Where do I say dumping?
I say selling, downwards pressure. I do not expect a crash, just a slow downtrend...
Please excuse me. You are right. You did not say dumping. My mistake. But 1000s and 1000s of Bitcoins are being sold in the current price range every day. And if you look at what is happening over the past couple of weeks, new fiat money is coming in and now that the holidays are over and banks and exchanges are properly back to business, I believe this will increase quite significantly in the weeks to come. We will see how the dynamic plays out! Sorry again for leaping to conclusions about what you were saying!  |
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PS but of course there is the Whale Temple there if you wish to communicate with them directly!  |
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I think the scenario of the OP is possible:
Think about it: most big whales who were looking to sell some did not had enough time to do so.
If we look at the number of days BTC was above 1000 USD, it is not much. The number is below 10 (5 full days at bitstamp for example)
Now we see slower growth in the price, but there will be a downwards pressure when we are reaching >950. Maybe we wil go above 1000, but it will generate a lot of people selling some BTC who were to greedy in november/december.
(Also do not forget a lot of people are short on cash after the holidays)
I think a downtrend is possible to go to 500 maybe 400 in a few months time.
Believe me, the really big whales who became so due to being the early adopters and those who have been working on the tech and are in because they love it, are in for the long term - and I'm willing to wager that the ones who want to be are all rich in dollars already thanks to Bitcoin. Do you think that people with a lot of Bitcoins just dump them all at once? Again, I'll wager that the majority actually take the time to consider not crashing the market when they make some dollars, and they sell Bitcoins in smaller lumps. Of course one or two might actually want to crash the market. But I believe these kind of traders are becoming worried that their tactics might not have the desired effect (due to the resilience and experience of so many Bitcoin enthusiasts) and therefore they lose money if they get it wrong. There are also bigger whales looking to prey on smaller ones! I just don't buy the "watch out for all those whales dumping" panic stories at all. In any case, if everyone thought like that the market would never evolve. |
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Fat controller twiddling knobs on Gox and Stamp... how long can he keep it up before Thomas runs him down?!!! |
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Come on Fat Controller. Get out of the way!   |
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Sorry last pic I posted got stuck. I do believe we may be in for a choo choo ride!  |
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... And new volume pushing $810 on Stamp!
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New volume pushing $890 on Gox. This is interesting.
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In your opinion, what is the chance of a final big crash to 600, 500 levels happening within this month before the stabilization of price?
Its will be highly improbable of any fall this month,if market remains above 775 level till 5 jan, although there is a small window for falling below/to 648 level around 20-21 january 2014. my models similarly predict another high-volume capitulation in about 3 weeks. Erm... excuse me but are you really trying to tell us that you can predict that in 3 weeks from now there is going to be a high-volume dumping session? Come on, that's stretching it much too far. No amount of analysis can tell you that in this market. But I suppose 3 weeks does give you quite a long period of time in which to hope for some kind of downtrend (although I have a strong sneaking suspicion the "final capitulation" scenario some buyers are waiting for is never going to happen). |
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it's a giant mid-term bulltrap. in other words, it's an upwards correction inside of the longer-term downtrend.
Sure. I understand the premise. I guess we will see. If that wedge breaks upward or sideways then up, then what do your charts say? Wave 5 is it? it won't. i'm not even using EW, im using the damped oscillator model, and it is increasingly apparent that we are not yet through the aftershocks of the December crash. this is a correction to the downtrend, which will not be complete until one more large capitulation event. then we may start a new trend. Ok. We if by large capitulation you mean back to 600 or something I might agree. Otherwise, I look forward to revisiting this post. please do. and no price targets -- that's a secret  but a bottoming out with large volume, with a rapid recovery. a cusp. oh, hello future forumites! --arepo Careful windjc... Do you see what he did there? I get the strong suspicion Arepo is starting to sweat! |
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Ha ha! This is what we need more than ever - APP micropayments! I'm telling you, despite the fact that each Bitcoin will soon be worth more than an ounce of gold, it's going to be micropayments that are going to give the biggest boost in the long term. Kind of like plankton feeding whales. Oh whoops, the irony! |
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I'm pretty sure they said they were going to sell the coins ..... someone can correct me if they didn't
Why? Do you think they need the money right now? Of course they won't sell. Everybody is bullish for Bitcoin this year, including the FBI! Even all the bears on this forum are bullish! There is no way the FBI will sell any coins for at least 2 years in my opinion, and only then might they pass some to the treasury as a way to control the price. Why? Because I read a report saying the FBI intended to sell the coins, that's all. Yes, sorry, there is the "report". But the article is just speculation ( present company accepted). Anyone can see that. So someone made an off the cuff comment to a hack: "This is kind of new to us. We will probably just liquidate them.” That doesn't mean much really. Remember that this comment was, according to the article, immediately after the Silk Road raid, which means before the Senate hearing, recent price rise, etc. It flies in the face of common sense right now to say that the FBI will just "liquidate" their stash. |
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Wow, people are getting trigger happy with their ignores right now. Wonder if that is bullish? Someone make a chart pls.
tbh I think we're over ignored right now. I expect ignores to roll back to about 75% of what they are right now. Imminent crash: whale to un-ignore 10,000 people at any moment! Be prepared for things to go crazy! |
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i really doubt we will go down again, or if you can compare it this easily with april. Everyone was expecting an drop at regular newyear and is expecting the chinese newyear, so dont think it will be this big of an event.
Besides, there is alot of good news atm with more companies accepting bitcoins, which boosts the price.
+1 Those who base everything on last summer are not factoring in what is happening right now. Sounds obvious but it's true. |
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I'm pretty sure they said they were going to sell the coins ..... someone can correct me if they didn't
Why? Do you think they need the money right now? Of course they won't sell. Everybody is bullish for Bitcoin this year, including the FBI! Even all the bears on this forum are bullish! There is no way the FBI will sell any coins for at least 2 years in my opinion, and only then might they pass some to the treasury as a way to control the price. Basically the FBI has to sell them, unless special legislation would be passed which would allow the FBI to speculate on seized assets, which makes no sense. What remains is using them for some sort of sting operation to flush out other blackmarket sites, but I don't think that is really an option since it's hard to hide where the coins come from. Are you really that ignorant about how the world works? Ignorant? What do you mean? Considering that the US government is working out how to cater for Bitcoin's success do you not think they would want reserves of their own? Right now there is speculation going on with fiat currencies: does that mean that the government or FBI is not allowed to hold fiat currencies? |
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My goodness! What a glorious Saturday morning this is! Just look at all that Hodling this weekend! Amazing! So far so good! Looking back over last night and checking the Gox charts all the way from 1 minute through 1 hour, I am seeing some interesting stuff. It looks like, dare I say it, someone may have decided to dump some coins at a particular moment when there was no good reason for them to do so (well apart from all that fiendish “low volume” *yawn, stretch*). No, really, there were plenty of smallish buys going on and the price moving up. So what does this say? The plot thickens. Further analysis shows that the dump was timed exactly at the point when the price could have reached a new high (+$888) for this uptrend or... shock horror!... look like what some people might call a small “double top”. Wooooooo !  So over a period of 15 minutes coins dropped at regular intervals creating pretty red candles. Could this have been an attempt by a fiat heavy bear with some coins to start a cascade? I don't know. But what I do know is this. There are a lot people sitting on a lot of money hoping that they will have one last chance to buy in low before the price keeps moving up and they maybe never get another chance to buy a Bitcoin at under $1,000. But I don't think that they have factored in the growing interest in Bitcoin, the historical “bubbles” moving closer together, spreading adoption, etc. and.... Hodlers! My oh my have we been Hodling so very nicely over these last couple of weeks. If the attempted panic-inducing scenario I have painted above is true, then Hodlers... you can congratulate yourselves for having shaken yet another pure speculator* from the tree.  And this is what is happening with almost every single one of these several hundred to several thousand coin dumps we have seen over the past couple of weeks. If any of those sellers was hoping to buy back in cheaper straight away: They failed; Hodling prevailed. You don't need me to go over the myriad good reasons for sticking to your guns right now at this crucial point, Hodlers. There is indisputable evidence that a lot more investment is heading Bitcoins's way right now and in the near future. This is not like last summer at all. Thousands of managers from the worlds of finance, investment, e-commerce, etc. are looking seriously at Bitcoin now. Make no mistake: 2014 is going to be big. And everyone can see that the price boosts, otherwise known as "bubbles", have been getting closer and closer together as Bitcoin grows. Bulls and bears alike agree on this – anyone can see it. Well following this logic any large future price rise is likely due in the first quarter of 2014. This could correlate with what some are calling an S-curve. I believe that the time is ripe for the hundreds of thousands (soon to become tens of millions and more) of smaller Bitcoin owners – those who have invested anything between a few dollars to a few thousand dollars – to come out on top of the waves. Too long has Bitcoin been manipulated by traders with their "play money" of hundreds of thousands of dollars. But do you know what? These guys are now getting scared that they can't move the markets as much as they could in the past. And they are scared of eachother. So let's keep Holding firm. It's a heart-warming sight! Of course I cannot make promises but I can say I believe people Hodling now will see very rewarding growth in the weeks and months to come, because Bitcoin is going to begin going mainstream in 2014. This is what I think, and I have put my own money in with this reasoning. Good luck to you all! *Pure speculation = Trying to make money from the price movements first and foremost. Hodling is not pure speculation: Hodlers belive Bitcoin will succeed. Do you know what the funny thing is? Even the bears on this forum believe Bitcoin will succeed. They are all waiting to buy coins because they think Bitcoin will win! Disclaimer: This is what I really think. Sorry if it is annoying for some! |
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I'm pretty sure they said they were going to sell the coins ..... someone can correct me if they didn't
Why? Do you think they need the money right now? Of course they won't sell. Everybody is bullish for Bitcoin this year, including the FBI! Even all the bears on this forum are bullish! There is no way the FBI will sell any coins for at least 2 years in my opinion, and only then might they pass some to the treasury as a way to control the price. |
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its a TOTAL f-in scam. I am here making money - speculating. Well maybe not more money, I made money, I might try make more if it crashes by buying in again, but I might not. See where it crashes to and for how long.
But its a total and utter scam (bitcoin and all the other coins). Not a single coin is designed in any other way but to enrich the early adopters at the expense of everyone else. If someone comes up with a coin that is sustainable and makes long term sense, I will buy in long term, but so far all I see is scam crap.
Would I put any of my life saving into bitcoin long term? not a chance.
Fuck me. If Hodling means this guy never gets another coin then I say Hodl! |
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Its coming.......
What? More bad decisions? Damn that sucks. you would be worth close to half a million had you been able to rough it out for 3 years... 3 years for a half million. all you have to do is believe in your idea and stop wasting money...and i was pissed for having sold 18 BTC for 5k... shit
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Jonesing for some Bitcoin excitement. Think I may go drive the wrong way down the interstate at 120mph.
I just got some Bitcoin excitement by going to see Toronto's first BTC ATM. It's also the first Canadian-made BTC ATM, made in Ottawa. Unfortunately it wasn't running. Apparently it was working a couple of nights ago for the grand unveiling but I had something way better to do that night involving good company and good food. Dude said it should be fully operational within 2 weeks. It was still a little rough, accepting only $5, $10 and $20 bills and was one-way, accepting fiat for bitcoins but not vice-versa. Dude assured me both matters would be rectified. Like the Robocoin, it will either scan a QR code or print out a newly created paper wallet, but unlike the Robocoin there is no palm scan involved. I wonder how long that will last. Oddly, dude said the exchange rate is based on Bitstamp, not Virtex. He also said that at the moment the ATM has to be manually loaded with coins until they establish a relationship with an exchange. Current fees are 5% but dude said they would be reduced as more ATMs are added and as overall volume increases. He stressed that fees were intentionally less that Robocoin and implied active competition. Still, 5% barely covers the cost of getting fiat over to Bitstamp. Maybe they're large-scale miners with a surplus to be converted to fiat to cover expenses/financing. Whatever, it was an exciting break from watching the charts obsessively. Edit- Here's a picture https://i.imgur.com/O9MnxYn.jpgNice one! Thanks for the mini-report! |
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