Here is a full link for you https://www.betmoose.com/bet/monero-xmr-dumped-below-0_00321-again-before-april-20-1837?ref=regexlove(You can also set a browser extention to switch off javascript for bit.ly links and others)1 week technical analysis doesnt matter for long term holders. Pumps can look like common patterns. The point is, they are rather short. Monero is a hit-or-miss game Why do you care about keeping the price up today, instead of getting closer to the average, when the current volume and price are hysteric form a long term holder's point of view? It is generally not benefitial for serious long term assets to be made looking like gambling For long term relevance, you'd rather refer to a long term chart. Is it a neutral/positive/negative/turning trend? Independently of trend, why do you think the yellow EMA will not cross the brown EMA again soon? https://i.imgur.com/Tt8tZ3T.pngInteresting. I suppose it is possible to short it down to .00321 within 4 weeks, but with the trend upward across cryptoland, and current polo order book sitting at 626 BTC support at that level (174k XMR - also happens to be typical available lending float) as of this post, it does seem unlikely. On the other hand, if the trend falters, the shorting wolves tend to pile on quickly, so I wouldn't count it out. I would tend to take the other side of the bet, though. |
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I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too:
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client). Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days). I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line.
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support. Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves.
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems. I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.
There is already a GUI I am using it working fine. You still should run a local Monero node but can use the LightWallet2 GUI. If you are using Windows download Monero client at https://getmonero.org/downloads/ unzip to a folder on your desktop. Run bitmonerod until the blockchain is synched. You will also need to download LightWallet2 at https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose. Download the LightWallet.exe and put in your Monero folder. While bitmonerod is running in a command console and synced messsage shows start up Lightwallet by clicking on the exe in your Monero folder and follow instructions. Now you have the privacy of a local Monero node with a GUI to send and receive Monero. So that's your answer: download the blockchain and run a full node. Sir, did you not see the word "n00b" that American Pegasus typed with his hot little fingers? Don't you realize that the vast majority of people have no idea of even how to approach such a task? It is foreign to all but a tiny subset of the population. You, monsieur, occupy a very small nerd-world. I'm a total noob to CLI. I did it with the only hiccups related to my internet (so called)connection. It isn't anywhere near as difficult as I had led myself to believe. windows: click download. click unzip. click bitmonerod. wait for sync. click simplewallet. follow prompts and you're there. It tells you what to type to issue commands. that's basically it. Lots of help available if you run into issues. I wouldn't want to talk my 72 y.o. mother through it, but almost anyone else can do it, I'm sure. It DOES scare people away but the GUI is coming Soon tm |
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You're going to need 100K+ coins to make much of a (momentary) dent, but please, borrow mine  |
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I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too:
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client). Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days). I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line.
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support. Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves.
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems. I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.
I had the same dilemma. I had a substantial (for me) sum on polo and mymonero, and wasn't really happy about it. I was waiting (procrastinating) to get a new SSD for my desktop, and install/learn Linux before setting up a node and trying the CLI wallet. The new database with Hydrogen Helix release allowed me to forge ahead though, even with my weak little laptop, and simplewallet really is simple. It took seconds after download to be up and running (a lot longer to sync blockchain, of course). GUI will be HUGE, IMO, but for just safe storage, and not regular usage, CLI is not so bad even for me. In fact, just messing around with it since install I have expanded my horizons considerably. Not to saddambitcoin's admirable extent, but with his inspirational story, who knows! |
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And.Here.We.Go!
Go where? Back to $416? We left? When? Where did we go? Everywhere we go, there we are? |
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I would suggest taking a stop back and looking at the volume levels in the weekly chart. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc both in terms of XMR and the XBT. The volume numbers since February 2016 are consistently way higher by approximately a factor of 4 than the historical levels going back to 2014. This is indicative of a fundamental change in over the last two months. As RingCT approaches I think volume has the potential to go much higher. I have looked at ZCash very closely and still find Monero much more attractive. If a reasonable percentage of the people hearing about ZCash this summer prior to its release perform due diligence, I think a lot of new interest in Monero will result. So we won't count on any new interest from that quarter. Volume throughout cryptoland has been through the roof this year. Monero awoke from its slumber with the Hydrogen Helix release, but didn't launch until early February when everything started to explode. Awesome timing, devs. 0.9 has made it so much easier to get involved. So many things coming together in 2016. |
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Demand is high, and supply has left the building.
Seems to be some supply, 300 btc to 434 and 675 btc to 500. Ofc it will take more than that. Just redeemed the deposit bottles I collected after people threw them away and bought a couple of lottery tickets for tonight's drawing with the proceeds. I was thinking more along the lines of daily emission. Current levels are less than half 2/3 of what they were last time price was at this level, and pretty much every other variable also favorable. Overall supply is of course higher, but plenty are removed from the market once bought, and won't be seen again for some time. edit- read it wrong |
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My investments will be worth more by then.
I'd advise to stay rational here, there is a large probability that they will be worth less. Both XMR and BTC have an extremely large drawdown. But we are already quite low compared to where we will be  Demand is high, and supply has left the building. |
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Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?
I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending. Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting. If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees. I was pretty surprised to be so wrong. But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means! Why so many willing lenders with no takers? I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period? 0.1% x 2 days x 1000 XMR less 15% fee would be more like 1.7 XMR. nothing to get too excited about today. Right, I skipped a zero there, but that's what I was expecting, yet I had something like 80 more XMR than what I thought I had on Polo. Not sure what's up. Maybe I had an open order for a buy that I'd forgotten about, but that would be really rare. I dunno. I'm tired today. Brain not working well, and I've been deeply immersed in some spreadsheets for a consulting project I'm doing. 80 more is so much better than 80 fewer. Just take it and smile  |
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Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?
I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending. Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting. If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees. I was pretty surprised to be so wrong. But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means! Why so many willing lenders with no takers? I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period? 0.1% x 2 days x 1000 XMR less 15% fee would be more like 1.7 XMR. nothing to get too excited about today. |
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If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).
I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending. I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself. Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders? What should I look for in offering an average loan? Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm? Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up? Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly. Im way small fish and less expert than you, so I donīt have a sound strategie to offer you but... donīt you worry about your moneros not been returned back?. Since I learned that the leans are not 100% guarateed I just reduced this risk to the max... I offer some BTC at exhorbitant rates from time to time, but I sleep better when they are under my control (well... Polo control) It is a risk that short positions lent out will not be returned. But once an exchange allows this to happen it loses it's reputation and customers. Let's see how monero does in the next few months as the bitcoin halving approaches. The fairytale ending to this year would be a halving pump to 750-1200 with a 10x rise in monero. I am fairly sure this will not happen  . 3x XBT compounded with 10X XMR from here would likely induce me to redistribute a small percentage of my moneroj, and increase market making activity. I think if XBT were to ATH it would overshoot substantially though. If it really starts to move, 6-10X wouldn't surprise me. XMR is a wild card. Certainly there is room for that kind of growth. Look at the valuations of shitcoins. The market will bear an impressive amount once FOMO kicks in. Better to maintain a controlled pace though, rather than shoot over the moon only to crash back to earth, wrecking little people late to the party. Higher XMR valuation should mean accelerated development (donations are worth more) for a nice effect. Waiting and seeing |
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Curious observation:
Block reward seems to stick for 3 or 4 blocks before reducing (c 1011075 level), and is far less dusty than before (round to 4 decimal places). Is that by design? Should help with dust accumulation in wallets, I imagine.
edit:
back to 12 decimal dust for one block, then back to rounding and repeating...
Possibly the following explains it.....
3. Minimum mixin requirement on all transactions (with some special exceptions for existing "dust")
4. No new "dust" allowed.
Where can I find the definition of "dust"? Mostly in the code. The idea is anything not conforming to N * 10^M where N is 1-9 and M is an integer. Since these values are limited in number within the range of plausible amounts (a total of 181 are currently possible but some of these are implausible) there will always be available outputs of the same size to mix with, in turn allowing mixing to be required. Unfortunately there were a few edge cases not handled correctly and some new dust will be created in some cases, but the amount will be vastly reduced. This will need to be cleaned up in the next fork. The other definition, of amounts that are simply "small" (such as 10^-12) we are allowing to be handled on an economic level for now. For example, miners are allowed to claim less than the full reward if they like, which means they can exclude the very small outputs. This makes their coinbase transaction smaller, which means it will verify and propagate faster (and of course leaves more room for fee-paying transactions). By default this is cutoff at 10^-5 but that is not forced, if miners disagree with that value they can change it.And if I was paying attention, I would have remembered that. Thanks |
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The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.
That is certainly possible and I think the .01 level is reachable as well, especially once the GUI is out. That said, I think the days of pricing alts and Cryptos in BTC is going to come to an end. We should start looking at things in terms of USD or local currencies and for many reasons. BTC is in an explosive triangle right now, near the end of it. If it breaks up, perhaps the alts follow. I think Monero has a valuation this year of between $3 and $5, perhaps more, but there are so many factors involved. .... unfortunately i can not agree with this argument.... Take a look at the BTC industry with for example miners built by some cooperations, investing certain ammounts to prosper from the system (<- the believe). Take a look at exchanges rating BTC as their anchor currency. Nearly every market, wether dark or not, is based on BTC. We can discuss about BTC or BTCclassic, but BTC as a business will not die. I believe altcoins like Monero will catch up their position and will compete, maybe overtake BTC by 2020, but BTC has a very strong stake and argument in the community and society. And honestly, trading is based on the believe of worth for virtualities which by them selfs have absolutely no worth. So this implicates, if people believe in the worth of something, than this something will gain worth and vice versa. If you want to destroy the worth of a virtual something, than you have to destroy the believe in it (like massmedia does the whole time on BTC) Quite simply, if BTC does explode up, I just don't see the alts following (unless their is utility or feverish speculation, which is possible once the public catch on.) If BTC suddenly goes to 1200 USD, does that mean XMR, ETH, etc. all go up app 3X in value as well? Time will tell. The only real comparison I can think of is this: http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltimeRecall November 2013 LTC reaction. I think it is a case of a rising tide, and all that. Correlation may not be fixed, but in general, I expect all to rise, perhaps with some distortion in time or degree. |
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Curious observation:
Block reward seems to stick for 3 or 4 blocks before reducing (c 1011075 level), and is far less dusty than before (round to 4 decimal places). Is that by design? Should help with dust accumulation in wallets, I imagine.
edit:
back to 12 decimal dust for one block, then back to rounding and repeating...
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The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.
Well, 0,0049 should be possible at the end of the weekend, if i take a look at the buyside of the orderbook on polo  is it dangerous to buy XMR now i miss the 25 price and is there any possibility for the prices to reach 50 in the coming weeks thanks Exact timing is difficult, but I would bet that now is better than 2 weeks from now. A little every day will average nicely. Use your way-back-machine and start Dec 31 2015 |
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Whats the emission now guys
last block 13.4421 Thanks Note block time now 2 minutes, spreadsheet is est on 1 min block time... |
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Whats the emission now guys
last block 13.4421 |
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About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.
Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!
I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.
Awesome. |
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Monero is definetly the coin to be in for the next couple weeks years, mark my words!
FTFY And look at that depth chart on polo LOL green wall going vertical |
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XMR loan offered at 0.0051%. Clearly somebody doesn't understand. I get more than that on my bank account LOL
Sometimes those are auto renew. May have been set up a while back when the rates were much lower, and left unattended. Every time it is paid back it will continue to be offered again at the same low rate regardless of market conditions. Understood, but the question remains. What is the point of offering free loans? Some may make a case for cheap loans. But that is ridiculous. Imagine offering a 100k free 2-day loan and somebody takes it. After 2 days you change the rate to something much higher. The guy is now forced to pay very high rates or close his position. Not saying that is the case here, but it could be one justifiable reason for offering "free" loans. That does make sense, as you would only have to catch a tiny portion of the rebound to make some money. Or use it to manipulate market price and make your money there. |
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