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261  Other / Politics & Society / Re: The Kracken! on: December 01, 2020, 08:39:24 PM
https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-elections-william-barr-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d

I remember distinctly liberals throwing a tantrum that Bill Barr was going to look for election irregularities or fraud using the Justice department.

Now they celebrate they found nothing and are using this to demonstrate no election fraud. I don't think there was fraud, to be clear, but I also remember how people thought Trump was weaponizing his DoJ, so you really can't win.

Yeah this is one of the things that I'll never understand about both sides.

Bill Barr was a conservative hero for the longest time. People on the left were saying that he was 'weaponizing' the DOJ to be used against people. Now that he's done something that is not for Trump, that means that he is right and all is well? Like come on folks it can't really be like that. Not everything is as cut and dry as: If he is agreeing with me then he is right, If is he is disagreeing with me when he is a fascist who is using the DOJ to takeover the country and hand it over to King Trump.

Cuts both ways, and it's TOTALLY NOT just liberals that are doing that.

Like....what the fuck?
262  Economy / Gambling / Re: Sportsbooks that aren’t paying out on Biden winning the US Presidential Election on: December 01, 2020, 05:40:24 PM
Donald Trump still controls the base off the party, they still love him and will continue to stand with him. There's no way for either one of us to know at this very moment who is right though, going to have to wait until after January on this one.
This article is just one of many examples why the Republicans are worried about Trump.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/11/30/us/politics/georgia-republicans-trump-kemp.amp.html

He is growing paranoid with every passing day and it's only a matter of time before more and more Republicans lose faith in him. They will probably find a much better replacement in first half of 2021.

Oh I totally know that they are worried as we've seen story after story about that, but all of these worries have been made privately as it is NOT popular within the Republican party to go against Trump and it most likely wont be for sometime. His support will erode over time, though once Biden begins to act like a Dem and does some of the leftward shift stuff Trump, or someone like him, is going to gain relevance again.

It's understandable right now to be like -- What the fuck, Trump is crazy and there's no chance he can continue to lead this party. But the guy literally just did a hostile takeover of the party and is a reason for a lot of down the ballot Republicans to even have a job right now. (Ex: See Ron DeSantis, as he would never be the Florida Gov if not for the Trump endorsement)

263  Economy / Gambling / Re: Sportsbooks that aren’t paying out on Biden winning the US Presidential Election on: December 01, 2020, 08:08:20 AM
Even if you're a die hard Trump supporter why not put your money on Biden to recover your losses or invest in Bitcoin instead?
Firstly, they care more about Trump recovering his presidency than recovering their own money. Also, the odds on a Trump win right now are very high which is why they would need to invest small amounts in order to win big.

Most hardcore Trump supporters won't be able to digest the truth right away and will need time to get their head around it based on what I am observing.

Trump will maintain his grip over the party through doing this. Raising money and continuing to build his contacts that he'll be able to use when the midterms come around.
I disagree. Trump has lost his grip over his own family. Most republicans are probably focusing on a new nominee since Trump has embarrassed them by becoming the first President to not concede honorably in US history.

Not sure if we're watchin the same post election analysis stuff, but even though he's it's been awhile since a first term president has lost (First Bush), it hasn't caused every single GOP Senator to revolt against him. Pretty sure at this very moment more members of the GOP Senate delegation have had COVID then have called on Trump to concede (heard it a few days ago, could be wrong now)

Donald Trump still controls the base off the party, they still love him and will continue to stand with him. There's no way for either one of us to know at this very moment who is right though, going to have to wait until after January on this one.
264  Economy / Gambling / Re: Sportsbooks that aren’t paying out on Biden winning the US Presidential Election on: December 01, 2020, 07:40:45 AM
Every single news outlet is reporting that Biden is the winner and I’ve seen his speech.  



News are not deciding who wins elections, and this is not the first time something like this happens.
Better turn off TV and mainstream media, because they did wrong predictions many times, and even announced Gore as president one time, and they also miserably predicted all polls before elections.
FTX is still allowing users to decide and keep their bet on presidential elections.

The difference is that the Gore-Bush election was decided by a single state and the margin was extremely close. Trump is not going to overturn the results with more states involved and with bigger margins.

The media isn't just making things up out of thin air. They're going by the results being reported by state governments. That's how elections work. Of course the next step is to certify the results and wait for the electoral college to make it official but I don't see why casinos have to wait that long because at that point it's a foregone conclusion what will occur. We already have all the evidence we need to determine that Biden will be the next president.

For what it's worth:  that's a fake headline that the Trump campaign was spreading to discredit the media.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-headline/fact-check-the-washington-times-president-gore-headline-is-fake-idUSKBN27P216

They did call Florida for Bush too early, and then Gore conceded only to later retract.  This all went down during election night though - not a comparable situation really.

Besides, the only thing you need to trust to know who won the election is a calculator.



Saw this. We all know the reasoning behind this wasn't to get a better shot at winning in the courts, as the courts aren't going to care about anything relating to fake news. They're going to care about substance of the allegations, which there has not been any.

The reason for this is so Trump can enrage the base and make some of them feel like there is still a chance - which is the reason for 60-70% of Republicans thinking that voter fraud was common and the reason for Biden winning this election.

Trump will maintain his grip over the party through doing this. Raising money and continuing to build his contacts that he'll be able to use when the midterms come around.
265  Other / Politics & Society / Re: DoD vs. CIA firefight in Frankfurt as covert war against the deep state RAGES on: December 01, 2020, 07:24:55 AM
Hey BADecker, you're slacking with your conspiratardery copypasta - where is the one about Obama being arrested? I thought that would be the Kraken to end all Krakens... no?

I'm really amazed that people even believe all of this stuff. I knew that it was shared amongst like far right people on Facebook, but never really thought anyone actually thought all of it was real. Boy was I wrong.

If this whole DOD vs CIA story was real, wouldn't at least Donald Trump be posting about it on his twitter? Or at least some of his advisors talking about how there is some sort of coup going on with the deep state and how they're trying to stop it?

Never really understand these things because they place Trump at this God / King status where he is the one stopping everything but isn't talking about it.
266  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Election Is Over What Next? on: December 01, 2020, 07:14:04 AM
....

Great thing about the Trump administration was that Trump would literally tweet his thoughts at all time and anything remotely secretive would be leaked. ...

Really?

Yep. You've surely seen his Twitter, right?

Trump is a lose cannon and will tweet out his foreign policy or criticism of Republicans in congress so we don't have to guess where he is on an issue.

And of course, his administration couldn't keep anything secret.

Not sure I would say anything remotetly secretive, unless I'm missing something that he'd leaked regarding security / foreign policy / whatever on his twitter.

But in regards to him tweeting out things that were on his brain, that was true. Guy would leave people within his own administration scratching their head as they now had to take whatever he said on twitter and turn it into action. Always caused some issues for Congressional Republicans as they weren't always up to date with what the President was going to do next.
267  Other / Politics & Society / Re: US Elections 2020 - very self such moderated on: December 01, 2020, 06:47:14 AM
Trump underperformed the down-ballot candidates almost everywhere. If the election stands, voters will have voted against Trump, rather than for Biden.

Loeffler should handily win as her opponent is especially radical in a Red state. Loeffler and Collins received a total of ~56% of votes, while her opponent only received ~32.9% of the vote.

There will be a show of force of fake votes, as they figure that after Joe and Hoe take office nobody will come after them and their vote fraud.

I suspect it'll be pretty much right out in the open.

What if the fraud actually helped Trump and Biden really won by more?

That is not what the forensic analysis by The Kraken shows.

I mean in the real world.  You know the Kraken isn't real, right?  It's a myth.

The fuck is the Kraken anyway? -- The news outlet(?), not the myth.

But in any case, state after state is currently certifying the results for Biden and the race is over. That's the end of it for Trump and there is pretty much no way to move forward with the whole -- convince the state electors to not certify the results, or something along those lines. We're at the point of no return. Donald Trump will leave the WH in January and that'll be that.

Guy will totally still be active in politics, will totally buy a media outlet or start his own and then build it up. Will be a force in the GOP as well as down the ballot Republicans know that he is the reason for the base support.
268  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump (GSA) clears the way for Biden Transition to begin on: November 27, 2020, 11:35:19 PM
....
Ah, well that's a way to make illegal immigration a major issue for 2024 once Coronavirus dies down in the next year or so.

The Democrats have favored open borders in the last several years, but they didn't use to be very different than Republicans on these issues.

"Open Borders" is really an attempt to destroy the USA as we know it.

Open Borders is one of those things that both parties actually like.

Republicans and big businesses get illegal / cheap employees that can further bring down labor costs for their mega companies. Democrats get people who are most likely going to align with their policies and get more voters.

It's an unwritten alliance and it's pretty sad that it exists, but it does. This is referencing the Uniparty, not anything further then that.
269  Other / Politics & Society / Supreme Court Cuomo Religious Decision on: November 26, 2020, 07:14:04 AM
Thought that the Supreme Courts latest case regarding New York Coronavirus restrictions was important for everyone to hear about:

In a 5-4 decision, decided by ACB (Trumps newest nominee), in a decision favorable to both the Catholic Church and Orthodox Jewish Synagogues. The case surrounds Governor Cuomos order relating to places of worship where he placed a 10 and 25 person occupancy limit. The court said that this violated the first amendment and the majority stated that there was no evidence saying that the applicants contributed to the spread of COVID and that less restrictive rules could have been adopted to minimize the risk to those attending religious services.

John Roberts, the Chief Justice, dissented and voted with the liberal members of the court.

https://www.axios.com/supreme-court-blocks-new-york-covid-restrictions-7d101314-0a06-48c2-ba62-c4fa2e8297bd.html
270  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How will Trump leave the White House? on: November 26, 2020, 07:07:05 AM
Trump will leave, but on a tangent - this was very satisfying: https://twitter.com/DailyCaller/status/1329563673917009920 Question, has anyone ever seen journalists this deranged before? Is this the type of professionalism that's always demand of Trump by critics? Whining like children because you didn't have your way and get to ask a question?

Seeing the deranged media acting like democracy is dying because Trump is contesting election results as if the media did not produce dozens of "smoking guns" promising the American people that the walls were closing in regards to Russian collusion. They spent 3 years convincing people the 2016 election was illegitimate and that we might have a Russian spy as our President. NONE of this seems to be a threat to democracy, yet refusing to concede before state officials certify their votes means democracy in the US is being overturned. Suuuureee...whatever you say, MSM.

I really laugh at anyone that is deluded enough to not think the media isn't a propaganda arm for the democratic party. One thing I will miss from the Trump administration was Trump's adamancy to shit on the media at every turn.

I do understand the right to be upset about the fact that, at the time, the Trump admin wasn't working with the transition. Though the way that the media was attempting to get Pence to answer isn't going to work, and they KNOW that. All this does is give them a clip of angry journalists yelling about things that they can put on their news channel to get people more fired up about it.

The real reason that the Emily Murphy from the GSA sent the letter to Biden is that she was going to be subpoenaed to speak in front of a House Committee regarding the matter and she knew that she wasn't going to be able to get around those questions. That's the real way to put pressure on the executive branch. Media works too, but NOT like this. All of this is just more drama in the never ending show of politics.
271  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Election Is Over What Next? on: November 26, 2020, 07:01:28 AM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/22/us/politics/biden-antony-blinken-secretary-of-state.html

Biden picks his SoS. Haven't heard of this guy at all. Looks about typical and probably has the resume for SoS. Better than Hillary Clinton...

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/biden-harris-meet-mayors-covid-cases-soar-n1248596

This one's hilarious though.  John Kerry as climate czar. It's not like he'll do anything substantial, but I imagine it's just so Biden can virtue signal about how much he cares about climate change. Perhaps the progressives are dumb enough to fall for it, but we'll see.


Anthony Blinken is known to have the credentials for SOS, pretty sure he was the expected person to get it as well. Guy worked in the state dept under Clinton, one of Biden's top aides on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee about 15 yrs ago, deputy national security advisor from 2013 to 2015 and deputy sec of state from 2015 -2017 (when Obama's term ended and Trump took over)

So yeah, totally a normal Washington bureacrat that was expected to be the 'boring' return to normalcy that people elected Biden for. Here's the writeup from Axios regarding him - https://www.axios.com/biden-to-name-antony-blinken-secretary-of-state-7b27ca12-e35d-4c56-a007-134191082228.html

In regards to the point on Kerry, yeah that's all virtue signaling to the Progressives that they're going to be trying to do stuff in regards to the climate. I assume there will be some pretty big EO's right when Biden is in office as well, though those can be rolled back just like Trump rolled back Obamas EO's. Further, it's going to be a bit more interesting in regards to legal challenges on those EO's now as Trump nominated, and confirmed, a TON of new federal appeals judges.
272  Other / Politics & Society / Re: How will Trump leave the White House? on: November 26, 2020, 06:57:01 AM
it is actually irresponsible for any sane president to leave the whitehouse to the irrespeonsible and corrupt democrats and their puppet biden.

announcing a military dictatorship is the smaller ill than continueing democracy with america's crazy left
If Republicans keep the Senate, which looks likely, the Democrats will be forced to compromise and moderate how they govern.

A military coup would probably not last long because so many institutions are already against Trump.
I wonder if any of our allies would help if our democracy was being seized by an authoritarian.
Probably not. Our military is sufficiently strong enough so that our military would win in a conflict.

Most of the time that countries are seized by dictators, they will first be legitimately elected, and subsequently, make radical changes to the court system, such as packing the equivalent of the Supreme Court (cough cough). Once the courts are on the dictator's side, any other changes made are rubber-stamped by the courts and the Dictator can do as they choose.
If you didn't use GOP talking point and language, I'd be sure you were talking about Trump.
- Legitimately elected
- Brags about how many judges he's had appointed and vocalized how he thought other judges weren't legitimate.
- All but explicitly said he wanted to get the  last SCOTUS seat filled because he might need the vote to win the next election.



LOL.

Maybe that's how Trump thought this was going to play out. Though I think that was just a way to fire up the base into getting support for nominating and confirming these judges, ACB included, in record time. Without that support, McConnell would've been left looking like an idiot doing something that has never been done before.

I highly doubt any sane member of Trumps legal team would think that nominating ACB to a spot on the court could make even a lick of a difference when it comes to deciding the outcome of the election. There wasn't any real claims before the election, and now we know that the claims that have come after it are all a bunch of bullshit as well.
273  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon on: November 26, 2020, 06:53:11 AM

That IG report determined that the investigation was not started because of the Steele Dossier.  It was Papadapolous bragging to an Australian intelligence agent that the Trump campaign knew that Russia had dirt on Clinton and would be using it (Trump campaign should have went to the FBI themselves at that point).  In fact, when they became aware of the Steele dossier, the investigation was already under way, and Comey went personally to Trump Tower to tell Trump about it's existence.

Also, Carter Page was already under FBI investigation (like Paul Manafort) before the Trump campaign even existed.


FISA warrants were used to surveille Carter Page, and the basis of these FISA warrants was the Steele Dossier which were renewed multiple times. It doesn't matter if Page was under previous investigation. Doesn't mean you can surveille him and use oppo research that's Russian propaganda as the basis for the warrant.


Mueller uncovered exactly who did it and how - from the fake identities used to buy servers to the bitcoin transactions used to pay for them to the relationship between wikileaks and Russia.  The details Mueller was able to figure out are impressive, all while being obstructed at every turn by the President of the United States.  And that's only based on what's public.

The President of a Country obstructing an investigation into a foreign adversary interfering in the election that he had just won.  Think about that for a second.

I've got a bridge to sell you if you actually believe the laundry list of names was the extent of "Russian interference" or even the basis for Russian interference. Mueller compiled those names knowing he'd never get a conviction and knowing there would never be any sort of trial so he could point towards his list as if it justified his work and 30M of tax payer money. Russian interference in U.S. elections has been going on for decades according to ex-intel official James Clapper -- why would the U.S. wait to prosecute any entities involved and wait until the 2016 election? Especially if its been going on for decades?

Lot of talk about Russians interfering in the 2018 mid term elections. Why did democrats not call for a special prosecutor to investigate that? Well, other than the fact they won in 2018, but that's besides the point.

Russia presumably interfered in the 2020 election. Where are the names of those involved? Don't democrats care so much about Russian interference? Do you think Biden will call for his DoJ to investigate?

I'm glad obstruction is what you got from the Mueller report because what I got from the report is not a single person was indicted for Russian collusion/conspiracy/coordination. 3 years chasing a Russian collusion narrative only to turn up nothing and somehow you are surprised Trump wanted Mueller fired or that he resisted his investigation? Also, Trump had the authority to fire Mueller and did not do so. Quite the obstructionist.

I mean, if I had a couple of FBI goons investigating me texting each other about some insurance policy if I had won a Presidential election, I would be suspect too - https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-fbi-agents-account-insurance-policy-text-referred-to-russia-probe-1513624580

But I guess you still believe there was no political animus involved in the investigation so I'm not sure what else would convince you.

I agree with parts of this.

One of my big issues with the whole Russia thing is that I think a lot of people misunderstand it. Some people actually think that Russia was able to hack into voter booths and change your votes or something along those lines, that's what 'Russian Interference' sounds like, as it's a big word with a lot behind it in peoples heads.

The thing is that it isn't that deep: Literally Russian interference is just the Russian government creating divide in the US by spending money on ads supporting particular candidates, running fake accounts online, and so on and so forth. Isn't that something that literally anyone could do? I understand the inherent difference because the people doing it this time around are the Kremlin, but still.

But I do also agree with the points about 2018 and 2020 -- What was so different then that Russia was unable to change the outcome of the election? If Republicans would have won would things have ended up being different in regards to calls for another investigation or would talks of that died down again?
274  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump (GSA) clears the way for Biden Transition to begin on: November 26, 2020, 06:43:59 AM
Interesting on the PredictIt stuff, I'm going to have to take a look relatively shortly to see if there's anything I can make some money on now. LOL. Seem to have missed the boat on that one. Making 9% (not sure if you're including CC rewards) is pretty nice, and there doesn't seem to be too many short term opportunities for that left. But that's life.

They finally paid out the popular vote bet, which means a few million bucks went from that into other bets bringing the prices on the easy ones up to $0.94-0.95, which makes it unprofitable for new deposits due to the withdrawal fees but acceptable to those who have funds already on the site.

In regards to NewsMax, pretty sure they're just going to try to be a OAN type news source where the only thing they really try to do is spew conspiracy theories about random shit that conservatives are talking about that day. Kinda assuming that the whole business plan is to try to siphon off some of the die hard conservatives from Fox and use that as a springboard to grow. In the short term that works with NewsMax, and I also assume OAN, though data on their viewers isn't publicly available. Long term? Who the hell knows, it'll still be able to bring those die hard Trumpers if Trump continues to tweet about them as his preferred source.

I guess I'm expecting too much, but how long can you scream about the dumbest possible conspiracies without ever showing any proof. When Trump has to leave the White House and there is no promised SCOTUS intervention, what are Newsmax or OAN people going to say? SCOTUS controlled by Democracts? Wasn't nominating 3 new judges Trump's greatest achievement?

Seems like a completely unsustainable path of lies. Maybe the viewers don't really care as long as they hear what they want to hear.

Still kinda confused on how the betting fees and stuff work, am going to have to dive into that again one of these days. I know you have a post on it, I'm just a bit slow when it comes to remembering all the time.

But in regards to Newsmax or OAN -- I have no idea how they've even lasted this long. It's batshit crazy to me how you could listen to a channel right now that is telling you that Trump won the election, when he just literally didn't. They're talking about how SCOTUS is going to hand a win to Trump, when for years Conservatives have complained about judges getting too involved in stopping President Trumps EO's.

Doesn't really seem sustainable to me, though I've been wrong many times before.

Biden announced his 100 day priorities: https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/11/24/biden-on-his-first-100-days-immigration-bill-environment-and-coronavirus-relief/?sh=39275d14351b

One of the first things - Citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants. Completely absurd, and I don't recall immigration being a topic during any of the debates either. Somehow Biden's plan of providing a pathway to citizenship for 11 million people slid under the radar.

Ah, well that's a way to make illegal immigration a major issue for 2024 once Coronavirus dies down in the next year or so.
275  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon on: November 25, 2020, 12:45:24 AM
Only evidence that they Mueller went after Trump directly with though was in regards to interference though, right? All of this sounds so long ago but it really wasn't, which is an insane thing for all of us to think about. Yes some Trump people were indicted, but there was no ability of the Mueller investigation to prove direct links to Trump in terms of his knowledge or direct approval of what was going on, right? Let me know if I'm misremembering or something here, not trying to change the story or anything, just curious.

That's the thing, it wasn't a 'trump investigation' that's just what Trump made it seem like.  It was an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, which included ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.  There was interference, and there were ties between the campaign and Russia.  It was not a witch hunt.

In the end, he did lay out several clear instances of obstruction that Trump would've likely been already charged with if he were not the sitting president - and left the door open for a few other charges.

"it is important to preserve evidence while memories are fresh and documents available"
-Mueller

Although he'll probably have a few 'get out of federal prison free' cards, I suspect Muellers findings will haunt Trump long after he leaves office.



I probably should've been more clear about what I was saying here.

When talking about the Mueller investigation I was talking about the direct links to Trump. I do understand what the full implications of the investigation and how it highlighted potential issues, and issues, that we had in our voting process and how easily manipulated people could be into supporting a particular candidate through fake news spreading online from Russia.

I am personally of the belief that a former President will never be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Maybe he'll have some legal issues, yes, but I don't think that he is going to be arrested or anything like that. I've heard some say this, and it irks me a bit cause he is still a former President.
276  Other / Politics & Society / Re: [BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon on: November 24, 2020, 08:16:22 PM
I would refer you to the talk about "Russia" if you are concerned about disinformation and the integrity of the election.

The Russia investigation, which did not take place during the transition period, had strong evidence (it wasn't a witch hunt), interference was proven (yes actually proven), people were indicted (no not just for process crimes)  and resulted in tons of valuable information that is being used to protect future elections (including this one).

If his claims had merit it would be different, but Trump has presented no evidence that he won and he's encouraging the spread of misinformation that only serves to undermine the integrity of the election and country.

We can let the courts decide if a particular lawsuit is "frivolous" or not. Everyone has the right to a vigorous legal team fighting for their rights in court. Putting pressure on law firms because of who they represent is indefensible.

Law firms can also decide if a case is worth it or not. Here's what a federal judge said about a case yesterday in PA:

“This Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence, In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more.”

It wouldn't make sense for any reputable law firm to present a case like this in federal court, there would be immediate damage to their reputation and possibly legitimacy.  





Only evidence that they Mueller went after Trump directly with though was in regards to interference though, right? All of this sounds so long ago but it really wasn't, which is an insane thing for all of us to think about. Yes some Trump people were indicted, but there was no ability of the Mueller investigation to prove direct links to Trump in terms of his knowledge or direct approval of what was going on, right? Let me know if I'm misremembering or something here, not trying to change the story or anything, just curious.

In regards to the Law Firms and such, I know that some are going to be under pressure due to representing Trump, though I don't think any clients that they care about are the ones that are angry. Everyone kinda knows that there is a good amount of money even in representing something that is total bullshit and isn't going to go anywhere. Maybe that's just my warped world view on things, but still.
277  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump (GSA) clears the way for Biden Transition to begin on: November 24, 2020, 08:11:58 PM
Curious on what things you bet on to make some free money. I know we'd been talking about it on some other threads, though it would be nice to see what ones were 'free money' for you.

Which party will win GA in 2020?  <- bought, sold, bought again... this one was nice, went up and down a few times.
Which party will win AZ in 2020? etc
Basically all available "Which party will win <any state> in 2020" markets, there were maybe 5 or 6
Also "<state> Dem primary winner elected president?" <- proxy markets for Biden win because I was too late to bet on the main presidential election market.
Then some really stupid ones, like betting "No" on "Pennsylvania margin of victory - GOP by 3% or more".
~20 markets total that average to about ~9% gain after all fees. Not bad for a couple of weeks, assuming these will settle within the next few days. For some reason PredictIt is keeping open even the ones that have been certified by the states.

I consider these "free money" because mathematically and historically any recounts etc would not have changed the results and the legal challenges were extremely weak. Those should have been 95:5 markets at most and they were trading as low as 80:20 at times, and that was after the votes had been counted... nuts.

I missed out on the GSA transition start date market unfortunately. But maybe that's for the better. I would have bet wrong. Didn't expect it to happen today.

Now the remaining profitable low risk ones are mostly "Who will be <insert cabinet position> on March 1" - betting "No" on Trump's people. Like against Pompeo being Secretary of State... the only problem is that I may need to wait until March 1 or at least until mid-January for trumpists to give up and let me take my profit so that's kinda meh.

Anyway, it's all because of the $850 limit per market, otherwise I would have put everything on popular vote or something - yes, there still are people betting on Trump winning the popular vote LOL.

I think one of the most important areas to check to see what the base is thinking is to go to Fox News, NewsMax, and then OANN. Pretty good what to see what the base is currently thinking about things. Right now I think they're still thinking there is mass voter fraud, that's the thoughts from some of my BIG TRUMPER family members.

I tried watching Newsmax. I don't really get what's their end game. Will they keep this up for the next four years? Seems unsustainable. At some point they will have to admit that the whole massive fraud conspiracy was BS. No? Kraken didn't show up.

Interesting on the PredictIt stuff, I'm going to have to take a look relatively shortly to see if there's anything I can make some money on now. LOL. Seem to have missed the boat on that one. Making 9% (not sure if you're including CC rewards) is pretty nice, and there doesn't seem to be too many short term opportunities for that left. But that's life.

In regards to NewsMax, pretty sure they're just going to try to be a OAN type news source where the only thing they really try to do is spew conspiracy theories about random shit that conservatives are talking about that day. Kinda assuming that the whole business plan is to try to siphon off some of the die hard conservatives from Fox and use that as a springboard to grow. In the short term that works with NewsMax, and I also assume OAN, though data on their viewers isn't publicly available. Long term? Who the hell knows, it'll still be able to bring those die hard Trumpers if Trump continues to tweet about them as his preferred source.
278  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump (GSA) clears the way for Biden Transition to begin on: November 24, 2020, 03:33:18 AM
About time. Even though this pretty much ended my gambling binge on PredictIt... not a lot of free money remaining there LOL

I wonder what's the general mood among the "base" - do they really still believe Trump can win this? It's hard to tell from the news.

Curious on what things you bet on to make some free money. I know we'd been talking about it on some other threads, though it would be nice to see what ones were 'free money' for you.

I think one of the most important areas to check to see what the base is thinking is to go to Fox News, NewsMax, and then OANN. Pretty good what to see what the base is currently thinking about things. Right now I think they're still thinking there is mass voter fraud, that's the thoughts from some of my BIG TRUMPER family members.
279  Other / Politics & Society / Re: New world powers to be emerged soon, situations may lead us to WW3... on: November 24, 2020, 02:41:15 AM
Some observers said we are currently in WW3, but not in the form of an all-out war because that would lead to doomsday. It's the war of intelligence, trade, IT, and more about controlling without destructions. Yeah, small wars involving proxy countries could happen, but not directly US army vs CCP vs Russia. Agree, the CCP is gaining more and more influence, and we will see reactions from other countries that were bullied by the CCP.

Another thing is Biden may start new wars again.


Doubt that there is going to be any support for any new wars from the public, even if it was from Joe Biden and the 'normal' insiders in Washington.

But in terms of WW3, the USA would still win IMO. Still not going to be something that actually happens in the near feature, though I do think that there is going to totally be proxy wars, but nothing to the caliber of American boots on the ground.
280  Other / Politics & Society / Trump (GSA) clears the way for Biden Transition to begin on: November 24, 2020, 02:31:51 AM
Emily Murphy, the head of the GSA for the Trump administration, has given the okay to Biden to begin the transition process into the next administration. This clears the way for money and other resources to be given to the Biden campaign to begin filling posts and getting access to intelligence briefings / COVID distributions plans.

Pretty important for Biden to have the info on intelligence and COVID stuff so he isn't learning stuff on the first day.

Donald Trump continues to talk about the fact that he will fight this until the end as he has said that "people love a fighter"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-pressure-gsa-to-name-biden-winner-start-transition-11606172086?mod=hp_lead_pos1
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