Just reported on the NY Times first, Bernie Sanders is dropping out of the Democratic primary for President. That leaves Joe Biden to be the presumptive nominee and to begin to unify the party around him. Crazy to think that we've seen Biden become the front runner, then Bernie, and now back to Biden ending up as the nominee. Could've made some good money betting on Biden when he was beginning his downfall!

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/bernie-sanders-drops-out/index.html sorry about fake news CNN

Yeah maybe. LOL

But I do think that there is going to be a lot of things that government do to take power during this time that they wouldn't have had before. I know Rahm Emanuel -- Obama first Chief of Staff said "You never let a serious crisis go to waste. And what I mean by that it's an opportunity to do things you think you could not do before." So the federal, state, and local governments aren't going to waste time here in abosbing powers that they didn't have before. Even the Presidency (the Executive branch as a whole) is going to absorb powers from the other branches because we're in a crisis.

This event wasn't created to take more power for government, but they sure as shit are going to use it to grow more powerful and to try to stop the spread of this virus.

I've seen reports that dictatorships across the world are becoming stronger and stronger in a time like this. s

The biggest thing is that we were neglecting having the proper infrastructure setup for an event like this. Everyone in power thought -- well it probably won't happen again (after Ebola) and they disregarded that this was a nagging risk. Public health experts on the otherhand have been talking about how government and private industry should be devoting resources to proper research.

We knew this was a problem after Ebola happened. We got lucky because Ebola wasn't as infectious and we were able to control the few people that we knew had it.

As Bill Gates said, we need to begin fighting pandemics like we fight wars. Prepare for it in advance and be more then ready next time. All the money that the US spent on the military this year -- 800B or so -- couldn't help much in the fight against the coronavirus.

Watch this video - https://www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=en

China is a superpower, maybe not as powerful as the US, but they're still a global superpower with  MASSIVE amount of influence in the world. China won't be friendly to the west, and that is true. But China has FORCED its way into the global stage by leveraging their cheap manufacturing to take over the global stage.

Further, China is investing HEAVILY in other countries that are developing and are forcing their influence on these other countries later on. Here's a list I found online of Chinese investments - https://chinapower.csis.org/china-foreign-direct-investment/

Life will return to normal, it always does, it's just going to be a long few months of recovery period where people MUST follow the social distancing guidelines or life is going to take longer to return to normal.

Maybe this normal will be a bit different. Maybe people will want to stockpile food in their homes for longer, grocery stores will probably develop better online ordering options, government SHOULD prepare for the next pandemic in a better way -- like Bill Gates said -- having resources prepared to research stuff like this, fighting against pandemics like we fight against war.

Our world is always altered by the things that happen, and typically our responses to these events will always make us stronger as we're able to deal with the NEXT time better. But people that thrive on people being scared are going to say things are never going to be the same -- that's just not true, we're all going to be okay at some point.

Digital dollar was a part of the House version of the bill that wasn't passed, the Senate version of the bill which was a compromise b/w Dems and Republicans was the bill that was actually passed and made into law, was a version that didn't include a digital dollar. Absurd claims about this being good for Crypto are very stupid.


When you've lost your job, your retirement account is down like 20-30 percent from the peak, and you don't know when you're going to find a new job -- do you truly think that you're going to want to throw money at a speculative investment like Crypto? No. The answer for most is no. This is a speculative investment that people SHOULDN'T put money into unless they have money that they're willing to invest and lost and have already handled investing in traditional asset classes.

This cycle is just the boom and bust business cycle that we've seen for hundreds of years now. Some years we're doing great, and other years there are financial problems. But you're calling these the weak years of the economy (your claim regarding 2000-2020) -- disregarding the fact that the stock market has been up 106 percent since 2000.  Unemployment (before the coronavirus) was the lowest it's been in awhile, businesses were thriving, pay was rising, etc.

Inflation hasn't been too bad during this period, I'd say the average for the last two decades is around 2-3 percent. Yes, debt had risen VERY largely and that is something countries must start to control. But I don't think we're in a weak phase right now (obviously disregarding corona)

Boom and bust is all this is.

I mean what do you want to happen in a time of economic crisis? Not everyone can be paid every single dollar of what they received before, as there is no money being circulated in the economy to support that. Businesses shouldn't be required to pay their employees when they need to lay them off. That's going to be left to unemployment insurance to handle.

Every country in the world is doing this right now. Not surprising.

Update to this whole thing: Boris Johnson is 'stable' in ICU (CNN)

Seems as if Boris Johnson is stabilizing in ICU, breathing without assistance now and is in good spirits. While this could still take a turn for the worse, as Boris is an old person with conditions that put him at risk for this, I do think this is great news for all. You could hate the guys politics, but I would never wish death upon another because he has different views then me.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/07/uk/boris-johnson-coronavirus-uk-gbr-intl/index.html

I hope everyone is staying safe!

I'm assuming this has been discussed on here by now, but the CDC has changed their directive regarding facemasks and is now recommending that all people wear facemasks when they're out of the house. It's NOT to protect you from getting the coronavirus, because JackG has correctly pointed out that these masks won't help, but it will stop you from spreading the virus to others.

CDC Directive: https://theconversation.com/the-cdc-now-recommends-wearing-a-mask-in-some-cases-a-physician-explains-why-and-when-to-wear-one-135590

So yeah, just wear one. You can make them from home with an old shirt and some rubber bands.

Not surprised. The US needs this sort of stuff to see if it can work for further testing on people, and India isn't exporting this potential lifesaving medicine that people need. It isn't a miracle drug, yet, but we'll see if it is in the coming days and weeks. I know thousands of New Yorkers (1500) are receiving it now who are suffering. If you're most likely going to die anyway, why not try some experimental treatments that may help someone.

Worth a shot, eh?

This is true, I'd be betting on Cuomo to NOT be the nominee right now -- which really could only be done on PredictIT. While I'd have to agree that Cuomo is probably doing a good job -- and an AMAZING job in presenting himself on TV, I can't beleive FOR A SECOND that he'd be able to get the Democrat party behind him. Come on folks.

Edit:

Just looked on the PredictIT site, seems like right now you could bet on Cuomo NOT being the nominee for a return of about 7 percent if he isn't the nominee when the dems official select their nominee during their convention.
You'd be able to make 10 percent on buying shares that say Trump will be the 2020 nominee. Pence comes in a FAR second for this. Guess this is just the risk of death at this age, same thing for Biden with the added portion of Cuomo doing well in press conferences recentley.

Edit 2: PredictIT charges a 5 percent fee for withdrawals. I see where they stop people from just betting no on longshot candidates now.

You're without a doubt right, I did forget to mention that I think providing loans to these companies as very low interest rates is alright, though I don't agree with massive cash infusions.

I don't think the government should mandate this sort of thing, though I don't think you should be able to run to the government for xb when you've spend somewhere close to that on share buybacks in the recent years. Just using American Airlines as an example here, look at what they've spent on buybacks - https://ycharts.com/companies/AAL/stock_buyback

Loan guarantees and loans at low interest rates are fine IMO. With some strings attached relating to how they're spending this money and oversight. I'd rather not see these companies push this cash into buybacks.

I agree with a good amount of what is here. Always happy to see a long Theymos post as well. Starting with the money printing side of things, I've read a good amount of articles and such talking about how this isn't going to cause inflation beyond typical levels due to the fact that spending is HEAVILY depleted here. One of the things that would typically happen in a time like this, without any government intervention, would be deflation. But we don't live in a world anymore where government intervention is foreign -- the only REAL data point we can use in the Modern Era is the Obama Stimulus package and the Great Recession, which saw inflation peak around 3.5 percent even with an 800b+ stimulus package.

These two circumstances obviously aren't exactly the same as I do think there were some tax decreases in the Obama stimuls packages. See here for info on what exactly those were - https://www.thebalance.com/what-was-obama-s-stimulus-package-3305625

Couldn't agree more when you talk about businesses getting bailouts and expecting bailouts. That's something that was talked about after the bank bailouts, that banks were taking on increased risk b/c of the fact that they knew the government would bail them out. If you know you have a free pass, is it really your fault if you use it? I'm not going to talk about the fact that the government actually did profit from the bailouts, because they could've used this money more effectively -- lowering taxes for the middle class.

Very interesting tracker for the bailouts is going to be here, by ProPublica - https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/

Businesses that are in industries that are VERY susceptible to this sort of thing should be ready for this to happen. Plus the fact that these companies have been highly profitable for decades and have been taking this cash and rewarding shareholders with it. Money that they COULD'VE set aside to ensure that they were ready for a black swan event.

Even though we're having this great discussion here, politicians are still only going to care about the short term job losses b/c the voters care about the short term. When most Americans can't afford a $400 expense, politicians are going to focus on ensuring that they have a stable income, even if it's not the best choice. In a perfect world you'd be rewarded for being ready for a black swan, not being rewarded for doing the opposite. But we're not in that world I guess.

Welp. Honestly having a hard time keeping track of time in quarantine, just feels like a permanent Saturday where the only thing I can do is work but I can do it whenever. Thanks for the correction though, I appreciate it!

My point still stands regarding the fact that I'd hope people can rise above politics and support him during this very tough time.

+1 to all of this.

The CDC is recommending that people wear it ensure that they're not spreading the virus to others, not to stop the spread to themselves. This is because 25 percent of people with the coronavirus are showing no symptom and are going to spread the virus at a much higher rate then those that can assume that they have it.

CDC - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html

Yeah I don't think any of us, anyone in the media, anyone writing articles, and so on and so forth understand that when you're this close to the presidency -- you're not going to just drop out to be a team player. Maybe if you were a younger democrat and you thought it would be benifitical down the line (think of someone like Mayor Pete) but if you're an older person and you can't wait another 4 years for another shot, you're gonna stick in this and hope and pray.

I can't even imagine what that would be like. Imagine being this close to being the leader of the free world and then losing the election? Whew. Thank god none of us on here will be close to that, hehe.

Been hospitalized for a days now I'm pretty sure, as he'd been showing corona symptoms for 11 days now. Guy was just transferred over to intensive care, I'm assuming he has some sort of existing condition -- and he's also in the category of people where this hits the hardest, the older people.

Hopefully he gets well soon even if you hate him or his politics, this is a serious situation and you don't want to see anyone sick. Guy has a family and all of that.

Grats on this man, you're entering a campaign that truly is run by one of the best campaign managers! Congrats to Cabalism for moving on up to FJ.

Merits all around folks. Stay safe during these troubling times.

But that's the point, the point is for the masses to suffer so they begin to rebel against their government. Sanctions typically aren't going to cripple to people at the top, as they have MANY other means to gain $$$ -- they can avoid traditional markets (Stocks,Bonds, etc) and just go ahead and sell drugs (Maduro)

By the way you're explaining things, it seems like this is just a system of corruption that has only been further expanded by the Maduro regime b/c of the hurt that come from US sanctions. The US thinks that at a certain point the people aren't going to allow the government to continue to exploit them, and they're going to rebel and instill a democratic government. Eh?

Maybe I'm wrong here, just spitballing with ya.