[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[suchmoon]

Assuming 'some disbarments' means some lawyers involved in Trumps election lawsuits getting disbarred in the near future and 'getting past SC' means the Trump campaign receiving a favorable SCOTUS ruling, while both are unlikely, I think a favorable SCOTUS ruling is clearly less likely, mostly because of Rudy.  

Right, that's what I meant.

Now somewhat surprisingly there is a lawyer who's too nutty even for Trump:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/22/trump-campaign-sidney-powell-legal-439357

"Sidney Powell is practicing law on her own," Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani and campaign lawyer Jenna Ellis said in the statement. "She is not a member of the Trump Legal Team. She is also not a lawyer for the President in his personal capacity."

Poor kraken, no longer getting released I guess.

[Gyfts]

^^

I truly hoped anyone that believed in this bat shit insane woman now feels like they got duped. I'd love to see Trump inaugurated for a 2nd term, but it is also clear that anyone claiming to "release the kraken" is looking for their 10 seconds of fame instead of having anything to show for.

Hope Powell is laughed out of business for this sort of grift.

[squatz1]

Yeah, especially if the judges that are throwing out Trumps cases are conservative in the way they rule on cases and were sometimes even appointed by Trump. Pretty good indication if every single legal expert that is in the news, both conservative and liberal, are saying that the cases that are out there aren't likely to change the outcome of anything.

There's literally nothing happening right now that is going on right now that has the ability to make Trump the President.

And it's not like these are tough or questionable decisions... those cases are being tossed for being frivolous. Some disbarments are more likely than this getting past SC, and some of those cases have actually been dropped by lawyers/plaintiffs themselves probably because they realize how much shit they'd be in if they continue to push Trump's lies (keep in mind that Trump is not the plaintiff in any of the cases - it's usually his campaign or some allegedly aggrieved voters).

And BTW the reason we have nutjobs like Rudy Giuliani and Lin Wood now on these cases is that reputable law firms don't want to touch this nonsense.

Not expecting for anyone to get disbarred, though I do think it's a fair comparison when it comes to the chances of this getting to the SC and people being disbarred.

Then again, people are saying that one of the thing that points to the fact that this is more about theater is that Giuliani is the one that is leading the charge on this case. If it wasn't Giuliani and it was a relatively normal law firm that is hard hitting in getting wins then we'd expect for this to point towards this being more serious litigation instead of just a show to raise money.

[TwitchySeal]

I think that's as close to a concession as we're going to get.  Honestly I'm impressed.  When I heard she signed it I thought for sure the next story would be about Trump firing her and trying to undo her approval.

[PrimeNumber7]

And BTW the reason we have nutjobs like Rudy Giuliani and Lin Wood now on these cases is that reputable law firms don't want to touch this nonsense.

Actually law firms have decided to not represent the Trump campaign because of public pressure against these law firms and their other clients.

The pressure campaign to get law firms to drop the Trump Campaign as a client should be condemned in the strongest way possible. Everyone has a right to legal representation.

Representing a client is not an endorsement of their alleged actions or viewpoints. Representing a client is a means to ensure their rights are not violated and that the law is properly enforced.

You'd be right if we were talking about a criminal case.  Even the worst murderers deserve a vigorous defense, but these are frivolous lawsuits that the Trump campaign is using as a vehicle to raise money, spread disinformation and undermine the integrity of the election. 

I would refer you to the talk about "Russia" if you are concerned about disinformation and the integrity of the election.

We can let the courts decide if a particular lawsuit is "frivolous" or not. Everyone has the right to a vigorous legal team fighting for their rights in court. Putting pressure on law firms because of who they represent is indefensible.

[nutildah]

Does anybody here actually believe its not over already?

[TwitchySeal]

I would refer you to the talk about "Russia" if you are concerned about disinformation and the integrity of the election.

The Russia investigation, which did not take place during the transition period, had strong evidence (it wasn't a witch hunt), interference was proven (yes actually proven), people were indicted (no not just for process crimes)  and resulted in tons of valuable information that is being used to protect future elections (including this one).

If his claims had merit it would be different, but Trump has presented no evidence that he won and he's encouraging the spread of misinformation that only serves to undermine the integrity of the election and country.

We can let the courts decide if a particular lawsuit is "frivolous" or not. Everyone has the right to a vigorous legal team fighting for their rights in court. Putting pressure on law firms because of who they represent is indefensible.

Law firms can also decide if a case is worth it or not. Here's what a federal judge said about a case yesterday in PA:

“This Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence, In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more.”

It wouldn't make sense for any reputable law firm to present a case like this in federal court, there would be immediate damage to their reputation and possibly legitimacy.  

[squatz1]

I would refer you to the talk about "Russia" if you are concerned about disinformation and the integrity of the election.

The Russia investigation, which did not take place during the transition period, had strong evidence (it wasn't a witch hunt), interference was proven (yes actually proven), people were indicted (no not just for process crimes)  and resulted in tons of valuable information that is being used to protect future elections (including this one).

If his claims had merit it would be different, but Trump has presented no evidence that he won and he's encouraging the spread of misinformation that only serves to undermine the integrity of the election and country.

We can let the courts decide if a particular lawsuit is "frivolous" or not. Everyone has the right to a vigorous legal team fighting for their rights in court. Putting pressure on law firms because of who they represent is indefensible.

Law firms can also decide if a case is worth it or not. Here's what a federal judge said about a case yesterday in PA:

“This Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence, In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more.”

It wouldn't make sense for any reputable law firm to present a case like this in federal court, there would be immediate damage to their reputation and possibly legitimacy.  

Only evidence that they Mueller went after Trump directly with though was in regards to interference though, right? All of this sounds so long ago but it really wasn't, which is an insane thing for all of us to think about. Yes some Trump people were indicted, but there was no ability of the Mueller investigation to prove direct links to Trump in terms of his knowledge or direct approval of what was going on, right? Let me know if I'm misremembering or something here, not trying to change the story or anything, just curious.

In regards to the Law Firms and such, I know that some are going to be under pressure due to representing Trump, though I don't think any clients that they care about are the ones that are angry. Everyone kinda knows that there is a good amount of money even in representing something that is total bullshit and isn't going to go anywhere. Maybe that's just my warped world view on things, but still.

[suchmoon]

In regards to the Law Firms and such, I know that some are going to be under pressure due to representing Trump, though I don't think any clients that they care about are the ones that are angry. Everyone kinda knows that there is a good amount of money even in representing something that is total bullshit and isn't going to go anywhere. Maybe that's just my warped world view on things, but still.

Right. If there was an SC-worthy case, even a potentially losing one, you'd get high profile law firms lining up. Since when do lawyers get scared away by a little bit of bad publicity.

But these election cases were complete turdballs, plus the Trump campaign is broke and he has a long history of unpaid bills.

[TwitchySeal]

Only evidence that they Mueller went after Trump directly with though was in regards to interference though, right? All of this sounds so long ago but it really wasn't, which is an insane thing for all of us to think about. Yes some Trump people were indicted, but there was no ability of the Mueller investigation to prove direct links to Trump in terms of his knowledge or direct approval of what was going on, right? Let me know if I'm misremembering or something here, not trying to change the story or anything, just curious.

That's the thing, it wasn't a 'trump investigation' that's just what Trump made it seem like.  It was an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, which included ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.  There was interference, and there were ties between the campaign and Russia.  It was not a witch hunt.

In the end, he did lay out several clear instances of obstruction that Trump would've likely been already charged with if he were not the sitting president - and left the door open for a few other charges.

"it is important to preserve evidence while memories are fresh and documents available"
-Mueller

Although he'll probably have a few 'get out of federal prison free' cards, I suspect Muellers findings will haunt Trump long after he leaves office.

[Gyfts]

That's the thing, it wasn't a 'trump investigation' that's just what Trump made it seem like.  It was an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, which included ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.  There was interference, and there were ties between the campaign and Russia.  It was not a witch hunt.

In the end, he did lay out several clear instances of obstruction that Trump would've likely been already charged with if he were not the sitting president - and left the door open for a few other charges.

"it is important to preserve evidence while memories are fresh and documents available"
-Mueller

Although he'll probably have a few 'get out of federal prison free' cards, I suspect Muellers findings will haunt Trump long after he leaves office.

Mueller's job was to uncover "Russian interference" AND investigate Russian collusion to which you had idiots like Adam Schiff, an elected official, not some left wing retard on Twitter, going on CNN every night promising everyone that the walls were closing in and that the President of the United States would be thrown in prison for being a Russian spy.

But let's take a step back, the entire Russia bullshit was started on the Steele Dossier which essentially was Russian disinformation that had no basis of being true. But apparently, that's all it takes to get a FISA warrant sign off at the Obama DoJ.

Read here where the U.S. IG released a report detailing pages of "errors" on behalf of the FBI which he designates as "incompetence" and not political animus - https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/horowitz-report-steele-dossier-collusion-news-media-924944/

I guess it is a high bar to prove legitimate political animus as the basis for the investigation but I also refuse to believe any government officials that choose to engage in FISA abuse are acting in good faith. Just my opinion, perhaps you might disagree with me and agree with Horowitz because Horowitz also seems to claim there was no bias on behalf of the FBI. Again, I find this hard to believe.

We knew of Russian interference since 2016. It did not take a special prosecutor to uncover it. This was an investigation on Trump. Had there been no smoke about Russian collusion, Mueller wouldn't have been appointed. He was appointed after firing Comey, and Sally Yates has even said Comey went "rogue" in regards to how Comey handled the Michael Flynn situation - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sally-yates-comey-went-rogue-michael-flynn-senate-judiciary-committee/..So it's not like Trump was ever wrong for firing Comey in hindsight.

[squatz1]

Only evidence that they Mueller went after Trump directly with though was in regards to interference though, right? All of this sounds so long ago but it really wasn't, which is an insane thing for all of us to think about. Yes some Trump people were indicted, but there was no ability of the Mueller investigation to prove direct links to Trump in terms of his knowledge or direct approval of what was going on, right? Let me know if I'm misremembering or something here, not trying to change the story or anything, just curious.

That's the thing, it wasn't a 'trump investigation' that's just what Trump made it seem like.  It was an investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, which included ties between the Trump campaign and Russia.  There was interference, and there were ties between the campaign and Russia.  It was not a witch hunt.

In the end, he did lay out several clear instances of obstruction that Trump would've likely been already charged with if he were not the sitting president - and left the door open for a few other charges.

"it is important to preserve evidence while memories are fresh and documents available"
-Mueller

Although he'll probably have a few 'get out of federal prison free' cards, I suspect Muellers findings will haunt Trump long after he leaves office.

I probably should've been more clear about what I was saying here.

When talking about the Mueller investigation I was talking about the direct links to Trump. I do understand what the full implications of the investigation and how it highlighted potential issues, and issues, that we had in our voting process and how easily manipulated people could be into supporting a particular candidate through fake news spreading online from Russia.

I am personally of the belief that a former President will never be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. Maybe he'll have some legal issues, yes, but I don't think that he is going to be arrested or anything like that. I've heard some say this, and it irks me a bit cause he is still a former President.

[TwitchySeal]

But let's take a step back, the entire Russia bullshit was started on the Steele Dossier which essentially was Russian disinformation that had no basis of being true. But apparently, that's all it takes to get a FISA warrant sign off at the Obama DoJ.

That IG report determined that the investigation was not started because of the Steele Dossier.  It was Papadapolous bragging to an Australian intelligence agent that the Trump campaign knew that Russia had dirt on Clinton and would be using it (Trump campaign should have went to the FBI themselves at that point).  In fact, when they became aware of the Steele dossier, the investigation was already under way, and Comey went personally to Trump Tower to tell Trump about it's existence.

Also, Carter Page was already under FBI investigation (like Paul Manafort) before the Trump campaign even existed.

We knew of Russian interference since 2016. It did not take a special prosecutor to uncover it.

Mueller uncovered exactly who did it and how - from the fake identities used to buy servers to the bitcoin transactions used to pay for them to the relationship between wikileaks and Russia.  The details Mueller was able to figure out are impressive, all while being obstructed at every turn by the President of the United States.  And that's only based on what's public.

The President of a Country obstructing an investigation into a foreign adversary interfering in the election that he had just won.  Think about that for a second.

[Gyfts]

That IG report determined that the investigation was not started because of the Steele Dossier.  It was Papadapolous bragging to an Australian intelligence agent that the Trump campaign knew that Russia had dirt on Clinton and would be using it (Trump campaign should have went to the FBI themselves at that point).  In fact, when they became aware of the Steele dossier, the investigation was already under way, and Comey went personally to Trump Tower to tell Trump about it's existence.

Also, Carter Page was already under FBI investigation (like Paul Manafort) before the Trump campaign even existed.

FISA warrants were used to surveille Carter Page, and the basis of these FISA warrants was the Steele Dossier which were renewed multiple times. It doesn't matter if Page was under previous investigation. Doesn't mean you can surveille him and use oppo research that's Russian propaganda as the basis for the warrant.

Mueller uncovered exactly who did it and how - from the fake identities used to buy servers to the bitcoin transactions used to pay for them to the relationship between wikileaks and Russia.  The details Mueller was able to figure out are impressive, all while being obstructed at every turn by the President of the United States.  And that's only based on what's public.

The President of a Country obstructing an investigation into a foreign adversary interfering in the election that he had just won.  Think about that for a second.

I've got a bridge to sell you if you actually believe the laundry list of names was the extent of "Russian interference" or even the basis for Russian interference. Mueller compiled those names knowing he'd never get a conviction and knowing there would never be any sort of trial so he could point towards his list as if it justified his work and 30M of tax payer money. Russian interference in U.S. elections has been going on for decades according to ex-intel official James Clapper -- why would the U.S. wait to prosecute any entities involved and wait until the 2016 election? Especially if its been going on for decades?

Lot of talk about Russians interfering in the 2018 mid term elections. Why did democrats not call for a special prosecutor to investigate that? Well, other than the fact they won in 2018, but that's besides the point.

Russia presumably interfered in the 2020 election. Where are the names of those involved? Don't democrats care so much about Russian interference? Do you think Biden will call for his DoJ to investigate?

I'm glad obstruction is what you got from the Mueller report because what I got from the report is not a single person was indicted for Russian collusion/conspiracy/coordination. 3 years chasing a Russian collusion narrative only to turn up nothing and somehow you are surprised Trump wanted Mueller fired or that he resisted his investigation? Also, Trump had the authority to fire Mueller and did not do so. Quite the obstructionist.

I mean, if I had a couple of FBI goons investigating me texting each other about some insurance policy if I had won a Presidential election, I would be suspect too - https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-fbi-agents-account-insurance-policy-text-referred-to-russia-probe-1513624580

But I guess you still believe there was no political animus involved in the investigation so I'm not sure what else would convince you.

[squatz1]

That IG report determined that the investigation was not started because of the Steele Dossier.  It was Papadapolous bragging to an Australian intelligence agent that the Trump campaign knew that Russia had dirt on Clinton and would be using it (Trump campaign should have went to the FBI themselves at that point).  In fact, when they became aware of the Steele dossier, the investigation was already under way, and Comey went personally to Trump Tower to tell Trump about it's existence.

Also, Carter Page was already under FBI investigation (like Paul Manafort) before the Trump campaign even existed.

FISA warrants were used to surveille Carter Page, and the basis of these FISA warrants was the Steele Dossier which were renewed multiple times. It doesn't matter if Page was under previous investigation. Doesn't mean you can surveille him and use oppo research that's Russian propaganda as the basis for the warrant.

Mueller uncovered exactly who did it and how - from the fake identities used to buy servers to the bitcoin transactions used to pay for them to the relationship between wikileaks and Russia.  The details Mueller was able to figure out are impressive, all while being obstructed at every turn by the President of the United States.  And that's only based on what's public.

The President of a Country obstructing an investigation into a foreign adversary interfering in the election that he had just won.  Think about that for a second.

I've got a bridge to sell you if you actually believe the laundry list of names was the extent of "Russian interference" or even the basis for Russian interference. Mueller compiled those names knowing he'd never get a conviction and knowing there would never be any sort of trial so he could point towards his list as if it justified his work and 30M of tax payer money. Russian interference in U.S. elections has been going on for decades according to ex-intel official James Clapper -- why would the U.S. wait to prosecute any entities involved and wait until the 2016 election? Especially if its been going on for decades?

Lot of talk about Russians interfering in the 2018 mid term elections. Why did democrats not call for a special prosecutor to investigate that? Well, other than the fact they won in 2018, but that's besides the point.

Russia presumably interfered in the 2020 election. Where are the names of those involved? Don't democrats care so much about Russian interference? Do you think Biden will call for his DoJ to investigate?

I'm glad obstruction is what you got from the Mueller report because what I got from the report is not a single person was indicted for Russian collusion/conspiracy/coordination. 3 years chasing a Russian collusion narrative only to turn up nothing and somehow you are surprised Trump wanted Mueller fired or that he resisted his investigation? Also, Trump had the authority to fire Mueller and did not do so. Quite the obstructionist.

I mean, if I had a couple of FBI goons investigating me texting each other about some insurance policy if I had won a Presidential election, I would be suspect too - https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-fbi-agents-account-insurance-policy-text-referred-to-russia-probe-1513624580

But I guess you still believe there was no political animus involved in the investigation so I'm not sure what else would convince you.

I agree with parts of this.

One of my big issues with the whole Russia thing is that I think a lot of people misunderstand it. Some people actually think that Russia was able to hack into voter booths and change your votes or something along those lines, that's what 'Russian Interference' sounds like, as it's a big word with a lot behind it in peoples heads.

The thing is that it isn't that deep: Literally Russian interference is just the Russian government creating divide in the US by spending money on ads supporting particular candidates, running fake accounts online, and so on and so forth. Isn't that something that literally anyone could do? I understand the inherent difference because the people doing it this time around are the Kremlin, but still.

But I do also agree with the points about 2018 and 2020 -- What was so different then that Russia was unable to change the outcome of the election? If Republicans would have won would things have ended up being different in regards to calls for another investigation or would talks of that died down again?

[Gyfts]

Small win for Trump - PA will delay certifying their election results, presumably due to voter anomalies - https://6abc.com/politics/judge-halts-further-vote-certification;-gov-wolf-appeals/8254952/

Doesn't matter too much as GA and AZ are a done deal. Biden doesn't need PA to win even if for some bizarre reason the entire election results were thrown out in that state.

[nutildah]

Now the real bet contract:

Code:

suchmoon's address: 18pTKHyCFyr5Gk3LHN4wKke1hUaT3wUnjb
eddie13's address: 1vvSrTFiQY7akwbsv3iYPPe9mR3DsEbff

suchmoon agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to eddie13 if Donald J Trump wins the 2020 US presidential election, and eddie13 agrees to pay 0.1 BTC to suchmoon if Donald J Trump does not win the 2020 US presidential election.

Decision logic:

Election result is considered decided by the Electoral College meeting. If the Electoral College elects Donald J Trump the president of the US following the 2020 US presidential election eddie13 wins the bet, in any other case suchmoon wins the bet except for the draw conditions listed below.

Conditions for a draw (neither side pays the other side):

    If there is no presidential election in 2020.
    If Donald J Trump is not on the ballot in at least 26 states.
    If the Electoral College doesn't meet by midnight January 31, 2021.

Additional terms:

    EC decision is final regardless of popular vote, pledged electors, unfaithful electors etc.
    No presidential election in 2020 (martial law, martians invading, etc) means a draw.
    Donald J Trump not running for any reason (primaried out, dead, impeached, etc) means a draw even if he wins via write-in.
    Any other candidate getting elected (democrat, republican, third party, etc) means suchmoon wins.
    If Donald J Trump is elected but doesn't get sworn in (dies, goes to prison, moves to Slovenia, etc) eddie13 wins.

Signed 2019-12-09

This thread will be officially 1 year old in a day or two. Even though the election is over (its over and has been for weeks) and suchmoon won, this is what we have to endure for 6 more weeks:

Dec. 8, 2020: Deadline for Resolving Election Disputes. All state recounts and court contests over presidential election results must be completed by this date...

Dec. 14, 2020: Meeting of the Electors. The electors meet in each state and cast their ballots for president and vice president. Each elector votes on his or her own ballot and signs it...

Dec. 23, 2020: Deadline for Receipt of Ballots. The electors' ballots from all states must be received by the president of the Senate by this date. There is no penalty for missing this deadline.

Jan. 6, 2021: Counting of the Electoral Ballots. The U.S. Congress meets in joint session to count the electoral votes.

Jan. 20, 2021: Inauguration Day.  The president-elect becomes the president of the United States.

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/the-electoral-college.aspx

Wonder if the outcome of the Electoral College meeting will be known on Dec 14 or if we have to wait until Dec 23.

[suchmoon]

Wonder if the outcome of the Electoral College meeting will be known on Dec 14 or if we have to wait until Dec 23.

Maybe the MAGA crowd will block I-83 to prevent the FedEx truck from delivering the ballots from Harrisburg to DC.

This whole thing is so far beyond stupid that there's bound to be all sorts of shit happening that I couldn't have possibly imagined a year ago.

[Vod]

I see a possible issue:

If there is no presidential election in 2020.

If the election is not decided in 2020, does that mean it took place?

[suchmoon]

If the election is not decided in 2020, does that mean it took place?

The election happened on Nov 3. It would take an act of Congress to move the date and the Congress didn't do that. And all states except Wisconsin have certified the results so it's over by any imaginable measure.