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641  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 22, 2015, 07:48:26 PM
Now, here comes the question: Do you believe ALL the above happened by pure luck or coincidence? What are the odds?

Please email Armstrong. He has coded his model with a myopia that isn't detecting such statistical anomalies. Thus his myopia.

My fuzzy logic engine had worked out probabilities over years of observation, but your example is much more incisive. Kudos.

Being pretty busy with the university right now; I really want to talk to the guy but I'm not sure he will reply to me once he figures out that I may have a clue on how he makes his predictions. Besides, I'm not 100% sure he's for real. I know the Physics behind it, I know the Math, but... let's say for the sake of argument, I keep a 1% he's a part of TPTB (or he has inside info).

I promise you though, I'll ring a bell when I have the time to put together a nice letter for him. Smiley
642  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 22, 2015, 05:52:31 PM
The charade was by design:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35241

Is Armstrong starting to realize they knew all along?

I posted it yesterday on another forum, but I think it's significant enough for cross-posting :

Let's say that the Greek gov't had (phenomenally) two choices. The first one was the USA/EU camp, the other was BRICS. What do you think happened there? To have a vantage point of the situation, let me present you some more facts in the timeline.

1. The EU summit had happened where mrs Merkel first outspoken the Grexit scenario.
2. Tsipras at the time was with Putin at St. Petersburg talking about how epicly wrong mrs Merkel was.
3. Eurogroup summit - Varoufakis had been abolished.
4. Referendum - 62% vote for no austerity measures.
5. Tsipras agrees to more austerity measures and a 3rd Memorandum for Greece.

What I see by watching all these facts, is that the Greek government never had a choice. Putin has offered something pro bono (the pipe) in exchange for Greece's friendship (and for being the middleman) towards the EU (Greece's veto for Ukraine was a nice gift). Everybody knows that he needs the EU because of their enormous energy needs. He has the gas, he needs clients. Fortifying his stance against the EU by taking Greece with him, would've been utterly wrong and he knew it.

China on the other hand would've been a nice alternative. Now, please take some time to judge what happened in China and PRECISELY WHEN! 25 Greek debts were eliminated in their stock exchange. Turkey (!) offered to buy the Greek debt too. Funnily enough, they can't form a government and today they had a suicide attack within their territory with 25 dead.

Now, here comes the question: Do you believe ALL the above happened by pure luck or coincidence? What are the odds?
643  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 22, 2015, 03:59:23 PM
Meanwhile in China:

[...] "China Dumps Record $143 Billion In US Treasurys In Three Months Via Belgium", and frankly we have been surprised that this extremely important topic has not gotten broader attention.

Then, to our relief, first JPM noticed. This is what Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, author of Flows and Liquidity had to say on the topic of China's dramatic reserve liquidation

Looking at China more specifically, it appears that, after adjusting for currency changes, Chinese FX reserves were depleted for a fourth straight quarter by around $50bn in Q2. The cumulative reserve depletion between Q3 2014 and Q2 2015 is $160bn after adjusting for currency changes. At the same time, a current account surplus in Q2 combined with a drawdown in reserves suggests that capital outflows from China continued for the fifth straight quarter. Assuming a current account surplus in Q2 of around $92bn, i.e. $16bn higher than in Q1 due to higher merchandise trade surplus, we estimate that around $142bn of capital left China in Q2, similar to the previous quarter. [...]


Really? I mean REALLY?!?!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/chinas-record-dumping-us-treasuries-leaves-goldman-speechless
644  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 22, 2015, 08:51:04 AM
My hunch is that Greece screws (or tries to) Europe/Germany first.  The big question would be: WWFD? *
* What would FRANCE do?
You are wrong. The entire charade (including Russia and China) is being controlled by the banksters.
It is a scripted circus. There is no sovereignty. They own you.

I could not agree more. Here's a nice article from zerohedge I've read last night.

Quote
Greek Prime Minister Asked Putin For $10 Billion To "Print Drachmas", Greek Media Reports
Back in January, when we reported what the very first official act of open European defiance by the then-brand new Greek prime minister Tsipras was (as a reminder it was his visit of a local rifle range where Nazis executed 200 Greeks on May 1, 1944) we noted that this was the start of a clear Greek pivot away from Europe and toward Russia.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-21/tsipras-asked-putin-10-billion-print-drachmas-greek-media-reports

This pretty much concludes to what I had in mind all this time (and pretty much agree with you TPTB_need_war). That Putin is in the same game with the rest of the "gang". Well... it's crystal clear:

If confirmed, first and foremost look for a growing schism between Europe and the US (which has clearly been pushing Merkel's buttons via the IMF's ever louder demands for a debt haircut not to mention Jack Lew's rather direct intervention in the Greek bailout negotiations) and an increasing sense of friendly proximity between Berlin (and Brussels) and Moscow.

The biggest loser in this game of realpolitik, once again, are the ordinary Greek people.
645  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 21, 2015, 10:11:16 PM
I was about to say that Gold did worse than BTC, then I looked at the scale.




There's still time until $279... Don't worry. Yeah; one can only hope. Smiley
646  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 21, 2015, 09:54:15 PM
looks like gold vs USD spot

basically spot gold price in USD vs USD relative to world's currencies

I hate those charts because the scales are always manipulated into confirmation bias.



Here's a far better chart:



IMHO, down we go. Next stop ~$700.

Live Chart:
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-price-chart.do
647  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 21, 2015, 09:45:39 PM
It seems we're heading for a new Gold low; I keep hearing that the next leg will stand little above $700. TPTB_need_war predicts we should be heading for a new BTC dump sooner than later (provided that Armstrong predictions are in line with BTC/Gold entanglement) and after October 1 (2015.75) the new rally for both assets will begin.

I dare to predict that this won't happen. TPTB are heading towards a far more important goal and that's beating the economic meltdown. What I find extremely interesting among Armstrong's latest posts is this article:

Quote
Germany Replacing Bank Cards and Eliminating Cash Withdrawals
The game is afoot to eliminate CASH. According to reliable sources, Maestro is seriously under attack. In Germany, Maestro was a multi-national debit card service owned by MasterCard and founded in 1992. Maestro cards obtained from associate banks and can be linked to the cardholder’s current account, or they can be used as prepaid cards. Already we see the cancellation of such cards and the issuing of new debit cards. Why? The new cards cannot be used at an ATM outside of Germany to obtain cash. Any attempt to get cash can only be an advance on a credit card.

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35194

I wrote it on another thread as well, I don't think they will make it. Time is running short. Tick Tock...
648  Other / Meta / Re: "THE LIST" on: July 19, 2015, 08:59:07 PM
Please update your lists.

Latest additions to The List as of 2015-07-19:
Quote
huffington
panic_time!
sayitagain
649  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 18, 2015, 07:43:05 PM
Have you sold any Bitcoins to Greeks through local Bitcoins yet? They were selling for way above the market rate last week but I haven't heard how much they are selling for since the Grexit fears subsided. Somebody from Greece quoted a very high figure last week and I'm interested in hearing if it's still the same.

This looks like a bargain for spending some bitcoin in Greece.  I wonder if they will take bitcoin?

http://www.privateislandsonline.com/islands/isle-of-gaia



Name:   Isle of Gaia
Region:   Greece, Europe
Location:   Echinades Group, Ionian Sea
Development:   Partially Developed
Title:   Freehold
Type:   Private Island
Price:   USD 4,637,438 convert
Status:   For Sale
Size:   43.00 Acres / 17.40 HA

I'm sure you can arrange something if you have the lot. I heard that quite many want some piece this time of year:
Warren Buffett: http://en.protothema.gr/warren-buffet-buys-greek-island/
Johnny Depp: http://www.pappaspost.com/johnny-depp-greek-island/

BTW: There's a parallel currency project in Agistri Island:  Grin

http://en.protothema.gr/agistri-island-tests-the-waters-starts-using-parallel-currency/
650  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 18, 2015, 10:21:13 AM
Off to the beach. If bitcoin could moon that would be pleasing.

 Grin

Edit: Woman taking her time. How long do you guys reckon before gemini, the ETF? Will they happen before halving? Is there a timeline for gox coins return?

Hello buddy! Enjoying Greece?  Wink
651  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 18, 2015, 10:19:56 AM
Amazing that people still buy LTC  Cheesy

This may be due to a pre-pump of BTC. It has happened many times before (last one included) and LTC was the vessel. I really want to see if this will repeat itself one more time. It would've been awesome! Smiley

GO LTC! Tongue
652  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] KRAKEN.COM - Exchange Now Open with USD, EUR, BTC, LTC, XRP, NMC, XDG on: July 17, 2015, 10:16:29 AM
macsga - I'm afraid I don't really have any information about the things you ask. Capital controls are part of the legacy banking system and I'm not aware of any legitimate ways to circumvent them. Services like localbitcoins may indeed be your best option right now. I believe you would be taxed according to the tax policies in Greece, but as you say there are no BTC-specific policies in place yet. I've been into bitcoin for so long now it doesn't feel like early days, but it still is. Still waiting for the rest of the world to catch-up.  Wink

Working at a company that promotes BTC now is like having a huge amount of land in Saudi Arabia before the Oil pumps were installed. What the people need is more flexible ways to use BTC than anything else. Ideas like a BTC-loaded visa for instance would've been a great alternative for occasions like the one we're experiencing in Greece right now.

FWIW, I think that what happened in Greece won't stop here. Mark my words, this is only the beginning; and the people who are smart enough to comply with it and provide alternatives will -most possibly- become the pioneers of the future economic system. As a theoretical physicist, I only can talk theoretically, but believe me, if you at Kraken invest into something like that, you will not regret it.
653  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] KRAKEN.COM - Exchange Now Open with USD, EUR, BTC, LTC, XRP, NMC, XDG on: July 16, 2015, 11:59:38 PM
Dargo I need to ask a couple of questions. I know that if someone like me lives in Greece now and wants to withdraw an amount from you to their bank account here, it's virtually impossible since we're on Capital Controls. First of, is there a way to overcome this (and still being legal)? Second, in case I want to sell a big amount of BTC (ie: more than 10,000EUR equivalent) how this will be taxed (I mean will the income be taxed there or here in Greece)? Am I even obliged to income taxes since I mined for them?

Thanks in advance for your answer.

You would need to check this in greece since there you would need to pay taxes. I cant tell how its dealt in greece but when you mined it then normally it will be hard to proove your expenses to put against the profit.

And yes, every additional value you create should be taxable. Though its best to find out which lawyer or tax advisor knows about bitcoin in greece. Then ask him about it.

And cant you exchange btc to fiat in greece? No localbitcoins or so or are the fees now exorbitant? Maybe only withdraw what you need. I guess you want it because of the capital controls?

It's more of a theoretical question actually. I don't really need to sell any of my stash now (probably not until many years from now). I'm asking because of the SEPA transfers from FIDOR to any bank here in Greece is now "closed" or - being processed after central authorisation. In any case, there's no taxable policy for BTCs in Greece (it's still very very new here).

I guess the best policy (in case of emergency) is to liquidate some on localbitcoins - but I wanted to see if there's an alternative during this harsh period of time.
654  Economy / Economics / Re: Grexit on: July 16, 2015, 07:00:13 PM
Zerohedge presents a nice POV of mr D. McWilliams. I'm not afraid to admit, I concur in all aspects.

‘Plan B’ Needed As Euro One Recession Away From Implosion - David McWilliams

- Euro is one recession away from implosion - David McWilliams
- Mismanagement of euro “both laughable and terrifying”
- “When economic negotiations stop making economic sense, you should begin to question the motives of the EU”
- Germany is out of control
- Successful British exit will be model for other countries
- Euro membership is now conditional
- “Countries that don't play ball with Germany will see their banking system used against their democratically elected politicians”
- Investors and savers need “PLAN B”

Europe’s next recession will “kill the euro” according to economist, writer and journalist David McWilliams.


Full article here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-16/%E2%80%98plan-b%E2%80%99-needed-euro-one-recession-away-implosion-david-mcwilliams
655  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 16, 2015, 04:14:32 PM
Really have to wonder by reading all the above, how on Earth this morpheme of "United States of Europe" will form; and if it does, will it even be sustainable?
656  Other / Meta / Re: "THE LIST" on: July 16, 2015, 03:49:39 PM
Thanks @ --encrypted-- for the headsup. Please update your lists.

Latest additions to The List as of 2015-07-16:
Quote
EvugBo
2doorsdown
cholered
657  Economy / Economics / Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion on: July 15, 2015, 01:02:32 PM

Half way through reading this, and it is shocking stuff. Validates a lot of what MA has been saying about the political elite. Downright shocking if what Varoufakis says is true, and I don't have any reason to disbelieve the guy.

The best part is this one:

What is the greatest problem with the general way the Eurogroup functions?

YV: [To exemplify…] There was a moment when the President of the Eurogroup decided to move against us and effectively shut us out, and made it known that Greece was essentially on its way out of the Eurozone. … There is a convention that communiqués must be unanimous, and the President can’t just convene a meeting of the Eurozone and exclude a member state. And he said, “Oh I’m sure I can do that.” So I asked for a legal opinion. It created a bit of a kerfuffle. For about 5-10 minutes the meeting stopped, clerks, officials were talking to one another, on their phone, and eventually some official, some legal expert addressed me, and said the following words, that “Well, the Eurogroup does not exist in law, there is no treaty which has convened this group.”

So what we have is a non-existent group that has the greatest power to determine the lives of Europeans. It’s not answerable to anyone, given it doesn’t exist in law; no minutes are kept; and it’s confidential. So no citizen ever knows what is said within. … These are decisions of almost life and death, and no member has to answer to anybody.


PS: I know the guy, he's for real. Sad
658  Economy / Exchanges / Re: [ANN] KRAKEN.COM - Exchange Now Open with USD, EUR, BTC, LTC, XRP, NMC, XDG on: July 15, 2015, 05:05:24 AM
Dargo I need to ask a couple of questions. I know that if someone like me lives in Greece now and wants to withdraw an amount from you to their bank account here, it's virtually impossible since we're on Capital Controls. First of, is there a way to overcome this (and still being legal)? Second, in case I want to sell a big amount of BTC (ie: more than 10,000EUR equivalent) how this will be taxed (I mean will the income be taxed there or here in Greece)? Am I even obliged to income taxes since I mined for them?

Thanks in advance for your answer.
659  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 15, 2015, 04:54:20 AM
[...]
Sry, back to my gifs.



CCMF!!!


I'm Ok with gifs.


R3KT captured on tape... Grin Did the door open again or he had to hit his Willy to every concrete wall during his trip home? Tongue
660  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: July 14, 2015, 07:50:31 PM
A Greece deal has reached.

Selling is the best option for now

IMF warned that Greece needs deeper debt relief. Not over yet.

Agree; we're FAR from a "deal". A portion of SYRIZA has revolted against the austerity package and they refuse to vote for it; if that happens elections it is sooner than later. AFAIC the viability of the debt... let me say it out loud:

HA

HA

HA! Grin

What is the overall sentiment now? It seems like Greece is between a rock and a hard place with equally foul tasting poisons. The medicine as bad as the sickness. Is there any real choice? Is it so critical to stay in the EU that they should cede island ownership and assets? My understanding is that even if Greek left the EU, the creditors would still take the gold and everything else. Cursed every which way but up as they say. Thoughts? Just wondering, thanks.  Crappy times.

Re; Putin; Very suggestive statements. Using a blockchain  for citizen identification, namecoin? to prevent ID fraud. It seems as if a cryptoeconomist has his ear. More forward thinking than I would have thought. Interesting approach in light of being plagued by various extremist groups. Interesting.

In Greece atm. No obvious discontent among the people at all. I have seen lines at most ATM's but that is all.

This process between the eurogroup and Greece certainly is not a democratic process. A clear NO vote with 60% of population and then a week later the PM takes a deal to increase the debt further. The debt wasn't payable when it was 120bn euros, a further 250bn euros of 'bailout' made it impossible for them to service even the interest payments and therefore a further 50 bn is simply extend and pretend gone mad.

If it shows anything, it is that fiat currency and it's creation is a massive joke.


No matter the outcome, there are certain facts that no one can deny.
For instance:

Greece must pay to the European Central Bank € 3,5 billion next Monday, but because the IMF is superior to all other lenders, Athens must return to the IMF before the payment to the ECB - which means that the Greece has to find around € 7 billion by Monday. Another amount of € 5 billion is necessary in August to cover similar bills.

About half of the € 7 billion owed by the country on Monday can be paid from the profits of Greek bonds held by the ECB, the profits promised in Athens as part of a second bailout deal in 2012. But the authorities of the eurozone struggle to find the balance of cash quickly.

I do not personally think that the money will be found.
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