And if I remember correctly FBI still has around 100k from Ross, right? At this pace we are going to need a QE directly into bitcoin to pump the price. |
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how much longer until we are not in a period of time considered critical?
When bitcoin breaks ATH and enters into another big bubble. |
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More bad news for Bitcoin  "Richard Branson’s Virgin Galactic Spaceship in catastrophic explosion and crash: One pilot dead and another critical as experimental plane blows up on test flight over California"   The Spaceship you can pay with bitcoin crashes. OMG, what a year |
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In bitcoinland nothing is what it seems, and more of the times it ends at the very opposite of the majority´s expectations.
People are depositing too much faith in the ETF.
If we depend on the Winkilevos to succeed that means that we are fucked.
It's another valid scenario. They could just dump as soon as they launch their ETF, but it would not be really clever because they wouldn't make a lot of profit after all the work. If you are a big investor and you want to sell, first you do is pumping the price if possible to a new bubble were investors come alone and buy no matter how high the price is. It could be more likely with the Second Market Bitcoin Investment, they're individuals that mostly bought in the bubble over $600, and they could panic dump as soon as ETF opens. |
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But meanwhile fiat in exchanges going down. That probably means users spending bitcoins mainly through merchants and sending to exchanges to sell them. Also I think there are more users, but they're not bringing fiat, so this not going to rally to an ATH because of them. But well, at least it is creating a base of potential future investors. As usual most of them will feel the urge to invest as soon as bitcoin would be in another bubble hitting 2x ATH. |
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I just need to look at this chart to understand we are at a really dangerous point. Fiat bid sum is returning to prebubble levels, while bitcoin supply is quite higher. And it is quite scary while we are approaching to an important key level like $275. Miners and merchants are drying the exchanges, current prices are not sustainable for a long time. Fiat entries needs to be improved, plus a massive pump event to break all the resistances to bring price to ATH where it can rally again. ETF probably will do this work, but there could be delays until it is up, you know how this things works. Until that, IMO, bitcoin will keep slowly bleeding, with its ups and downs.  |
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I would seriously appreciate the bottom, need to take my life back. Please.
I hear ya. Is it just me or has anyone else been delaying things until BTC decides to go up in price again? It is a bit painful. We are perhaps a little "overinvested" right now. Sure, we can sell coins right now (not even at a loss of what we paid originally) but it is a horrible time to sell, so we wait, and wait and wait.  In the mean time, we could really use a new couch, new carpet, have a zero percent credit card that we are just delaying paying because we don't really want to sell coins and then Christmas is just around the corner. The kids really want a nice Christmas.  Hopefully we are at least back to $600 by then? I can hope anyways. Do you have a plan in case bitcoin goes below $275 and stays lower for several months or even 1-2 years? This kind of thinking of delaying and being overinvested in bitcoin is going to lead to a massive panic dump like the good old times if we go below $275. Dunno if it will break, but be careful. |
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Pero si como dice, ya no es el mismo teléfono... en fin, no se que se esperará la gente... ¿Que se transporten los datos de un teléfono a otro por ciencia infusa?
No hay que culparle mucho de esto. La gente está acostumbrada a la nube, a que lo que hagas en el sobremesa te aparezca en el móvil y viceversa. No es imposible que alguien afronte bitcoin con esa mentalidad, sin tener en cuenta que los monederos son realmente independientes. +1. Además lo de reenviar los bitcoins a una dirección de cambio debería ser opcional, no venir por defecto. Que todo el mundo se asuste la primera vez que manda una trasacción no es un buen comienzo. A mi también me pasó y no fue nada agradable. Lo mejor en estos casos es una cuenta en blockchain.info que es muchísimo más sencillo de utilizar y se puede tener en la nube. |
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en un principio, nada más aparecer bitcoin en la ETF el precio debería dispararse por las expectativas. Es exactamente igual que lo que suele ocurrir cuando una startup con mucho potencial por fin sale a la bolsa.
Estoy de acuerdo, incluyendo la coletilla "en principio" pero me parece demasiado obvio y sabemos de sobra que el mercado no es racional. Estos peces gordos bien podrían ponerse cortos… Totalmente de acuerdo, de ahí que diga "en principio"  . Y no sólo los peces gordos podrían ponerse cortos, sino que los early adopters podrían aprovechar la oportunidad y el volumen para liquidar una buena parte de sus posiciones. Cualquier cosa es posible. |
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Second Market Bitcoin Investment tiene unos ~110.000 bitcoins de sus clientes que están de camino a la ETF. Todavía requiere la aprobación de la SEC, por lo que aunque dicen que está al llegar (finales 2014-principio 2015) ya sabemos como van estas cosas y podría retrasarse bastante, nadie lo sabe.
También están los gemelos Winklevoss con ~100.000 bitcoins suyos intentando sacar una ETF. Probablemente estén en el mismo paso que los anteriores.
Hay más ETFs que también están en marcha, aunque son menos conocidas.
En mi opinión esto debería atraer muchísima más liquidez al mercado y quitar muchos miedos sobre la seguridad y la legalidad de bitcoin. Por lo en un principio, nada más aparecer bitcoin en la ETF el precio debería dispararse por las expectativas. Es exactamente igual que lo que suele ocurrir cuando una startup con mucho potencial por fin sale a la bolsa.
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Not everything is USA. Even if SEC doesn't allow a bitcoin ETF, EU or any other country could approve it.
True, and this is how Havelock and other bitcoin "stock exchanges" have been working. But the US would probably go after the foreign ETF if they sell to US citizens/residents. Again, USA is just a part of the world. Bitcoin ETF could launch legally in EU but not allowing US citizens, it doesn't matter. Volume would pick up in that ETF and it would probably lead bitcoin price. I'm speaking about a proper regulated ETF in the real stock market, not something like Havelock. Will 2k fall today?
Or 2.2k?
2.1k and then all the way down to 2k? |
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The only way ETFs never takes off is bitcoin being illegal in all the countries (impossible IMO). Big players want fast and huge returns investing in bitcoin, and that's the fastest way to achieve it. As long as you hodl real bitcoins will be fine. Of course they will be able to easily manipulate market price, but anyway you can easily do it right now if you have enough money, just look what happened yesterday.
I don't know, but the SEC presumably wants more than just "it is not illegal". AFAIK, the SEC was created after the 1929 stock market collapse to bar sale of stocks that are likely to collapse. That could harm big investors, too. So, I would guess that their approval depends on their estimate of the future of bitcoin. (And they may also consider the likelihood of the fund being goxed, perhaps.) Not everything is USA. Even if SEC doesn't allow a bitcoin ETF, EU or any other country could approve it. |
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This market would surely require SEC approval.
Personally I hope that the crypto-ETFs will never take off. Or it will end like the gold and silver paper market. The only way ETFs never takes off is bitcoin being illegal in all the countries (impossible IMO). Big players want fast and huge returns investing in bitcoin, and that's the fastest way to achieve it. As long as you hodl real bitcoins will be fine. Of course they will be able to easily manipulate market price, but anyway you can easily do it right now if you have enough money, just look what happened yesterday. |
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They also stopped withdrawals. No one is allowed to sell until their OTC ETF gets approved by the SEC.
Whoa. Is that true? A Roach Motel TM Fund? When this thread started, they had a 6-month lock-in period, but after that people were allowed to liquidate (sell the shares back to SMBIT, at the same 0.1 BTC each). EDIT: back then, clients were forbidden to trade their shares except by liquidating them at SMBIT. But SMBIT promised ALSO that there would be an open market for their shares, starting Q4/2014. That market must wait approval by the SEC. Aren't you confusing "withdrawal" (liquidation) with open market trading? I guess he is confusing terms. There is no way clients are not allowed to withdrawal if they want. Would be completely insane for customers, and more if there are any delays. If that would be true I'm sure Second Market would have warned publicly and gave some time for clients in case they wanted to cashout. I am not confusing terms. I know people in this "fund". Call or email them if you like. Per a SEC document they received, customers may not sell BIT until the ETF is approved or disapproved. Started September 23rd. Sorry then. Damn, I guess customers are ok with that, because if bitcoin hits stock market, bitcoin price should skyrocket. But still not being able to cashout until that happen, even if you are holding more than the 6 required months is weird :/
-2918 XBT yesterday. Seems a mistake, again?
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yo la verdad que lo que tengo en bitstamp no lo tengo en orden de compra, pero ahi lo tengo en espera de ver si hay buenos precios
Eso también se aplica para bitcoin, mucha gente espera a cuando sube el precio para depositar sus bitcoins (ya que es casi instantáneo) y pone las órdenes de venta. Lo preocupante es que actualmente no haya más fiat esperando en forma de orden para comprar bitcoin estando tan cerca de un punto clave como $275. |
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Algo lógico en un escenario bajista como el actual, que ya se alarga casi un año.
Eso por descontado, sin duda. Pero otros mercados más o menos mantienen una proporción y son más constantes con las órdenes en fiat, como por ejemplo BTC-E.  Bitstamp, que supongo que es el mercado que se utiliza por excelencia para hacer cashout de las plataformas de pago y probablemente también por muchos mineros, en mi opinión está secándose a un ritmo mucho más rápido de lo que debería. La conclusión a la que quiero llegar ni con el precio "bajo" actual de bitcoin se ve que esté atrayendo a nuevo dinero, no se ve una ralentización de la bajada que es lo que tocaría si estuviéramos llegando al fondo. Para conseguir un rally sostenido a estos niveles van a hacer falta nuevos mercados más importantes que sean capaces de atraer cientos de millones de forma efectiva y segura, que no dudo que tendremos en el medio plazo. Pero hasta entonces la sangría lenta y continua que llevamos (con bajadas y subidas de por medio) va a ser la tónica general, al menos a estos niveles. Además el dinero que va saliendo cada día en minería y en procesadores de pagos, es un dinero que se "evapora". En el caso de los primeros va a parar mayormente para amortizar equipo y electricidad, y en los segundos es un gasto por un producto. Por lo que al contrario que años anteriores, donde casi todo se quedaba en casa y ese dinero estaba esperando para re-comprar a precios bajos (ya que una vez te subes al carro bitcoin es difícil bajarse), ahora una parte importante de ese dinero ya no está (se ha gastado), por lo que tiene que ser sustituido a base de nuevos usuarios. |
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No me había fijado desde hacía bastante tiempo en la profundidad de los mercados. A Bitstamp nos lo están dejando seco a una velocidad que da miedo  De $25 Millones que había en Marzo a $3.5 Millones actuales. Y si no me equivoco esta es la mayor fuente de entrada de dinero en Europa y uno de los más grandes en el mundo. Sin embargo el número de bitcoins a la venta sigue subiendo (o al menos se mantiene), por lo que no es un problema de que haya perdido importancia.  Desde lo de MtGox se nota que la confianza de los usuarios en los exchanges ha bajado muchísimo. A ver si los chicos de coinffeine nos dan una alegría y sacan pronto su mercado descentralizado. Seguro que daría mucha más confianza. Y como es lógico la ETF es también un punto determinante para el precio de bitcoin. |
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They also stopped withdrawals. No one is allowed to sell until their OTC ETF gets approved by the SEC.
Whoa. Is that true? A Roach Motel TM Fund? When this thread started, they had a 6-month lock-in period, but after that people were allowed to liquidate (sell the shares back to SMBIT, at the same 0.1 BTC each). EDIT: back then, clients were forbidden to trade their shares except by liquidating them at SMBIT. But SMBIT promised ALSO that there would be an open market for their shares, starting Q4/2014. That market must wait approval by the SEC. Aren't you confusing "withdrawal" (liquidation) with open market trading? I guess he is confusing terms. There is no way clients are not allowed to withdrawal if they want. Would be completely insane for customers, and more if there are any delays. If that would be true I'm sure Second Market would have warned publicly and gave some time for clients in case they wanted to cashout. |
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This was all fake and manipulation. Look how now nothing is happening, not even 500 btc in the last hour in Bitfinex after 50k volume...
I could be wrong but this seems like a big red flag for me.
Why would you open a panic buying wall of 16k coins at $332 when it nearly was cracking? You will find the opposite reaction, people panic buying... So the whale probably did it to sell his coins.
the manipulation is REAL. Indeed! |
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This was all fake and manipulation. Look how now nothing is happening, not even 500 btc in the last hour in Bitfinex after 50k volume...
I could be wrong but this seems like a big red flag for me.
Why would you open a panic buying wall of 16k coins at $332 when it nearly was cracking? You will find the opposite reaction, people panic buying... So the whale probably did it to sell his coins.
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