proudhon, do you think this has predictive power? The order book change is usually a contrarian indicator, if at all. I have to say I’ve only watched the changes to 5 and 6.2, but I am trying to stop it because it distorts my views. It’s completely useless unless for the big bid walls when you want to buy/sell them or place orders in front of them.

The order book is like the tide.

I’ve redrawn the trendline responsible for 5.05 and it is perfectly bouncing off it again so far, so I think could have bottomed out with that double bottom. Bears are likely out of Bitcoins and will want them back.

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1328535554210.png

It’s going to happen eventually. You really think this 2-3 week consolidation will just go on without being resolved either up or down?

I can tell you it will be broken, and the resulting move will be big (and decisive for the next few weeks or months).

Your attitude reminds me of when people take notice that the price has been pretty stable lately, and they think the market has stabilized now, only to find it go crazy a day after.

Ready since 5.45. The almighty trendline will deliver another bounce, just like it did from 5.05.

http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1328523908556.png

But I agree, this is a long-term consolidation/trading range with uncertain outcome as long as we don’t violate former lows (4.64, 5.05, maybe 5.45) or highs (7.2, 6.2, maybe 5.8).

I have a bearish bias on the outcome, though, but we’ll see.

[Early June 2011]

See it?

Why the hell not? There’s been a rally from November to January, so if we consider it over, it’s interesting to extrapolate how much downside we had last time a 3 months rally ended.

You shouldn’t take it seriously. I don’t think it would go that far. It’s just a provoking thought experiment.

How do you know this is not the height of a bubble? It may be healthier, but that doesn’t mean much.

Update http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1328494454347.png

Price has bounced off the mid term trendline for the second time now. We may have done a double bottom, but there has also been a kind of double top at 5.8.

Interesting stuff going on for sure.

For the record, the 5.6 bid wall disappeared before the price went down there yesterday.

So I agree, there is huge manipulation here on the order book, and that this is still happening is unbelievable.

It’s not a currency at all. There is not a single community which would accept Bitcoins because they are Bitcoins, and not because they are worth xyz Dollars according to some Magic the Gathering exchange, where the exchange rate is decided by speculators and Bitcoinica casino players.

It’s evident when you see the system Silk Road has in place. The prices are even given in USD.

You also buy Bitcoins. Obviously, you buy them with money. When you sell them, you get money. The fiat is the money and BTC is the asset.

1) I still see scams and hacks, but yes, it’s much smaller scale.

2) Yes, it’s really not going anywhere. WHAT has Bitcoin "unlocked" since Silk Road came out in February 2011? I’m serious, there hasn’t been anything significant since SR. I immediately bought Bitcoins when Silk Road came out.

3) Transaction count is meaningless because it can be manipulated with "fake" transactions.

And … Has any fundamental data helped you come to a decision where you could sell Bitcoins high and rebuy lower? The price is usually the leading indicator for fundamentals. For example, the MtGox hack happened AFTER Bitcoin topped out. The hacks and scams and shitty atmosphere happened AFTER, WHILE and BECAUSE Bitcoin was "consolidating" 94%.

Do you really think I believe I could manipulate the Bitcoin market via a forum thread? Don’t be ridiculous.

I want to discuss an absurd idea I had, and the feedback I’m getting from eternal bulls seems to support the bag holding that is possibly repeating from summer.

I have SHARED ARGUMENTS based on my analysis in my posting: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=62696.msg732366#msg732366

You haven’t answered them but instead come up with your typical "blah blah fundamentals; no reason to sell 1 single Bitcoin because UP UP UP".

Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?

In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"

I had a similar "epiphany" when I lost a few hundred BTC trading and made them back plus a few hundred more, proudhon. I can never gain any USD if I’m not willing to lose them, but the very same is true for Bitcoins!

What a long time it has taken me to understand something as simple as that.

Technomage, what kind of "fundamental decline" happened from June to November, then? And what has suddenly changed since the 2 dollar low in November?

Then you probably would have no problem with another 94% decline anyway. I think it’s a funny "what if" scenario.

Also, I have given reasoning in my posts #2 and 3 here. If you think my thread is pointless, then perhaps speculation is pointless.

No, I’m not. But I’m telling him that he would have found people crazy too if they suggested Bitcoin would decline that far back in May to August.

Also, if Technomage says there is "no reason to panic or sell a single BTC", then IMO it’s time to shit your pants.

32*0.06=1.92

Now do the same for 7.22

I bet you would have said the same if someone predicted it in May-August.

Now, for the fellow chartists: http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1328458777598.png

We have 3 trendlines, let’s call them short, mid and long term.

Short term is broken, mid term is about to be tested now.

Yes, exactly my thoughts when Bitcoin went IMO pretty low with 4 USD in September.. Bitcoin is kind of too small and too poorly distributed to exist. It’s a race for adoption, and we are losing it.

And now my hypothesis for why this could be happening:

Bitcoin distribution is still very poor, as can be seen by the big sells, bid walls and ask walls which lead to a concentration of BTC.

The fact that we have had one year of difficulty 1 at the beginning along with a couple dudes from the cryptography mailing list and the same BTC production as nowadays does not help.

There is also little influx of new Bitcoin users, differently from what people hoped to see the Good Wife episode do.