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2621  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Looking for signature campaign 👀 on: June 22, 2022, 11:45:47 AM
I expected that the number of signature campaigns would decrease with the falling of bitcoin price (Bear market,) as spending on advertising would decrease because many companies are struggling to survive, but I was surprised by the number of companies doing advertising.

The number of new people who join decreases as the price of Bitcoin goes down, so if you have more time try to develop yourself and you will find yourself in a suitable position to join one of the long-term signature campaigns.

Try to prove yourself and campaign managers will be the ones to call you.
2622  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: Have BTC want Western Union on: June 22, 2022, 11:35:16 AM
Try localcryptos, you will get good offers for a cheap price, unfortunately the money will be sent from some African countries, but if you want from Europe, the price difference may be about 5%. Generally, search and you will find some options.

Other alternative:


Some scam (newbie accounts) may contact you, so be careful.
2623  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Publicly Listed Mining Companies on: June 22, 2022, 11:14:00 AM
What makes sense in investing in mining company shares instead of buying mining tools?
It works with the same logic and not a different logic in the sense that when problems occur related to Bitcoin, the shares of those companies will perform negatively.

Therefore, the performance of stocks is not as important as the nature of the investment, and it is not different from cryptocurrencies unless you are looking for a little legislative cover that the Securities Commission provides you with.

2624  Economy / Economics / Re: Micheal Salyor decalogue for a 10x Bitcoin Appreciation on: June 22, 2022, 10:21:48 AM
I like to listen to logical people who do not have investments in bitcoin because their opinions will be less biased, provided that those opinions are after research and not convictions that have no meaning. Grin

I agree with him in some parts such as unregulated crypto exchanges, ignorance and the absence of institutional regulation, this regulation will eliminate many Altcoin/DeFi that claim to be decentralized, but they are completely centralized.

But when we come to mentioning stable currencies, if they are centralized or from regulatory bodies, then they are paper money in digital form. It is better to say that a decentralized stable currency must be developed that does not need reserves, but it is something that is closer to the impossible now, especially in the case of market fluctuations.

UST was a failed model for thAT, but it is an idea worth developing.
2625  Economy / Economics / Re: {Economy} What is happening in Japan? on: June 22, 2022, 09:55:24 AM
The Yen is already down -20% this year

The country imports products from abroad, so to keep the same prices unchanged, the country must continue burning reserves in the Forex market.


but the bank of Japan can print money without any fear that the society would collapse, or it can borrow whatever money it wants because everybody knows they will pay back. And that has become a real problem, because governments do not care enough about balancing the budget.

Assuming that this was true in the past, it is impossible for this statement to continue to be true in the future. If interest rates on the balance sheet are less than 4%, then tax revenues cannot account for those costs.



referring to the thread, I personally think that this country has the power and perspective in regulating its economy. Whether it's the printing of the value of the amount of money in circulation so that it has such an impact (inflation) so that the performance of state revenues, both import and export, gains their economy.

According to my information about Japan, the Central Bank was charged with increasing inflation to about 2% from negative rates. It even tried to give negative interest to attract Japanese people to spend. Now, inflation will increase for reasons beyond the control of the state, which leads to reverse deflation on the part of the Japanese, which may increase the matter either.


2626  Economy / Economics / Re: Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity on: June 22, 2022, 09:36:16 AM
What is the point at which we can say that this model has become "broken" and unreliable in the future?
I think we should never expect a model to predict the exact future, but it can be nice to visualize things, start discussion or get ideas and orientation across. Math cant predict politics, manipulation or human decision making

If we are above 50k, then we can say that the model is working as the assumption of reaching 100k would have been logical if we continued in the region of 40k to 70k, but what is happening now (if we consider it the bottom) then the maximum ATH during the next four years will be About 150k which is far away from the model.

I doubt that it is even close to impossible to get a 3x to 8x BTC price rise from here within the next 3 to 30 months.
The model was working fine until last November, but even before the Ukrainian crisis it was difficult to reach the levels of 100k, we hope that all these events are due to political factors and abnormal conditions and that we will return again soon.
2627  Other / Meta / Re: No, the forum server did not go down. on: June 21, 2022, 08:46:38 PM
Weird, I was offline at that time, but I was following the news without logging in and I did not encounter any problems, it seems that the problem did not last long.
It is a good opportunity to get acquainted with all the central services.
Bitcointalk problems became less with cloudflare, despite all the flaws.
2628  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Which exchange has less hassles in terms of multiple verifications? on: June 21, 2022, 08:40:09 PM
If there are fewer eyes on the platform and it has high trading volumes, you will definitely not have problems with identity verification.
The worst thing is that you may need two weeks to verify the identity, but it is a process that you will do once and not every time, so look for the speed of responses of the support team and their response to your problems, not the process itself.

Some of the people above suggest OKX, KUCOIN but they allow their owner to withdraw without identity verification, so many use them without identity verification.
2629  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: Exchanging Perfect Money for USDT on: June 21, 2022, 08:00:10 PM
you can find a list here https://www.bestchange.com/perfectmoney-usd-to-tether-erc20.html
Check all the information and use one of these platforms, they are good for small amounts.
You can continue with your topic but building trust takes time.
2630  Economy / Economics / Re: Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity on: June 21, 2022, 06:55:41 PM
Today I watched @VitalikButerin attacks Stock-to-Flow Model aggressively, I'll quote the tweet:

Quote
Stock-to-flow is really not looking good now.

I know it's impolite to gloat and all that, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of certainty and predestination that number-will-go-up are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get.

What is the point at which we can say that this model has become "broken" and unreliable in the future?
I remember reading somewhere that if the price does not reach 100k by the end of the world, the model will be broken.

For NOW, with everything that is happening in the world, it is almost impossible to return to a level closer 70k-100k, so do we have to wait for the end of the year or what?
2631  Economy / Economics / {Economy} What is happening in Japan? on: June 21, 2022, 06:48:13 PM
I haven't seen a thread analyzing what's happening in Japan, despite all the recent changes that have taken place.
I will try to update the topic with good links, and I hope you can help me with that:



Japan's debt to GDP ratio FAR exceeds any other country in the world (it was okay in a deflationary environment)


Inflation in Japan maintained the same level. Even after the Fukushima disaster, Japan stopped relying on nuclear energy and replaced it with fossil energy and liquefied natural gas, which did not cause inflation.


Can this go on forever? Could Japan be "a deflationary island on its own?"

"Borrow at Yen %, invest at USD %"


Now the question is, HOW BAD is japan's situation?

https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/budget/statistics/IMFSDDS/index.html




Quote
NARA, Japan, July 8 (Reuters) - Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest-serving leader, died on Friday hours after he was shot while campaigning for a parliamentary election, shocking a country in which political violence is rare and guns are tightly controlled.


Many thanks and source @genesisvol twitter account

2632  Economy / Economics / Re: Inflation will not fall to 2% target for two years, Fed's Mester says on: June 21, 2022, 06:09:08 PM

Inflation doesn't happen just because you print money (see Japan)
I think that inflation in Japan and the nature of the market there needs a separate school of thought because it is not subject to most of the current investment laws, so we cannot consider it an example that we can rely on.

The culture of thrift in Japan (Secondhand Tokyo https://savvytokyo.com/thrift-like-a-local-the-tokyo-west-edition/) is not just a habit that occurs when the economic situation becomes deteriorating, but it has become a culture of the people.

Therefore, there is no reason to mention the issue that some inflation factors are outside the Fed's control.
2633  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Exchange Manipulation? on: June 20, 2022, 01:01:48 PM
Most of the stories of market manipulation, especially in low Marketcap new altcoins, will not be without these platforms:

  • YOBIT
  • Hitbtc
  • changelly

They have a long history of unknown activities, including pumping/dumping coins, bots scam, withdrawing liquidity suddenly, not allowing clients to withdraw,...etc.

coingecko give you a Trust Score which includes Liquidity, Scale, Cybersecurity, API Coverage, Team, and Incident scores.

https://www.coingecko.com/en/exchanges/yobit#trust_score
2634  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoins Crossed 20k USD!! Don’t lose hope now. on: June 20, 2022, 12:20:19 PM
We can say that we are safe if the price breaks the 23.4k, which is the largest resistance line, and continues to rise or breaking the resistance at 28k dollars.
Other than that, they are temporary changes and will not affect the overall price outlook, but only the daily movement within the resistance area.
The price of 20k by itself does not determine where the price will go, has no importance in building points of support and resistance, and therefore these rises are natural reactions after a strong selling wave that pushed the price for a third of its value.

You will hear a lot of analyzes and some of them may seem conflicting, but it is difficult to accurately predict the price in the short term.
2635  Economy / Economics / Inflation will not fall to 2% target for two years, Fed's Mester says on: June 20, 2022, 11:57:26 AM
Quote
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said it will take two years for inflation to fall to the central bank's 2% target, adding that it will be "moving down" gradually from the current level.

A surge in inflation, which is at its highest level in 40 years, has made hawks of nearly all Fed policymakers, only one of whom dissented earlier this week against what was the central bank's biggest rate increase in more than a quarter of a century.

"It isn't going to be immediate that we see 2% inflation. It will take a couple of years, but it will be moving down," Mester said in an interview with CBS News on Sunday.

Mester said she was not predicting a recession despite slowing growth.

"We do have growth slowing to a little bit below trend growth and we do have the unemployment rate moving up a little bit. And that is OK, we want to see some slowing in demand to get it in line with supply," Mester added, referring to forecasts submitted in the past week by participants of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting.

Policymakers currently expect to raise the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate, now in a range of 1.50%-1.75%, to at least 3.4% in the next six months. A year ago, the majority thought the rate would need to stay near zero until 2023.

On Friday, the Fed called its fight against inflation "unconditional."

Source: https://www.investing.com/news/economy/feds-mester-says-it-will-take-2-years-until-inflation-falls-to-2-target-2838671


  • Do you think that the Federal Reserve has enough power to control inflation within 2% over the next two years?
  • Do you think Fed can do that without causing a recession that may last for several years?

Inflation that is happening now is linked to several factors that the United States may not be able to move well, so Fed should be careful about monetary policy, analyzes indicate an interest rate of at least 3.4% in the next six months, which means more rate hikes of about 50 basis points each meeting in the coming months.
2636  Economy / Exchanges / Re: Coinbase sued in connection with promotion of TerraUSD cryptocurrency on: June 20, 2022, 11:21:24 AM
If they focus their efforts on proving that $LUNA is a scam project or know that its algorithm will fail at some point and do not make any efforts to close such loopholes, they may find cooperation from the judicial system, but attacking Coinbase is like trying to accuse Robinhood in GameStop stock case.
There were some warnings in this tweet

https://twitter.com/freddieraynolds/status/1463960623402913797

Date: 9:59 PM · Nov 25, 2021·Twitter Web App

It can only be investigated if an investigation was opened about Luna and it was proven that there was a price manipulation with the help of some Coinbase, but until that time they have nothing legal against the platform.
2637  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC back at 20K. Imagine who sold at 17.7K. on: June 20, 2022, 11:01:59 AM
Fear, greed, hope, wishful thinking are the emotions that create money and are the same emotions that lead to losing money.
If these emotions and feelings control you, you will most likely lose in the medium and long term. the best solution is to build a trading strategy that takes advantage of market fluctuations without achieving losses at least.

I don't know, but I don't see a logical reason for someone to sell in the previous days except:

  • Shorting: trying to sell now assuming that the price will continue to go down and buy later.
  • Needs that money badly at the present time or for an emergency circumstance.
2638  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: ColdCard: why would you create a backup file? on: June 20, 2022, 10:31:35 AM
ColdCard backup file is just a standard 7z archive file with AES-256 encryption by a strong password.
you can decrypt that file using any 7z archive tool and have full access of your funds.

Personally, I recommend you to ignore this option because it means that you will need to keep that data digitally, and to decrypt it you need a strong password, which needs to be either stored digitally (risk) or written on paper (the easiest is to use 12 words seeds), so it is an alternative option if you want ( like Core backup file)
2639  Bitcoin / Wallet software / Re: Samourai wallet in early access as far as I can remember.. on: June 20, 2022, 10:15:54 AM
I remember that there was a detailed discussion about legitimate concerns, which raised many questions, most of which the developer team did not manage to answer.

If you have time to follow the story, these links are good for you to know about it


You can search on the Internet and you will find more, so the developer team is trying to disclaim all responsibility using that phrase.
2640  Economy / Reputation / Re: dont trust in arabic people on: June 20, 2022, 09:59:31 AM
This topic Merry Christmas to the Forum is similar to the case mentioned above, however, it got about 9 merits from @Cyrus

A Crypto Christmas; Using Bitcoin to help feed the homeless got hugeblack (10), CryptopreneurBrainboss (Cool, Pokapoka124 (6), Ratimov (5), Rruchi man (5), RickDeckard (5), buwaytress (2), Mpamaegbu (2), Darker45 (2), LogitechMouse (2), Halab (2), Smartvirus (2), mdayonliner (2), Accardo (2), davis196 (1), rhomelmabini (1), hyudien (1), levyashin (1), Jawhead999 (1), CryptocurencyKing (1), Poker Player (1) Merits.

Therefore, we cannot describe the situation as a Merit abuse, and therefore we cannot generalize to Arabic local board or to all Arabs.
If you give a more detailed Merit abuse topic, you may find some sympathy, but you are trolling for now.
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