I think the down move is excellerating. I was looking at the long red candles and they are getting larger in size on this down move. The volume is still not huge so it looks like we are building towards a very hard move down. Now, I might play the bottom of that one if there is volume, huge volume.

Notice what I'm saying and the last red large hammer candle...
It is called... THE QUICKENING! 

Thanks for the comment (and honesty).

Regarding the volume of trades, maybe you misunderstood or missed my point - I am watching the buys and sales go through on clarkmoody or http://trading.i286.org/ and I notice the size of the "blocks" are generally MUCH LARGER on the sells. This is purely observational, the intuitive part, if I can call it that, is that "I get the feeling" those large block sizes are early adopters and miners. But even then, it makes sense. I mean who can afford to buy 100, 200, 1000 shares? That is a lot of money in a small small market. Let's say I can afford to buy 100 shares, if I sold I would probably not do it at around the same time as other guys selling those large blocks, which is what I see happening. And the buys (as you say being smaller in block size) are no where nears as much as the larger blocks, that is why we are going down. That part is purely volume, but I was talking block size.

I might be mistaken as I am no expert with "watching the tape" and no one else has commented on this that I have seen. But it does fit my theory. 

My apologies (sort of), be more clear! I don't remember all usernames ("good guys" and "bad") ehehehe
 

Watch $68, $60 next.

I've mentioned that number many times. I never said magical. As a matter of fact I stated in MANY posts that I am not (and did not) play it for a bounce.
I am clear, this down move is incredibly dangerous to trade on (as my Clark moody beeps on the sells like crazy).

Again, please stop taking statements out of context. That is manipulative. And if you start searching, don't take pieces of my posts out of context either. We'll leave that to the States and intelligence agencies...

I said this yesterday, think I was day off.  


I hope quoting myself isn't too egocentric in appearance. At least IAS doesn't talk about himself in the 3rd person... oops...  

Seriously, what we are seeing is quite clear and a few of us have mention it - All rallies are being sold into. Once the walls are built on the buy side they are being sold into.
The danger lies in when those walls are not quite rebuilt and then sold into. When that happens be very very very careful not to go long!

But we all know this can change on a dime, so even though many of us here are short to mid term bearish, it is wise to be careful and not ignorant...

And what do you think? You have had some good points as I recall...

I do see the word "greed" come up a lot when talking BTC. And of course the word "hoarding."

But what is wrong with the words "saving" and "store of value"? In a sense we are talking the same thing (though clearly not always.)
What is wrong with moving money (e.g. USD) created by a central bank and used to fund wars (since the war tax thing didn't go over well) into something else?

To have a money that doesn't penalize saving and is not centrally controlled is a nice step forward (before Star Trek like "monetary use"...)

I think you are confusing long term, mid and short term (which I mentioned), but you quoted me in part (almost out of context) and didn't even mention my handle.
Further, you are making this into a false dilema fallacy or at least a red herring. I never brought up the $250 price. My argument was technical, not monetary.

I am really missing what you are getting at (outside of pure manipulation). Perhaps more than a one line, misrepresented partial quote would clear things up. An explanation of what you mean would help...

It is very very possible. I think you (we) need to consider the early adopters and miners who have most of the shares (relative to regular Joes).
When we get in a clear downtrend they don't want to be the last one out the door.
So, you see sells into rallies and such moves.
The volume difference (really size of sales) is clear. Just watch the tape. (You will notice more 100, 200, 5000 and larger size blocks on the sells than the buys and it's generally not close).

From a TA point of view, it makes sense to sort of continue where we left off (minus some room up for advancements, adoption, store of value, global economic situation, etc.)
That puts us anywhere from 20's to 50's (and I'd say at the lower range of that BUT we have to consider our advancement and such as stated above.)

Yes and no. I would imagine there is a VPN app for cell phones?
Every time you see "US IP's blocked" it is just another way of saying: "We are leaving the legal decision to the end users. If you wish to work with us then use a VPN."

I wonder if Apple will block this from the app store as well - I'm sure they will...

Why "quote" someone (me) and insert things they never said? Mod, how about some action here? Isn't there something against board slander? 

My last prediction (yesterday) might be coming true as we speak (TA at work):

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.21960

Very interesting post and thanks for taking the time to give your opinion.
I certainly give someone "on the ground" more credibility than a techy guy.
It will be interesting to see how things turn out.

What you say may very well be true (makes a lot of sense) but a nice app, easier access to BTC and such mich help change things.

Even if BTC becomes a store of wealth for few, with the world banking system the way it is, it can still be a very good thing to hold.
And one also has to consider the low float and global market size, we don't need to be wildly successful to succeed.

edit - Great points/posts Gismo and justusranzier. Very interesting posts and it just goes to show you perspective is everything.

What I get from observing this thread is that most of the people questioning or criticizing Rampion don't seem to understand (or at least bring up) Technical Analysis.
First, let me say I'm a long term BTC Bull (very very bullish). I'm a short to mid term bear.
Quick background - I was an active trader and did quite well at it years ago, but have been out of the market for 10 years or so. I just practice my old skills on BTC these days.
I know candlestick chart analysis pretty well and use a handful of indicators along with it. More recently I've been learning about market depth but my forte is chart analysis.

I believe deeply in BTC, but right now we don't have much in the way of fundamentals (if we were to compare ourselves to a stock). I know that will come though and things are really looking bright for the future. My argument here is mostly TA. If great news comes out (as with any stock) the TA can be thrown out the window (short term).

To those of you guys/gals that are bullish on BTC, let me ask you the following:

1. Have you been following the tape? I have watched it for weeks (on and off) now and something has stood out to me. The size of the sell orders are usually much much larger than the buy orders. This tells me common Joes (like me and probably you) are doing the buying, while large holders are doing the selling. Is this not INCREDIBLY alarming to you? Have you even checked this?

2. The Market depth on the buy side is evaporating and has been. The sell levels have been increasing. The number of sells at higher prices (in the books) has been decreasing. Now, a lot of the depth is clearly fake (e.g. walls get pulled and such) but we are still seeing a picture when we look. Is this not worrisome to you? Do you not notice that the sellers wait for the buy walls to build up and then dump?

3. The 10 day EMA just crossed under the 100 day EMA (around a week ago) and the 21 day EMA did 2 days ago. Do you understand this? It is not an end all, but considering it is the first time it's happened in a while, it should catch your attention.

4. Many experienced TA guys are bearish. Actually, I have not come across one that is bullish. (Say out of around 10 or so that seem to know their stuff, 2 or 3 which are paid services.)

5. We broke key support at 79/80 ish. We are on it right now but we broke through it cleanly and without much resistance. This should bother you DEEPLY if you understand TA.

6.  On the recent leg down, I called 2 or 3 negative divergences (up move in price with a down move in volume) which were followed by huge drops down. Check my posts with labelled pictures.  Considering the huge drops afterwards, have any of you looked into this? Noticed this? Or are you just thinking we bottomed because we have started going up?

7. Can any of you actually really read a candlestick chart? What does the chart tell you? (I can't find much in it that is positive - outside of being oversold).

8. Have any of you noticed how this "crash" can be almost laid out and over the 2011 crash? (Chart wise)   Is that not a warning? I mean just to be careful...

Now, I'm not saying I know what is going to happen. Any of us can be wrong, the point isn't in saying "I'm right", after all we are all BTC enthusiasts for the most part. I'm only sharing to share, not to taunt or the like. But the TA I use and those I follow are seeing pretty much the same thing (Using a variety of TA to boot). Yes, we can be wrong but I'd much sooner take an evidential approach rather than just an emotional one (and as the fundamentals appear they should and will be integrated). Something I heard once has really stuck with me: "Emotion is not concerned with truth. It is merely concerned with being correct." I have experience regarding emotional decisions, not that long ago actually (I was burned a bit) and I'm adapting. Is anyone doing the same, adapting?

Basically, I see emotional reactions here with no TA (or even fundamental basis) for the "attacks" on Rampion.
In a sense, you are proving his point. That should be worrisome...

IAS

In a sense we need a killer app of some type. This could be the start at least in another country. We only need things to start taking off in one location and then the organic nature of BTC (, developers and the VC's) can take over.
My concern though, with something like this is the volatility of BTC. That is not a problem if you are using Bitpay or the like, but for BTC to work in these countries I would think there needs to
be some form of stability, UNLESS the inflation rate there is more risky than BTC (e.g. - Argentina).

Can you imagine if this "app" takes off AFTER we correct and people in poor nations are locked into something deflationary and rising quite steadily in price?

IAS

Not perfect (missing a bit on the second candle) but this does look like a symmetrical triangle coming off clear down movement. Am I reaching?  
(Then again you can have the triangle, albeit small, start 2 candles later. To complete we need to hit 81 or so and then move back down next candle over.)

This is a 4 hour chart so the outcome should be later today or by tomorrow.

I'm not trying to turn anything. MtGox is almost back to functional regarding outgoing wires. Do you understand that the initial announcement cause a boost in BTC price as it was the only way for those affected to get money off Gox? I think Gox has done a lot for the BTC community and I know being #1 comes with costs.

The ETF thing can be a good way to hedge bets but I think it is must for large investors. Who does it benefit? I mean to buy Gold ETF's make sense, but bitcoin is already digital. It is pretty easy to buy as well. It seems the ETF, at least so far, benefits the twins and not so much BTC (though like I said it is advertising but I have a feeling that is not why the twins did it.)

I'm a huge long term BTC Bull, just in case you get the wrong idea. But I don't see either of these things as great news. Just my opinion (and so far the market seems to agree, but only so far...)

Oh, I'm not nitpicking about the news, I just pretty much disagree with you.

The Kipochi announcement above I think is really exciting and potentially great news.

Very very cool. I'd like to see how this plays out. Many have said it will be in the 2nd and 3rd world nations where BTC gets traction first.

The ETF may or may not happen. They filed the paperwork. It will be months before we know. It could help add exposure to BTC though and that is great. In and of itself it is not much.

The MtGox release is NOT good news. They are essentially saying "We almost got our problem resolved. Things will still be slow for a while until we catch up." It is not good news to just function as expected.
Good news will be in a few weeks when they have the new trade engine. But LTC is being released around then (perhaps) so we'll see the effect.

Not to be a downer but just calling it like it is.

I am hoping my other prediction a few pages back comes true. This one will be more meaningfull:

It is looking like it so far, was off by $1 on the move up.

I'm with you, I am really hesitant to trade this. Had I went with my last two "calls" on the bounces I would have made $5-$7 on each move, if I followed it exactly. Anyway, won't matter much once we are lower.

A move up to 86 or so and then a bit of selling to bring things back down is possible. That will then create a nice spinning top candle. Some indecision for a day or two and then continue with the down trend.