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2041  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Paedophile or need new terms? on: January 05, 2020, 11:58:18 PM
the term paedo already applies to adult wanting to do things with kids under 11.
the term hebephile already applies to adult wanting to do things with kids 11-14.
the term ephebophile already applies to adult wanting to do things with kids 14-16.


but the real term should be 'sicko' for anyone doing things with people without consent
and that means too young for their supposed naive consent to be valid.
so even if a sicko thinks a kid is ok with it. they still a sicko

These terms are pretty sicko. They can never get into popular use, obscure latin medical phrases.

I do agree with the issue, though, that the 17 year old .... not pedo ...
2042  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [POLL] WILL TRUMP BE ELECTED TO A SECOND TERM? on: January 05, 2020, 07:51:42 PM
....

There's a ton of interesting stuff out there about how polling works, I understand the skepticism but make sure you take a good look at how they work and how accurate their results are over a large sample size.

I did a couple of these free courses a while ago, they're quick and easy and might change your opinion on polling in general.

https://academy.maristpoll.marist.edu/collections?category=courses

4.8 or 5.2% is not "accurate." It is EXTREMELY INACCURATE.

I suggest you have a look at Taleb, the black swan, and the Thanksgiving Turkey problem.
2043  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [POLL] WILL TRUMP BE ELECTED TO A SECOND TERM? on: January 05, 2020, 07:37:31 PM
....
You don't need to be an expert in statistics to understand that at the very least polls are not just worthless.

The most simple way ....

I've worked in survey and poll design so your arguments don't impress me except in one very important respect.

You seem to illustrate an example of the bending of survey and opinion results to suit your personal desired narrative.

May I suggest, instead of just protesting, think about that a bit. It's likely not just you but perhaps most people in such work. Just like most reporters think they are unbiased, but to us outside of their field that's laughable.

Polls are not worthless, they are just one step above worthless. An indicator at best.
....
Polls certainly are worthless, when used dimensionally for confirmation bias. That literally consists of a product of confirmation bias being used for confirmation bias.
2044  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran on: January 05, 2020, 04:21:05 AM
I'm not sure what the alternative here was. Soleimani was a terrorist greater than Osama bin Laden who was involved in nearly 20% of the deaths during the Iraqi War. He has American blood on his hands and was continually coordinating terrorism attacks on U.S. troops. His killing was without a doubt the correct move. ....

Sounds like a de-escalation of tensions to me.

+1 to that.

The Democratic line of defense here revolves around the fact that the Dems think that they should've been allowed to vote on the strike beforehand and had been told about the strike beforehand. ....

Well, that ain't the way it works.
2045  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Reddit’s science forum banned climate deniers. on: January 04, 2020, 08:27:32 PM



Glacier National Park Quietly Removes Its "Gone By 2020" Signs






Officials at Glacier National Park (GNP) have begun quietly removing and altering signs and government literature which told visitors that the Park’s glaciers were all expected to disappear by either 2020 or 2030....

My suggestion as to the replacement:

Watch out for bears! And with a warming climate and all the ice melting, watch out for Polar Bears! Those regular bears are just lunch for them! And when they run out of black and brown bears, it's your time to be lunch!

Don't worry about safety, the bears will be fine. Remember, no firearms in the park!
2046  Other / Politics & Society / Re: FLAT MARS on: January 04, 2020, 08:20:42 PM
This is NASA astronaut and homosexual Scott Kelly aboard the ISS:

The Three Musketeers are an all male thruple, it's blatant pro-masonic homosexual propaganda.

I'm noticing a pattern here.  A secret obsession with homosexuality? 

Or maybe not so secret.  Kiss

Indeed...

"Balls" are not spherical and are not balls.

And something else ... is notably FLAT.
2047  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Did we actually really land on moon? on: January 04, 2020, 07:40:22 PM
My honest opinion on this would probably be NO. If humans had landed long back with those technologies then we would have a colony by now on Moon. World wanted to see who won the space race and US grabbed that opportunity by creating this.

Why we need a colony on moon when there are no oxygen and planting trees might be undiscovered to the unsources land? There are few things that need to be process by which you can't prove without any evidence by landing on the moon. But for now we have an advance technology, do you believe that there are no people who land on the moon already?

Oh, we might could use the helium3 on the moon for powering fusion reactors.
Might be very interesting to put powerful telescopes / radio telescopes on the far side. Or build a rocket propellant supply station there for solar system missions.
2048  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Donald Trump Impeachment Hearings [serious discussion] on: January 04, 2020, 07:38:05 PM
....
In Trumps defense, there's no evidence of him explicitly saying he was doing it because of the election.  

Also, after he found out he was being investigated by congress he did explicitly say 'I want nothing, no quid quo pro' to the EU ambassador and then released the funds.

In my opinion it's painfully obvious that his primary motivation was to make his political opponent look bad.  ....
Earlier you said ...

There is tons of evidence that suggests the main reason he withheld the funds and WH meeting was to gain a political advantage in the next election.  For example, why would he make a public statement from Ukraine about opening the investigation a requirement before giving Ukraine a meeting in the White House?....


I replied ...

"Evidence that suggests" is not evidence.

You are trying to make inferences as to motive.



Now you are saying

In my opinion it's painfully obvious that his primary motivation was to make his political opponent look bad.  ....

It would appear you agree with me? Please clarify. Is there actually evidence, or do we just get to hear your opinion? This may seem trivial but the "witnesses" brought by Adam Schiff also seemed to just have a bunch of Orange Man Bad "opinions", and everyone's really sick of hearing that sort of tripe.

There's also a fundamental legal problem with your position, which is that the alleged actions did not occur, so you have no person damaged by the alleged "motivations." It's as if you have some guys talking about burglarizing Democrat HQ (Watergate) but not doing it. The correct charge for this would be a form of conspiracy, would it not?

Or do you just want to impeach for your opinion of primary motivation?

2049  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is Global Warming Real? on: January 04, 2020, 06:38:23 PM
Some people believe that global warming is just the conspiracy to control the development of industrial country. Sometime, I think so. What about you?  

Scientists worldwide agree that global warming is happening, and that human activity causes it...

No they do not.

They typically may say something like human activity is a partial factor.
2050  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Vid of Biden admit bribe of Ukrainian Pres. to fire prosecutor investigating son on: January 04, 2020, 03:46:36 PM
....

Trump didn't do anything immoral or illicit. The point of all of this, and the subject of the thread for that matter is the accusations against Trump are being used to draw attention away from the fact that The Democrat party is using D.A.R.V.O. tactics ad-nauseam to try to protect themselves from prosecution for their own crimes. See they never expected Trump to get in and were counting on a pass from Killery. Now they have to remove Trump or face justice themselves. ...

I think a way to understand this pro-Biten-as-VICTIM posturing and latest round of Orange Man Bad is to reflect on the fact that its the same people that were reflexively arguing Hillary Good now saying Biden Good Orange Man Bad.

Of course they won't admit they were Hillary devotees.

After Biden's gone they won't admit they were Biden bumblefucks either.

It's just whoever they are told to follow at the moment.
2051  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [POLL] WILL TRUMP BE ELECTED TO A SECOND TERM? on: January 04, 2020, 03:01:20 AM
....
You don't need to be an expert in statistics to understand that at the very least polls are not just worthless.

The most simple way ....

I've worked in survey and poll design so your arguments don't impress me except in one very important respect.

You seem to illustrate an example of the bending of survey and opinion results to suit your personal desired narrative.

May I suggest, instead of just protesting, think about that a bit. It's likely not just you but perhaps most people in such work. Just like most reporters think they are unbiased, but to us outside of their field that's laughable.
2052  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Donald Trump Impeachment Hearings [serious discussion] on: January 04, 2020, 02:58:11 AM
trying to impeach trump on basis of biden corruption is complete nonsense

There is tons of evidence that suggests the main reason he withheld the funds and WH meeting was to gain a political advantage in the next election.  For example, why would he make a public statement from Ukraine about opening the investigation a requirement before giving Ukraine a meeting in the White House?....

"Evidence that suggests" is not evidence.

You are trying to make inferences as to motive.



2053  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran on: January 04, 2020, 02:45:02 AM
I'm not sure what the alternative here was. Soleimani was a terrorist greater than Osama bin Laden who was involved in nearly 20% of the deaths during the Iraqi War. He has American blood on his hands and was continually coordinating terrorism attacks on U.S. troops. His killing was without a doubt the correct move. ....

Sounds like a de-escalation of tensions to me.
2054  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Is Global Warming Real? on: January 04, 2020, 02:39:45 AM
I have to admit to liking the spaghetti charts (lower right).

Because someone will throw that at you and say something like ...

"See? See it! It's right there!!!"

In that chart the lines are the climate models predictions, and the circles and squares lower on the chart are what the actual observations turned out to be..
Basically shows that they predict(ed) warming and it doesn't(didn't) happen..

Do you think that if I labeled the charts "Proof Of Global Warming" then they would run around posting it as proof of their position unknowingly? I bet some would, lol..
Actually the kind of guys that believe the propaganda definitely would. They truly want desperately to believe.
2055  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump does an Obama Trick, and Twitter has pronounced it as World War III on: January 04, 2020, 01:39:12 AM
...this act by US is a signal that a war is indeed coming......

No, it isn't. Does not work that way.

You see, we erased a guy that had been waging war for twenty years, who worked for a country that had been provoking us and others  for decades, both of whom thought they were getting away with it.

2056  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [POLL] WILL TRUMP BE ELECTED TO A SECOND TERM? on: January 03, 2020, 01:23:09 PM
don't believe any statistics you haven't falsified yourself, these are full of lies especially if you take cnn statistics. or msnbc

fivethirtyeight is extremely transparent about how they build their models and do a good job of explaining it in laymen terms.  
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/

These are data scientists ...


... And they are working in a biased environment.

Ever heard of double blind testing? Has it occurred to you THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A REASON WHY DOUBLE BLIND TESTING IS REQUIRED?

These assertions you have made are commonly heard, sure. But they are worthless, and we all know it.
Are you saying opinion polling in general is just useless?  Or that the guys that compile all the individual polls into a data set are useless?  

There's always a bias in any collection technique, and they are always conscious of it and working to minimize it. That's part of what goes into determining margin of error.

Do you think the bias involves the personal opinions of the polling companies? Liek they're doing it intentionally?  I know Trump loves to imply that it's the Cable News Networks just trying to make him look bad with polls, that's not how they work though.
I think you just need to at my question, about double blind. If you know statistics, testing and a bit about experiments and populations, your answer is right there.
2057  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [POLL] WILL TRUMP BE ELECTED TO A SECOND TERM? on: January 03, 2020, 12:36:01 AM
don't believe any statistics you haven't falsified yourself, these are full of lies especially if you take cnn statistics. or msnbc

fivethirtyeight is extremely transparent about how they build their models and do a good job of explaining it in laymen terms.  
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-state-of-the-polls-2019/

These are data scientists ...


... And they are working in a biased environment.

Ever heard of double blind testing? Has it occurred to you THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A REASON WHY DOUBLE BLIND TESTING IS REQUIRED?

These assertions you have made are commonly heard, sure. But they are worthless, and we all know it.
2058  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Donald Trump Impeachment Hearings [serious discussion] on: January 02, 2020, 07:34:21 PM
....

And on her official House.gov site she called for Trump to be censured: https://gabbard.house.gov/news/press-releases/rep-tulsi-gabbard-calls-house-censure-president-putting-personal-political-gain

She's basically saying "He obviously abused his power as president to gain an advantage in upcoming election, but it 'breaks her heart we are so divided' so lets just censure him instead".   <==that's me paraphrasing.  

Her arguments just don't make sense to me though.  ...

They make perfect sense to me. The House voting to censure would be a completed action with some political impact. (Based on lies by lying liars but that's beside the point.)

The House as-is voting to impeach makes them look totally like fools plus incompetent.

So why not just vote no? 
I agree with your opinion on that.

It seems pretty clear she's doing it for attention/political reasons.

In the midst of an ocean of baboons, she comes across as sane.
2059  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran on: January 02, 2020, 07:31:34 PM
Now that the elections are coming at 2020 he is going to be more offensive to foreign countries.
The US politicians especially the Republicans are feeding their voters and try to convince them by threatening other countries around the world in order to show them dominance. Trump is doing this as well now.

so the us is a nation that hates foreigners?

I think Naida's comments are sort of "generally true." But I do not think they apply to Trump, who has defused numerous international conflicts and who is more oriented toward tough trade deals than any sort of military posturing.
2060  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran on: January 02, 2020, 07:28:02 PM
Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost or damage incurred at any of our facilities. They will pay a very BIG PRICE. This is not a Warning, it is a Threat.

Note Source From : https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1212121026072592384

Not the response we were hoping for:

Quote
As Americans waited to see how the U.S. would respond to an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia’s embassy attack, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei taunted President Trump on Twitter Wednesday — taking Trump on at his own game.

“That guy (President Trump) has tweeted that we see Iran responsible for the events in Baghdad & we will respond to Iran. 1st: You can’t do anything. 2nd: If you were logical — which you’re not — you’d see that your crimes in Iraq, Afghanistan… have made nations hate you, If the Islamic Republic decides to challenge & fight, it will do so unequivocally. We’re not after wars, but we strongly defend the Iranian nation’s interests, dignity, & glory. If anyone threatens that, we will unhesitatingly confront & strike them." Khamenei’s official English-language Twitter account posted.

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/01/01/iran-supreme-leader-stokes-twitter-war-with-donald-trump/

Kim Jong Un also joined in taunting the United States a few days ago:

Quote
"we will never allow the impudent U.S. to abuse the DPRK-U.S. dialogue for meeting its sordid aim but will shift to a shocking actual action to make it pay for the pains sustained by our people so far and for the development so far restrained,”

I really hope the decisions Trump makes are based on the advice from top foreign policy experts and diplomats from the international community, or that at least someone convinces him that starting a war with Iran could hurt him politically.  Or at the very least not ignore the Joint Chiefs...

 looks like Trump managed to squeeze in 10 rounds of golf in the past 12 days: https://factba.se/topic/calendar, so the hands off approach is at least a possibility.  Hope it doesn't rain.

Damn. Yeah if it rained, they'd have time to stop the golf and those various leaders could go into a twitfest and next thing you know, the bombs and missiles would be flying. Or I forget, do we just twit now or do we do bombs and missiles?
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