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541  Economy / Speculation / Re: This might just explains the whole Gox situation (included poll, please vote) on: January 13, 2014, 06:46:24 PM
After gox announced doubling the daily limits for PLN I tried selling 1BTC there for PLNs and withdrawing the money (with SEPA). Two months ago. No money in my account yet.
542  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 13, 2014, 06:05:40 PM
A propos 'unlocking events': http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/10/the-depressing-psychological-theory-that-explains-washington/

Once we have our belief we filter out the information that contradicts it.
543  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 13, 2014, 08:33:30 AM
When do we start threads with 'How does it feel to buy above $1000'?
544  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 12, 2014, 07:41:42 AM
Looks like they are closing the weekend rally a little bit earlier this week.
545  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wired.com: Overstock.com now accepting bitcoin on: January 10, 2014, 08:12:44 AM
This news is too old
But they did it sooner than announced first - so it is kind of new news, plus it has the persistent concrete aspect of not being just a media fact - but something that everyone can check.
546  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its going down in a few hours on: January 10, 2014, 08:10:45 AM
Imagining too much - smells desperation.
547  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wired.com: Overstock.com now accepting bitcoin on: January 10, 2014, 07:40:21 AM
On one hand:

1. I am skeptic about the business side of this - people don't generally buy stuff with bitcoins (unless they really need anonymity) - they invest in it.

2. This is only the USA - I did not even know what overstock is before these news


On the other hand:

1. This is really huge in legitimizing bitcoins as money - nothing better then showing that you can buy stuff with bitcoins from big retailers.

2. It is very concrete - everyone can go to overstock and check that this option is indeed there.

3. It is persistent - many people will not read the wired article, but they'll notice it when buying at overstock.
548  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wired.com: Overstock.com now accepting bitcoin on: January 09, 2014, 08:37:49 PM
Is this only USA related - or do they have branches in other countries?
549  Economy / Speculation / Re: Consolidating Trend -- A Page From Arepo's Notes on: January 09, 2014, 07:05:31 PM
update!

calling the short-term bottom here -- we will likely not see prices below $859/$765 (gox/stamp) for the next 3 - 5 days*.


Any update?
550  Economy / Speculation / Re: Part 2: Answer to "What will the government do to bitcoin?" on: January 09, 2014, 12:52:29 PM
You've got a talent! That mini-drama is funny as hell!
551  Economy / Speculation / Re: btc-e now has the biggest daily volume on: January 09, 2014, 11:15:36 AM
Anyone else find it interesting that BTCe's trade engine can handle such extraordinary volume, not just bitcoin but all the alts too, without significant lag? Hmm...


Yes, this in fact shows how badly mtgox is coded; no amount of in-memory storage can help if your system is a piece crap to begin with.

I suspect that both MtGox and Stamp have O n^2 orders matching algos - while with simple data structures like heap you can get an n log n matching. Maybe btc-e have just better programmers.
552  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: January 08, 2014, 02:42:03 PM
How deep will C cut?

Classically, significantly below 380.  Realistically? Not flipping likely.  I think you need to do the wave geometry on a logarithmically distorted chart.   The farther out the end of wave B goes, the higher the end of C ends up being.  

Now that 850 has been touched, C can commence at any time, with my full permission.  The B retracement points are 760, 688, 618, 528.  (618 would please my inner numerologist.)  568 is a point in A, so I would give it a non-zero weight.  Extension points at 242 and 188 are utterly ludicrous to me.

Regarding wallet counts, until and unless a significant proportion of addresses are generated by machines for machine use, the rate of wallet creation is roughly proportionate to the number of users.  I.e. the number of users is proportionate to the first derivative of the number of wallets,  including empty ones.


We often have triangles in bitcoin - why not this time? Why zigzag is the only option you are analyzing?
553  Economy / Speculation / btc-e now has the biggest daily volume on: January 08, 2014, 12:07:39 PM
Any speculations based on this?
554  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin price @ Mtgox and trading data makes me really curious on: January 07, 2014, 08:54:02 AM
I voted for 'stopped trading there' - but actually i did try selling a small amount there to check if maybe the withdrawing is faster now. But no cookie - nearly 2 months waiting - and no money yet, and this is PLN after they announced that they doubled the daily limits in PLN.
555  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 05, 2014, 11:02:36 AM
Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.

this. in more empirical terms, the price is still within the margin of error of the wedge shape. as i mentioned elsewhere, these shapes are drawn using data sets that often contain outliers so it's tricky drawing conclusions sometimes.

--arepo

I tend to interpret it in terms of probability, or fuzzy logic. Beside the fact that it is a probabilistic process, and that there are many exchanges with slightly different patterns and fuzzy arbitrage opportunities, treating it as binary would also be too easy to manipulate.
556  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: January 05, 2014, 09:01:05 AM
The Bitstamp wedge (bearish pattern):


Now the upper boundary slightly broken.  Not definitively - but there are many examples from the past that bearish wedges don't work in bitcoin. On the other hand the previous examples I remember are from the bullish runs and were probably the effect of new money entering the exchanges, now we are in a more bearish situation and a rally on weekend is not related to new money because there is no new money on weekends.
557  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: December 27, 2013, 09:36:39 PM
Looks like the correction down trendlines are broken:

(bitstamp)

Time for a bounce back? What do you think?
558  Economy / Service Discussion / Bitcurex down on: December 23, 2013, 02:32:59 PM
Hacked?
559  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bearish Bitfinex Sentiment Index almost 1:2 on: December 23, 2013, 07:29:57 AM
I also watch how the shorts on bitfinex grow - all this is bullish - but maybe not immediately.
560  Economy / Speculation / Re: We are at "THE" ATH on: December 22, 2013, 06:05:55 PM
There are two questions.  First is when bitcoin reaches a saturation point - does it mean that its value will now fade to 0? Dollar has reached its saturation point long ago - but it is still worth something. It all depends on how much commerce will the bitcoin universe support - without commerce, at the saturation point the value of bitcoin system as a whole will quite quickly fall down - because of the huge electricity costs. But with commerce there will be much value generated from it. Personally I am a skeptic on this one - I don't see many compelling arguments to use bitcoin in commerce. But it is for example useful for finance startups to work around the red tape - of course that can happen only as long as the regulators don't put new red tape around bitcoin. The second question is if the saturation point is now - I don't know, but I expect yet one wave - mostly fueled by financial guys trying out this new toy.
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