As someone that doesn't think there was any fraud, an international group that has fuck all to do with U.S. elections "watching" an election overseas is dodgy and makes me have less faith that there wasn't fraud.
"International monitor" for a U.S. election sounds like an oxymoron.
+1 to at least the first portion of this. No reason for international monitors to say much here. It's not like we have international groups in state election boards ensuring that everything is on the up and up. That really wouldn't make much sense at all to be honest. The only people who would most likely have reports are fraud are going to be those working at the USPS, those working at state election boards, and county election boards. That's really it. This is literally just a random thing to hit the news. I do not think that there was widespread voter fraud as well, though who tf cares what other countries think regarding this. |
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No, it's not okay under any circumstances. We just need proof. I can't go around pointing to election fraud and have nothing when someone asks me for proof of actual ballots that were submitted fraudulently.
+1 to that. Lying or cheating to steal an election is not okay at all. Lying on a campaign trail is pretty common, but the result of this isn't 'stealing an election' Cheating on a campaign trail, well that's up to people other then myself to decide what 'cheating' is. But yeah, for all of this 'widespread election fraud' we're going to need some proof to back it. Right now it just sounds like a ton of baseless conspiracy theories. |
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Pfizer announced a 90% effective vaccine recently. Of course, this announcement comes after the election. Glad Joe Biden, days after his victory, was ALREADY able to produce a vaccine. Crazy how fast he works.
Pretty sure Joe Biden is not saying that he is the reason for this. Trump Admin tried to take credit, though it came out that Pfizer was not apart of Operation Warp Speed, which was the government funded program to try to get a vaccine / other medical breakthroughs handled with COVID. Pfizer actually got their funding, or at least help with funding, from the German government. It was always going to end up political. If it was released before / after. Before - Trump looks better, After - No one really looks better, though it doesn't help Trump. |
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Humble in his defeat? Totally not. But will he leave when he must? Yes. Donald Trump has build a persona to this point that there is no way that HE could lose to SOMEONE LIKE SLEEPY JOE, so it would be hard for him to come to terms to that publicly. Privately it seems like Donald Trump is beginning to accept the fact that he has lost, as there are rumors from sources (AXIOS NEWS) that Trump is thinking about a 2024 run. Will he probably make the transition a bit difficult for Joe Biden? Yes. That's team Trump though. Donald Trump is literally going to try to litigate this in the courts, though as I said before I do truly think that he is privately beginning to accept that he has lost. AXIOS SOURCE - https://www.axios.com/trump-2024-presidential-run-4add0d86-02be-41f9-b2fd-5aaca96ce6ce.html |
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He'll grab whatever he can on his way out. He was golfing on Saturday already, expect a lot of that, or just staying at Mar-a-Lago to maximize the "business" his properties get from his entourage. There are probably many other ways he can enrich himself. Pardons are very likely. I don't think there's going to be anything strategically political from Trump. Likely the opposite. He will end up blaming everyone - including Republicans and his own voters - for his loss.
+1 to this. There really isn't a ton for an outgoing President to really do. He, and the Senate, can make some appointments to judicial appointments (but ya know, McConnell is going to have to agree with him here) He can totally pardon people, commute sentences, and issue tons of EO's that make it kinda hard for the Biden admin to reverse. Biden can't reverse the pardons and such, though he can reverse the EO's -- though it may take sometime, which was evident when it came to Obama's Dreamer EO's I've read in a few articles that he can shift some of his appointments into regular bureaucrat positions that can't be forced out by Biden as quickly. Yet again though, this is possible though it is kinda petty. Wouldn't be surprised if it was done, though pettiness is never really rewarded with too much. |
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Trump will leave the White House. Joe Biden's campaign manager was insinuating that he would need to physically remove Trump earlier is pure partisan bullshit. He said something alone the lines of "The WH has the power to remove trespassers". Give it a break.
I would have said the same thing a couple of months ago. But now seeing how desperately Trump is trying the create a narrative of election fraud when there is none, I wouldn't be surprised if he calls on his supporters to create a "CHAZ" (WHAZ?) around the White House to defend him. Eh. I know that right now it looks like Trump isn't going to leave and is going to try to stay. I don't agree with that at all. Trump considering a 2024 run is evident of him partially accepting that he has lost the race, and he must begin to move on in the near future. He's not going to go out and say that he lost happily because he's Trump. He talks about winning and being the best and whatever whatever. Hard for someone like him to accept, publicly, that he lost to 'Sleep Joe' fair and square. The legal battle will continue, but it will most likely get nowhere. Trump may run in 2024, but I really don't think he will. He'll probably go into some sort of media company and use his followers to make some cash from that. He'll still be, and still is, powerful within the GOP. |
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I can see it now. I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago. Some one please chime in with his name.
Everybody has an opinion, but the name is Grover Cleveland. Personally, I think that the chance of this happening is low, but non-zero, of course. Chance = Yes. But as you said, super low. But the only possible chance is Donald J Trump winning, the former President, not any of his sons or anything along those lines. If anyone would like to make a new "Trump or not Trump" 1:1 bet for 2024 - you know where to find me  . Same conditions as per OP, just add 4 years to dates. 0.01 BTC minimum, 1 BTC max (total budget). Escrow required unless you're in my trust list and the amount is 0.1 BTC or less. To make it more bearable let's make it any Trump and throw in Jared too. You bet on: Donald J Trump, or one of his children (Ivanka, Don Jr, Eric, Tiffany), or one of his past/current spouses, or Jared Kushner. I bet on: none of the above. Any takers? I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure.
Let's see how sure I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that Only person with a real chance, like I said above, is Donald J Trump. None of his sons or Kushner is going to be able to get people to vote for them like the elder Trump did. |
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I can see it now. I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago. Some one please chime in with his name.
Grover Cleveland? God. I completely forgot that we actually have had a President who has done that before. Very different time though. Given this age of mass information and media, I don't think that Trump will REALLY run in 2024. Trump will talk about it to keep himself relevant, though I do just expect him to buy some sort of media company or start his own and try to get his massive following to use it for their information. He's still VERY powerful within the GOP and is the reason that they were able to win down the ballot. MANY people who are currently in office are only there because of Trump (I'm looking at YOU Ron DeSantis) Nice win on this though SuchMoon. |
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I was watching the news before and they were saying penselvanian mailing ballots could be received 3 days after the election to still be counted - although according to the Democrats Biden ihas already won. Still if their post is efficient as Europe thateans someone could post early in the morning the day after the election (or 2 days after) and still have a balot delivered on time albeit risky...
It must be postmarked no later than election day. Some states give as long as 10 days but it's extremely unlikely that any significant number of ballots would be received more than 2-3 days after the election. Yeah it's very state dependent based on when it has to be postmarked and such. I know some states make you have it in that day, regardless of postmarked, some allow it to be many days later. But yeah none of this is going to actually matter at this point. For the places that already called it for Joe Biden (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) the amount of outstanding ballots aren't even enough to change the fate of the election in these states even if they all go for Trump, which they will not. |
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Moving from the other thread: Pretty sure there are some bitcoin services for that
I'm a bit concerned about random crypto bookies, I don't trust their decision logic. So I did it in fiat on PredictIt, already up $100 since yesterday. Not sure if I should take it or let it ride... Edit: this a bet on Biden winning Georgia. PolyMarket (the ETH) one is pretty good, or at least I've heard,haven't used it myself. Fair on not liking random crypto bookies. Especially because the ones that are offering state by state stuff are going to be a bit more.... interesting, to say the least. Most of the reputable ones, like Stake.com (which is owned by PrimeDice) is only offering (or was only offering) betting on the Presidential race as a whole, not betting for a particular state. I'm not a big fan of PredictIt due to the massive fees during usage. Pretty sure they take like 5% of all bets. |
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This is going to cost a lot of jobs. But what's even more unsurprising is that Oregon voted to decriminalize all drugs, including black tar heroin, meth, coke, the usual.
I swear voters are too stupid to make decisions that really should be left to policy makers in the state legislature.
On the Oregon thing, I think it's a pretty good move. Why should police resources be wasted on policing something that isn't solved with more police? The way to solving drug addictions and such is treating addiction like a medical illness, which it is. Spending tons of money on police raids, busts, overtime, and so on don't do anything to stop the drug trade. Plus if you want to smoke weed, do shrooms, and so on -- who are you hurting if you're doing it by yourself and aren't going to drive / have kids to take care of. Other laws don't magically go away because drug laws have loosened. If you're a negligent that's still a thing, plus if you get behind the wheel it's still a DUI. |
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Trump still has a chance in AZ, as in NV. He could also possibly flip WI. MI seems less likely.
Trump has outperformed predictions across the board. The same is true for down-ballot races. Some were predicting Democrats to pick up as many as 15 House seats, and there was a prediction on election night that Democrats would pick up 5 House seats, however Republicans ended up gaining at least 5 House seats, and it seems likely they will flip as many as an additional 7 House seats. Democrats were also favored to flip the Senate, however, that also looks especially unlikely at this time.
I'm not optimistic at all. Seems like we're getting our hopes up for nothing. Fox News was the first org. to call AZ then AP called AZ. Fox covered this election fairly and I don't think they'd risk calling AZ early. Nate Silver talked about it being too early to call which gave me hope but being down 3 points + is what bothers me. I would say that NV or AZ going Trump's way is more likely than WI or MI. NV (and to a lesser extent, AZ) has an economy that is heavily based on tourism, and tourism is not possible when the country is locked down. Trump may perform better in Reno and Vegas than he might do in other cities because of the tourism employees voting Trump to avoid lockdown related layoffs and casinos going out of business that would happen under a Biden administration. In AZ, it will really come down to Maricopa county. I understand he needs about 57% of the remaining vote in Maricopa county to stay competitive in AZ. Flipping one of AZ, NV, WI or MI would likely put Trump back in the White House until 2024. It may come down to a court case making it to the SC. Trump can also technically still win even if he does not flip any of those states, but otherwise runs the table (takes PA, GA, and NC). If Trump were to stop any of AZ, NV, WI, or MI from casting their electrical votes, Biden would not make it to 270, and Congress would elect the President with each state getting one vote, and Republicans hold the advantage. WI and MI have both been called for Biden. AZ has been called for Biden as well, though it seems like this call may have been too early. News reports are saying that with the amount of absentee ballots Trump could still pull the state back. - If Biden ends up winning this, then NV can decide the fate of this election. NV has not been called, it's close right now as they're counting the absentee ballots. I think Trump will pull through and win this. I agree with the analysis about AZ and NV regarding the tourism industry and why they'll be a bit happier to turn to Trump regarding opening the economy. GA is going to be tight, Pennsylvania as well. Friday will probably be when we hear about these. |
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End to end encryption itself a biggest lie, or a marketing gimmick because it has been found that end to encrypted calls and chats can be accessed without need of decrypt and can read what has been inside so we are not having any privacy at all when it comes to social media.
Very possible this could be true, especially if using sites that are not trusted and that can be manipulated, but unlike some social network like WhatsApp, I do not think users data can be leaked. But, do you have any link or something that this is well addressed, about how end-to-end encryptions are actually not real. Well, when things are encrypted and the private key for the encryption isn't in the hands of the company who is encrypting it for you -- like Signal -- then you're going to be fine. Legal investigations have shown that even Facebook doesn't have the private keys for WhatsApp, as in the case of the Mueller investigation, they were not able to get Facebook to decrypt the communication because they had no way to do that. They were able to get Michael Cohen because of the fact that he was backing up his unencrypted backups of WhatsApp to ICloud which Apple was able to hand over. Governments will continue to compromise privacy, though people have to get smarter. |
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How long it takes for the counting and announcement. Is the election results were getting delayed, or it is happening same as in the past years. Myself out of US has been watching the election result for a long, but after the count reaching Biden 238 against Trump reaching 214 there is no big change for a long. Now once again Biden count has reached 264.
For states with large mail-in ballot backlogs like Pennsylvania - it can take until Friday to get them counted. Some states are prevented by law to start counting mail-in ballots before election day so it was inevitable that this would drag on. Yeah I'm pretty sure this is something that a lot of people are missing. Tons of people are bitching and moaning on Facebook, Twitter, etc talking about how Joe Biden is stealing the election because there are tons of votes that are 'being FOUND'. Like folks, they obviously have to count the absentee ballots and that is happening now. There have been no reports of voter fraud or anything along those lines. I also think that would be a hard thing to pull off, given that there are too many poll workers around to just randomly start scamming a county's election board. Florida was called so quickly because they were allowed, by state law, to begin counting absentee ballots early. Pennsylvania was not allowed to do the same thing, which is why this is taking so long. |
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I'm happy that you explained that this isn't something that is going to go into effect ASAP. It's not like Florida is going to take its min wage that is pretty close to the federals $7.25 and instantly doubling it which would kill small businesses overnight.
We're all expecting some sort of information from DeSantis' office and the state legislature on if they're going to provide relief for small businesses that are going to be pretty hurt by this. Obviously big retailers like Walmart, Target, 7-Eleven, and so on are going to be able to withstand the brunt of this. Though the mom and pop pizza place may not have the resources for that, especially in this environment.
Then again -- it's a slow path forward for the min wage to move up anyway. Much better plan then just throwing it at $15 and smacking businesses while they're down.
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Looking like Biden might pull it off by a hair now. One thing is certain, the media was WAY off with their predictions of a landslide victory.
Going to be tight, and even if Biden wins the polls were yet again very wrong and professional poll aggregators, like 538, are looking pretty dumb right now. They gave Trump a 10% chance of winning overall and a 30% chance of winning Florida, NC, and Georgia, though it seems like all of those predictions are wrong. Not really sure on how you could mess up the polling stuff so bad in 2016 and not just be much more conservative this time around -- but I guess it has happened again. It's not like Trump has changed the voters that he targets or has changed his campaign in a massive way. Same white uneducated demographic with a bit of a difference on Latinos and Cubans which may have been the harder part to predict. |
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(Given I think GA and NC are going to end up for Trump)
If this thread wasn't moderated by a nazi I'd put some money on GA going to Biden. At the end of the day (well, one of those days within the next week or so) this election will probably turn out to be a good result for Democrats, considering that they had a barely alive candidate and still managed to flip a few states. Certainly not the type of a "blue wave" some hoped for but defeating an incumbent is always tough. Pretty sure there are some bitcoin services for that, bunch of ETH's ones as well. PolyMarket (ETH) - https://polymarket.com/market/which-party-will-win-georgia-in-the-2020-presidential-electionBTC is going to be a bunch of gambling websites. But back to the point - I do think that Trump will end up with Georgia. I know that the absentee ballots are being counted, which is cutting Trumps margin to razor thing territory. Expecting Trump to win by something like 2000-5000 votes at the end of all of this. Nothing to be extremely happy about, as Georgia voted for Trump by a 5% margin in 2016. Though Biden is very strong among the Black voters in Georgia. As I end most posts ----- WE'LL SEE. |
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Pretty sure this has been expected the entire time. Here's the Axios reporting talking about how Donald Trump was planning on declaring victory on election day, which he did (well technically it was 3am the next morning), and then he was going to begin filing lawsuits to stop the absentee ballots from being counted in certain states. I know this doesn't really compare to the Brooks Brothers riot, cause this isn't a recount. Though I do think that allowing other people into the area to supervise isn't a horrible idea. Then again, the admin just wants to stop the voting and get the courts involved. They really don't care about watching the ballots, lol. Axios Article - https://www.axios.com/trump-claim-election-victory-ballots-97eb12b9-5e35-402f-9ea3-0ccfb47f613f.html |
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Looking at exit polls Biden should win Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is not so certain.
This is probably skewed by mail-ins. Which should favor Biden even more.
Yup, most likely. Trump has pulled through and will probably win Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, and Florida. Pennsylvania will probably end up going to Trump. Trump will probably win this race IMO. Betting markets have completely flipped on their head here. But I guess there's still a lot of time. No Pennsylvania is 90%+ going to Biden. They just have to count the absentee ballots. 2.6 Million of them. We won't know until Friday. I don't know if the absentee ballots are going to be enough to propel Biden to victory there, depends on if the rest of the absentee ballots LOOK like the first batch in terms of how many of them are going to biden. If they're 4:1 Biden, then yes he'll be able to win, though if they're 3:1 Biden, it may not be enough. Pretty sure it's not 2.6M though. Senate is going to (most likely) end up Red though. CNN just called Michigan.
I am now going to allow myself to get my hopes up.
This has been a WILD RIDE OF EMOTIONS LOL. Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania are the ones that really matter here. (Given I think GA and NC are going to end up for Trump) |
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To suchmoon I am sorry for your loss. How big was the bet?
0.1 BTC It's not over yet Well this is going to shape up to be pretty interesting. Long night that I think Trump is going to end up winning, even if the margin ends up being tighter due to mail in ballots not being counted everywhere. If Trump actually does pull through the, pollsters are going to look pretty fucking dumb. Crazy, crazy, crazy. |
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