[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[eddie13]

(don't get any ideas eddie)

 
What's that supposed to mean?

IDK what their standard for an outcome is, but this is on the EC, or they have balls to call/pay it and possibly have to pay out both sides if shit happens..

[BayAreaCoins]

(I haven't verified this or anything)



(don't get any ideas eddie)

I'm shocked they already graded that bet... eh.

https://polymarket.com/market/will-trump-win-the-2020-us-presidential-election

Is still taking presidential bets.

[nullius]

Question:

Where do you think it went wrong nulli?

Answer:

... was it just doomed from the start?

On that note, I think ending colonialism may have been a great mistake.. I can think of many 3rd world countries that would be better off under foreign western rule because they obviously just don't have the intelligence to get their shit together on their own in years since..
National sovereignty for wildlings? I mean really, you must be redpilled on IQ no?

So, eddie, which colonial power should take paternalistic stewardship of the mentally retarded, atavistically primitive American third-world shithole that can’t even run an election without Democrat vote-stuffing shenanigans?

America is a dumb kid country that never grew up, after it ran away from Daddy England.  But the whilom Imperial Brits bolloxed the governance of their colonies; I think that America would be better off under the rule of a Continental European power.  (If but only at least one of them would restore a sane government; the fuckwit E.U. may as well be American.)

If people with a IQ under 100 weren't allowed to vote there wouldn't be any Dem. American votes. That would be no fun.

FYFY.

To be clear, eddie, I partly agree with you about colonialism—and I do know all about IQ.

I mean really, you must be redpilled on IQ no?

Protip:  The existence of liberal pseudointellectuals, some of whom score highly on psychometric tests of general intelligence, proves empirically that IQ is necessary but insufficient.  The perplexing problem of high-IQ idiots is one that I have spent years examining; but I will avoid hereby launching into a five thousand word scholarly essay on the topic...

Moreover, I don’t do drugs.  Thus, I don’t take any pills randomly offered to me by some weirdo black dude who wears sunglasses at night.

Whereas that “redpilled” metaphor is used by a spectrum of groups for which it ranges from incongruous, to... peinlich!

Sie sind entartet!

 ... a Wachowski brothers “sisters” story starring a Eurasian mutt, a black, and an ostensible female who would be completely androgynous if her breasts and buttocks were not so ample, with a plot about the salvation of Zion.

...Lilly Wachowski, who came out as trans along with her sister Lana after the films came out...

The Matrix first hit screens in 1999, when Lilly says "the corporate world wasn't ready" for an allegory - a story that can be interpreted to reveal a hidden meaning - about transgender people.

[...]

Once upon a time, I descended into the land of #redpilled #goyimknow to explain to them how foolish they look, using an image of a black man offering drugs as their allegory for discovering Adolf Hitler.  Just call me helpful.

Translation: *cringe*

a conversation I once with an old Jew about the worst humiliation to Hitler being entomoid neo-Nazis.

[philipma1957]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html

Read this article, probably behind paywall but I'll summarize -- Stacey Abrams is responsible for Georgia turning blue this election cycle.

She deserves praise from democrats, black vote turned out and cost Trump the state.

Now, the unfortunate thing is I don't think these people will turn out for the Georgia runoff election which means good chance Republicans secure a solid 52-48 senate majority. Just about the only silver lining this election cycle. That, and probably the house victories.

Actually if you look at Trump's 4 years and this election> Trump was helpful  to the Republican/conservative movement.

A) 200 conservative federal judges
B) 6 to 3 margins in the Supreme Court.
C) most likely holds the senate
D) most likely gained in the house.


If the cases go to the supreme court and they decide against trump it is a victory for the republicans. As Biden would have no ability to stack the court by diluting it to 13 judges..   Republicans would be able to say the court was not bipartisan they ruled against Trump.

So basically Trump has already won if you are a republican he helped you out greatly.

If you are a trump fan you have already won an election in 2016 and can help push trump and his daughter back into the office in 2024.

I can be sure That Trump is going to play it this way.  He will concede and run in 2024. He will open up Twitter Trump and call out the dems. for 4 years. Then TRUMP TRUMP ticket in 2024.

I can see it now.  I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago.  Some one please chime in with his name.

[iamsheikhadil]

I can be sure That Trump is going to play it this way.  He will concede and run in 2024. He will open up Twitter Trump and call out the dems. for 4 years. Then TRUMP TRUMP ticket in 2024.

I can see it now.  I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago.  Some one please chime in with his name.

I don't think this is going to happen, like if he reruns, I'm pretty sure he will lose. The thing is he is just trying to cater to his lovers and supporters that he hasn't really lost this election, through which he is saying everyone who voted for Biden is a "fraud". That itself offends almost every Biden voter who might have voted for Trump in 2016. These voters won't forget this at all, and will vote blue again in 2024 if Trump tries to rerun. When Hillary called Trump voters deplorable, it didn't go well. Now Trump said Biden voters are fraud.

[suchmoon]

I can see it now.  I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago.  Some one please chime in with his name.

Grover Cleveland?

[squatz1]

I can see it now.  I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago.  Some one please chime in with his name.

Grover Cleveland?

God. I completely forgot that we actually have had a President who has done that before.

Very different time though. Given this age of mass information and media, I don't think that Trump will REALLY run in 2024. Trump will talk about it to keep himself relevant, though I do just expect him to buy some sort of media company or start his own and try to get his massive following to use it for their information.

He's still VERY powerful within the GOP and is the reason that they were able to win down the ballot. MANY people who are currently in office are only there because of Trump (I'm looking at YOU Ron DeSantis)

Nice win on this though SuchMoon.

[Biodom]

I can see it now.  I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago.  Some one please chime in with his name.

Everybody has an opinion, but the name is Grover Cleveland.
Personally, I think that the chance of this happening is low, but non-zero, of course.

[suchmoon]

If anyone would like to make a new "Trump or not Trump" 1:1 bet for 2024 - you know where to find me . Same conditions as per OP, just add 4 years to dates. 0.01 BTC minimum, 1 BTC max (total budget). Escrow required unless you're in my trust list and the amount is 0.1 BTC or less. To make it more bearable let's make it any Trump and throw in Jared too.

You bet on: Donald J Trump, or one of his children (Ivanka, Don Jr, Eric, Tiffany), or one of his past/current spouses, or Jared Kushner.

I bet on: none of the above.

Any takers?

I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure.

Let's see how sure

[ibminer]

I bet on: none of the above.

Trump vs Biden....  I went with Brewster on this election..


Time for some real facts...

Tom MacDonald - No Lives Matter

 

[squatz1]

I can see it now.  I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure. Another president did this years ago.  Some one please chime in with his name.

Everybody has an opinion, but the name is Grover Cleveland.
Personally, I think that the chance of this happening is low, but non-zero, of course.

Chance = Yes. But as you said, super low.

But the only possible chance is Donald J Trump winning, the former President, not any of his sons or anything along those lines.

If anyone would like to make a new "Trump or not Trump" 1:1 bet for 2024 - you know where to find me . Same conditions as per OP, just add 4 years to dates. 0.01 BTC minimum, 1 BTC max (total budget). Escrow required unless you're in my trust list and the amount is 0.1 BTC or less. To make it more bearable let's make it any Trump and throw in Jared too.

You bet on: Donald J Trump, or one of his children (Ivanka, Don Jr, Eric, Tiffany), or one of his past/current spouses, or Jared Kushner.

I bet on: none of the above.

Any takers?

I predict that he wins the 2024 election for sure.

Let's see how sure

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that

Only person with a real chance, like I said above, is Donald J Trump. None of his sons or Kushner is going to be able to get people to vote for them like the elder Trump did.

[suchmoon]

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

[philipma1957]

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

I am a centrist.  I love Trumps wall idea 💡 not much else.

I like the idea of medical for all.

So basically every election for USA president I vote compromised as I don’t like either party much.

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

But trump will pivot.

[Gyfts]

I'd like to hop in on your side of this bet, SuchMoon, if we get enough people for that

There won't be enough people... I doubt there will be anybody, except maybe I can coerce philipma1957 because he said he was sure but he's not exactly a Trump supporter I think.

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

This was suppose to be a Biden victory walking away but less than a percent separated Biden and Trump in AZ, GA, WI, PA(?). It was a toss up in those states. Who would have expected this election to be this close?

And besides, with how bias the media was, it's not like Trump ever had a chance to begin with. The fact that Trump increased his support among minority voters really does shed light on where the democratic party is at right now, and how wrong the media was over the last 4 years painting Trump to be this neo-nazi that wants to chain up minorities and ship them to the gulag.

[PrimeNumber7]

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election, and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent. That's really bizarre given the amount and loudness of pro-Trump rhetoric here.

Umm, excuse me. I bet that Trump will be the President after the election is over. This is an even more bold bet than eddie13 made, as it effectively hinges on legal challenges by Trump/campaign.

[nullius]

Think about it - there is only one Trump supporter on this forum who was willing to put his money where his mouth is on the 2020 election,

Zeroth of all, that is a carefully worded lie by omission:  As you damn well know, a non-supporter of Trump bet on Trump.^*

And first of all, perhaps eddie was the only one willing to risk potentially giving money to you.

(* N.b., PrimeNumber7 posted when I had written most of this post, and I was looking for the perfect example of media bias directly targeted to influence the outcome.)

and that was a relatively advantageous bet on an incumbent.

Are you fucking dense?  

The betting markets are pricing a ~2/3 chance that Biden will win.

And besides, with how bias the media was,

Just for instance, brainwashing the voting votaries to believe that the outcome was a foregone conclusion—and by the way, my artistic eye appreciates the juxtaposition of a calm, placid Biden image juxtaposed against an upset-looking Trump image:


On Election Day, they just had to pump Biden’s EC chances by another percentage point:

(Images are links.  Clicky-clicky.)

[Trump was] a relatively advantageous bet

That's really bizarre

[suchmoon]

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

Fair enough.

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.

Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?

[Gyfts]

As a reformed compulsive gambler I would not bet you on anything at all.

Fair enough.

Betting on politics isn't a good idea ever unless your bet is better than the typical vegas odds. There are way too many variables to take into consideration and often times there isn't much rhyme or reason on the outcome.

I went on PredictIt (which as squatz1 mentioned has predatory fees so I don't really recommend) to make a quick bet on GA results. Made a couple hundred bucks on that one and sold early so I made some money on side bets because apparently people tend to bet with their emotions and put 15% on an obviously lost outcome. Not sure how that compares to Vegas.

Now 2024 is of course much more of a gamble since it's so far out so when someone says they're sure and I think the chance is significantly less than 50% - I'll offer an even-money bet on that. This seems fair, doesn't it? Alice is sure of one outcome, Bob thinks a different outcome is much more likely, even money seems to be good for both of them.

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?

I never checked the betting lines while the results were pouring in but the UK markets late night on November 3rd went from 37% Trump odds to a 75% Trump odds which I probably could have made a bet on. At no point in the night did the data support a 3/4 chance of a Trump win so it would have been a good bet anyone to take. Perhaps some emotional betting, perhaps some overzealous Trump supporters, who knows why the odds were that high.

As far as 2024 bets. I don't think Trump or his children will be successful at clinching the nomination (in fact it is a VERY good bet to take 1:1 against one of his children being the nominee and even I'd bet on that). Ted Cruz and Nikki Hayley will both be running in 2024 and I feel strongly about one of them winning. But like I said, I would never put my money where my mouth is because politics is way too unpredictable. In 2016, I would have bet my kidney that Trump would not have gotten the nomination, and we see how that turned out. I would have bet my other kidney that he wouldn't win the general. And we see how that turned out. Also one of these two (Cruz or Hayley) could get hit by a bus in the next 4 years and I'd be out of my sat. Unless, of course, there was a clause in the bet about getting ran over by a bus  


I also am not even sure if it's a good idea for any gambler to bet that Biden would even run in 2024. I think Kamala Harris probably would take over by then, and in that case I think odds favor Republicans to beat Kamala Harris instead of Biden with how unlikeable she is.

I wonder if Pence runs? Hmm. A Pence vs Harris Presidential race? Woah.

[B1tUnl0ck3r]

When the people of the world will get that covid was intentionally released to frame china, steal the election from trump, assure massive bail outs and foster the forced vaccination agendas...the current regime change / color revolution in the usa will be thwarted !

THE LAST 4 YEARS OF TRUMP, begin in January 2021 and biden and his syndicate will judged ala nuremberg by a court of chinese, russian and american patriots, then be executed for crime against the World !

MAGA ALL THE WAY !

[LoyceV]

Having said that, I'll take an even-money bet on Biden to. You bet on Biden 2024, I bet against. Anyone?

I don't like those odds, he has a life expectancy of 10 years, so there's a reasonable chance he won't even make it that long.