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2141  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: ChipMixer.com has been seized. on: March 16, 2023, 03:49:52 AM
Does this imply that there are government agents who are reading our posts and following some accounts who might be a danger to society hehehee?

I would be more surprised if that wouldn't be the case, not as in an actual person browsing through the latest posts and searching for what this and that individual says about something but more likely bots that scan for keywords and trigger further analysis. I'm pretty sure they do so over other platforms too, but again all automatic and on bigger platforms they probably have it already built in.

Just as an example, Facebook has been doing surveillance on its chat since at least 2012, god knows how much earlier before they acknowledge.
https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/facebook-scans-chats-and-posts-for-criminal-activity/

That aside, I would love to see how much a government agent would last while reading the P&S board, the rate at which they would succumb to brain tumors would make them cancel human surveillance.
2142  Economy / Services / Re: [OPEN] Yo!Mix Bitcoin Mixer Signature Campaign| Reward up to $100/w | 2/2 escrow on: March 16, 2023, 01:59:46 AM
Current number of post (Including this one): 12767
Rank: Legendary
bech32 address: bc1q5wlj8t8pjp6qsmdphstfee5d3lvg9f25yw7mmj
Merit earned in the last 120 days: 341
2143  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Iconic billboard outside SVB on: March 15, 2023, 06:44:27 PM
This is done with purpose and surely the police department will be searching for the person who done it.

Why would the police search for him?
And even if he would have a reason, they were easy to find since they stayed all the time there, not just dumped the truck and run.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/11rkh9b/orange_pilling_silicon_valley_bank_today/
That parking lot is indeed the private property of SVB so indeed they could lawfully have asked them to live but that's it.

2144  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Europol Sezied 1909 BTC from "Chipmixer" on: March 15, 2023, 06:32:08 PM
I must say if something bad happens then we should not promote it.

Mixer avatar? Checked!
Mixer signature? Checked!
Doesn't that make sense? Checked!

Well look at it this way. They shut down Chipmixer, right? (And I'm still wearing this stupid signature until next week probably)

Speaking of, has anyone come up with some smart quote to replace the now not working links?
I tried to play with it to add a in memoriam or #privacy forever but it went so bad I just kept the old one.
2145  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: ChipMixer.com has been seized. on: March 15, 2023, 06:22:40 PM
both domains are off now by the way, it was a matter of hours

My bad, I saw it online and did the newbie mistake of mixing the chipmixerS domain with chipmixer on that list, since I thought it was online I was already sure it wasn't part of the original.
Makes me curious to see how many of them are still online now, but I'm not at my computer to check all those damn clones.

2146  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will (probably) go lower. on: March 15, 2023, 06:05:53 PM
I agree that perspective is definitely the case but that becomes a bit individualistic when you look at it. Just because bitcoin losing 2% is a big amount in GDP for Italy, doesn't mean that it is for UK, and just because 2% is bad for you, doesn't mean it is for me.

The 2% was not used as a comparison between two subjects at the same rate, it was a comparison of what 2% would mean now versus what 86% meant then, the income of a successful restaurant versus half of the GDP of a country. It's not 2% vs 2% .

Well I guess we'll agree to disagree then!

Not a bad deal, I've been in way too many discussions in which I couldn't even reach this point, the other poster not allowing me even to have a different opinion.

Either that or it's a massive coincidence that each time the inflation drops in half that price ends up in a bull market... which sure, why not, it could be. But otherwise with 50% less supply available to sell from miners, it's obvious to see why with a stable demand price would increase. It should only be by 2x logically speaking, but obvious Bitcoin's price movements aren't always very logical.

Or it's not a coincidence and it's triggered by the belief that the BTC will go up, with users buying in and thus themselves self-fulfilling their prophecies. If you have a ton user and hey all claim that when the halving will happen the price will go up and everybody expects that and is not selling then you have the perfect market conditions for a bull-run, but it's again created by beliefs nothing else.

And sure I don't deny that you could be right here, ie speculating that the scare of a recession was over that Bitcoin rebounded. But personally, I don't think that fear has really gone away yet.\

Well, this one we will see it now since I'm looking at WTI hitting $67, so let's see where it goes. Banks being bailed out was really a bumper here, a failure in doing so would have propelled BTC even with a recession incoming, so, uncharted territory here, I wouldn't be surprised to wake up at 20k or 40k and just raise an eyebrow with 10k more in each direction.

2147  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: ChipMixer.com has been seized. on: March 15, 2023, 05:27:56 PM

I'm still going through it, and saw this

Quote
As part of the FBI’s efforts to combat ransomware attacks against victims in the
United States, including the Eastern District of Pennsylvania (EDPA), the FBI became aware of
a cryptocurrency mixing service known as ChipMixer, operating through the following clearnet
domains and Tor sites:
a. clearnet: chipmixer.com
b. Tor: chipmixorflykuxu56uxy7gf5o6ggig7xru7dnihc4fm4cxqsc63e6id.onion
c. clearnet: chipmixer.io
Case 2:23-mj-00528 Document 1 Filed 03/14/23 Page 12 of 60
12
d. Tor: chipmixerwzxtzbw.onion
e. clearnet: chipmixer.club
f. Tor: qw6xpezaqb57xsviksbsbjlrftevt52s7baaxiubwb6mkpwkqcfdppqd.onion

The second domain is still up and doing a redirect, not seized at all, they were known scams, how did they reach the conclusion they were the same?

Quote
Records from Google for the account jamessmithhelp@gmail.com revealed location history data. From September 2016 through March 2022, there were 149,027 data points associated to the account that resolved in and around Ha Noi, Vietnam.

Damn, just makes you wodner how much data they collect!
2148  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: ChipMixer.com has been seized. on: March 15, 2023, 04:46:11 PM
~snip~
Any solid reason for them to seize bitcointalk.org?

As if they need a solid reason to do something, they can just do it for any reason.

Exactly, they don't need a reason and furthermore, they are able to invent a myriad of them on the spot.

But it makes no sense, the backslash would be too enormous for this and would yield basically nothing, let's not forget the forum is not even close to being completely anonymous, it's behind Cloudflare just to give an example, plus a few of the participants here leave so many traces that probably the most incompetent agency in the world would be able to track them, just grab addresses and force exchanges to disclose who has used it if they are theirs.




2149  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin Unit Bias on: March 15, 2023, 03:57:15 PM
Have you ever encountered a person with unit bias in bitcoin and how did you help them reframe their thoughts?

I have encountered tons even here, it's something normal, and people try to perceive things as a whole.
They think of buying one share of something or buying one whole house, it goes a bit outside the normal daily life of most to buy fractions of something. Of course, the whole thing is a bit ridiculous, especially if we look at gold since some buy x grams of gold and others buy x ounces, so some might not buy a full unit of what others consider a default unit to be.

But there is another thing that goes along this perception, they look at BTC and see 20k and it sounds nearly impossible for them to picture it going to 10x or 50x the price as then we talk about millions. But if you look for example at that meme coin which is $0.00001047 of a dollar, then it's easy to dream of it worth $0.1 or 100x, it's this perspective that helps shitcoins grow and find investors.
2150  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SVB collapse, maybe there were crypto startups. on: March 15, 2023, 03:19:33 PM
mostly SVB deposits are of startups and businesses, so, some of them may be crypto startups,
Quote
Silicon Valley Bank Contagion: Crypto Companies Affected Include BlockFi, Circle, Avalanche, Ripple
https://decrypt.co/123199/silicon-valley-bank-crypto-companies-contagion

Let's pause a moment and think of the irony that crypto start-ups are holding their funds in a bank in $.
Unfortunately, it shows the not so good side of things, that we're still deeply anchored in the system, no matter what "revolutionizing" projects claim, it's still a fiat deal behind all of them.


2151  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: [ANN] ChipMixer.com - Bitcoin mixer / Bitcoin tumbler - mixing reinvented on: March 15, 2023, 01:28:21 PM
Well, at least they acknowledge something:
Quote
A service available both on the clear and on the darkweb, ChipMixer offered full anonymity to their clients.

And I love the use of "suggest, may, possibility" when mentioning every single thing.

7TB seems too much even if they were logging every chip. Honestly no idea what that could be.

I was about to say the same, but there are 4 servers mentioned, I imagine 2 TB of those would be nodes?
2152  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: Am selling bitcoin for a discount on: March 14, 2023, 06:13:20 PM
"account"?

So that means you're selling the same account you're trying to get a loan on for, or basically a few worthless numbers in an account over at a scammy exchange.

The collateral crypto is BTC worth $1500 the btc is on the platform https://dex-coinby.com/ please sign up send your addresse and I will transfer the collateral to you

30 days old domain, the about us page is telling:
https://dex-coinby.com/about

Quote
Our company begins its history from June 2018, when it was developed.



2153  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: While Everyone was Talking about El Salvador! We forgot about Guatemala on: March 14, 2023, 05:56:03 PM
I didn't know about Guatemala and I haven't seen anything about it in our local board (Spanish). I suppose we have no active member from Guatemala there.

Do we have any members from Salvador?
I've never seen at least one post about a guy that was living there and telling his experience, all we got to date, or at least those I stumbled upon are stories from people who traveled there, which is not really giving the right perception.

How about Central African Republic? It made Bitcoin legal tender about less than one year after El Salvador. People less discuss about that nation and I am not surprised to see they less discuss about Guatemala.

Because they don't have a president that is active on Twitter with laser eyes posting BTC memes.
If you take that away from Salvador and start discussing numbers only it becomes just as boring as CAR or Guatemala or any other country.


 
2154  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: March 14, 2023, 05:38:30 PM
Latest Block:   780792  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   111.8988%  (601 / 537.09 expected, 63.91 ahead)

So finally backtracking a bit and as the math of probabilities starts tempering it down, I don't think any miner could be shutting down now that he has 20% more revenue. Still going up compared to the previous diff, 46,58, 63 blocks ahead but the rhythm of the growth might finally take a break.

Now, the funny question is, how much gear was offline at 6 cents/th, it's still sitting in the same warehouse ready to be deployed, and is profitable at ~9 cents/th? The s17 only needs 9 cents per kWh to start being profitable again at those levels, if the price keeps going up, are we going to see the biggest bump in terms of exahash (not %) ever?

imagine flicking the on switch to 1000000 s19's at will!!!  Grin

And turning NYC into Pyongyang at night  Grin

2155  Economy / Economics / Re: Is this what awaits us? on: March 14, 2023, 05:10:16 PM
The image shows the exchange price between Weimar Republic marks in the hyperinflationary period and gold. As can be seen, the marks ended up losing almost 100% of their value and in comparison the price of gold went into the stratosphere. But the process was not a straight line, rather there were sharp drawdown and a lot of volatility:

First thing first, both the Weimar inflation and the Hungarian '46 inflation which goes unnoticed although it had been the worst in history over a smaller time frame, the Venezuelan crash, the Zimbabwe money printing were all localized issues.
Troubled countries, in most serious cases after a devastating war, were forced to pay preparations in a currency they couldn't get ahold of it and were forced to print more and more money to pay that up. Nothing of that scale is happening right now, the only similar example is that of Iran which is doing the same, printing money to buy needed $ but on fall smaller scale, still losing 95% in 6 years but not on those figures.

But I love how things change, after 1 year of painful bear markets one huge jump and everyone is again talking about the death of paper money and banks, the bears have left for their dens, it's party time!

2156  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will (probably) go lower. on: March 14, 2023, 04:54:45 PM
Gonna go out on a limb and say -86% is the worst bear market so far, but only based on that graphic.
Where did the -93% from $31 to $2 bear market go though? Apparently it didn't happen??

It did, just because most charts begin in 2013 or 2015 doesn't mean it didn't happen
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2011/10/bitcoin-implodes-down-more-than-90-percent-from-june-peak/

So, by your own argument and logic, every 2.2% correction or downtrend that Bitcoin has (at current prices) is worst than the -86% drop that happened in 2014/2015?

As I said, it all depends who makes the statistics and what's his position.
For extreme bitcoiners, 1BTC=1BTC so they are both the same, for the one holding 1BTC donated by Satoshi from the start he lost once a pizza  now he lost a VW golf, for the one holding $10k obviously this one is better cause he lost 7500$ but still it was supposed to still have 10k in purchasing power no mater the inflation.

Let's see what's worse, some kids playing with lunch money losing 30$ per BTC, or bitcoin reaching $1m and a 2% erasing the GDP of Italy in one cough? As I said, a thing of perspective. And since we're at this point, do you think those magical cycles will keep on even at that time and erase something the size of the US economy in a few months? Or that the cycles will evaporate by then, cause that was the design, 9 80% drops for the mortal men doomed to die watching charts?  Grin

I rest my case. Still waiting for a relevant argument as to why high inflation is bad for Bitcoin  Cheesy

Argument? No, it's not a thing of arguments, what I'm pointing out is an observable event, It went down just as the others in conditions that went against what it was perceived to be. This is what we're arguing here, you think that no matter inflation or deflation bitcoin goes in circles like some sun cycles beyond our power, I'm pointing out that it went down in a high inflation period only to stop falling at the end of it when the scare was over.
I'm telling you the kid fell down because it hit that stair, you're telling me he always falls every 10 minutes.
2157  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin will (probably) go lower. on: March 13, 2023, 05:34:17 PM
Had to wait till I have some more time for the reply, you little JJJ clone  Cheesy

~

Technically not every bearish CPI announcement caused another dump, this is just retrospectively what people perceived to have happened. Can give examples if required...

If the CPI announcement was worse than predicted or it signaled for sure another increase it did trigger a dump, I made that my hobby of having an alarm set for every date, and it never disappointed. The fact that the dump was erased later on, yeah I can agree it bounced back but always when the data was bad news there was an initial red dildo clear as the sky is blue.

I'm not just saying this in hindsight, I stated numerous times in different threads that either $25K breaks and we go to $30K, or we go back to $20K...

As later on this post, you're starting to look at this like no matter if an asteroid hits the planet or a ww3 starts, if the price doesn't go to $30k and it drops to 20000$ it's because of a TA and some lines not because of nukes flying.

So does this then mean that Bitcoin's rise in 2021 was due to impending high inflation (after post covid19 money printing etc)? I'm not very convinced, again, I think this is just 4-year all over again.

Why not blame the rise on normal growth, growth that was supposed to happen as adoption or investment grew themselves and that probably wouldn't have stopped so abruptly in the first place? Why not blame the premature stop on inflation and why not blame the lack of growth while getting more and more exposure to the current bad situation? Tesla shares performed best in their history once Covid entered the scene, does this mean without a new virus spreading around they will return to the same linear pattern as in previous years?

Hey, what's going on with Bitcoin? I thought BTC was correlated with Nasdaq but is currently up 18% over weekend while Nasdaq is flat since Friday! It's almost like Bitcoin is correlated with Nasdaq until it's no longer correlated with Nasdaq...

Of course, and I'm one of the happiest about it, probably I forgot to mention but I like more the aspect of being able to use BTC as a means of payment and safe storage of wealth than gambling on exchanges and the whole asset point. Just because I was pointing out how the correlation happened and how it went against the whole idea of being a hedge against inflation doesn't mean I was happy even at the moment with it.

A bank failing and the exact tool designed against this acting like it's being affected just as worse by it would be beyond stupid, in the current situation if it would have performed the same it would have been really like the world taking another piss on the whole thing

2022-2023 bear market (with high inflation): Bitcoin drops -77% from ATH after approx one year.
~
For clarity, I'm not questioning why Bitcoin has dropped -77% since ATH, as to me it seems obvious (in hindsight) that this is what Bitcoin does every 4 years and has done so for 12.

You're again oversimplifying things, what was 2021 then?
Was it a bear market since we dropped from 60k, or was it a bull market since we went from 2x?
Again making it sound like this was written in stone it had to go down ~70% because that's what bitcoin does, the trend has already been broken, the second rise over a previous ATH in less than a year, the drop below a previous ATH, you can choose to ignore it but are clear signs history has getting tired of repeating the same story.

Probably you're used to this:

Which one of them was worse?

And to combine this with your other question.
That  86% drop erased $10 billion of value, the current one erased $800 billion!
So... Cheesy Did it really perform better? Mark Twain might have something to say about those statistics and percentages.
2158  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Technology to aid bitcoin mining on: March 13, 2023, 04:10:25 PM
But as far as I know bitcoin machine today is already efficient if we can look at the past

Antminer S1 Spec
Hash rate: 180 GH/S
Power consumption: about 360 W from the wall
Power efficiency: 2 W/GH/s on wall

Today Antminer S19XP

Model   S19 XP
Hashrate, TH/s   141 ±3%
Power on wall @25°C, Watt   3031.5 ±5%
Power efficiency on wall @25°C, J/TH   21.5 ±5%

Half a year after the S1 (let's give it time to get installed but not before the new version) was launched the hashrate was 100PH, which roughly makes 500k miners at 360W, that's 180 MW.
Let's take the recent one with the current hashrate (thus ignoring the growth it will bring while it's replacing every older gear) and we have at least 2 million at 3000W, that's 6 GW.

So, with all the efficiency gain instead of 180MW you have 6000MW, that's a 33x increase in power draw, but far more likely it's a 50x.

2159  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2023 Diff thread now opened. on: March 13, 2023, 04:00:29 PM
Well it's below 14% now, but as usual, taking any notice of it early on is as pointless as trusting what that site says Smiley

And it's back over! 46 blocks ahead last night 58 now.
As I said many times before I don't care that much about their prediction at the end of the period, I'm watching the blocks getting mined and when you constantly have an increase in those although it doesn't mean for sure the period will end like this, every single day makes the opposite less and less likely.

But just as mikey said I wonder if it's even physically possible anymore to have the same pattern as in one of the previous adjustments when again it started with the same almost unbelievable 10% and kept it going till the end. The whole thing is getting ridiculous, 300k miners, one GW in one go just like that?

Anyhow, let's look at the bright side, 58 vMB of extra sanctions getting confirmed, it did help the mempool a lot.
2160  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: NFTs in the Bitcoin blockchain - Ordinal Theory on: March 13, 2023, 03:44:58 PM
If you think the majority supports ordinals, why don't you create a poll on this and we'll see who's the majority?  Grin  
I'd gladly fork this crap off immediately but unfortunately I'm not a core dev so all I can do is urge people to act responsibly (rarely works).  Roll Eyes

Why don't you do it?
Cause you're the one bitching around for a change!
It's you who wants to change something based on the will of "the people", not me!

~
Where did he state that the majority supports Ordinals, and since when is bitcointalk the gate to the majority?

Eh, just as how they think they are the voice of the majority they also must invent adversaries to blame them for their failures, I got used to this.

Bigger blocks does not necessarily mean cheaper transactions, if you want to count them in dollars, including all costs. As an experiment, you can compare for example BTC (where mempool congestion can happen) with BCH (where hard-fork can always increase the maximum block size, so you can pay one satoshi per byte, and get it confirmed). Then, you can look at on-chain fees, it will turn out that BTC is more expensive to transact on-chain. And then, you can compare the price of both coins in dollars. You will see that the price change is more costly than transaction fees, and it is very unlikely to find a case, where you pick some starting date and amount, you pick some frequency of transactions (for example, one transaction per day), and in some long period of time you will end up with a higher amount in dollars for BCH than BTC.

Sorry but almost nobody cares about anything else than the price per tx in $, the same the "we" whoever they are don't care even about the sat/b fee, all they know is that to send money they need to pay x $ and it's a pretty normal thing, just throwing random numbers here do you think a 500 million RON house is expensive or that paying 1 million Vietnamese dongs for a burger is cheap? Without checking how much that is in your local currency of course you won't know it! All those users who bitch about fees want to pay $0.00025 as the are fees now over the meme coin while the cheapest one in BTC in last block is $0.24, nothing else.

And if we bring security and stuff in the equation then we're back to what Phil said and which probably too many ignored:

in 2056 if fees do not grow and efficiency doubles we can have 640 eh hashrate mining .
the value of the vault and guards protecting the 40 trillion cap will be the same 6-13 billion that protects the network now.

So, to make things clear and show a better picture, you will have a network worth the GDP of EU, USA and China combined, protected by gear worth the budget of Charlotte. Yeah, the price keeps the reward up by negating the halving, but you have more and more value pilling up with the same protection, and hash rate alone as in exahash or petahash doesn't mean a thing when you don't factor in how much it cost!
Because if now at 300exh it cost 5 billion to attack it then obviously at 150Th/s in 2013 you could attack it for $2500? Oh wait!

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