTC, the net value of your margin account will be 0.6 BTC (1.5 BTC minus 0.9 BTC in unrealized losses). If this happens, one or more of your positions will be closed automatically to prevent further loss and ensure you do not default on your loans.
Unfortunately this means that we'll probably continue to sell off, something that I dont think would have happened without ETH coming along.
This bit of price discovery will be interesting. Volume up was alot more than this volume down so there are plenty of people sitting under water, it all depends if they are going to protect their buys or cut losses. Time will tell.
I certainly agree on the bolded part. I think sitting under water isn't really bothering most people, since most were under water for a long time (remember the bearmarket from Aug until January). Furthermore, I think every XMR trader that wanted to ride the ETH wave would've sold off by now, so I expect the volatility to dwindle and less violent dumps. I sincerely hope that 0.0021 will hold though, otherwise we might see a retest of 0.0018 or even lower. PS: It seems like every other coin on polo is basically down today, whereas ETH is going up. |
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Channel I am currently looking at:  Also, 21.3 is the 61.8% fib retracement level. I am not really worried until 21 breaks, although I would've prefered a bit less sharp retracement. Furthermore, I think once the ETH pump is over some of the traders will flock back to Monero, not entirely sure of this though but it seems like ETH is attracting all the volume and traders. |
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